Before turning to the predictions for the returning movies, we want to point out a new feature, Showbuzz Basics. You'll find a list of frequently-used terms and jargon (that we sometimes take for granted), as well as some helpful rules of thumb in box office analysis.
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
Positive Weekend Ultimate
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Hop Uni PG 26% $24.5 $62
Source Code Summit PG13 93% $15 $47
Insidious FilmDis PG13 71% $10.5 $29
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules should have a fairly normal second weekend decline and should lead the returning films, probably finishing in third place overall. Limitless and Lincoln Lawyer should continue to have better than average weekend declines for returning films.
Returning Films Change Opening Domestic
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 Fox -52% $11.5 $73
Limitless Rel -33% $10 $83
Lincoln Lawyer LG -27% $8 $61
Sucker Punch WB -61% $7.5 $41
Rango Par -37% $6 $129
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $127 million total, ranking 22nd of 52 weeks. But the last two years have been much higher during this weekend: $169 million April 2-4, 2010 and $149 million April 3-5, 2009. This weekend is looking very soft: something in the $110 million range.
This Weekend the Last Two Years
The forecast model was within a few million dollars for four out of the five films opening this weekend the last two years, while Fast & Furious was vastly under-estimated. The portion of the model that projects the ultimate domestic gross was a bit high for four of five films and has since been adjusted. Notice the very strong international appeal of Clash of the Titans and to a lesser extent Fast & Furious. The other films were much tougher sells overseas.
4.2.2010
Clash of the Titans (WB) Opening Weekend Forecast $65; Actual: $61
Final estimate (week 2): $170. Actual Final: $163. International: $330
Final estimate (week 2): $170. Actual Final: $163. International: $330
Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too (LG) Opening Weekend Forecast $25; Actual: $29
Final estimate (week 2): $72. Actual Final: $60. International: $1
The Last Song (DIS) Opening Weekend Forecast $19; Actual: $16
Final estimate (week 2): $72. Actual Final: $60. International: $1
The Last Song (DIS) Opening Weekend Forecast $19; Actual: $16
Final estimate (week 2): $64. Actual Final: $63. International: $26
4.3.2009
4.3.2009
Fast & Furious (UNI) Opening Weekend Forecast $46; Actual: $71
Final estimate (week 2): $172. Actual Final: $155. International: $188
Final estimate (week 2): $172. Actual Final: $155. International: $188
Adventureland (MIR) Opening Weekend Forecast $9; Actual: $6
Final estimate (week 2): $24. Actual Final: $16. International: $1
Final estimate (week 2): $24. Actual Final: $16. International: $1
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday late morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday's actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers.
--Mitch Metcalf
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