Compared to the ShowbuzzDaily Forecasts (which called for a tie between the movies opening this weekend), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules slightly exceeded the forecast and Sucker Punch slightly missed the forecast (turning the tie into a $5 million victory for Diary). In their second week, Limitless and Lincoln Lawyer both exceeded their forecasts, declining 20% or less from their opening weekend numbers. Weekend actuals were generally in line with Studio Estimates, with most movies within a few hundred thousand dollars of the estimate.
March 25-27, 2010 Showbuzz Studio Weekend
Forecast Estimate Actual
Diary Wimpy Kid 2(Fox) $21.5 $24.4 $23.8
Sucker Punch (WB) $22 $19.0 $19.1
Limitless (Rel) $11 $15.2 $15.1
Lincoln Lawyer (LG) $8.5 $11.0 $10.8
Rango (Par) $10 $ 9.8 $ 9.8
Battle: LA (Sony) $7 $ 7.6 $ 7.6
Paul (Uni) $7 $ 7.5 $ 7.9
Top 7 Total $87 $94.5 $94.1
In limited release, Miral opened with an average $16,561 at 4 theaters, Potiche opened with $12,143 at 7 theaters, My Perestroika opened with $17,680 at 1 theater, and Mia and the Migoo opened with $16,975 at 1 theater. All solid but not extraordinary numbers.
So where are we versus previous years? All films playing between March 21 and 27 grossed $148 million, down 4% from the 2007-10 average for the comparable week and down only 2% from the same week in 2010. Year to date, all films are down 7% from the comparable four-year average but still down a jaw-dropping 20% from 2010's box office numbers (propelled of course by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland).
(millions) 2010 Avg 2011 Avg 2010
Week #12 $151 $154 $148 - 4% - 2%
Year to Date $2639 $2293 $2124 - 7% -20%
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