Movie Box Review

IMMORTALS is claiming the same drop for Sunday as it had on Saturday, so that total may come down in actuals.  Even so, as long as the final amount is over $30M (which it certainly should be), that's a win for Relativity, no matter what the movie's budget actually was.  Immortals also launched widely overseas, including in such important territories as China, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, and should hit a solid $36M there.  

JACK AND JILL's $26M opening is the lowest for any Adam Sandler comedy vehicle since The Wedding Singer in 1998.  Sony seems to be counting on a multiple like the one that got Bedtime Stories over $100M in 2008, but this picture will likely be long out of theatres before the lucrative Christmas week bonanza kicks in, and J&J will be one of Sandler's lowest-grossing pictures ever.  Is that meaningful, or did audiences just sense what a stinker this one was?  We won't know until Sandler's next movie opens (I Hate You, Dad in June).

If you want to know what "older-skewing" means, look no further than J. EDGAR:  two-thirds of its audience was over 50 years old.  Although an $11.5M opening is nothing to cheer about, that audience is generally in no rush to get to theatres (it takes a while to maneuver those walkers), and Warners is hoping for a slow build that lasts through the end of the year.  Last year's Hereafter dipped 47% in its second weekend, and that was the end of it, as it only reached $33M in total--J. Edgar will need to hold better than that.

PUSS IN BOOTS had another great hold in its final weekend before kiddie movie competition arrives.  TOWER HEIST's 45% drop seals its fate as a money-loser, unless overseas audiences take to it in a big way.  A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS was, as expected, a one-weekend-and-out proposition, and despite the 3D ticket prices, it may not even get to the $38M grossed by the last picture in the series.  PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 went over $100M, and has a shot at exceeding $108M and becoming the highest-grossing of the franchise.

In limited release, ANONYMOUS plummeted, and is unlikely even to reach $5M on a $35M budget.  MARGIN CALL expanded a bit more to 199 theaters, and should have an average of around $3K.  It could get to $5M in theatrical alone (not counting VOD), which would be a triumph for a picture that cost $3.5M and has spent very little on marketing; in addition, distributor Roadside Attractions has decided to make a well-deserved awards run for the film, so it's all good.  

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost doubled its theatre count to 183 and saw little incremental income with a $2700 average.  LIKE CRAZY widened to 70 theatres at a promising $7500 average.  THE SKIN I LIVE IN increased to 91 theatres at a $3400 average.  TAKE SHELTER seems to have reached its limit (barring a strong showing by Michael Shannon in critics' awards) with a $1600 average at 82.  

The only notable indie opening was Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA (also on VOD and HDMovie Net), which did a very nice $14K in each of 19 theatres.  Werner Herzog's death-penalty documentary INTO THE ABYSS had a $4200 average at 12.  These will likely be dwarfed next week by the arrival of THE DESCENDANTS, which will open in 5 theatres on Wednesday and then go to 27 on Friday.

Whether or not IMMORTALS holds together at the boxoffice after its opening few days, the impressive launch is good news for Relativity, which is trying to prove it can survive as a standalone distributor of Hollywood-level movies.  That doesn't necessarily mean Immortals will hit profit (its financial picture is complicated by various distributors handling it around the world, and uncertainty about what the budget actually was), but it does mean Relativity can claim a #1 opening for a picture with no huge stars to promote.  (Also happy:  Warner Bros, which can now say that its new Superman has already been the star of a hit.)

The JACK AND JILL opening looks to be in line with Adam Sandler's last family outing, 2008's Bedtime Stories, which started with a $27M weekend.  However, that picture opened on Christmas Day and had the benefit of the giant boxoffice week that follows, resulting in a total that was 4x its first 3 days.  J&J probably won't have a trajectory anything like that, which will likely make this--amazingly enough--his first "non-serious" starring vehicle not to hit $100M since Little Nicky in 2000.  In fairness, it will be far more successful than that flop, although it does bear the burden of a $80M budget (which means total worldwide costs of probably $200M+ once marketing is added in).

J. EDGAR was always intended as a longterm play that would stay in theatres throughout the holiday/awards season.  Its opening looks to be in line with Hereafter's $12M, but that picture got no awards traction and petered out at $33M (although it made more than double that overseas).  J. Edgar should open better than either Invictus or Changeling, but neither of those got to $40M either (even with a Best Actress nomination for Angelina Jolie on the latter).  The movie's fate will rest on word of mouth and how it fares in early critics' awards.

The great news for DreamWorks Animation is that PUSS IN BOOTS was actually up from last Friday (thanks in part to the Veterans Day holiday), meaning another solid hold for the weekend.  The less-great news is that an avalanche of kids movies is about to fall, with Happy Feet 2 arriving Friday, followed less than a week later by The Muppets, Hugo and Arthur Christmas, making this the movie's last wide-open weekend.

TOWER HEIST isn't going to have a terrible drop (that's the advantage of an older-skewing audience), but seems unlikely to get much past $75M, which won't pay the bills once marketing costs are figured in.  The overseas openings to date haven't been promising either.  

We're still a couple of weeks away from the explosion of indie movies that will arrive for awards season, but Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, riding mostly excellent reviews, should do around $15K in each of 18 theatres (it's also available on VOD and aired last week on the HDMovie network).  LIKE CRAZY expanded to 70 theatres and should have a pretty good $8500 average.

Although as noted the family holiday season kicks off next weekend with HAPPY FEET 2 (the original opened with $41M in 2006), next week is all about THE TWILIGHT SAGA:  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, which should easily own every multiplex in the country as of 12:01AM Thursday night.  New Moon, the last chapter of the saga to open on a Friday, holds the 4th highest opening weekend of all time with a staggering $143M in its first 3 days (including $26M from Thursday midnight shows), so that's the number to beat.    

The tiny 3% drop in PUSS IN BOOTS' second weekend is truly remarkable, and could well lead to studios adopting DreamWorks' strategy in the future of opening an animated movie on Halloween weekend and then having a de facto 2d opening the following week.  (However, the picture is still running $13M below Megamind's 10 day total.)

Despite all the money Universal spent to turn TOWER HEIST into an event, audiences just weren't buying.  The initial overseas numbers of $9.5M in 23 territories aren't terribly promising either.  Interestingly, exit polling showed the audience for the picture skewing rather old; this could be a byproduct of Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy's decisions to spend much of the past decade in family movies--they're now perceived as stars only by little kids (not the audience for this one) and their parents.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS, even with 3D ticket prices, couldn't match the opening of the series' second installment, and with an Adam Sandler movie opening next week, it's unlikely to get much beyond a $30M gross.  Warners would probably have been better off using it as counterprogramming during the real holiday season.

In the absence of compelling new openings, holdovers mostly did very well, although the only Fall opening (besides Puss) likely to get to $100M is PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3.

With the exception of ANONYMOUS (a dull $2500 in each of 513 theatres), most of the weekend's indie expansions were fairly successful.  MARGIN CALL, now in 178 theatres, should be close to $4500 in each, just slightly below its average last weekend.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE went to 98 theatres with about a $5K average, a notch above THE SKIN I LIVE IN, which is in 78 with about $4K in each.  TAKE SHELTER is in a holding pattern with an OK $2K or so in each of 91 theatres.  LIKE CRAZY is still in very limited distribution, but widened to 16 with about a $16K average.

TOWER HEIST hurts Universal on several levels.  It's a big-budget movie (with marketing costs included, the total is likely $200M) in a genre that doesn't necessarily travel well, and it was the studio's big year-end release.  And just to make things worse, next week its pair of Stiller and Murphy have to face off against Adam Sandler's Jack & Jill.  (Incidentally, the idea, floating online, that the movie's $25M opening shouldn't be considered soft because on this particular weekend of the year, other comedies not aimed at families haven't done better, is beyond inane--it seems to assume that moviegoers check the calendar before heading out to the multiplex, saying "Hey, I don't care what's opening--if it's the first weekend in November, I don't want to see any damn non-family comedy!  Everyone knows I only go to those in the second weekend in November or the third weekend in September!")   

PUSS IN BOOTS got the second weekend it needed, with a superb drop of only around 20%.  Not to be churlish, though, but while that's a far better hold than Megamind had last year (37% drop), it's still likely to make for a second weekend lower than Megamind's $29M, and a 10-day gross 20% lower than Megamind's $88M.  (Megamind wound up with $148M in the US.)  Next week Puss also has to contend with the Sandler movie, which is PG and being pitched to a family audience, and the following week a deluge of animated competition begins with Happy Feet 2.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS looks to be on par with the last picture in the series, Guantanamo Bay, which opened with $14.8M (although the Xmas number is boosted by 3D ticket prices).  It's doubtful that Warners expected much more, so presumably these economics work for them.

With little excitement generated by the new arrivals, holdovers again did very well:  other than the post-Halloween PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3, none of the Top 10 appear likely to decline more than 40% (not even THE RUM DIARY).  This developing pattern of strong holdover business may also suggest an aging of the theatrical movie audience, as older audiences have long been likely to wait a week or 2 before heading out to see films.

There weren't any major indie openings this weekend, but several expansions are worth noting.  ANONYMOUS (which isn't technically an "indie," but has the subject matter of one) doubled its theatre count to 513 but only increased its gross by 20%, meaning an anemic per-theatre number that may not reach $2500.  MARGIN CALL continued its quiet success, adding 38 theatres for a total of 178 and holding to a fine per-theatre number over $4K (it continues to be available as well on VOD)--the film now seems capable of reaching $5M or more at the boxoffice, which would make it a solid low-budget success.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost tripled its theatres to 98, and is finding an audience, with a per-theatre that should be at least $4500.  LIKE CRAZY took a smaller leap to 16 houses, and should be a very good $15K in each.

Next weekend is all Adam Sandler, in fact 2 of him, since as everyone now knows, he plays both himself and his twin sister in JACK & JILL. His last non-summer opening was $30M for Just Go With It, so that will presumably be a target number for the picture.  Sandler's competition will be limited to the R-rated 300 rip-off IMMORTALS and Clint Eastwood's very serious J. EDGAR, also an R. 

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 continues Paramount's license to print money--it'll soon be in profit even with worldwide marketing costs calculated in.  Yesterday will probably prove to be by far the biggest day of its front-loaded run, but at those prices, who cares?

Sometimes it's not about the marketing--it's about the movie.  It would be difficult, if not impossible, to find 30 seconds of the godawful THREE MUSKETEERS remake that could be cut into a promo that would make anyone want to see it.  The movie reportedly cost $90M, and even though Summit seems not to be on the hook for much of the production cost, they won't even recoup their prints and marketing expenses.  The best thing about this is that it should mean the sequel threatened in the final scene won't actually be made.

If not for relationship issues, Universal would probably have let JOHNNY ENGLISH REBORN slip quietly to direct-to-homevideo in the US, since there was already plenty of evidence that Rowan Atkinson has no boxoffice appeal on American soil.  As it is, they gave it a stealth opening in only 1500 theatres and with little marketing behind it.  Now that it's over, they'll continue to pour cash into TOWER HEIST, opening in 2 weeks.

With the exception of horror movies THE THING and DREAM HOUSE, there was no competition for any of the holdovers, and they all did very well, with 20-30% weekend drops.  (Well, all but THE BIG YEAR, which continued to be a movie no one wanted to see.)  The free ride for the family movies, however, ends this week with Friday's arrival of PUSS IN BOOTS.

There was no audience for the G-rated sports movie THE MIGHTY MACS, which will be lucky to hit a $1K average in almost 1000 theatres.  Emilio Estevez's spiritual-themed THE WAY almost tripled its count and did passably, with about $1750 in each of 280 theatres.

Two excellent indies made their debuts this weekend with very different release strategies.  MARGIN CALL opened at a surprisingly wide 56 theatres, and is also available on VOD, meaning its theatrical numbers are only part of the picture (studios don't release their VOD figures).  Despite that, it's headed for a very impressive $10K per theatre, which puts it on track to be one of the relatively few VOD titles to also exceed $1M in theatre revenues.  Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight gave MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE a more conventional showcase opening in NY/LA only, and is headed for a superb $35K in each of its 4 theatres.  That's roughly the same per-screen as THE SKIN I LIVE IN had last week in 6, but as often happens, when that film expanded this weekend to 21 houses, its per-theatre number went down to a still-good $11K.

Halloween weekend is a soft one for teen business, due to all the social events the holiday brings with it, and consequently the only major opening on Friday is DreamWorks' Puss In Boots for the kiddies.  Fox's IN TIME features a host of young actors who are trying to prove they can carry an action movie (Justin Timberlake, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Wilde), and the studio is putting some marketing cash behind it.  RUM DIARY is getting a wide opening, but it's more like the kind of indie Johnny Depp used to make in his pre-Captain Jack Sparrow days.  Also, Sony will open the Shakespeare-themed ANONYMOUS in around 250 theatres, having backed off their wacky initial notion of opening it wide.

One final note:  whether for ego, relationship or contractual minimum guarantee reasons, Universal has been utterly determined to get COWBOYS & ALIENS to the $100M mark, leaving it in hundreds of theatres long after much bigger hits have gone away.  Well, mission accomplished!  The picture has scratched its way to the goal, so everyone associated with the movie can be very proud.

It's always to the advantage of the new opening to own first place at the boxoffice, so if Paramount thought FOOTLOOSE could pull it out over REAL STEEL, they would have staked their claim today.  (Both pictures are reporting a 39% Saturday-to-Sunday drop.)

The Hollywood Reporter says Real Steel also made $23M overseas, which is slightly up from last weekend but includes an expansion into unspecified new territories.  Look for Mitch Metcalf's international boxoffice report later.

The rest of the US weekend boxoffice news was bad for the new openings (downright awful for THE BIG YEAR), and good for holdovers. 

 

It's easy to overreact to a lousy weekend like this.  On the one hand, bear in mind that last year's Jackass 3D was a huge overperformer, and that inflated the year-by-year comparison for this weekend.  On the other, anyone who thinks the overall small declines for this weekend's continuing films suggests anything other than desperate moviegoers unable to make themselves see the new arrivals and thereby forced to choose older ones is deluded.  (The trend may well continue next weekend for everyone who isn't a PARANORMAL ACTIVITY fan, since it's not clear what audience exists for THREE MUSKETEERS 3D and Universal seems to be sneaking JOHNNY ENGLISH REBORN into town.)  

The limited release of THE SKIN I LIVE IN was highly successful, with a $38.5K average in 6 theatres.  Emilio Estevez's THE WAY expanded to 100 theatres and did an OK $2500 in each, TAKE SHELTER held nicely after an expansion to 24 houses, with around $5500 in each.  Considering its years on the shelf, FIREFLIES IN THE GARDEN did a decent $6K in each of 5, but TEXAS KILLING FIELDS could only manage $3K in each of 3.  

FOOTLOOSE has the advantage of facing no new direct competition on Friday.  That, along with what should be fairly good word of mouth, could give it some legs in the marketplace.  THE THING, on the other hand, had a make-or-break weekend this week with PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 about to hit, and it's not going to do much better than DREAM HOUSE did 2 weeks ago.

THE BIG YEAR is far from an art-house curiosity--it's a (supposedly) commercial mainstream comedy, and yet it's going to go in the books as one of the lowest-grossing big-studio movies of the entire year.  It's astounding that the combined names of Steve Martin, Jack Black and Owen Wilson couldn't even get this to the level of "mediocre."

REAL STEEL had a very decent hold (the weekend title this week will boil down to today's battle for the Saturday matinee audience), but its important number will be the international gross tomorrow, since it has no chance of breaking even without a strong overseas performance.

THE IDES OF MARCH and 50/50 are models of how producers can make relatively serious movies on reasonable (i.e., low) budgets and--despite marginal international appeal--have a chance at seeing profit.  (MONEYBALL, which cost more than double the two of them combined, is more problematic.)  Of course, it helps that word of mouth on both pictures is obviously exceptional, with 50/50 getting The Help-level retention at a drop of only 25% from last week, and Ides not much worse.

In limited release, the unquestionable highlight is Pedro Almodovar's strange, compelling thriller THE SKIN I LIVE IN (don't let anyone tell you the 2d-act secret).  It's going to do a terrific $37K or so in each of 6 theatres, and has a chance of finding a wider audience.  The long-delayed FIREFLIES IN THE GARDEN could do an OK $6500 in each of 5, while TEXAS KILLING FIELDS is headed for a blah $3500 in each of 3.

Next weekend is all about Paranormal Activity 3, which will be aiming at the $40M earned by Paranormal 2 in its debut.  The 3D THREE MUSKETEERS and JOHNNY ENGLISH REBORN will be much less of a factor.  

REAL STEEL had a nice Saturday bump of 27%, but that's far lower than the 40% it was initially claiming (and only 4% higher than the one for Ides of March, which is decidedly not a family matinee movie).  The picture could benefit, though, from some additional matinee business on Columbus Day tomorrow.  Also helping out is the limited competition it'll face over the next couple of weeks, with Footloose aiming at a slightly older audience and Johnny English Reborn and The Three Musketeers not likely to be major boxoffice factors.  (That good luck runs out on October 28, when Puss in Boots opens.)  Still, the picture is unlikely to reach 9 figures in the US, which means its ultimate success will rest on overseas business.  The movie is rolling out gradually worldwide, and started with a good $22M this weekend in 19 territories, only 3 of which are major (Russia, Mexico and Australia).  

Even though they're in different genres, THE IDES OF MARCH will have competition next weekend from The Big Year for the older audience.  Since international markets aren't likely to be very interested in a story of US politics, the film will need to linger in domestic theatres for several weeks in order to hit a profit.

DOLPHIN TALE and MONEYBALL may end up in more or less the same place with their final US grosses (Moneyball making up midweek what it loses to Dolphin on the weekends), but Dolphin is in far better shape financially, as it cost about 25% less to produce (and probably also somewhat less to market), and has a brighter outlook internationally thanks to the overseas romance with 3D family movies. 

Cinemascoristas, please note:  the much-vaunted, "rarely-given" A+ rating that COURAGEOUS won bought it a thoroughly routine 50% drop in its second weekend, far less impressive than 50/50's and not even as good as the holds for the mostly-reviled DREAM HOUSE and WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER?  As of now, it doesn't appear the movie will even reach the $33M total that its faith-based stablemate Fireproof did last year.

In limited release, one has to give a little revolted credit to THE HUMAN CENTIPEDE, which managed $3K in each of 18 theatres playing only midnight shows.  That's better than DIRTY GIRL will average at 9 playing a full schedule.  THE WAY did an OK $4K in each of 33, as did THE WOMEN ON THE SIXTH FLOOR in each of 6.  It wasn't a good weekend for expansions, as MACHINE GUN PREACHER fell to a $1200 average in each of 93, WEEKEND to $4K in each of 14, and TAKE SHELTER to $5K in each of 11.  

The irony of the new DreamWorks/Disney is that thus far, their big "event" spectaculars have done only modest business--I Am Number Four opened with $19.5M and ended up with $55M domestically, and REAL STEEL might do about 25-30% better--while their "little" picture THE HELP has been a blockbuster, one of the most profitable films of the year.  Number Four did gross 60% more internationally than it did in the US, and the same may well be true with Real Steel--however, Steel cost at least double what Number Four did (DreamWorks claims $110M, about which we may be politely dubious), so that may not be enough.

THE IDES OF MARCH is quite low-budget by big-studio standards, with a reported cost of just $12.5M (but considerably higher marketing expenses).  No one expected it to open big, so the question is whether it will last long enough in theatres to recoup its cost.  The downside for the film is that the subject of American politics is unlikely to travel well, so foreign business may be comparatively minimal.  Ides also confirms what we learned a few weeks ago with Drive:  Ryan Gosling is a superb and rising actor, but his name alone doesn't sell tickets.

It's now clear that MONEYBALL won't get close to The Social Network's $97M gross--Moneyball started out lower, and although its weekend holds are fine, they're not nearly as impressive as Network's (which didn't dip more than 33% until its 7th week in release).  Like Ides, Moneyball's subject matter makes it a problematic release overseas; however, its production cost is 4x that of Ides.  The big-picture risk for the movie is that it will be out of theatres when serious awards talk begins in a month or so, and absence may not make critics' hearts grow fonder.

DOLPHIN TALE continues to run fairly parallel (although about 35% ahead) to last year's Legend of the Guardians--and at a much lower budget--so that's a nice seasonal win for Warners.  Now that THE LION KING has actually hit blu-ray, its theatrical business collapsed, but that's still going to be close to $100M in mostly surprise dollars for Disney.

50/50 had a very nice hold, and with its small production cost and relatively low-key ad campaign, it should do OK for Summit.  (As that studio counts the days down to November 17, when the new Twilight opens and they go back to printing money.)  DREAM HOUSE, WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? and ABDUCTION will all fall close to the expected 50%.  It's worth noting, though, that COURAGEOUS, which caused some excitement last week with its big opening day, has turned out to be much more front-loaded than last year's faith-based Fireproof, and will fall at least 50% this weekend, compared to the 40% 2d weekend drop for Fireproof.  (Although with a $2M production cost, the movie will still be very profitable.)

Nothing to get excited about in limited release.  MACHINE GUN PREACHER continues to expand badly, and is headed for little more than $1K per theatre in 93.  THE WAY has a deal with AMC Theaters for exclusive distribution, and is looking at an OK $3500 in each of 33.  THE WOMEN ON THE SIXTH FLOOR should do similarly at only 6, while THE HUMAN CENTIPEDE 2 may ride its "You'll vomit from the disgustingness!" hype to $6K in each of 9.  DIRTY GIRL wasn't able to get any traction, with about $2500 in each of 9.

Sony is taking an interesting strategy this fall:  with MONEYBALL in release, THE IDES OF MARCH opening on Friday and ANONYMOUS coming on October 28, they're cornering the market on upscale, wide-release drama until Warner Bros opens J. EDGAR on November 11.  (On that date, Sony will go as downscale as is humanly possible with the Adam Sandler drag-fest JACK & JILL.)  Depending on how one looks at it, they may be trying to give all three films a chance to own the "serious film" market before the holiday--and award--season deluge, or they could be clearing their decks for their real push, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO in December.

Among the weekend's new openings, COURAGEOUS is predicting by far the smallest Sunday drop (23%, compared to 35-48% for the others), which is presumably because they're expecting major business from church groups.  We'll find out tomorrow how that plays out.  

DOLPHIN TALE's hope for an uninterrupted long run were nipped this week by DreamWorks Animation's decision to move PUSS IN BOOTS up a week to October 28 (which still leaves it 3 weeks to collect the bulk of its revenues).  

THE SOCIAL NETWORK fell only 31% in its second weekend, so MONEYBALL, which is headed for a fall closer to 40% (after a lower opening), continues not to be in Network's league financially.  The timing of a movie like this is tricky, because if it's out of theatres when the awards discussions start to become serious, it can lose momentum, and that's the danger for Moneyball.  (It will also face direct competition--from Sony, its own studio--next week from THE IDES OF MARCH.)

Summit spent a lot of time and effort trying to get people into 50/50 (Seth Rogen, who's a producer as well as star of the film, seemed to be interviewed everywhere), and with good reason, because it's an excellent movie.  Audiences who showed up seem to get it--to the extent Cinemascore means anything, 50/50 received an A- grade--but selling a comedy about cancer is just a tough nut to crack.  

DOLPHIN TALE is benefitting from the fact that it's actually a pretty decent family movie, but it faces competition next weekend from Real Steel (although Dolphin is by far the better picture).  To no one's surprise, Disney held LION KING in theatres even though the blu-ray is being released on Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether all these boxoffice dollars will help or hurt the video sales.

COURAGEOUS proves once again that the church audience is eager to be roused by movie marketing, and while the movie is unlikely to get any kind of crossover attention, it'll be quite profitable due to its limited budget and marketing costs.  (The movie's "A+" from Cinemascore is fairly meaningless, since the people they polled are exactly the people most likely to adore it.)

On the "disaster" side of the ledger, the producers of DREAM HOUSE took the movie away from its director Jim Sheridan, and that led to Sheridan and stars Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and Naomi Watts largely refusing to do any publicity for the film--which led to Universal not screening it for critics.  The result is a fairly expensive movie (which is indeed lousy, at least in its non-director's-cut form) that's looking at red ink.  Also, the discussion on whether Anna Faris is a "star" can end--she's not.  I liked WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? far more than most (at the very least, it doesn't compare badly to most of Katherine Heigl's output), but no one out there is buying a ticket to see Faris, no matter how talented she is.

In limited release, TAKE SHELTER is headed for a heartening $17.5K at each of 3 theatres, but it's a troubling movie that is likely to have a hard time attracting a mainstream audience.  Fans of car wrecks showed up for MARGARET to the tune of around $3500 in each of 2--that's the movie that sat on the shelf for 6 years while its director and producers fought about the editing.  And MACHINE GUN PREACHER expanded from 4 theatres to 33; without the cushion of Q&As with the stars, its per-theatre gross dropped sharply to around $3K. 

Next weekend brings one movie looking for a massive audience (REAL STEEL) and one that would be satisfied with more modest returns and some awards attention (THE IDES OF MARCH).  An early word of advice:  go with the humans.

No doubt the enormous success of THE LION KING hasn't been lost on anyone at Disney, and we can expect to see 3D reissues of more classic animation over the next few years, leading into yet more homevideo editions.

If not for Lion King being in the market, DOLPHIN TALE would almost certainly have won the weekend, so Warners' decision to stick with its opening date (because it was the same week they'd released Legend of the Guardians last year?) may have been misguided.  Dolphin gets one more weekend (which one has to assume it'll have to share with Lion King again, since it's hard to believe Disney will really pull that from the market as planned), then it'll have to face Real Steel for the family audience.

MONEYBALL didn't quite get to Social Network's $22M opening, even though Brad Pitt is an infinitely bigger star than Jesse Eisenberg.  The baseball subject matter may have turned off some potential audiences (although one wouldn't have thought the corporate infighting at Facebook would pack them in), and although Moneyball got rave reviews, they didn't quite have the "this is an instant Best Picture frontrunner and you have to see it" vibe.  It's going to face competition quickly, from 50/50 next weekend and then Ides of March, so we'll see how it holds up.

ABDUCTION does seem to have made it to $11M (pending actuals tomorrow), for whatever that's worth to the Lautner team.  KILLER ELITE will make whatever real money it's going to make overseas.  

Although DRIVE had the best hold of last week's openings, a virtual 50% drop for a film with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes is disappointing, reinforcing the fact that audience response was not in line with the critical acclaim--not a shock, since Drive's limitation is that it seems to have been made for film critics.

In limited release, MY AFTERNOONS WITH MARGUERITTE expanded from 2 theatres to 27 and did a not-much $2700 per theatre, while Gus Van Sant's RESTLESS went disastrously from 5 to 17, with barely $1K in each.  MACHINE GUN PREACHER premiered with a good $11K in each of 4 theatres, but until Gerard Butler and Michelle Monaghan stop doing Q&As, we won't know the movie's real strength.  PUNCTURE, which also had some Q&As for opening weekend, pulled a decent $9K in each of 4.  Most impressive, though, was the gay romance WEEKEND, which got stellar reviews in NY and made $25K in one small theatre there; it arrives in LA next week.

MONEYBALL's debut looks to be in line with the opening weekend of The Social Network ($22.4M) just about a year ago.  That movie rode the Oscar race to a $97M gross.  Moneyball is more likable but less incisive than Network, and while it's going to be part of the Oscar conversation, it's less likely to be a frontrunner; we'll see if it can build as well on its opening.

Disney is supposed to withdraw THE LION KING from circulation on Thursday, because its new blu-ray of the picture goes on sale the following Tuesday.  But will they really leave millions on the table in additional boxoffice by sticking to the plan?

DOLPHIN TALE's opening day is about 12% better than the one Warners had with Legend of the Guardian, their 3D family movie on the same weekend last year.  If that comparison holds, it would give Dolphin around $18M for the weekend and an ultimate gross in the mid $60Ms.  

The Taylor Lautner spin machine is strong enough to operate power grids in 3 states, but the fact is that a $10M opening weekend doesn't justify a big-time movie star salary.  At best, Lautner is a lap behind Jason Statham's level:  KILLER ELITE looks to open at the lower-end of Statham's wheelhouse, with a $10M opening that compares to the $11M he had with The Mechanic and $12M with Transporter 3 and Death Race. 

Among holdovers, DRIVE, CONTAGION and (of course) THE HELP held well, while I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT and STRAW DOGS didn't.  And THE DEBT now seems like it won't get past $32M, not quite at the level of The Constant Gardener ($33.5M) or The American ($35M).

In limited release, MACHINE GUN PREACHER should do around $9K in each of 4 theatres, but that number is hyped by Q&A sessions with the stars, so it may be misleading.

For all the wildly unexpected success of THE LION KING, Disney has limited boxoffice upside, because the new Blu-Ray hits the streets on October 4, and that's not likely to be a date that can be changed.

The Friday number for DRIVE is right on the edge between meeting expectations and disappointing them; its C- Cinemascore suggests the balance is going to tilt the wrong way over the course of the weekend.

Screen Gems seems to have seen STRAW DOGS coming, as it's been sitting on their shelf for quite a few months.  Straw was an ill-advised project in the first place, remaking a film that's both critically esteemed and fairly obscure, and without any appreciable star value.  Scheduling it directly against the similar-appeal Drive was probably the death blow.  

I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT was Harvey Weinstein's turn to learn that Sarah Jessica Parker has no boxoffice value outside the Sex and the City franchise.  Combine that with the fact that it's a woeful piece of work, and you have a formula for flopping.  

CONTAGION held on surprisingly well in its second weekend, considering how genuinely disturbing it is to watch.  It wasn't a cheap film to produce, however, so international revenues will still be key.  It's hardly news that THE HELP continues to play like a champion; at this point, the question is how much DreamWorks will push it in awards season with mogul Spielberg's own War Horse on the horizon.  WARRIOR is also having a decent hold in terms of percentage, but its opening was so low that it hardly matters.

In limited release, Sony Classics was unable to parlay the Toronto reception for RESTLESS into any business--the picture is heading for perhaps $4K in each of 6 theatres.  However, THE MILL AND THE CROSS received a rhapsodic NY Times review, and should make $10K in its Film Forum weekend there (don't look for that one to do any crossover business, though).  

Next weekend, the interesting opening is MONEYBALL, which got deservedly excellent buzz out of Toronto and for which Brad Pitt is in the midst of a publicity spree.  Can that make the difference for a movie whose premise is hard to explain in a single sentence, let alone sell?  Also, Taylor Lautner will tackle his first solo starring project with ABDUCTION--will the Twilight fanatics show up in force for what looks like a Shia LaBouef retread?  And to return full circle, is Lion King a 1-weekend wonder, or will it dent the opening of DOLPHIN TALE?  We'll know soon enough.

It turned out to be a great boxoffice weekend for movies aimed at adults, led of course by THE HELP.  THE DEBT had an extraordinarily strong Saturday for a new opening (up 40% from Friday), and is riding that to a surprising weekend finish above its more youth-oriented competition--and at considerably fewer theatres.  APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT, in comparison, had Saturday increases of only 5-7%.  This puts Debt in a good position to add some theatres next weekend, although it faces more direct competition from newcomers CONTAGION and WARRIOR.  Adding to the sweep for adult audiences, CRAZY STUPID LOVE actually managed to go up in its 6th weekend despite losing theatres, demonstrating superb word of mouth.

No one showed up for 7 DAYS IN UTOPIA (a dim $2200 per theatre average at 561), which will be coming soon to a faith-based Netflix queue near you.  A much more serious and worthy film about religion, Vera Farmiga's HIGHER GROUND, was more impressive with around $5500 on each of 17 screens.  CIRCUMSTANCE was at an OK $3200 on each of 11, similar to THE GUARD's per-theatre number--but Guard's is more impressive because it's at 178 screens.  THE WHISTLEBLOWER and BRIGHTON ROCK were both under $2K per theatre, in 61 and 13, respectively.  Among new limited openings, DETECTIVE DEE was most impressive with over $15K at each of 3, while LOVE CRIMES and GAINSBOURG:  A HEROIC LIFE were both in the $7K per screen neighborhood at 3 each.  Bringing up the rear (no double entendre intended) was A GOOD OLD FASHIONED ORGY, with a terrible $750 average on 142 screens.

Apart from the usual hosannas to THE HELP's remarkable staying power, there's not much to be said about this weekend's wide releases.  APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT are both flops that will be hard-pressed to gross enough to pay for their marketing.  THE DEBT is a bit more of a question mark, because of its genre and theatre count, but the B it received from exit polling isn't a good sign for the kind of word-of-mouth it would need to build over time--especially with a tankload of "serious" movies about to come down the pike.

In barely-limited release, the Jesus-and-golf movie SEVEN DAYS IN UTOPIA isn't getting much from its faith-based audience, heading for maybe $3-4K per theatre (even worse than Apollo 18, which is in more than 5x as many theatres) over the 4-day holiday at 561.  In genuinely small runs, LOVE CRIMES could do a decent $10K in each of 5, GAINSBOURG:  A HEROIC LIFE around $7500 in each of 2, and the martial arts picture DETECTIVE DEE perhaps $20K in each of 3.  

Next weekend shapes up as unusually interesting for early September, as two ambitious movies square off. Steven Soderbergh's CONTAGION, with its all-star cast but uncompromisingly grim tone, faces the extremely well-reviewed WARRIOR, which will hold sneak previews nationwide on Sunday night in an effort to build buzz for a picture that was very much under the radar with its MMA theme and Tom Hardy and Joel Edgerton in the leads.  (Also opening is BUCKY LARSON:  BORN TO BE A STAR, which I'd prefer to pretend doesn't exist.)

The probable effect of Irene is most evident in the weekend's limited releases, where loss of NY business would have been most damaging.  HIGHER GROUND, seemingly headed for a per-theatre average of $12K, could only manage $7600, while CIRCUMSTANCE, on track for a $8K average, made it to only $6200.  Similarly, some expansions were hit:  SARAH'S KEY, which looked to hold steady on Friday (while increasing theatre count by 35%), instead went down 17%.  And Sony Classics was unlucky in its last-hurrah expansion of MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, which increased its theatre count by almost 150% but saw grosses rise only 34%.

For the wider releases, the storm's effect was less serious.  THE HELP seemed hardly to be touched at all, probably because its audience isn't particularly centered on the East Coast, and the same goes for the genre movies COLOMBIANA and DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK.  OUR IDIOT BROTHER could plausibly claim that Irene caused it some pain, but even another $1M for the weekend wouldn't have made its bleak result much brighter. 

Labor Day weekend is historically terrible at the boxoffice, and studios will have to decide whether the possibility of making up for some of this weekend's shortfall justifies increased marketing for next weekend, in an effort to bring some of those lost audiences back in.  The big studios will probably do little, if any, of that--this weekend's openings were unlikely to have much gas in them anyway.  Smaller distributors like Sony Classics and Roadside Attractions, however, may find the push worthwhile.  

The full extent of theatre closings and other Hurricane Irene-related events isn't yet known, so projections may be high at this point.

That being said, this was never going to be a good weekend at the boxoffice:  in late August, the studios don't open their heavy hitters.  What audiences there are continue to flock to THE HELP, which should go over $100M by the end of this week, and has little real competition for its target audience over the next several weekends.  The question that won't be answered for a few months is whether the picture will be able to keep enough momentum going to propel itself into serious awards contention.

None of the new releases this weekend will make a lot of cash, so success or failure will have more to do with their costs.  On that scale, OUR IDIOT BROTHER, despite its relatively lowly gross, may not be as big a failure as it seems:  The Weinstein Company paid $6M for distribution rights plus a marketing commitment of $15M, and if the film can eke its way to the $24M Mitch Metcalf predicts, there might be enough for a small profit, particularly because it has a very cable-TV-friendly cast.  

DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, on the other hand, cost a reported $25M to produce, and FilmDistrict's marketing campaign probably wasn't smaller (and may have been larger) than Idiot's, putting it deeper in the hole.

As with most of the product produced by Luc Besson's company, COLOMBIANA's success will be largely based on its international results; its projected $28M US gross won't even bring it to breakeven.

All of the terrible 3D reboots from last weekend collapsed even further this time around:  don't look for further chapters in the CONAN THE BARBARIAN, SPY KIDS or FRIGHT NIGHT sagas.  ONE DAY didn't show any positive word of mouth either.

A few limited releases expanded this weekend and saw decent numbers.  SARAH'S KEY increased its theatre count by about 35% and held steady (meaning its per-theatre number slipped), while SENNA nearly doubled its count (still at only 34) and saw its total rise modestly, a similar result.

It's particularly important to note the effect of Irene on the new, very limited releases:  Vera Farmiga's excellent HIGHER GROUND was looking to gross $13K or so at each of its 3 theatres, but 2 of those theatres are in Manhattan, and if they're closed or deserted, that will obviously have a serious effect on the weekend total.  Similarly, the very good CIRCUMSTANCE, about rebelling teens in Iran, was headed to a good $8K or so in each of 6 theatres, but half of those are in the NY area. 

Labor Day is historically the one holiday weekend when Americans don't go to the movies, and consequently, 2 cheap horror movies lead the pack with APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT 3D.  Also, Focus had a minor success last Labor Day with a Wednesday opening for THE AMERICAN, so they're going to try the same slot for THE DEBT, another international action film.  But without George Clooney in the lead--and with the probability of blah reviews for a movie that's been sitting on the shelf for a year--they may not duplicate that feat.

There's not much to add about the weekend grosses that hasn't been said (see Mitch Metcalf's round-up report here), so let's take a look at who, apart from the studios themselves, did and didn't have a fun weekend:

Women of THE HELP:  Emma Stone isn't likely to get Oscar consideration for her performance, being the "White Actress in an African-American Story" (for a particularly egregious example of this criticism, see Patrick Goldstein's column today--as a rule of thumb, if you have to cite Armond White as back-up for your argument, you may want to rethink the debate).  But she's still the biggest name in a smash hit, and her supporting role in the sleeper CRAZY STUPID LOVE doesn't hurt either--assuming that the Spider-Man reboot doesn't go splat next summer, she'll have as much claim as anyone to the currently vacant title of America's Sweetheart.  Meanwhile, Viola Davis has a big decision to make:  campaign for the Oscar as Best Actress (which she might not win, but just being nominated could bring her to a new level in the industry) or Supporting (where she would have a serious chance at victory)?  Her decision will directly impact co-star Octavia Spencer, who has a much better chance of making the cut in Supporting with Davis in the leading category.  (There's also the chance Sissy Spacek could pull a Supporting nomination for her tasty little role as Bryce Dallas Howard's mother, but probably not--see "White Actress in an African-American Story," above.)  Not in the same gender pool but still a Winner is director Tate Taylor, who went from being utterly unknown to the man behind a giant success, without having to direct music videos or make a stop at Sundance.

Expanders:  Several limited releases widened their runs this weekend with generally good results.  SARAH'S KEY made $3900 at each of 201 theatres; THE GUARD did $5200 at 83; THE WHISTLEBLOWER, $3200 at 44; and SENNA, $12K at 14.  (THE FUTURE did less well, with $2K at 32.) 

Andy Serkis:  He probably won't get that Oscar nomination for his motion-capture performance as Caesar the chimp.  But when Fox starts its campaign on his behalf, no one will be laughing.

Avi Lerner:  You may never have heard of him, but he's produced 243 movies for his Nu Image and Millenium studios, most of them proud--and often profitable--pieces of low-budget schlock.  (Righteous Kill?  The Nicolas Cage remake of The Wicker Man?  Those were his.)  He had a breakout hit last year with The Expendables, and this year CONAN THE BARBARIAN was supposed to provide him with his first real franchise, at an expensive-for-him cost of $70-90M.  Now the movie will have to hope for huge overperformance overseas just to break even (although no doubt Lerner's own investment is covered by pre-release guarantees, from distributors who may not be his biggest fans today).

Bob Weinstein:  His Dimension genre brand was supposed to fund brother Harvey's swings for the Oscar fences.  But this week's disastrous reboot of SPY KIDS follows the disastrous reboot of Scream earlier this year; coming soon is another "found footage" horror movie with Apollo 18, and then a second chapter in the Piranha series, which didn't do all that well ($25M) the first time.

Anne Hathaway:  Remember that currently-vacant position of America's Sweetheart?  It wasn't so long ago that the job seemed Hathaway's for the taking, but the past year or so hasn't gone so well.  It's not that Hathaway is giving bad performances, or even choosing terrible movies (Love and Other Drugs was a tonal mess, but still entertaining, and One Day is a respectable failure)--she just seems to be pushing too hard, nowhere more so than during her painful-to-watch Oscar gig.  The Dark Knight Rises isn't likely to do much more for her than previous installments did for Katie Holmes or Maggie Gyllenhaal (odds are that Tom Hardy will be the movie's Heath Ledger and she'll be Aaron Eckhart), but that's OK as long as her Catwoman doesn't actually hurt the picture.

Colin Farrell:  After paying some dues with his fine performances in little films like In Bruges, Crazy Heart and Ondine, Fright Night was supposed to be Farrell's first step back to commercial viability--but even with good reviews, it turned out no one cared.  Up next is the much more expensive remake of Total Recall, whose producers can't be feeling too comfortable now that this week's Conan reboot fell flat on its face.

Openers:  Nothing much was happening in the arthouses this weekend.  John Sayles' AMIGO could only muster $4K per theatre in 10 despite guest appearances from Sayles and the actors, and MOZART'S SISTER wasn't much better with $4700 in each of 7.  The one seeming exception is misleading:  Kevin Smith's RED STATE pulled in $26K in a single LA theatre as part of its Oscar-qualifying week (it seems the picture, despite its massive Sundance hoopla, is going to VOD next month and may never have a conventional theatrical release), but that number was boosted by a Q&A with the motormouth maestro at every show.

THE HELP will be the year's first "serious" movie to gross over $100M.  September is traditionally one of the softest months on the movie release calendar, and 2011 is no exception:  although there are a few promising arrivals like Steven Soderbergh's Contagion and the film adaptation of  Moneyball, the major openings (they hope) include vehicles for Sarah Jessica Parker and Taylor Lautner, and not much else.  Propelled by massive word of mouth, The Help could play strongly all through the month.  

Although the new Oscar rules for Best Picture nominations are nearly impenetrable (we don't even know how many nominees there will be, somewhere between 5-10), The Help is certainly a possible factor.  Much more likely are nominations in acting and the visual categories like Production Design.  Oscar credentials will be very important to the film, because without them, its subject matter will place it in tough sledding overseas; even without international interest, though, the movie's $25M cost (plus moderate marketing) makes it a hit already.

After that, and aside from the continued strength of RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (another movie benefiting from the weak August competition), the news is all bad.  Even though FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD were modestly budgeted, their marketing costs were still at least $25-30M domestically, and they'll be lucky if their US grosses even exceed those numbers.  Even worse is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, which cost upward of $70M plus marketing; the financiers will need huge international business just to break even (Lionsgate only controls US rights, for which they reportedly paid $25M plus marketing--they'll be looking at red ink too).    

Similarly, the horribly reviewed ONE DAY (I had my own problems with it, but really it's not that terrible), despite a production cost of only $15M and relatively minimal marketing, will have to hope for a big response in the UK (where the story is set) to have any chance at breaking even.  

It's not as though people were rushing out to limited releases, either.  Despite very strong reviews, neither AMIGO nor THE HEDGEHOG is likely to do more than $5-6K per theatre in either of their small runs, and GRIFF THE INVISIBLE won't even get to $2K.

Next weekend, more of the same, although there's a welcome absence of shoddy 3D, and at least one of the openings is actually good:  OUR IDIOT BROTHER, a fun ensemble comedy acquired by Harvey Weinstein at Sundance.  It's joined by the somewhat buzzy horror movie DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (produced by Guillermo del Toro), which was delayed when Disney got out of the Miramax business and is now with FilmDistrict (they had a notable horror success earlier this year with Insidious);  and Zoe Saldana in COLOMBIANA, from the Luc Besson international action-movie factory--you always know it's late summer when one of his movies shows up on the schedule. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for full weekend boxoffice and Mitch Metcalf's analysis, as well as international grosses as soon as they're available.