Opening at more than 3,000 theaters in North America by Paramount, Paranormal Activity 3 should average a very good $13,900 per theater (for $41.5 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Paranormal Activity 3 has received mostly favorable reviews, with 89% positive at RottenTomatoes. This horror/suspense film should be on track for around $97 million in North America when it leaves theaters. For comparison, Paranormal Activity 2 opened with $40.7 million on its way to $84.7 million. Paranormal Activity opened with $19.6 million on its way to $107.9 million.
At about 3,000 theaters, The Three Musketeers from Summit should average a soft $3,900 per theater (for $12 million this weekend). The period action film has a poor 28% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. This movie is probably headed for around $29 million domestically.
At only about 1,500 theaters, Johnny English Reborn distributed by Universal should average a weak $3,700 per theater (for $5.5 million this weekend). The Rowan Atkinson comedy (oh, goodie, yet another one!) has only 40% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes currently. This movie is probably headed for around $14 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
October 21-23 Positive Weekend Total*
Paranormal Activity 3 Par R 89% $41.5 $ 97
The Three Musketeers Summit PG13 28% $12.0 $ 29
Johnny English Reborn Uni PG 40% $ 5.5 $ 14
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The third weekend of Real Steel should be the strongest holdover film this weekend (at a modest $10.3 million), followed closely by the second weekend of Footloose.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
October 21-23 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Real Steel Sony -37% $10.3 $ 95
Footloose Par -42% $ 9.0 $ 50
Ides of March DW/DIS -32% $ 5.0 $ 43
Dolphin Tale WB -29% $ 4.5 $ 75
Moneyball Sony -32% $ 3.7 $ 72
The Thing Uni -60% $ 3.5 $ 17
50/50 Summit -32% $ 2.9 $ 37
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $108 million total, ranking 34th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $120 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $106 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $103 million, down a significant 14% from this weekend last year but down only 5% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10/22/10
Paranormal Activity 2 PAR R
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $30 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $103 Actual: $85
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $92
Hereafter WB PG13 Matt Damon Bryce Dallas Howard
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $38 Actual: $33
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $72
10/23/09
Saw VI LG R
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $27 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33 Actual: $28
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $34
Astro Boy SUMMIT
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $19 Actual: $19
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $19
Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant UNI PG13 John C Reilly Ken Watanabe
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $16 Actual: $14
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
Amelia FOX PG Hilary Swank Ewan McGregor
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $5 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $12 Actual: $14
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
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