WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 9-11

The tenth weekend of the year should generate about $122 million for the top 12 films, a slightly better than normal weekend for the second weekend in March -- up 4% from last year's comparable weekend and up 10% from the four-year average for this weekend.  John Carter will be the top opener, but it should be far behind the second weekend of The Lorax, which has a firm grip on first place.  As for the other openers, Silent House should open with a quiet $10 million, while Eddie Murphy's A Thousand Words should bomb with less than $5 million.   



Opening at over 3,500 theaters, John Carter from Disney should average a slightly-above-average $7,500 per theater (for $26.0 million Friday-Sunday), putting this very expensive movie on a solid pace to lose a lot of money.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 60% positive, a decent score for a science-fiction/ adventure film and suggesting the film could drop closer to 50% instead of 65% in its second weekend.  But a decent hold does no good if the film's opening weekend base is only $26 million.  John Carter is on track for a preliminary $65 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,100 theaters, Silent House from Open Road Films should average an unspectacular $4,800 per theater ($10.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Early reviews for this horror film written, produced and co-directed by Laura Lau are also currently 60% positive.  Silent House is headed for a total domestic gross of $27 million. 

Opening in around 1,500 theaters, A Thousand Words from Paramount should average a stillborn $3,000 per theater ($4.5 million Friday-Sunday).  No reviews yet for this comedy-drama starring almost-Oscar host Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words is headed for a total domestic gross of $9 million and an early exit from theaters. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 9-11                       Positive   Weekend   Total*

John Carter             Dis  PG13  59%      $26.0     $ 65
Silent House            Open R     60%      $10.0     $ 27
A Thousand Words        Par  PG13  n/a      $ 4.5     $  9


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The Lorax will reign supreme in its second weekend, down a better-than-average 41% to $41 million this weekend.  The real race in the irrelevant (but still fun to watch) weekend standings is for third place between Silent House and Project X.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 9-11                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
The Lorax                Uni      -41%      $41.0     $230
Project X                WB       -51%      $10.5     $ 68
Act of Valor             Rel      -45%      $ 7.5     $ 77
Safe House               Uni      -37%      $ 4.7     $129
Journey 2                WB       -41%      $ 3.9     $102

The Vow                  Sony     -40%      $ 3.6     $130
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -49%      $ 3.5     $ 39
This Means War           Fox      -37%      $ 3.5     $ 51


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $118 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $136 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $122 million, up 4% from this weekend last year and up 10% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years