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IS THE SLUMP OVER?: This Weekend Last Year

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The box office slump early in the year appears to have lessened the last few weeks.  The first six weeks of the year were truly awful – six straight weekends below the comparable weekend averages for the top 12 films the last four years (looking at four years smoothes out any excessively low or high weekends like Avatar or Alice in Wonderland frames).  The first six weekends of the year: 


  • Jan 7-9 $99 million -18%
  • Jan 14-16 $115 million -12%
  • Jan 21-23 $89 million -24%
  • Jan 28-30 $92 million -4%
  • Feb 4-6 $73 million -29%
  • Feb 11-13 $135 million -12% 

And then, thankfully, the weekend of Feb 18-20 came with $130 million +20% (three movies were above or near $20 million for the weekend: the openings of Unknown and I Am Number Four and the second weekend of Gnomeo & Juliet).  The next three weeks had mixed results:
  • Feb 23-25 $95 million +1%
  • Mar 2-4 $121 million -6% 
  • Mar 11-13 $135 million +8%

So where do we go from here?  The past is not a reliable guide.  Only the quality – or more precisely the entertainment value – of the upcoming movies will determine the fate of the box office.  The number to beat this weekend is $108 million.  Stay tuned throughout the weekend to see whether this weekend is marked red or green.

The 11th weekend of the year is ranked 33rd (out of 52) in total box office volume.  Last week is ranked 31st and next week is ranked 30th. 

To give some context, here is how the movies released the last two years performed in terms of opening weekend prediction and final estimate of total domestic gross.

3/19/10
The Bounty Hunter (Sony) Opening Weekend Forecast $22; Actual: $21.
Final estimate (week 2): $62. Actual Final: $67. International: $69

Diary of a Wimpy Kid (Fox) Opening Weekend Forecast $17; Actual: $22.
Final estimate (week 2): $57. Actual Final: $64. International: $4

Repo Men (Universal) Opening Weekend Forecast $10; Actual: $6.
Final estimate (week 2): $15. Actual Final: $14. International: $4

3/20/09
I Love You, Man (Paramount) Opening Weekend Forecast $20; Actual: $18.
Final estimate (week 2): $74. Actual Final: $71. International: $20

Knowing (Summit) Opening Weekend Forecast $17; Actual: $25.
Final estimate (week 2): $79. Actual Final: $80. International: $96

Duplicity (Universal) Opening Weekend Forecast $15; Actual: $14.
Final estimate (week 2): $46. Actual Final: $41. International: $38

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