Paranormal Activity 3 blew past its forecast ($25.7 million Friday for an expected $51.9 million this weekend versus a forecast of $41.5 million). The third in the fright-filled series is headed for $110 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday. Critics have been supportive (72% positive at RottenTomatoes). Read Mitch Salem's review.
The Three Musketeers is missing its forecast ($2.9 million Friday for an estimated $8.3 million opening weekend, compared to a $12 million prediction). The completely unnecessary and unwanted re-telling of the classic tale is headed for $19 million in North America. Critics nationwide have been quite negative (only 25% positive at RottenTomatoes). Read Mitch Salem's review.
Johnny English Reborn is failing to hit a pathetically low forecast ($1.1 million Friday for an estimated $3.8 million opening weekend, compared to a $5.5 million prediction). The Rowan Atkinson comedy is on track for $8 million in North America. Tomorrow's International Report will show there is a market for Atkinson outside the United States, but not here. And yet Universal insists on trying to share him with the domestic market, Russell Brand-style. Thankfully, critics nationwide aren't cheering (38% positive at RottenTomatoes).
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
October 21-23, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$41.5] $51.9 $25.7 $110
Real Steel (DW/DIS) [$10.3] $11.2 $ 3.1 $ 94+
Footloose (Par) [$ 9.0] $10.9 $ 3.6 $ 61+
Three Musketeers (Summit)[$12.0] $ 8.3 $ 2.9 $ 19
Ides of March (Sony) [$ 5.0] $ 4.7 $ 1.5 $ 42
Dolphin Tale (WB) [$ 4.5] $ 4.7 $ 1.2 $ 77
Moneyball (Sony) [$ 3.7] $ 4.3 $ 1.3 $ 76+
Johnny English Reborn Uni[$ 5.5] $ 3.8 $ 1.1 $ 8
The Thing (Uni) [$ 3.5] $ 3.2 $ 1.0 $ 16
50/50 (Summit) [$ 2.9] $ 2.9 $ 0.9 $ 36
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an okay $110 million total, down 8% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Paranormal Activity 2 opened) but up 2% from the average number for the same weekend the last four years. Outside of Paranormal Activity 3 there just isn't much going on theaters to pump up business.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #42
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $110 Paranormal Activity 3 $52, Three Musketeers $8,
Johnny English Reborn $4
2010 $120 Paranormal Activity 2 $41, Hereafter $12
2009 $106 Saw VI $14, Astro Boy $7, Cirque Du Freak $6
2008 $120 HS Musical 3 $42, Saw V $30, Pride & Glory $6
2007 $ 85 Saw IV $32, Dan in Real Life $12
2007-10
Avg $108
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Puss in Boots from DreamWorks/ Paramount, In Time from Fox (sci-fi thriller starring Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried), and The Rum Diary from FilmDistrict (adventure starring Johnny Depp and Aaron Eckhart). Those movies will be compared to Saw 3D ($22.5 million opening weekend).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
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