Movie Box Review

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a decent $123 million for the weekend, up 4% from last year's weekend and up 10% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Disney is claiming John Carter will finish the weekend with $30.6 million.  Let's all play pretend and give Disney the pleasure of 24 hours of thinking they crossed the $30 million threshold for the opening weekend.  This seems like a classic case of "rounding up" on Sunday morning to make an opening number seem a little better, but it doesn't change the fact that John Carter is going to be a catastrophe financially: maybe $75 million domestic and $125 million overseas for $200 million worldwide.  Less the theater owners' portion and adding in ancillary revenues like home video, video on demand, TV rights and so on, the studio might keep around $200 million versus a massive $400+ million expenditure on production and marketing. 

The tenth weekend of the year should generate about $122 million for the top 12 films, a slightly better than normal weekend for the second weekend in March -- up 4% from last year's comparable weekend and up 10% from the four-year average for this weekend.  John Carter will be the top opener, but it should be far behind the second weekend of The Lorax, which has a firm grip on first place.  As for the other openers, Silent House should open with a quiet $10 million, while Eddie Murphy's A Thousand Words should bomb with less than $5 million.   



Opening at over 3,500 theaters, John Carter from Disney should average a slightly-above-average $7,500 per theater (for $26.0 million Friday-Sunday), putting this very expensive movie on a solid pace to lose a lot of money.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 60% positive, a decent score for a science-fiction/ adventure film and suggesting the film could drop closer to 50% instead of 65% in its second weekend.  But a decent hold does no good if the film's opening weekend base is only $26 million.  John Carter is on track for a preliminary $65 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,100 theaters, Silent House from Open Road Films should average an unspectacular $4,800 per theater ($10.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Early reviews for this horror film written, produced and co-directed by Laura Lau are also currently 60% positive.  Silent House is headed for a total domestic gross of $27 million. 

Opening in around 1,500 theaters, A Thousand Words from Paramount should average a stillborn $3,000 per theater ($4.5 million Friday-Sunday).  No reviews yet for this comedy-drama starring almost-Oscar host Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words is headed for a total domestic gross of $9 million and an early exit from theaters. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 9-11                       Positive   Weekend   Total*

John Carter             Dis  PG13  59%      $26.0     $ 65
Silent House            Open R     60%      $10.0     $ 27
A Thousand Words        Par  PG13  n/a      $ 4.5     $  9


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The Lorax will reign supreme in its second weekend, down a better-than-average 41% to $41 million this weekend.  The real race in the irrelevant (but still fun to watch) weekend standings is for third place between Silent House and Project X.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 9-11                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
The Lorax                Uni      -41%      $41.0     $230
Project X                WB       -51%      $10.5     $ 68
Act of Valor             Rel      -45%      $ 7.5     $ 77
Safe House               Uni      -37%      $ 4.7     $129
Journey 2                WB       -41%      $ 3.9     $102

The Vow                  Sony     -40%      $ 3.6     $130
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -49%      $ 3.5     $ 39
This Means War           Fox      -37%      $ 3.5     $ 51


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $118 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $136 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $122 million, up 4% from this weekend last year and up 10% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year's weekend and up 23% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.

The ninth weekend of the year should generate about $125 million for the top 12 films, a fairly typical weekend for the first weekend in March -- up 2% from last year's comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Universal should stand tall with a $44 million opening for The Lorax, while Project X should place second with a slightly above average $18.5 million opening.   



Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal should average an excellent $12,300 per theater (for $44.0 million Friday-Sunday), which would be the best opening for a film since the weekend of November 18 when Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened with over $138 million in its first weekend.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews from critics are in so far at RottenTomatoes, but the film is over 75% positive with the small sample size.  Marketing for the film has been strong and omnipresent (Universal is acting like a major studio this weekend, as opposed to its imitation of a mini-studio last week with Wanderlust opening with $6.5 million at a mere 2,002 theaters).  The studio has pulled out all the stops with dozens of advertiser tie-ins, brilliantly skewered by The Colbert Report (at minute 5:40).  The Lorax is on track for a preliminary $156 million domestically.            

Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Project X from Warner Brothers should average an okay $6,200 per theater ($18.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Also a limited sample size for this comedy produced by Todd Phillips (The Hangover), but the few reviews are trending slightly negative.  Project X is headed for a total domestic gross of $64 million. 


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 2-4                        Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Lorax                Uni  PG    n/a      $44.0     $156
Project X                WB   R     n/a      $18.5     $ 64


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Fairly typical declines are in store for most holdover films, with Act of Valor the lone returning film headed for over $10 million this weekend.  Best Picture The Artist doubles its theater count from 966 to about 2,000, but the per theater average should drop from about $3,000 to about $2,100 as the film moves into parts of the country that should be less receptive to the silent tribute to the early days of Hollywood.  Still, it should have a hefty 45% increase from last weekend's tally.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 2-4                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Act of Valor             Rel      -47%      $13.0     $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -51%      $ 7.5     $ 40
Journey 2                 WB      -47%      $ 7.2     $120 
Safe House               Uni      -41%      $ 6.5     $133
The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $ 5.2     $133
This Means War           Fox      -44%      $ 4.8     $ 51
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -49%      $ 4.6     $ 55
The Artist              Wein      +45%      $ 4.2     $ 45

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $125 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $121 million (paced by Johnny Depp voicing the Best Animated film Rango), and the same weekend in 2010 was $186 million (paced by Johnny Depp in the huge Alice in Wonderland).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $123 million, up a scant 2% from this weekend last year and down 1% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $116 million for the weekend, up 21% from last year's weekend and up 25% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Act of Valor will still win the weekend, but the weekend total has been adjusted down about $1 million to $24.7 million.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds has been adjusted up about $1 million to a second-place $16.0 million.  The rest of the field is looking like it did yesterday at this time.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)