FULL WEEK ANALYSIS: Actually Up Versus Prior Years

Over the past few days we have been looking at how the weekend compares to the past four-year average.  Although Monday-Thursday numbers are significantly lower than the weekend's generally, the midweek numbers still count and can have a real impact on the box office.  For example, while the 3/18-20 weekend was down 4% from prior years, the full week 3/14-20 was actually up 2% from the comparable week the past four years.  In fact, the most recent week is only one of three weeks (out of 11) in which the full-week declines were more positive than the weekend-only declines. 

The table below summarizes each week of the year so far with the average weekly volume for all movies the last four years, the results for 2011, the percent difference for the week, the percent difference when only the weekend is included, and an index comparing the weekly and weekend-only percent declines.  Clearly, the abundance of red in the index column indicates most weeks this year (eight of 11) are worse when the midweek period is factored in. 


Full Week      2007-10    2011    Percent (Weekend    Week vs
Box Office     Average   Actual    Diff.   % Diff.)  Wknd Index
Week 1 (1/9)     $178     $161     -10%     (-18%)     + 8
Week 2 (1/16)    $190     $157     -17%     (-12%)     - 5
Week 3 (1/23)    $195     $146     -25%     (-24%)     - 1
Week 4 (1/30)    $153     $128     -17%     (- 4%)     -13
Week 5 (2/6)     $148     $103     -30%     (-29%)     - 1
Week 6 (2/13)    $202     $165     -18%     (-12%)     - 6
Week 7 (2/20)    $176     $180     + 2%     (+20%)     -18
Week 8 (2/27)    $123     $155     +25%     (+ 1%)     +24
Week 9 (3/6)     $155     $141     -10%     (- 6%)     - 4
Week 10 (3/13)   $148     $147     - 0%     (+ 8%)     - 8
Week 11 (3/20)   $149     $151     + 2%     (- 4%)     + 6

How to read: The first full week of the year between 2007 and 2010 averages $178 million for all movies.  The first week of 2011 (1/3-1/9) was $161 million, down 10% from the average.  Looking only at the first weekend, 1/7-1/9 was down 18%.  The +8 index indicates the full week decline is eight points better than the weekend-only decline.

As we have said before, we cannot declare the box office slump over.  A 2% increase over past averages does not indicate box office health.  But the modest uptick confirms that the last five weeks have basically moved in a sideways direction, following the severe, consistent declines of the first six weeks of the year.  The real question is what happens the next six weeks.  Are multiple double-digit percent increases on the horizon as Hollywood tunes up for the summer season?  Come back as the story unfolds, and check back later this morning for Monday box office results.