What a catastrophe at the box office this weekend. No film above $20 million for the weekend, and the top 12 films are down a staggering 37% from the same weekend last year (when Jackass 3-D opened to $50 million). Footloose, The Thing and especially The Big Year missed their forecasts. The Big Year is a particular embarrassment for Steve Martin and Owen Wilson.Footloose is below its modest forecast ($5.4 million Friday for an expected $15 million this weekend versus a forecast of $18 million). The remake of the Kevin Bacon film is headed for $49 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday. Critics nonetheless have been supportive (73% positive at RottenTomatoes).
The Thing is also missing its forecast ($3.2 million Friday for an estimated $8.7 million opening weekend, compared to a $12 million prediction). The prequel to the John Carpenter original is on track for maybe $18 million in North America. Critics nationwide have been negative (34% positive at RottenTomatoes).
The Big Year is opening way below forecast ($1.1 million Friday for an estimated $3.4 million opening weekend, compared to a $7.5 million prediction). The Jack Black-Steve Martin-Owen Wilson comedy is on track for $7 million in North America. Critics nationwide aren't laughing (39% positive at RottenTomatoes).
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
October 14-16, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
Footloose (Par) [$18.0] $15.0 $ 5.4 $ 49
Real Steel (DW/DIS) [$16.0] $14.9 $ 4.5 $ 88
The Thing (Uni) [$12.0] $ 8.7 $ 3.2 $ 18
Ides of March (Sony) [$ 6.5] $ 7.3 $ 2.3 $ 44
Dolphin Tale (WB) [$ 6.5] $ 6.4 $ 1.7 $ 76
Moneyball (Sony) [$ 5.0] $ 5.4 $ 1.7 $ 72
50/50 (Summit) [$ 3.7] $ 4.2 $ 1.4 $ 37
The Big Year (Fox) [$ 7.5] $ 3.4 $ 1.1 $ 7
Courageous (Sony) [$ 3.0] $ 3.3 $ 1.0 $ 26
Lion King in 3D (Dis) [$ 2.6] $ 2.5 $ 0.7 $102
Dream House (Uni) [$ 2.3] $ 2.4 $ 0.7 $ 20
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a disastrous $76 million total, down an incredible 37% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Jackass 3-D and Red opened) and down 26% from the average number for the same weekend the last four years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #41
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $ 76 Footloose $15, The Thing $9, The Big Year $3
2010 $120 Jackass 3-D $50, Red $22
2009 $128 Where Wild Things Are $33, Paranormal Activity $20,
Law Abiding Citizen $21, The Stepfather $12
2008 $ 85 Max Payne $18, W $10.5, Secret Life Bees $10.5
2007 $ 79 30 Days of Night $16, Gone Baby Gone $5.6
2007-10
Avg $103
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Paranormal Activity 3 from Paramount, The Three Musketeers from Summit, Johnny English Reborn from Universal (action comedy starring Rowan Atkinson) and The Mighty Macs from Freestyle (sports drama starring David Boreanaz and Carla Gugino). Those movies will be compared to Paranormal Activity 2 ($40.7 million opening weekend) and Hereafter ($12.0 million).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
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