It appears that it could be a very close race for #1 between two movies headed for slightly over $20 million. Aimed at very different audiences, both Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules and Sucker Punch have very few reviews on rottentomatoes.com, a sign that the films are being hidden and not that solid creatively. Based on a very low number of reviews, Diary has a soft 38% positive rating score, while Sucker has a weak 22%. Films with such scores can have difficulty holding the audience in week two and beyond. (See Mitch Salem's review of Sucker Punch here.) In any case, both movies should open decently. Look for Sucker Punch to win Friday night but have a soft weekend multiplier. The second Diary should surge ahead Saturday and Sunday to challenge for the weekend. New Films Critics Opening Domestic
Positive Weekend Ultimate
Sucker Punch WB PG13 22% $22 $50
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: FOX PG 38% $21.5 $59
Rodrick Rules
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
The first Diary of a Wimpy Kid (released 3.19.2010) opened with $22.1 million on its way to $63.7 million domestic. The film had virtually no international appeal ($4 million overseas).
Limitless (Relativity) should sneak into the #3 slot with almost $11 million and a 43% decline. The durable Rango (Paramount) should drop a puny 35% to $10 million. Dropping 36%, The Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate) is headed for $8.5 million. Universal's Paul (down 48%) and Sony's Battle: Los Angeles (down 54%) will fight for sixth place with $6.5-7 million each.
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $116 million, ranking 30th of 52 weeks. Last weekend has averaged $108 million (ranked 33rd), and next weekend has averaged $127 million (ranking 22nd).
This Weekend the Last Two Years
The forecast model was very accurate for three out of the five films opening this weekend the last two years, while Hot Tub Time Machine was over-estimated and Haunting in Connecticut was under-estimated. The portion of the model that projects the ultimate domestic gross was extremely accurate for the three non-DreamWorks movies, while the animated movies proved to have more playability than projected.
3/26/10
How to Train Your Dragon (Par/DW) Opening Weekend Forecast $44; Actual: $44 Final estimate (week 2): $175. Actual Final: $217. International: $275
Hot Tub Time Machine (MGM) Opening Weekend Forecast $21; Actual: $14
Final estimate (week 2): $50. Actual Final: $50. International: $12
Final estimate (week 2): $50. Actual Final: $50. International: $12
3/27/2009
Monsters vs Aliens (Par/DW) Opening Weekend Forecast $56; Actual: $59 Final estimate (week 2): $183. Actual Final: $198. International: $182 Haunting in Connecticut (LG) Opening Weekend Forecast $14; Actual: $23 Final estimate (week 2): $53. Actual Final: $55. International: $19
12 Rounds (Fox) Opening Weekend Forecast $7; Actual: $5
Final estimate (week 2): $11. Actual Final: $12. International: $5
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform, and tomorrow we will have the Thursday box office results.
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform, and tomorrow we will have the Thursday box office results.
--Mitch Metcalf
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