Movie Box Review

The ninth weekend of the year should generate about $125 million for the top 12 films, a fairly typical weekend for the first weekend in March -- up 2% from last year's comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Universal should stand tall with a $44 million opening for The Lorax, while Project X should place second with a slightly above average $18.5 million opening.   



Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal should average an excellent $12,300 per theater (for $44.0 million Friday-Sunday), which would be the best opening for a film since the weekend of November 18 when Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened with over $138 million in its first weekend.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews from critics are in so far at RottenTomatoes, but the film is over 75% positive with the small sample size.  Marketing for the film has been strong and omnipresent (Universal is acting like a major studio this weekend, as opposed to its imitation of a mini-studio last week with Wanderlust opening with $6.5 million at a mere 2,002 theaters).  The studio has pulled out all the stops with dozens of advertiser tie-ins, brilliantly skewered by The Colbert Report (at minute 5:40).  The Lorax is on track for a preliminary $156 million domestically.            

Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Project X from Warner Brothers should average an okay $6,200 per theater ($18.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Also a limited sample size for this comedy produced by Todd Phillips (The Hangover), but the few reviews are trending slightly negative.  Project X is headed for a total domestic gross of $64 million. 


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 2-4                        Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Lorax                Uni  PG    n/a      $44.0     $156
Project X                WB   R     n/a      $18.5     $ 64


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Fairly typical declines are in store for most holdover films, with Act of Valor the lone returning film headed for over $10 million this weekend.  Best Picture The Artist doubles its theater count from 966 to about 2,000, but the per theater average should drop from about $3,000 to about $2,100 as the film moves into parts of the country that should be less receptive to the silent tribute to the early days of Hollywood.  Still, it should have a hefty 45% increase from last weekend's tally.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 2-4                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Act of Valor             Rel      -47%      $13.0     $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -51%      $ 7.5     $ 40
Journey 2                 WB      -47%      $ 7.2     $120 
Safe House               Uni      -41%      $ 6.5     $133
The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $ 5.2     $133
This Means War           Fox      -44%      $ 4.8     $ 51
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -49%      $ 4.6     $ 55
The Artist              Wein      +45%      $ 4.2     $ 45

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $125 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $121 million (paced by Johnny Depp voicing the Best Animated film Rango), and the same weekend in 2010 was $186 million (paced by Johnny Depp in the huge Alice in Wonderland).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $123 million, up a scant 2% from this weekend last year and down 1% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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Jiang Wen, Ann Hui, Felix Chong all won awards

Tsui Hark hits Jackie Chan on the head courtesy of on.cc

courtesy of mingpao.com

The Hong Kong Directors' Guild last night held its spring banquet and annual award presentation.  The Ann Hui On Wa directed A SIMPLE LIFE (TOH JEH) brought her the Most Outstanding Director of the Year and the Most Recommended Film; she even received the "Honorary Grand Prize".  She thanked the Directors' Guild for this honor.  She said that recently she won many awards.  If she lost her head, she hoped everyone would remind her.

Jiang Wen with LET THE BULLETS FLY won the Most Outstanding Director and The Most Recommended Film.  He said that winning an award in Hong Kong was a little strange, he would never imagine that he would win two.

Stephen Fung Tak Lun revealed that he is working on the film TAI CHI trilogy.  The first two installments have already been completed.  Speaking of Keanu Reeves' MAN OF TAI CHI, he felt that with one being modern and the other costume they had no conflict.  He hoped for a summer release.  He also revealed that his company with Daniel Wu (Ng Yin Cho) is planning a racing film with Derek Yee Tung Sing as its director.    "Ng Yin Cho and I both will perform.  (Will you fight over the lead?)  Let him have it, I will help with the camera!"

courtesy of on.cc

courtesy of takungpao.com

The Van Fan Yat Sun and Chrissie Chau Sun Na starred thriller ANY OTHER SIDE (YEH DIM GWAI TAM) will open in Hong Kong on March 15.  Chau Sau Na in the film played twin sisters, which to her was a huge acting challenge.  She even watched the classic Thai horror film ALONE to experience the character's mental condition in order to achieve the fatal thrill.  Did she set off any spark with the numerous hunks in the film?  Chau Sau Na said that working with Fan Yat Sun and other actors was pleasant.  On the set they often had a lot of fun, of course sparks were inevitable.

In the film Fan Yat Sun and Chau Sau Na had a bathtub scene that originally could be very hot, but they were "out of juice" because the murder scene was very terrifying.  During that scene, everyone already worked all night and it was the last scene before the wrap.  At the time everyone was out of juice and even took the chance to lie in the tub and rest for awhile.  Since his comeback with the film CAPE NO. 7, Fan Yat Sun admitted that she would like to make films of different genres as his CAPE NO. 7 character was still a singer.  he would like the most to write, direct and star i a humorous hero comedy.  This time Fan Yat Sun was a comic book writer who created his own comic book characters, which he played to entertain himself.

courtesy of on.cc

courtesy of mingpao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

Nick Cheung Ka Fai and Kay Tse On Kay promoted the film NIGHTFALL (DAI JUI BO).  Speaking of this performance, Ka Fai's sacrifice was the greatest.

Before the shoot Ka Fai spent a half a year on a hellish weight loss training.  At its peak he was only a little over 110 pounds and his waist was 22 inches.  He remembered that he has not been this thin since he was 15 and admitted that he thought about quitting during the training, but his wife encouraged him.  "Either you don't play, if you do you have to play all out!"  Ka Fai after hearing what his wife said agreed wholeheartedly.

Ka Fai in order to perform well in this film turned down other jobs.  He thought that this film was the most extravagant because in general only Hollywood productions would spent half a year to prepare, but he in turned suffered a lot of losses.  He said, "I turned down 200 to 300 million in film salary, haha!"

This time Ka Fai's character was very dark.  In order to get into character, during the breaks on the set he would only sit quietly.  Others seemed to be afraid of him.  In addition he played a criminal, generally he would not join the actors who played the police and felt very lonely.  Did he have any difficulty leaving the character?  Ka Fai said no, since he has been acting for several decades.

Kay in the film play a cop.  In one scene Ka Fai put a plastic bag over her head and almost suffocated her.  She personally performed that scene.  Yet for different angles, Kay performed over 20 times and Ka Fai felt very sorry.

Kay even injured her arms on the glass on the ground.  After she got her her son saw all the blood on her and was very scared.  She could only think of an excuse to fool her son to keep him from worrying.  Ka Fai also pointed out that when his daughter saw his poster she asked him why he had to hold a gun.

courtesy of singtao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

Raymond Wong Pak Ming and Teddy Robin Kwan yesterday attended Hong Kong Film New Action event.  As one of the show business commission member Wong Pak Ming was asked about Chief Executive candidate Henry Tang Ying-Yen's recent troubles.  He said that before that he already nominated him.  He thought that everyone had advantages and flaws, no one was perfect.  He thought he had more advantages than flaws.

Wong Pak Ming admitted that now he still leans toward supporting Tang Ying-Yen because among the candidates he was more supportive of show business.  Earlier when the government supported the 300 million film development fund, they met at Mr. Tang's home.  Have other candidates campaigned with him?  Wong Pak Ming admitted that no one contacted him and he would not contact them.  His decision would be primary.

Teddy Robin said that he did not know how to discuss politics or religion.  He was not in the commission so he did not want to say much.  Earlier he won a Best Actor award in Australia with MERRY GO ROUND (DUNG FUNG POR), Teddy Robin said that now he has more choices.  However he would not randomly make movies.  Now he mainly is a producer as he has three scripts in preparation.

courtesy of mingpao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

LOVE IN THE BUFF (CHUN GIU YU JI MING) at the end of March will be released.  Both leads Shawn Yue Man Lok and Miriam Yeung Chin Wa looked forward to it very much.  The pregnant Yeung Chin Wa stated that on March 21 she definitely will "apply" to participate in the premiere with her husband.

Chin Wa in the film wore a revealing black dress, which Lok Jai joked that he would never imagine Chin Wa would wear.  In this scene Chin Wa met with her old flame Lok Jai.  He guessed that she would wear a low cut dress but it was a back baring dress that attracted his eyeballs.  This dress was Chin Wa's own.  She said that the team arranged many for her to try but she thought that Chun Giu wanted more, as she should be sexy yet not too deliberate.  She said, "I don't want to bare my chest since there isn't much to see.  So I brought my own dress.  Lok Jai's reaction proved that my decision was right!"

During the shoot they were very focused, except the Spanish dishes on the table distracted him.  Chin Wa and Lok Jai could not help themselves as they sat down and ate whenever the shoot stopped.  The team had to keep ordering to fill in the food that constantly disappeared in extreme speed.  In addition, when they shot in Beijing in one scene Chi Ming went out late with his co-workers; that day the director arranged for 200 extras, most of them were present because they liked director Pang Ho Cheung and knew that Yue Man Lok would be there when they automatically applied.  They were very focused during the shoot.  Instead Lok Jai who felt that he was no longer young was numb to going out at night.

As for Chin Wa who did not go out at night still had fun because she could work while applying a facial mask.  In one scene Chin Wa and her friends chatted while they applied facial masks and ate.

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American Idol came to Tuesday night for a special episode.  Although it won the night, the episode was down 41% from the comparable edition last year and had a relatively limited effect on the other networks, whose ratings were not terribly different from last week. 


             Nightly Adult 18-49 Rating
Tuesday      FOX    CBS    NBC    ABC
02.28.2012   5.0    2.8    2.0    1.5     THIS WEEK
02.21.2012   2.8    2.8    2.1    1.7     LAST WEEK
03.01.2011   7.4    3.9    2.8    2.5     LAST YEAR

As it did on this night last year, FOX pre-empted its Tuesday schedule for a special American Idol.  This year's 5.0 rating for a two-hour episode (featuring the 12 male finalists performing) is down a whopping 41% from the 8.5 rating for the 90-minute episode on this night last year. Comedy returns to FOX Tuesday next week.  Last year on this night, FOX aired American Idol (8.5) from 8:00-9:30 followed by Raising Hope (3.9). 

CBS was even with last week -- a weekly decline in NCIS (down two tenths of a rating point to a season low) was balanced by a four-tenths increase for NCIS: Los Angeles.  Unforgettable continues to drift downward, on track for yet another season low.  Last year CBS averaged a 3.9 on the comparable night:  NCIS (4.8), NCIS Los Angeles (4.0) and Good Wife (2.9).



ABC Tuesday continues to erode, with each program in the line-up down versus last week (most were down two tenths of a rating point) and most programs setting season lows.  The River and Body of Proof are at levels that make a renewal for next season virtually impossible.  Last year on this night ABC was significantly stronger after 9 pm: No Ordinary Family (1.6), V (2.4) and 20/20 (3.5).
 


Facing Idol on FOX, Biggest Loser fell back down to a 2.0 (possibly going up to a 2.1 in the official nationals but still quite low).  Parenthood finished its season with a 1.9 rating, up from recent lows and tied with Unforgettable for a weak first place among the broadcast networks.  Last year on this night: Biggest Loser (2.8) from 8-10 pm and a Parenthood original (2.7).      





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GLOBAL CHINESE SONG CHART

For Thursday, February 23 2012

The top two programs on cable this week aired on Sunday against the not-what-it-used-to-be but still very big Academy Awards on ABC.  Most notable was Walking Dead on AMC at 9:00 pm, just when the awards ceremony was getting rolling.  Facing the huge entertainment special, Walking Dead actually was up over last week, from a 3.6 to a 3.8 rating this week with Adults 18-49.  The zombie drama scored a very credible second place to the Oscars (11.7) and far ahead of NBC's Celebrity Apprentice original episode (1.8), FOX's Family Guy repeat (1.6) and CBS's Mentalist repeat (0.9). 

Earlier in the evening, the NBA All-Star Game faced off mostly against the Red Carpet arrivals shows on ABC and E!.  The offense-heavy game (final score 152-149) scored a 3.3 rating from 7:16 pm on, ahead of the first half hour of ABC's Red Carpet arrivals (2.8 from 7:00-7:30) but falling to a solid second place to ABC's 7:30 (4.0) and 8:00 (6.2) Red Carpet half hours.  The 7:30 portion of the Red Carpet arrivals on E! peaked at a 1.5 rating, a very good number for the second-tier cable network but nothing close to what ABC was able to deliver at the same time.  

Personally, I never understood why broadcast networks, which pay huge license fees to the movie, music and TV academies (as well as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association), don't demand exclusive rights to broadcast live from the Red Carpet.  Yes, it's only a 1.5 rating that E! is delivering, but most of that rating could be added directly to the network's own arrival show.  Of course, Comcast owns both NBC and E! -- so let's put the Golden Globes aside because there is a corporate interest to allow E! at the Beverly Hilton.  But for what ABC pays the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, they should own the event entirely.  If E! wants a live camera, let them set up on a public sidewalk on the other side of Hollywood Blvd.   

Jersey Shore has bottomed out a 2.9 rating Thursday at 10, still enough to make it #1 in the time period this week (ahead of the 2.6 for The Mentalist on CBS).  The 2.0 for Gold Rush on Discovery Friday at 9 pm also puts it comfortably in first place in that hour, ahead of second place Grimm on NBC (1.5).  As we move down the list, the numbers start to fall behind the broadcast competition.  For example, Pawn Stars on History (1.8 Monday at 10:00 and 1.9 at 10:30) falls just behind ABC's Castle (2.1) for fifth place in the hour.

 

courtesy of on.cc

William Chan Wai Ting might not have started as an actor, but due to his looks and potential his past film characters like EX (CHIN DOH)'s unfaithful boyfriend who was stuck between Gillian Chung Yun Tung and Michelle Wai (Si Nga) and HI, FIDELITY (CHOOK GWAI DIK NUI YUN)'s twin brothers left deep impressions.  In order to William to go even further in the film industry, Emperor Motion Pictures decided to make a Wise Guy story TRIAD (JAT JIK) and even tailored a character to him.  It hoped to make him a Dior Cheng Yi Kin successor and a new generation of Wise Guy.

JAT JIK's story reportedly will be very different from past Wise Guy movies.  The story will mainly revolve around how a group of ambitious Wise Guys fight for promotions, the subject is extremely controversial; in order to make William's character stand out, director Daniel Chan Yik Hung deliberately made him a Harvard University student who moved up the ranks in the mob with his brain.  The mob "family punishment" scene would even challenge film standards as William would not only be take a brutal beat on his upper body but also severe injury on his lower body.

William said, "The story hasn't been confirmed yet, so I won't talk about it yet.  We are still talking in meetings."  He admitted that he did not a lot of homework for his new film.  "As a Wise Guy, I have to be big.  The last few months I have been in training and on a diet in order to achieve eight pack abs."  The lead actress will be Emperor artist Si Nga who will play William's girlfriend.

courtesy of on.cc

courtesy of singtao.com

courtesy of mingpao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

Chrissie Chau Sau Na yesterday revealed that for the film BAUHINIA HEROINE 3D (3D JI GAING HUP) she scheduled a motorcycle license test and had to pass, otherwise she would not be able to perform on the motorcycle. She said, "I plan to ask Mommy because she used to constantly ride the motorcycle on grocery runs.  When I was little I constantly rode on the back.  She also said that when I got the license I would give her a ride."  Earlier burning her thigh at work, she had to ride a motorcycle again.  Was she worried about injury?  Chrissie said that she was not.  Accidents were inevitable on the set.  She did not want to use a double and hoped to perform her stunts personally.  She believed that the team would purchase a lot of insurance for her.

Aside from motorcycle, Chrissie also hoped to continue to study acting.  How did she feel about her acting?  She said, "Actually I don't dare to watch my own performance, I would feel embarrassed and get the shakes, but my friends feel that I have improved with every film.  (Which movie of yours would you definitely never watch again?)  I might as well not watch, I would save all my work to study from."

In the future Chrissie would like to try a tragic character because others thought she was very tough.  Actually she too wanted to be protected.  Did she lack someone to protect her in real life?  She said, "Occasionally!  Earlier when we went to Thailand my boyfriend got sick, and I had to take care of him!"

courtesy of on.cc

Andy On is a possible replacement choice courtesy of singtao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

Recent reports claimed that Vincent Zhao Wenzhou was upset at script changes and refused to work on the Donnie Yen Chi Tan produced and starred film DUT SHU SUN FUN (SPECIAL IDENTITY).  The report also said that Yen Chi even called Zhao Wenzhou personally but did not receive any response, and Zhao Wenzhou refused to accept any work order.  Yesterday Zhao Wenzhou's company issued a statement to the media to clarify the matter.  Zhao Wenzhou was not upset at the DUT SHU SUN FUN team.  Any script change would require actor agreement, which was written into the contract and was an industry rule.

The statement also said that Zhao Wenzhou did not pack up and return to Beijing as reported but has always been on the Shenzhen set.  The statement said that the report has not been confirmed with anyone on
the team and was pure speculation.

The report also mentioned that Zhao Wenzhou acted like a big shot with seven assistants.  The statement said that Zhao Wenzhou did not have seven assistants around him and that this report has created negative impact on Zhao Wenzhou and asked the media to issue an apology and a correction.  It would also reserve all rights to take legal action.

courtesy of on.cc

courtesy of mingpao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

Zhang Yimou's favorite Dou Xiao yesterday with Best Actor Nick Cheung Ka Fai and Kay Tse On Kay attended the NIGHTFALL (DAI JUI BO) Beijing press conference.  Dou Xiao in the film played the young Cheung Ka Fai.  Dou Xiao said that although he was unable to work with the Best Actor, he was fortunate enough to promote the new film in Taiwan with Brother Ka Fai and he was very excited.

Dou Xiao also felt that he was somewhat similar to Brother Ka Fai, "Of course we still have differences, he is an elder Best Actor!"  As for the reason that he participated in NIGHTFALL, Dou Xiao revealed that actually the director "fell in love at first sight" with him.  He said, "Director (Roy) Chow Hin Yeung once said to me, finding an actor who can play a young Brother Ka Fai is very hard in Hong Kong.  The director felt that my eyes resembled his so in the end he chose me.  This was also my first movie in Hong Kong.  It was just three short days, for the movie I didn't even have a chance to return to the hotel and rest.  I had my luggage with me the whole time and kept working throughout the night.  Finally after the shoot I went directly to the airport and returned to Beijing."

Cheung Ka Fai in order to better get into character before the shoot spent half a year to train and lose weight.  Finally he got into shape that could rival Bruce Lee's.  Yesterday at the press conference Cheung Ka Fai appeared in a black suit and his fit figure was on display.  He revealed that he suffered a lot during the fitness and diet period for this shape.  "During that period I only had steamed vegetables and chicken.  Once I truly could not tolerate it and ran into a Japanese restaurant fora few pieces of sashimi to satisfy my appetite."

However this was only physical pain, the most painful was becoming isolated on the set.  Cheung Ka Fai complained, "In this film my character due to vocal cord damage couldn't speak.  In order to get into the mood no one on the entire team spoke to me."  Although this was the first time that Ka Fai played a mute, the challenge was not difficult for him at all.

courtesy of mingpao.com

courtesy of takungpao.com

The film THE ALLURE OF TEARS (KING SING JI LUEN) premiere took place two nights ago.  Attending actors included Richie Jen (Yam Yin Chai), Gigi Leung Wing Kei, Aarif Rahman (Lee Chi Ting) and Lawrence Cheng Tan Shui and others.  Three days ago was Lee Chi Ting's 25th birthday and the event celebrated with cake.  During the event, an umbrella fell from above and the actors all jumped back in fright.  Luckily no one was hurt. Later Siu Chai and Gigi were asked if they cross someone.  Gigi joked that perhaps someone could not get Siu Chai's concert ticket.  Siu Chai joked that Lady GaGa's tickets would be more like it.  He said, "Whatever!  Make it my fault then."  However, Siu Chai hoped that everyone would pay attention to safety.  No matter how bad everyone's mood was, no one should do this.  He believed this was a prank.

Gigi in the film had to learn to play the violin and took lessons with violinist Yao Jue, who came in support two nights ago.  Gigi said that she only learned for a little more than a month, thus when she played a scene with the Shanghai symphony orchestra she became to feel guilty.  Siu Chai joked of course, because they brought several million in musical instruments to rehearsal.  They were all valuable collectibles, even the cheapest was 100,000 or so.  Siu Chai said, "Once in the rain we rushed to cover the instruments, not people."

Was Gigi interested in picking up the violin again?  She said that she was not young anymore and truly had difficulty.  Did she play for her husband?  Gigi said yes, because neither knew how to play they thought it was very convincing.  She pointed out that during the shoot, her husband came to Hong Kong and stayed with her at the hotel for three days to learn the violin.  Siu Chai joked, "No wonder you didn't dine with us, with a face full of love!"

Did Lee Chi Ting feel the umbrella was the act of a fan?  He said that would be impossible because he has always been mild mannered and not violent.  He believed that his fans would not do that.  He said luckily no one was hurt.  As for his birthday wish, Lee Chi Ting wished for world peace and a good Hong Kong.