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Showing posts with label john carter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label john carter. Show all posts

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through March 11

John Carter joins the worldwide box office chart, ranked at #13 out of 44 wide-release films over the past three months.  We are currently estimating John Carter could total $75 million in North America, but the overseas total to date is already $70 million.  If the overseas total ends up around $125 million, the film could end up with a worldwide total just behind Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, moving up to a #6 or #7 ranking.  Click "read more" to see the updated chart.

The other films opening this weekend, Silent House and A Thousand Words, are dead last in the worldwide ranking, each with little chance of moving their overseas total above the current level of zero.

The Lorax has only grossed $2 million total to date overseas, in what appears to be an extremely slow rollout beyond North America. 

 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD






John Carter traveled to Mars; the movie with his name also looks beyond the US for some help.

OPENINGS:  JOHN CARTER (Disney) may or may not have grossed over $30M this weekend--we'll find out for sure tomorrow.  (Disney is claiming a not-unreasonable 31% Sunday drop, but it would take only a small slip to push the number below that threshold.)  The more important number, though, in terms of whether it'll be remembered as a historic flop or a mere financial disappointment, is the $71M (which includes pre-Friday grosses in certain territories) being reported overseas.  $17M of that was from Russia alone, but apparently Europe was generally not strong.  On the other hand, the picture is doing well in Asia, and has yet to open in China and Japan.  If Carter can get to a global total of $300M, it won't reach breakeven, but would avoid the embarrassment of a total failure.


A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount), playing as a family comedy (which it really isn't), also had a good Saturday, but that only got it to a pitiful $6.4M.  However, that did beat Meet Dave and Imagine This, so this studio, as well, dodged complete ignominy.  SILENT HOUSE held even on Saturday despite the dreadful CinemaScore grade and is claiming (for now) slightly over $7M for the weekend.

HOLDOVERSTHE LORAX (Universal) ended up with a Saturday that, while huge, wasn't quite up to the initial report (an 80% bump rather than 100%), so it's down 44% for the weekend, still extremely good.  More remarkably, PROJECT X (Warners) was almost in the same place with a 45% drop, excellent for a picture aiming at the teen-male demo.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continued to have very low drops in the low 30% range, while WANDERLUST (Universal) and GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) were heaved out of theatres as quickly as contracts allowed.

OSCAR WINNERSTHE ARTIST (Weinstein) is claiming a mediocre 37% drop that, as with last week, relies on an very high Sunday estimate (a drop of only 25%)--last weekend's total was reduced on Monday, and the same may well happen tomorrow.  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), with a more reasonable 35% estimated Sunday drop, is holding well, down only 31% for the weekend.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) and HUGO (Paramount) are both on their way out of theatres.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) widened again to 281 theatres, and while it still dropped for the weekend as its per-theatre number fell, it's at $4.8M, a superb total for a subtitled Iranian film.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  For an R-rated comedy, FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions) had a terrific Saturday bump of 53%, suggesting very strong word of mouth.  That pushed it to $2.2M in 374 theatres, with a per-theatre number that was below only The Lorax and John Carter in the top 20.  Roadside will widen the run next weekend to 600 theatres.  SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS) had a $13K average. but that was in only 18 theatres, which is only mildly promising.  FOOTNOTE (Sony Classics) and JIRO DREAMS OF SUSHI (Magnolia) had strong NY openings, averaging over $20K per theatre each.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) went from 40 to 60 theatres, and had a decent $2600 per-theatre average.  BEING FLYNN (Focus), though, tripled its theatre count to 12 and still fell for the weekend, as its per-theatre number collapsed.


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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 9-11

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a decent $123 million for the weekend, up 4% from last year's weekend and up 10% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Disney is claiming John Carter will finish the weekend with $30.6 million.  Let's all play pretend and give Disney the pleasure of 24 hours of thinking they crossed the $30 million threshold for the opening weekend.  This seems like a classic case of "rounding up" on Sunday morning to make an opening number seem a little better, but it doesn't change the fact that John Carter is going to be a catastrophe financially: maybe $75 million domestic and $125 million overseas for $200 million worldwide.  Less the theater owners' portion and adding in ancillary revenues like home video, video on demand, TV rights and so on, the studio might keep around $200 million versus a massive $400+ million expenditure on production and marketing. 


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: John Carter ($75 million), Silent House ($13 million) and A Thousand Words ($11 million). 

The second week movies:  Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($220 million, adjusted down slightly) and Project X ($67 million, steady).

The third week movies:  Act of Valor ($73 million, adjusted back down slightly), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($35 million, adjusted down slightly), Wanderlust ($20 million, down slightly) and Gone ($12 million, steady).    



March 9-11                          Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

The Lorax                 (Uni)     $39.1   -44%      $220-
John Carter               (Dis)     $30.6             $ 75
Project X                  (WB)     $11.6   -45%      $ 67
Silent House        (Open Road)     $ 7.0             $ 13
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $ 7.0   -48%      $ 73-
A Thousand Words          (Par)     $ 6.4             $ 11
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 4.9   -33%      $130
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 4.0   -33%      $129
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 3.7   -33%      $ 53
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 3.7   -44%      $102 
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 3.0   -57%      $ 35-
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 2.3   -36%      $ 50



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $123 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #10



     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $123  John Carter $31, Silent House $7, 1000 Words $6

2011  $118  Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010  $136  Green Zone $14, She's Out My League $10
2009  $ 88  Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14

2008  $106  Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
2008-11
Avg   $112





Next Weekend            
 
Opening wide next weekend are 21 Jump Street from Sony starring Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum.  This film will be compared to Limitless ($18.9 million opening weekend), The Lincoln Lawyer ($13.2 million) and Paul ($13.0 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE



It's too little to make any meaningful difference for JOHN CARTER (Disney), but according to Deadline, the giant-budgeted spectacle didn't have a bad Saturday.  Preliminary numbers have Carter rising by around 30% over its Friday total, which could mean a weekend over $30M.  A nice weekend multiple, though, still won't touch the mountain of deficit on this one.  Deadline also reports very early international numbers, which indicate around $15M on Friday (plus $13M earlier in the week) in most of the world except Japan and China, suggesting a $50M or so weekend that's also not terrible, but far from what Carter would need to even dream of breaking even.


A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount) also did well Saturday percentage-wise (up almost 50% from Friday), presumably because despite the PG-13 rating, as a silly comedy it's playing to a family crowd.  But those numbers are even more meaningless than Carter's--it's still headed for around a $6M weekend.  SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) could only hold even on Saturday, and is headed for a $7-8M total.

The weekend was owned by THE LORAX (Universal), which as expected had a huge Saturday, doubling its Friday, and what should be around a $42M weekend, down only about 40% from its big opening.  Other holdovers were in keeping with their Friday estimates.

Read Mitch Metcalf's WEEKEND BOXOFFICE PREDICTIONS, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!

 


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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD







Moral of the weekend:  If you're going to spend $250M+ on a movie, check first whether anyone wants to see it.

OPENINGS:  With a probable $27-28M opening, just how big a flop is JOHN CARTER (Disney) going to be?  Hard to tell until full weekend and international numbers are in.  But its sheer cost--probably at least $400M when worldwide marketing is included, and very possibly $500M--dwarfs such famous flops of the past as Ishtar and Heaven's Gate, both made in the 1980s when marketing costs were a fraction of what they are now, and even last year's huge bomb Mars Needs Moms, which cost around $100M less.  The movie is mediocre; the decision to green-light it at that budget was insane.  


At a far lesser level of failure (financially, at least), SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) is headed for a $6-7M weekend and probably won't crack $20M in total (especially with an ugly "F" from CinemaScore), but with a tiny budget and limited marketing, it won't cause anyone much damage.  A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount/DreamWorks) is only hitting theatres after 3 years because Paramount would have had accounting consequences had it been held off the market any longer.  It's heading for a similar total to Silent House at a much higher cost.  The amazing factoid is that if it can manage to scrape together a weekend above $5.5M, it'll still be higher than 2 of Eddie Murphy's last 5 openings, beating both Meet Dave and Imagine That.  And this:  with the exception of the Shrek movies and Dreamgirls, Murphy's last $100M grosser was Dr. Dolittle 2 in 2001.

HOLDOVERS:  With no direct competition, THE LORAX (Universal) is having a strong 2d weekend, down only 40-45% from its giant opening (and easily winning the weekend).  More surprisingly, PROJECT X (Warners) is holding up fine, with a similar percentage drop.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems.  /Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold up best, with drops of only around 30%, while GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit), WANDERLUST (Universal) and GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) are collapsing as they get dumped by theatres.

OSCAR WINNERSTHE ARTIST (Weinstein)'s post-Oscar bump didn't last long, as word-of-mouth and a wide audience continue to elude the film (permanently, we can now say).  A 40% weekend drop puts it in line for around $45M in total.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), in its final pre-homevideo weekend, and HUGO (Paramount), already available at home, face similar declines.  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), though, is holding on well with only a 25% fall.

LIMITED RELEASE:  FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions) is trying a quasi-limited opening at 374 theatres, with fairly decent results for that kind of release, probably close to a $5K average per theatre that should give it around a $2M start.  On a much smaller scale, SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS) should have an OK average of around $10K in only 18 big-city theatres.  The Israeli FOOTNOTE (Sony Classics), with rave reviews, is headed for a very nice $20K average in 2 NY theatres.  BEING FLYNN (Focus) tripled its theatre count to 12, and will be lucky to hold even for the weekend, as its per-theatre average plummeted.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The big arrival is the Channing Tatum/Jonah Hill comedy revamp of 21 JUMP STREET (Sony), which is garnering remarkably strong early reviews.  2 more offbeat comedies will open in smaller releases;  JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME (Paramount Vantage) and Will Ferrell's Spanish-language CASA DE MI PADRE (Lionsgate).  


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FRIDAY MARCH 9 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

The tenth weekend of 2012 is looking to be solid in terms of total business but not at the runaway pace of the past few weeks.  The weekend is running 3% ahead of last year's same weekend and 8% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  The Lorax will remain the #1 film this weekend, down a typical 45% from its strong opening.  Needing an outstanding performance, John Carter is looking like a $27 million opening weekend, which would would be fine if the studio hadn't spent hundreds of millions of dollars making it, re-shooting it and marketing it worldwide.  Silent House and A Thousand Words with Eddie Murphy are opening very quietly, and will leave the scene quickly.      

John Carter from Disney opened with $9.6 million Friday for an estimated $27.4 million for Friday-Sunday, in line with the $26.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The science-fiction/ action film is averaging $7,300 on 3,746 screens, nowhere near the opening this expensive film would need to have even a remote shot at making its money back.  The film now has 50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and a "B+" CinemaScore grade from opening night audiences.  Mitch Salem is decidedly negative in his review.  Not the signs of terrific word of mouth.  John Carter is headed for a preliminary $67 million total domestic, which will certainly feed the Town's schadenfreude for the current Disney film regime. 

Silent House (from Open Road Films) opened with $2.6 million Friday for $6.6 million Friday-Sunday, falling far behind the modest $10.0 million ShowBuzzDaily prediction.  The horror film should average around only $3,100 at 2,124 theaters this weekend.  Silent House is headed for a preliminary $12 million domestic.  Currently 49% positive reviews for Silent House at RottenTomatoes, but the film received the dreaded "F" CinemaScore, according to Deadline.  Read Mitch Salem's review.

Finally, there's Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words (Paramount) opened with $1.9 million Friday and headed for $5.7 million this weekend, somewhat above our horrific $4.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Firmly in bomb territory, the film is averaging $3,030 at only 1,890 theaters.  The film is headed for maybe $9 million domestic when it leaves theaters.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
March 9-11, 2012        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final


The Lorax (Uni)          [$41.0]    $39.2   $ 9.5     $220
John Carter (Dis)        [$26.0]    $27.4   $ 9.6     $ 67
Project X (WB)           [$10.5]    $11.8   $ 4.0     $ 68
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$ 7.5]    $ 7.2   $ 2.0     $ 74
Silent House (Open Road) [$10.0]    $ 6.6   $ 2.6     $ 12
A Thousand Words (Par)   [$ 4.5]    $ 5.7   $ 1.9     $  9
Safe House (Uni)         [$ 4.7]    $ 5.1   $ 1.3     $131 
The Vow (Sony)           [$ 3.6]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $130
Journey 2 (WB)           [$ 3.9]    $ 4.1   $ 0.8     $103
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 3.5]    $ 4.0   $ 1.2     $ 54
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$ 3.5]    $ 3.2   $ 0.8     $ 36
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ ---]    $ 2.2   $ 0.5     $ 51
The Artist (Wein)        [$ ---]    $ 2.1   $ 0.6     $ 49



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $121 million total Friday-Sunday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #10


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $121  John Carter $27, Silent House $6.6, 1000 Words $5.5

2011  $118  Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010  $136  Green Zone $14, She's Out My League $10
2009  $ 88  Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14

2008  $106  Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
2008-11
Avg   $112


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE





Deadline's preliminary numbers for Friday have JOHN CARTER (Disney) at around $10M for the day, which depending on how much it plays as a family movie on Saturday, should mean a $25-30M weekend.  That's not a horribly low number--it's one of the half-dozen highest openings of the year so far--unless you're trying to earn back a $350-400M investment, in which case, oops.  In any case, it's clearly 2d place for this weekend, behind Weekend 2 of THE LORAX (Universal), which also had a $10M Friday, but which will definitely ramp up with weekend matinees to a likely $40M total.  PROJECT X (Warners) is headed for a $10-11M 2d weekend with a $3.5M Friday, which means a standard 50% weekend drop--really better than average, considering the movie's fast-burning teen genre.



The weekend's other openings are well behind.  SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) has around a $2.5M Friday en route to a $6-7M weekend, unimpressive even for a low-budget thriller.  And as expected, the long-delayed Eddie Murphy flop A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount), riding an extraordinary 0% from Rotten Tomatoes (that's 34 straight bad reviews), should pull in $2M on Friday for a $5-6M weekend on its way to oblivion.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!

 

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THE SHOWBUZZDAILY REVIEW: "John Carter"




JOHN CARTER:  Watch It At Home - Never Goes Into Orbit

All signs suggest that JOHN CARTER will be a financial failure of historic proportions, mostly because of its colossal cost (Disney admits to $250M, which almost certainly means close to $300M when reshoots and last-minute CG are included--and that doesn't count the $100-150M of a big-time global marketing campaign).  It would be fun to pile on and lambaste the movie as an embarrassing fiasco, or alternatively to be contrarian and point to it as an overlooked, underrated pop masterpiece, but the truth is much more tedious:  it's just a mediocre time-waster that happened to cost a ton of money.


John Carter may run short in some areas, but no one can accuse it of lacking plot.  The script by director Andrew Stanton, Mark Andrews and (separately) novelist Michael Chabon is based on the novel "Princess of Mars" by Edgar Rice Burroughs, and it incorporates Burroughs himself (Daryl Sabara) into an elaborate framing device, in which he's a young relative of Carter's (Taylor Kitsch), summoned home after Carter's sudden death in 1881.  The story is instantly fishy--Carter's body is in a tomb that's been specially rigged to open only from the inside--although we have to wait for the end of the movie for it to pay off.    

Meanwhile, Burroughs reads the journal Carter left for him (cue the voice-over narration), and the main body of the story begins.  Carter, a former Confederate soldier, was prospecting for gold--and had actually found a lot of it--in 1868 when he was dragooned by an evil Army officer (Bryan Cranston) into fighting Native Americans.  He goes exploring in a cave where he happens to touch a magic crystal just as the mysterious, dying other inhabitant of the cave finishes saying some magic words, and instantly finds himself--

On Mars, of course,  Or Barsoom, which he discovers is the natives' name for the planet.  (Earth is Jarsoom, in case you were wondering.)  Where Carter, thanks to lower gravity and different bone density, can leap whole buildings in a single bound (or two at most).  He finds himself embroiled in a war between 3 factions of the natives:  the green 4-armed warrior Tharks (CG creations with the voices of Willem Dafoe as their leader and Samantha Morton as his daughter); the humanoid Heliums, led by King Tardos Mos (Ciaran Hinds) and his daughter, Dejah Thoris (Lynn Collins), who's a scientist the way Denise Richards was a nuclear expert in The World Is Not Enough; and the bad-guy Zodangas, whose leader Sab Than (Dominic West) wants to destroy the Tharks and Heliums or marry Dejah, whichever comes first.  Actually, the real villains are the non-Martian (I think) Therns, who are led by Matai Shang (Mark Strong), and who are meaner versions of the Watchers from Fringe who can change identity at will and feed off warfare and planetary destruction (don't ask).  Oh, and there's a friendly giant hippopotamus/dog creature who seems to have wandered in from one of Stanton's Pixar movies and likes to lick Carter's face and rescue him.

You can appreciate the ambitions of Stanton and his team--they were honestly trying to tell an epic story much classier than, say, Prince of Egypt--but the narrative is overlong, tiresome and uninvolving.  The script is loaded with one howler line of dialogue after another (even after Carter has sipped a magic potion that enables him to understand and speak Martian, all the characters sound like they're being translated from the Tharkan).  Stanton doesn't seem to want to acknowledge how silly all this is, and playing it straight just makes the movie even campier than it had to be.

There are fine actors in the cast, but Stanton, whose first live-action movie this is, handles them badly--the Burroughs books were an acknowledged influence on the Star Wars movies, and Stanton seems have absorbed that in the worst possible way, drawing clunky, flat line-readings from almost all his performers.  (That's not what you're supposed to steal from George Lucas, man!)  Kitsch can act, we know that from Friday Night Lights, but his low-key, naturalistic strengths don't lend themselves at all to big-scale action-movie performing, and he and Collins couldn't have less chemistry (Kitsch only seems comfortable acting with the 4-armed green Tharks).  As the villains, Strong and West both look like they're mentally on their respective bank websites, paying some bills.

Stanton has achieved some CG feats:  the Tharks are wonderfully done, and there are Martian landscapes with genuine grandeur (of course, these are the parts of the movie most akin to the animation world from which Stanton comes).  The action sequences, though, are a mess, confusingly edited and mistaking rushing for rousing.  

John Carter isn't a shameful failure; it's just a failure.  It's Disney and not the filmmakers that has to take the blame for the size of the hole the movie going to make in the studio's earnings.


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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 9-11

The tenth weekend of the year should generate about $122 million for the top 12 films, a slightly better than normal weekend for the second weekend in March -- up 4% from last year's comparable weekend and up 10% from the four-year average for this weekend.  John Carter will be the top opener, but it should be far behind the second weekend of The Lorax, which has a firm grip on first place.  As for the other openers, Silent House should open with a quiet $10 million, while Eddie Murphy's A Thousand Words should bomb with less than $5 million.   



Opening at over 3,500 theaters, John Carter from Disney should average a slightly-above-average $7,500 per theater (for $26.0 million Friday-Sunday), putting this very expensive movie on a solid pace to lose a lot of money.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 60% positive, a decent score for a science-fiction/ adventure film and suggesting the film could drop closer to 50% instead of 65% in its second weekend.  But a decent hold does no good if the film's opening weekend base is only $26 million.  John Carter is on track for a preliminary $65 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,100 theaters, Silent House from Open Road Films should average an unspectacular $4,800 per theater ($10.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Early reviews for this horror film written, produced and co-directed by Laura Lau are also currently 60% positive.  Silent House is headed for a total domestic gross of $27 million. 

Opening in around 1,500 theaters, A Thousand Words from Paramount should average a stillborn $3,000 per theater ($4.5 million Friday-Sunday).  No reviews yet for this comedy-drama starring almost-Oscar host Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words is headed for a total domestic gross of $9 million and an early exit from theaters. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 9-11                       Positive   Weekend   Total*

John Carter             Dis  PG13  59%      $26.0     $ 65
Silent House            Open R     60%      $10.0     $ 27
A Thousand Words        Par  PG13  n/a      $ 4.5     $  9


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The Lorax will reign supreme in its second weekend, down a better-than-average 41% to $41 million this weekend.  The real race in the irrelevant (but still fun to watch) weekend standings is for third place between Silent House and Project X.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 9-11                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 

The Lorax                Uni      -41%      $41.0     $230
Project X                WB       -51%      $10.5     $ 68
Act of Valor             Rel      -45%      $ 7.5     $ 77
Safe House               Uni      -37%      $ 4.7     $129
Journey 2                WB       -41%      $ 3.9     $102

The Vow                  Sony     -40%      $ 3.6     $130
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -49%      $ 3.5     $ 39
This Means War           Fox      -37%      $ 3.5     $ 51


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $118 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $136 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $122 million, up 4% from this weekend last year and up 10% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years



3/11/11

 Battle: Los Angeles SONY PG13 Aaron Eckhart Michelle Rodriguez 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $32  Actual: $36
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $91  Actual: $84
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $128

 Red Riding Hood WB PG13 Amanda Seyfried Gary Oldman 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $19  Actual: $14
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $39  Actual: $38
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $52

 Mars Needs Moms DIS PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $28  Actual: $21
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $18

3/12/10

 Green Zone UNI R Matt Damon Jason Isaacs 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $21  Actual: $14
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $39  Actual: $35
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $60

 Remember Me SUMMIT PG13 Robert Pattinson Emilie de Ravin 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $18  Actual: $19
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $37

 She's Out of My League PAR R Jay Baruchel Alice Eve 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $35  Actual: $32
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $17

 Our Family Wedding FOX PG13 Forest Whitaker America Ferrera  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $18  Actual: $20
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $1


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD





There are good movies and there are hits, and given the choice, there's never been any doubt which Hollywood prefers.

OPENINGS:  A March filled to the brim with wannabe blockbusters is off to a big start.  THE LORAX (Universal) may be a bad movie (spoiler alert--it is), but the studio sold the hell out of it, and the result looks to be the all-quadrant hit Universal dreamed of.  The opening day for Lorax was almost 25% higher than the Friday for Horton Hears A Who! in March 2008, and that one got to $154M, so $200M is certainly in reach (Horton happened to be a better movie, but we'll see if that means much).  Also helping:  no real competition until Mirror Mirror and Wrath of the Titans open on March 30.


Also opening well (and at least as bad) is PROJECT X (Warner Bros), the latest "found-footage" contraption.  Its $8.1M Friday is only slightly behind the $8.6M for Chronicle, February's found-footage picture, and while Project's trajectory downward may be faster (Chronicle rose 18% on Saturday on good word-of-mouth, which Project will be hard pressed to match), that could still put it in the neighborhood of a $20M weekend and $50M total, not bad for a picture that has a $12M budget and lower-than-usual reliance on expensive TV marketing.

HOLDOVERSACT OF VALOR (Relativity) and WANDERLUST (Universal) should go down a standard 45-50% in their second weekends, but oddly enough, the given-up-for-dead GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is holding extremely well and may decline less than 40%.  Amanda Seyfried fans?  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) will fall the heavy 60% or so that's typical for Tyler Perry's movies.  Also collapsing this weekend is JOURNEY 2 (Warners), which held like a champ for several weeks but got poleaxed by The LoraxSAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold well, although in the case of the latter, that will still only get it to around $50M.  Worth noting farther down the list is that PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) is now headed for only around $45M, which means with the cost of 3D conversion and marketing, the re-release may remarkably have to scrape just to break even--we'll see how quickly Attack of the Clones 3D hits theatres after this.

OSCAR WINNERS:  Even with the Best Picture Oscar and the giant publicity that comes with it, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) managed only a mild bump at the box-office.  Its theatre count increased by over 80%, but it's headed for only a 20-25% higher gross this weekend.  Artist now seems unlikely to reach $50M at the US boxoffice, which would make it the first Best Picture winner in current theatrical release (unlike The Hurt Locker, which was already on homevideo when the awards were presented) not to hit that mark since The Last Emperor in 1987, a film that made $44M at a time when those dollars had 25 years worth of higher value.  (For a real, inflation-adjusted equivalent, you'd have to go back to the pre-homevideo era.)  Meanwhile THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) rode its Best Actress Oscar to a 10-15% increase.  Winners in the lesser categories had no Oscar benefit:  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) dropped 20% of its theatres and will decline 40-45%, and HUGO (Paramount), now out on homevideo, lost about 15% of its theatres and will fall 20-25%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  The first major indie of 2012, BEING FLYNN (Focus) didn't muster much enthusiasm at the boxoffice (sadly, for good reason) and may only get to around an $11K average at 4 theatres.  TIM AND ERIC'S BILLION DOLLAR MOVIE (Magnolia), also available on VOD, is headed for perhaps a $5K average at 24.

NEXT WEEK:  The knives have been sharpening for weeks, but is JOHN CARTER (Disney) really as bad as the buzz suggests?  It will, at least, have the weekend almost to itself, as the "single-take" (not really) SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) and the long-delayed Eddie Murphy vehicle A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount) are only opening in roughly half as many theatres.  2 romantic comedies also arrive in limited release:  FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions), which has a terrific cast that includes Jon Hamm, Kristin Wiig, Adam Scott and Maya Rudolph, and SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS), with the somewhat less marketable Ewan McGregor and Emily Blunt. 

 


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THE SKED MOVIE PROMO WATCH: OSCAR NIGHT EDITION





The Academy limits the number of movie ads that can be aired on the Oscar telecast (until recent years, they didn't allow any), so as not to make the night look like the awards are shilling for the studios.  (God forbid!)  It's not clear whether that's the reason only 2 movie promos made it into the telecast itself or if no one else wanted to pay the hefty tab for an Oscar spot, but several other studios did crowd into the pre-show.  A quick rundown:

MIRROR MIRROR (Universal) - 30 sec - The studio took out 2 different 30 second spots in the pre-show, both of which played up the movie's comedy, but this time concentrating on the dwarfs (who can apparently adjust their size) instead of Julia Roberts, as the first ads did.  The movie opens March 30, so the more intensive part of its campaign should soon be underway.  


THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate) - 30 sec - Pretty much the same spot the studio has been airing since the Super Bowl, with a few shots swapped out.  The campaign, so far, continues to emphasize the set-up of the Games rather than the more action-oriented Games sequences themselves that presumably take up the bulk of the movie.  Lionsgate is hoping this is going to be their Twilight, and with a March 23 opening around the corner, ads should be multiplying like crazy very soon.

THE LORAX (Universal) - 15 sec - A somewhat different spot from the ones we've seen.  It doesn't play up the quest part of the story (find the real trees!) or Danny DeVito and his "That's a woman?!?" line.  Instead, the promo plays off the question of whether Loraxes (Loraxi?) are real.  The movie opens Friday, so all its spots are now in heavy rotation.

JOHN CARTER (Disney) - 30 sec - Now Disney is attempting to make John Carter look like a critical hit, with quotes from reviewers no one has ever heard of (the cynical among us may doubt that the real reviews will be quite as thrilled).  The movie opens March 9 and as is widely known by now, the advance tracking is apparently dismal, so the spot is all action, trying to play up the spectacle bought by the reported $250-300M budget.

BRAVE (Disney) - 30 sec - A very classy spot (carefully timed to run just after Best Animated Film was presented) with just one line of voice-over and gorgeous visuals.  It seems designed by Pixar to wipe the taste of Cars 2 out of our mouths long before Brave arrives in June.

TITANIC (Paramount) - 30 sec - You play Celine Dion, show Kate and Leo, have a few shots of the boat going down, and announce that it's now in 3D--that's pretty much the campaign, and what more do they need?  The spot ended with a quick URL for a website where people can buy tickets for a "sneak preview" the night before the official April 4 opening.

Of course, the most notorious movie "ad" of the night was Sacha Baron Cohen's shameless huckstering of THE DICTATOR, which bought the movie millions in free pre-release publicity about his expected awards antics.  The Academy, while letting him do this thing, kept him the hell off their air, including the official pre-show.  Nevertheless, he was able to get plenty of media attention by dumping an urn of "Kim Jong-Il's ashes" on Ryan Seacrest, live on E!   Mission accomplished.



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THE SKED'S MOVIE PROMO WATCH: Grammys Edition




Tonight's Grammy Awards were inevitably somewhat haunted by the awful loss of Whitney Houston barely 24 hours earlier, a tragedy that seemed to have been going on for a decade yet was still shocking when it came to its fruition.  Nevertheless, the show found time to include innumerable music numbers, some of them saluting artists in the CBS demo like The Beach Boys, Paul McCartney, Glen Campbell and Bruce Springsteen, but also an odd Nicki Minaj salute to The Devil Inside, and what appeared to be Katy Perry's very public middle finger to Russell Brand.  Although the actual awards always seem to be of secondary importance on this broadcast, everything that wasn't nailed down went (deservedly, in one listener's opinion) to Adele. 

The Grammys aren't quite the Super Bowl when it comes to movie ads--studios don't pay millions to promote films that won't be opening for months--but it's still a show that gathers a relatively young (especially for CBS) and clearly, considering the featured movies, female audience, and as such it serves as a showcase for quite a few films opening soon.  Here's what the show had for movie fans:


THE LORAX (Universal) - :30 - Featuring stars Taylor Swift and Zac Efron, who have been known to warble a tune every now and then.

THE VOW (Sony/Screen Gems) - :15 - The only current release in the show, this spot was notable for making Vow look much more like a romantic comedy than it actually is.  This could indicate the studio's hope to broaden its audience beyond the weepie crowd as the picture continues in theatres.

JOHN CARTER (Disney) - :30 - One of the few action movies that figured into the evening (possibly on the theory that a shirtless Taylor Kitsch transcends genre).  This was the first promo that attempted to explain just who John Carter is and what what he's doing on Mars, which made it a welcome relief after the incomprehensible Super Bowl spot.

THIS MEANS WAR (20th) - :30 - The film is opening Friday (with sneak previews on Tuesday night), so its ads are in high rotation throughout all network schedules.  One change in this spot from the first wave is that it shows the moment when Reese Witherspoon realizes that both her beaus Tom Hardy and Chris Pine know each other.  This makes her appear a little less clueless, and also allows her to deliver the music-appropriate line "I'm Yoko!"

PROJECT X (Warners) - :30: - Yet another "found footage" movie, this time recounting a teen party from hell and (not coincidentally) produced by Todd Phillips, director of the Hangover movies.  This is a very young-skewing picture, so its promos probably won't be making many more appearances on CBS.

THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate) - :30 - Mostly the same promo that aired on the Super Bowl, but slightly re-edited to emphasize heroine Katniss' feelings about leaving her sister in lieu of spectacle.

21 JUMP STREET (Sony/MGM) - :30 - The same cut-down version of the theatrical trailer that's been running for a while.  It'll be interesting to see if the giant success of The Vow prompts some Channing Tatum-intensive spots between now and the opening.

ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) - :15 - The other action movie of the night, this promo, despite its short length, found time to name the country music stars who supplied songs for the soundtrack.

GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate) - :15 - The latest from Tyler Perry, it appears to be about a man named Deeds who decides he has to start doing good.  No one can accuse the title of being false advertising.  (Coming soon from Tyler Perry:  "Return of the Man In Woman Clothes.")

WANDERLUST (Universal) ) - :30 - Like most of the spots for this Paul Rudd/Jennifer Aniston comedy, this plays up the "Omigod, they're hippies!" aspect of the commune where the lead couple goes to recharge their batteries.


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THE SKED'S MOVIE PROMO WATCH: Super Bowl Edition


In these heady moments after the NY Giants' triumphant victory over the New England Patriots (I'd say "Sorry, New England fans," but I wouldn't mean it), let's take a moment to look at the other major event of the evening:  the ads for upcoming movies.  (Mitch Metcalf will offer a separate take on NBC's use of its promo time during the broadcast, which somewhat surprisingly wasn't as Smash-intensive as one might have expected.)



The average cost of a 30-second ad on the Super Bowl is $3.5M, so this isn't where you'll see promotion for the latest Sundance sensation.  With just a couple of exceptions, the ads were almost all for big-budget action extravaganzas, split between movies opening in the next few weeks and summer tentpoles looking to generate some buzz.

They were also, without any exception at all, unimpressive--basically lazy cut-down versions of trailers that have already been running for weeks if not months.  

Actually, the most interesting movie-ish ads of the night were the ones that weren't for movies at all, but which used motifs and stars from Hollywood.  These included an Audi ad inspired by Twilight and its young vampires (are bright headlights really such a selling point that it was worth $3.5M to plug them?), a follow-up to last year's VW ad that featured Star Wars characters--including a junior Darth Vader--in an outer-space caintina, a Hyundai piece in which all the employees sang the theme from Rocky (way to be topical, Hyundai!), the much-hyped Honda ad that riffed off Ferris Bueller's Day Off (but disappointingly featured only Matthew Broderick from the original cast).  Most notable of all was probably an ad for Dodge that didn't relate back to any specific movie, but which by using Clint Eastwood as its gnarled, spirit-of-America spokesman seemed like Hollywood history personified.  (It also resembled a Presidential campaign spot so closely that you half-expected it to end with "My name is Clint Eastwood and I approved this ad.")

Anyway, here were the movie spots themselves.  Note that this list covers the Super Bowl telecast itself (including the pre-kickoff half hour) and not the pre- or post- shows.  Lionsgate, for one, saved a few bucks by airing its Hunger Games ad during the pre-show.  For whatever reason, the movie commercials were mostly crammed into the game's 2d quarter.

SAFE HOUSE (Universal) - 30 seconds pre-kickoff:  One of the many trailer cut-downs, for a movie opening next Friday.  Mostly a quick-cut montage of things blowing up, interspersed with Denzel Washington looking intense and Ryan Reynolds looking clueless.  (As it happens, that's a fairly accurate summary of the movie.)

THE DICTATOR (Paramount) - 30 seconds pre-kickoff:  This spot for the Sacha Baron Cohen comedy opening in May at least put in a little effort by including an NBC gag (albeit a lame one).  After that, it recycled what appear to be the movie's 2 big jokes:  Megan Fox playing herself for a Kardashian gag (ha ha, they're hairier than she is) and the track race where Cohen's dictator shoots all his competitors.

BATTLESHIP (Universal) - 60 seconds 2d Quarter:  Universal spent $7M on this spot to tell us 2 things:  whatever the title says, Battleship is really Transformers 4, and please forget about the "battleship" part.  There were far more shots of round fiery alien things (which seem to have borrowed Mickey Rourke's laser whip from Iron Man 2), jet planes, and buildings blowing up than there were shot of the title boat.  Also, Liam Neeson is stalwart and Taylor Kitsch is heroic, which could conveniently be compared to--

JOHN CARTER (Disney) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter:  Another Kitsch vehicle (in this one he's shirtless), and the worst ad of the evening, thanks to an amateurish looking visual concept that had the footage from the movie receding until it was tiny and fading into a mosaic of the movie's title, made up of even tinier footage.  It made the Disney marketing department look like they'd all just gotten their first iPad app.  The footage itself continues to make the incredibly expensive Carter, which opens in just a month, seem like Dances With Wolves set on a planet full of Jar-Jar Binks lookalikes. 

THE LORAX (Universal) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter:  The oddest choice for a Super Bowl ad (one has to wonder whether the preponderance of Universal titles indicates a cut rate for NBC's home studio), this animated Dr. Seuss comedy opens next month.  The promo itself was mostly footage from the trailer, and continues to push hard on the Danny DeVito "That's a woman?!?" line. 

STAR WARS EPISODE 1:  THE PHANTOM MENANCE (20th/Lucasfilm): Thinking of Jar-Jar Binks... in case you didn't know, this ad told you it's back this Friday, and in 3D.  Jake Lloyd fans, order your tickets now.  

THE AVENGERS (Paramount/Disney) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter (the 2-minute warning slot):  This is the kickoff movie to the summer movie season, and it used its 30 seconds unimaginatively but effectively.  The whole spot was basically summed up in its final shot, which circled around for a roll-call of all the familiar characters who will appear in the movie:  Iron Man, Captain America, The Hulk, Thor, Scarlett Johansson as whoever she played in Iron Man 2, etc.

G.I. JOE - RETALIATION (Paramount) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter:  Um, where exactly was G.I. Joe in this?  We saw plenty of The Rock, and the spot made clear that Bruce Willis (playing Joe Sr) is in the house, but there wasn't a clear shot of Channing Tatum in the whole thing.  The result just looked like a generic boom-boom movie (maybe The Expendables 2?), although it did try to establish how cool it's going to be by citing Jay Z.  The movie doesn't open until late June, and should use the time to work on its message.

ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) - 30 seconds 4th Quarter:  The gimmick of this picture is that the cast is made up of actual Navy Seals who are on active duty (don't they have other things to do?), and Relativity accomplished what was no doubt its goal:  show things blowing up and make it look like this relatively low-budgeted flick is as filled with high-velocity action as the epics surrounding it.  Apart from that, the movie remains a mystery.

That was it:  nothing from the upcoming Sony (Men In Black 3, The Amazing Spider-Man), Fox (Prometheus, Abraham Lincoln:  Vampire Hunter) or Warners (The Dark Knight Rises) blockbusters, those studios having decided that their millions could be better spent when their movies are closer to launch. 

By the way, the best ad of the night in any genre?  The Doritos bit with the homicidal but very clever dog. 



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