Movie Box Review

Now the only question is when they announce the start of  pre-production on LORAX 2.

OPENINGS:  It turned out THE LORAX (Universal) wasn't frontloaded at all.  Quite the contrary, its 80% Saturday bump put the movie through the roof, a triumph of great marketing over cruddy filmmaking.  Lorax is currently the 3d highest March opening ever, but only $185K behind 300 at #2, so even a slight overperformance on Sunday could lift it up.  PROJECT X (Warners) slipped a bit on Saturday, but even if its Sunday is overestimated, it should still be safely over $20M for the weekend, a very good score for a relatively low-budget studio release.  (The result, unfortunately, will be more lousy "found-footage" movies.)

HOLDOVERS:  Thanks to a nice spread of genres in the Top 10, most of the older movies are holding quite well.  The only 3 movies in the Top 12 to dip more than 45% were JOURNEY 2 (Warners), which was direct competition for Lorax, GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) with a 55% drop that was in keeping with Tyler Perry's pictures, and GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), which was already mid-collapse.  Particularly notable were the tiny respective drops for SAFE HOUSE (Universal) - 34%, THIS MEANS WAR (20th) - 33%, and the (deservedly) much-maligned GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) - 36%.

OSCAR WINNERS:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), the 2d least popular Best Picture winner of the last quarter-century (and the lowest among films still in theatrical release when the awards were given out) raised its post-awards theatre count by 80% and could only manage a 34% bump.  And even that number is shaky, because Artist is claiming by far the lowest Sunday decline of the weekend's top movies, so it may well slipi down (and fall out of the Top 10) tomorrow.  Similarly, its stablemate THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is claiming a 30% weekend increase that relies on a tiny estimated Sunday drop.  Back in the non-Weinstein world, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost many of its theatres and fell 36%, and HUGO (Paramount) dropped 14%.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) tripled its theatres off its Foreign Language Film win, and gratifyingly went over the $1M mark for the weekend in 243 houses.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  BEING FLYNN (Focus) created little excitement with a $11K average at only 4 theatres, and TIM & ERIC'S BILLION DOLLAR MOVIE (Magnolia) could only get to a $4K average in 24.    IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics) lost the Foreign-Language Oscar but tried increasing its theatre count by 50% anyway--the result was a 17% drop for the weekend.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another picture that was hoping for Oscar love it didn't get, more than doubled its theatres to 40, and averaged a decent $3300.  

Well, that didn't last long.

After an Oscars+1 day where Best Picture winner THE ARTIST had the smallest Monday decline of any movie in the Top 10,  by Tuesday the glow was gone.  On a day when almost every Top 10 film was significantly up, ccording to Box Office Mojo, Artist had an increase of only 13%.  This made it 8th in the Top 10, behind THE VOW (38%), THIS MEANS WAR (21%), WANDERLUST (21%),  and even the disastrous GONE (35%), among others.

Fellow Oscar winners THE IRON LADY (17%) and THE DESCENDANTS (14%) were in a similar boat, and HUGO was up only 7%, although the latter has the excuse of also being released on homevideo yesterday.

The Weinstein Company will of course be expanding Artist's theatre count on Friday, so its overall weekend gross may very well be its highest to date.  But there's little sign, even with its Oscar wins, that Artist will ever become any kind of popular hit.

It's a measure of how desperately this year's Oscar needed some kind of surprise that the closest thing to a thrill all evening was Meryl Streep's win as Best Actress.  Streep has been winning Academy Awards since 1979, and she'd been touted for her performance as Margaret Thatcher since months before THE IRON LADY even opened.  By virtually every measure, she'd been a close 2d to Viola Davis as favorite all along.  One could even make the argument that choosing Streep over Davis was actually the more conservative move in the category.  (And a bittersweet one, because although Streep--despite her protestations--will almost certainly have more chances at the prize before she's done, it might not be so easy for Davis to climb that hill again.)  And yet, when Streep's name was announced, it was the night's only jolt of electricity:  Something Finally Happened!

Streep's victory also underscored, for anyone who doubted, that Harvey Weinstein is the master of his era's (maybe any era's) Oscar gamesmanship.  Streep had been a strong contender for THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA and for JULIE AND JULIA, and both times she'd been denied.  Iron Lady was the least successful, least-seen and least-liked of Streep's recent vehicles, but Weinstein's absolutely unapologetic willingness to play the card of "winning 29 years ago is like not winning at all," stressed in every Streep-for-Best-Actress ad, did the trick.  

Weinstein was also behind another surprise, the victory of UNDEFEATED for Best Feature Documentary over the favored PINA and PARADISE LOST 3.  (He can't claim the night's below-the-line shocker when THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO took Best Editing.)  And of course, he was the architect of the night's most inevitable set of victories, as THE ARTIST marched to the podium every time it really counted.

Apart from the Weinstein brigade, the Oscars were mostly widely scattered, as THE DESCENDANTS, THE HELP and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS each won a single award, Christopher Plummer took his unofficial lifetime achievement prize, and HUGO went home with all the awards no one cares about.

Ironically, 2012 will probably be the wrong year to be Harvey Weinstein's touted entry for Best Picture:  after THE KING'S SPEECH and The Artist in consecutive years, the Academy may go out of its way to show its independence from his hegemony.  But if there's any certainty in the Oscar universe, it's that he'll be back.

Here's your complete set of Oscar winners:

As Hollywood prepares to honor its best (well, this year... maybe not so much), an undistinguished group of arrivals dominate the boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any adult-skewing picture in the Top 10, ignoring the usual Oscar Day decline (even though the film had the lowest Saturday bump of any of them).  That means the weekend's final number may be closer to $24M.  There's probably not much gas in the tank for future weeks, but a $60M total for a picture that cost $13M (albeit with much more expensive marketing) is clearly a win.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit)  is Tyler Perry's lowest opening ever (excluding Daddy's Little Girls, which opened on a Wednesday).  That probably doesn't mean much in terms of his overall franchise (especially since he has a Madea movie coming out next), but may give concern to his bid for a non-franchise (well, new franchise) success playing a detective in I, Alex Cross later this year.

Bad news for Jennifer Aniston, too:  WANDERLUST (Universal) is her lowest-ever opening for a starring vehicle.  (Paul Rudd isn't really seen as someone whose name alone opens movies--his hits have either been concept-driven (Role Models) or buddy movies with strong co-stars (Dinner For Schmucks)--but this certainly doesn't move him up in the ranks.)  Another couple of losers and it may be time for Aniston to take a hard look at returning to TV.  The best news for Amanda Seyfried is that in a couple of weeks, GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a dim memory--but even though it's ridiculous to put her in direct competition with Rachel McAdams or any other particular actress, she does need another Dear John-sized hit in the near future if she's not going to fall onto the heap of lovely ex-TV actresses who couldn't hack it on the big screen.

HOLDOVERS:  JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) have real legs, although in Arrietty's case, that won't translate to much of a total gross.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) (which went over $100M, the first-ever for Screen Gems) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) all held well.  GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), of course collapsed.  So did PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), which now seems unlikely to reach $50M--presumably Fox will do anything George Lucas tells them to, but one has to wonder about the enthusiasm for re-releasing the rest of the prequel trilogy in 3D when 3D TV and homevideo are still in their infancy and there's little ancillary value to be had.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Only a few of the major nominees are still in wide release.  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in anticipation of its big wins tonight, was the only one to add theatres, and had a nice weekend bump.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) and HUGO (Paramount), in anticipation of their big losses, dropped theatres and had modest declines.  (Hugo is being released on homevideo in a few days.)  Sony Classics widened a couple of their Best Foreign Film nominees:  probable winner A SEPARATION did very well, increasing theatre count by around 50% and boxoffice by 36%, while IN DARKNESS wasn't quite as strong, with a similar rise in theatre count but only a 11% boost at the boxoffice.

Enjoy the Sacha Baron Cohen Publicity Tour Oscars tonight, everyone!  We'll have plenty of coverage on The Artist's anointment after the fact.

Navy SEALs shoot up the Friday boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  The very aggressive marketing for ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) made it seem like it was a patriotic duty to see the film, and successfully hid the fact that it's mostly a sub-par B action movie.  The question now is whether its quality will catch up with it (or not).  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is Tyler Perry's lowest wide-release opening Friday ever at $5.6M (Daddy's Little Girls opened on a Wednesday), but not to worry--Perry will have a new Madea comedy out later this year.

Although daily numbers aren't available for her earliest vehicles, WANDERLUST (Universal), with a 2.2M Friday, also seems to be the biggest flop of Jennifer Aniston's starring career, let alone for one that pairs her with another big name like Paul Rudd.  Aniston has had something of a charmed movie career, considering the low quality of many of her pictures, but her luck may be running out.  GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is just sad at $1.7M, and should send Amanda Seyfried on a search for the next half-decent rom-com or soap opera script that comes her way.

HOLDOVERS:  THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony), SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and SECRET WORLD OF ARIETTY (Disney) are all sustaining well, but nothing is holding like JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), which is clearly pleasing its target audiences. The only thing that could keep it from beating the $102M US gross of the first Journey is next weekend's increased competition.  GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Sony) collapsed, and STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) continued to do so as well--it's starting to look like Phantom Menace may not even get to $50M, although it'll still put plenty of midichlorians in George Lucas's pocket.  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  As THE ARTIST (Weinstein) prepares for its coronation, it added about 20% more theatres and took a nice tick upward.  HUGO (Paramount) lost about 10% of its screens, but also went up a bit.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), on the other hand, lost about a third of its theatres, and was somewhat down.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No notable openings or expansions this weekend, as the art-house audience is presumably occupied with Oscar Day.

NEXT WEEKEND:  March is unusually packed with event movies this year, and first up is THE LORAX (Universal), which the studio has been marketing as an all-quadrant tentpole, with spots aiming at kids (Dr. Seuss), teens (Zac Efron and Taylor Swift) and adults (Danny DeVito and Betty White)--including a fairly heavy ESPN push--and all of that doesn't even count the giant promo deals with a car company and restaurant chain.  A different sort of event is PROJECT X (Warners), an R-rated  "found footage" version of The Hangover (and produced by its director, as every promo is happy to tell you) about a teen party that goes very wild.  Also arriving is the year's first substantial limited release, Paul Weitz's BEING FLYNN (Focus), which is riding some good early buzz for its performances from Robert DeNiro and Paul Dano.

Hollywood Hearts this weekend.

OPENINGS:   It turned out that THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) was indeed slightly more frontloaded than SAFE HOUSE (Universal), but not by enough to rob it of 1st place.  Vow's massive $41.7M haul was higher than any opening weekend for a Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock or Katherine Heigl vehicle--ever.  (Cut to the board room at Screen Gems, where they're trying to figure out just how to do a Vow 2.)  Sony has another reason to be thrilled, too--they have Channing Tatum's 21 Jump Street opening next month.  Normally, one would say that Vow might get hurt by the similarly-aimed This Means War next weekend, but War has such bad buzz that it may not be much of a threat.  Meanwhile, Safe House's $39.3M is the 2d highest opening of Denzel Washington's career, and since its genre hits an international sweet spot, there's nothing but upside (and another sequel that seemingly can't happen, although never discount the inspiration--and desperation--of Hollywood execs).  Also celebrating today:  Ryan Reynolds, whose career was heading for life support after 2011's flops; the Safe House tally probably isn't much due to him, but in Hollywood, if you're in a hit, it's your hit.

Over in the 2d tier, the one genuinely frontloaded movie of the weekend was STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), as audiences, depending on their ages, either remembered or discovered just how bad it was.  (Even though Phantom Menace was the only opening to go down on Saturday, Fox is predicting it to have Sunday's lowest drop--so look for that $23M weekend number to be reduced tomorrow.)  JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), on the other hand, had a wonderfully robust 94% hike on Saturday, its $27.6M weekend total almost 25% higher than the $21M opening for the first Journey picture.  With the semi-arty The Secret World of Arrietty as the only family movie opening for Presidents Day weekend, Journey should hold up pretty well.

HOLDOVERS:  As noted yesterday, last Sunday's depressed Super Bowl Sunday grosses make this weekend's comparisons look artificially strong.  In a normal weekend, CHRONICLE (20th), THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) and BIG MIRACLE (Universal) would all be down over 50%, but only Woman (just barely) crossed that line this weekend.  Those 3, along with THE GREY (Open Road), RED TAILS (20th) and UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) are all headed for $50-65M totals.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Generally good holds for the pictures in general release, as THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), THE ARTIST (Weinstein) and HUGO (Paramount) all lost 20-30% of their theatres and went down under 25%.  The only big hit was for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which shed almost half its theatres and plummeted 60%.  A couple of nominees in smaller categories had modest expansions:  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) added 5 theatres for a total of 45 and went up a couple of percentage points, and PINA (IFC) almost doubled its theatres to 67 and had a nice 35% bump.  The bare 22% increase for W.E. (Weinstein), though, meant a big reduction in per-screen as it went from 4 to 17 theatres. IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics) had an OK start with a $9700 at 3, and surprise Best Animated Film nominee CHICO & RITA (GK) got a lot of curious eyeballs with a $27K opening in 1 NY theatre.j

LIMITED RELEASE:  Not much going on, apart from the Oscar nominees above.  RAMPART (Millenium) had a decent start with a $13K average in 5 theatres, and RETURN (Dada), a very tiny movie with excellent performances by Linda Cardellini as a returning Iraq vet and Michael Shannon (for once playing a normal human being) as her husband, had a $3500 average at 2. 

You're frontloaded!  No, you're frontloaded!

OPENINGS:  The movie audience has 3 main components--men, women, kids--and a weekend that offers a strong title for each one has a good chance of being successful.  The relatively low-budget THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) got off to a great start (too bad it's not a great movie), with $15.4M on Friday.  That's higher than the entire opening weekend for Rachel McAdams' last soap The Notebook (which ended up grossing $81M) and higher than opening day for Channing Tatum's last dip in the soap pool Dear John (also an $80M grosser).  Meanwhile, for the guys there was the (more expensive) SAFE HOUSE (Universal), also very strong with a $13.8M Friday.  Safe House looks like it'll be the 2d highest opener of Denzel Washington's entire career (behind only American Gangster), and even though we won't know until tomorrow (or Monday) which picture edged out the other for the weekend crown, they're both big hits.

Meanwhile, the kids weren't neglected.  STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) scored $8.7M on Friday, and JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners) wasn't far behind with $6.6M.  The consensus seems to be that Phantom will be more frontloaded with fanboys, but again this won't be determined for another day or two.

HOLDOVERS:  Note:  because of Super Bowl Sunday, all weekend-to-weekend drops will be artificially low this week.  Thanks to that, CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) are both likely to be down under 50% this weekend, although BIG MIRACLE (Universal), which just couldn't find a reason to exist, may cross that mark.  Longer-running titles are dropping theatres due to all the new product in the market, so they're mostly down 50+%.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  With the rush of the nomination announcements done, these pictures are losing theatres, but otherwise holding fairly well.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost about 22% of its theatres and should be down around 30% for the weekend, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) also shed 20% of its theatres and should drop about an equal amount at the boxoffice, and HUGO (Paramount) actually had the best hold, ejected from 30% of its theatres but down only around 20%.  The exception is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which lost almost half its theatres but is looking an ugly weekend drop of over 60%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major arrivals this week.  RAMPART (Millenium), which was unable to get a Best Actor nomination for Woody Harrelson, is headed for a mild $12K average in 5 theatres.  IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics), nominated for Foreign Film, should average around $7500 in 3.  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein) tried an expansion to little avail, and may not even get to a $3500 average in 17.

Next weekend the studios aren't offering much for the long Presidents Day holiday:  THIS MEANS WAR (20th), which had to postpone its Valentine's Day opening because it would have been crushed by The Vow (it's also the target of one of the most brutal Hollywood Reporter reviews in recent memory), and GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Columbia/Sony) with Nicolas Cage, that eternal mark of high quality.  Also in a mid-level release is Disney's release of the Japanese (dubbed) animation THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY.  

This year's Academy Awards have so far engendered the kind of enthusiasm and excitement usually associated with a suburban DMV office on a Tuesday afternoon.  People seem to be sullenly resigned to the inevitability of THE ARTIST's victory, even though it would be unlikely to get anything like a majority of the Academy's estimated 5000 votes--but with the Best Picture vote split 9 ways, it doesn't need to come anywhere near that (the winning movie could theoretically take the award with only around 556 votes).  In any case, no unified opposition has formed in favor of any particular competing film, and the same apathy exists in almost every other major category.  At this rate, we might as well be talking about presidential politics.  

Are the Oscars really doomed to be this dull?  (ABC certainly hopes not, or this could be the lowest-rated ceremony in history.)  Is there no possibility for any unexpected moments of shock or even mild surprise?  Let's take a look.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:  As Mitch Metcalf noted in his survey of Oscar wagering odds, this is one category where The Artist is at a disadvantage (odds of 2:1), probably because as a silent movie, its intertitles don't provide much in the way of sparkling dialogue.  There are many who would like to see Woody Allen get some recognition for his late-career renaissance with MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, and that's currently the 2:5 favorite.  The other nominees MARGIN CALL, A SEPARATION and BRIDESMAIDS are all likely of the "be happy you're nominated" variety, although lovers of longshots might want to consider a wager on Bridesmaids at 23:1--it's by far the biggest hit of the group, and somewhat trendy after its critics' awards.  CHOICE:  Margin Call.  PREDICTION:  Midnight In Paris.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:  No one particularly cares about this category this year, but it's one of the very few to be fairly wide open.  THE DESCENDANTS is the favorite at 2:5 because of its perceived stature in the Best Picture race, and because with its polished dialogue it feels "written," but strictly as a work of adaptation, MONEYBALL, at 4:1, probably deserves to win, and its script is by the all-star team of Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian.  There's also increasing sentiment pointing to HUGO at 5:1, another tough adaptation from a children's picture book.  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, which deserves its place, and THE IDES OF MARCH, which doesn't (it's actually weaker than its source material), are probably just along for the ride.  CHOICE AND PREDICTION:  Moneyball.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Here's where things get easy, and thus somewhat tedious.  Octavia Spencer is an overwhelming 1:20 favorite for THE HELP, and no other nominee seems to have a prayer of catching her.  Those who believe the Academy will utterly genuflect to The Artist may want to take a chance on 2d choice Berenice Bejo at 9:1, but 2011 It Girl Jessica Chastain will be back again to win in some future year, and Melissa McCarthy and Janet McTeer, with 2 of the year's most distinctive performances, will have to be content with their nomination certificates.  CHOICE:  Jessica Chastain.  PREDICTION:  Octavia Spencer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:  Did the Academy bother to nominate anyone besides Christopher Plummer?  Oh, they did?  At 1:25, Plummer is the biggest favorite in any major category, and since unlike racehorses, actors can't be disqualified from a race for bumping another nominee or falling down and breaking their leg, he's pretty much unbeatable.  In another year, he and  Max Von Sydow (at 19:1) might have split the lovable old codger vote, but Plummer's accumulated industry goodwill just outweighs Von Sydow.'s  That leaves Kenneth Branagh (9:1) out of luck. Nick Nolte, while no longer young, isn't yet at the old codger stage of his career, and Jonah Hill is just in the promising newcomer stage of his.  CHOICE:  Max Von Sydow.  PREDICTION:  Christopher Plummer.

BEST ACTRESS:  There was a time when this looked like a real race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis, but Davis has plunged ahead like Secretariat at the Belmont.  The current odds of 5:6 for Davis and 1:1 for Streep are misleadingly close, although one can never count out Harvey Weinstein and his none-too-subtle campaign bellowing the 29 years since Streep last won.  Michelle Williams might as well have gone lame down the stretch, Glenn Close picked the wrong year to seek a lifetime achievement award, and Rooney Mara is this category's Promising Newcomer.  CHOICE:  Michelle Williams.  PREDICTION:  Viola Davis.

BEST ACTOR:  The closest we're going to come to an exciting result this year.  George Clooney (1:2) is, well, George Clooney, as well-loved as anyone in Hollywood and with a solid stack of critics' awards to back him up this year.  Jean Dujardin (6:4) is the star of the probable Best Picture winner, and quite a charmer himself, plus he has the added degree of difficulty of performing silently (if there's one thing the Academy loves, it's degree of difficulty).  The fact that Dujardin shockingly won the SAG award means that either he has this sewn up, or that it was a reality check for Clooney's supporters, who realized they'd better get their votes in or risk blowing it.  Could Brad Pitt sneak in there at 18:1 for a universally-respected performance in a lower-profile film?  Probably not, but if this were a horserace, you'd want to include him on your exacta tickets.  Gary Oldman is a less likely sleeper at 22:1, especially because Tinker Tailor never really took off at the boxoffice.  Demian Bechir, while no newcomer, gets the Hey, We Just Noticed You slot.  CHOICE:  Brad Pitt.  PREDICTION:  George Clooney.

BEST DIRECTOR:  The smart money at 1:6 says that as Best Picture goes, so does Best Director, and that's probably right, clearing the way for Michel Hazanavicius to make his triumphant way to the podium.  If Martin Scorsese hadn't won just 6 years ago, this year would certainly be his, but he did, making his 4:1 odds probably overly optimistic.  Alexander Payne isn't the kind of showy director likely to win if his movie doesn't, so 13:1 sounds about right for him.  Terrence Malick, on the other hand, is both adored and disdained by passionate viewers on each side, and THE TREE OF LIFE wasn't enough of a hit to break him out of his art-house cell.  Those with some spare cash might want to consider Woody Allen, a huge longshot at 35:1 who's coming off the biggest hit of his career.  CHOICE:  Martin Scorsese.  PREDICTION:  Michel Hazanavicius.

BEST PICTURE:  Well, here we are.  Harvey Weinstein has, as is his wont, run an absolutely brilliant campaign for The Artist, successfully obscuring the fact that audiences in general haven't been taken by it, and playing up every conceivable voter-friendly angle.  (My favorites:  the ad emphasizing that Artist was the only Best Picture nominee to be shot in Los Angeles, and the screening hosted by producer Thomas Langmann strictly so Langmann could couple the film with The Two Of Us, the 1967 Best Foreign Film winner directed by Langmann's father Claude Berri, so that The Artist could magically be linked in voter minds with the older film's storyline of a Jewish boy rescued from the Nazis by an elderly gentile--Jews, children, the Holocaust and a lovable old codger, all in one neat package!)  The movie's 1:6 odds are well-earned.  Could anything beat it?  The 2d choice is The Descendants at 6:1, a movie that has gathered no head of steam whatsoever, and after that is the huge money-loser Hugo at 14:1 (remember, Scorsese had his victory lap 6 years ago).  Those looking for something, anything, to take the prize should probably concentrate on The Help at 18:1, the only genuine boxoffice hit of the nominees and winner of the SAG ensemble award (but the fact that the picture couldn't even get nominated for Best Director or Adapted Screenplay shows how tenuous its support probably is).  War Horse, a disappointment in every way, is somewhat puzzlingly next at 26:1.  Then the unlikely Midnight In Paris, Moneyball and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close follow at 55-59:1, and at the rear is the aesthete's dream, The Tree of Life at 73:1.  CHOICE:  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  PREDICTION (reluctantly):  The Artist.

Sigh.  Yawn.  We'll look in on the Oscar race again as we get closer to the big night... if we can find the energy.

Happy Voice/Smash Bowl, everyone!  (And go Giants!!!)

OPENINGS:  CHRONICLE (20th) is claiming bragging rights for the weekend over THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) by $1M.  But both films are assuming almost identical Super Bowl Sunday drops (69% and 67%, respectively), so the win will depend on whether one or the other faces more audience defection today, which we won't know until Monday.  In any case, this is--sorry--a super weekend for both studios (especially CBS Films, with its first real hit), each one's low-budget project now destined for profit.  On the other hand, even to reach its modest $8.5M estimate, BIG MIRACLE (Universal) will have to hit a very low 41% assumption for the Super Sunday drop.  This is based, no doubt, on the idea that kids will still go to matinees today, but since those kids will largely need parents to go with them, we'll see if the estimate holds.

HOLDOVERS:  THE GREY (Open Road) leads the way with a 52% drop to $9.5M.  The picture won't hit the highs of Neeson's previous action hits Taken ($140M) or Unknown ($64M), but considering its harder-to-sell genre, it's a nice success.  After that, UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) and RED TAILS (20th/Lucasfilm) are all grouped together with 50+% drops and weekend grosses of $5-5.6M.  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate), with a 44% drop that's the best among non-Oscar movies this weekend, will have to hope its good word of mouth translates into VOD and homevideo sales; it's too late for the theatrical boxoffice to mean much.  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) is hovering at $99.9M and will hit its milestone Monday or Tuesday.  Other holiday pictures are shedding theatres as new openings arrive in the market, and won't get much higher than they are now.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein) purportedly has the best hold with a 22% drop, but since it significantly increased its theatre count, the decline is more like 30%.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), playing at 1500 more theatres than Artist, held very well with only a 28% drop for the weekend.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) was less impressive with a 44% decline.  HUGO (Paramount) has gotten a bit of a second wind, with only an 8% fall from last weekend (even adjusting for a small theatre expansion, it's down less than 15%).  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is slowing down, but $25-30M in the US for a biography of Margaret Thatcher ain't bad (and of course it would be boosted by a Meryl Streep win).

LIMITED RELEASES:  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein), timed to coincide with its director's halftime show and new album, showed little promise with a $11K per-theatre gross in 4 palaces.  The nomination-less A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) lost a third of its theatres, but should still get above $5M, not bad for such esoteric subject matter.  ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside) is having a pretty good hold, down 22% at 245 theatres.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) is finding an audience, a 29% increase in theatre count (to 40) almost matched by a 22% weekend increase in gross. PINA (IFC) and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) are both holding fairly well, with $5K averages in 40 and 13 theatres, respectively.  PARIAH (Focus), though, added 30% more theatres (to 19) but was down 20% for the weekend anyway.

Beware the round-number weekend estimate.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) is claiming an even $20M gross for the weekend, which would make tomorrow's adjusted number starting with "19" no surprise at all.  In any case, it's a bit lower than Liam Neeson's other starts in his new career as an action star, but Grey is the toughest sell of those pictures, so everyone should be happy.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) wasn't quite as frontloaded as the worst-case scenarios threatened, but its $11.8M is still the worst opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  No one at all was interested in seeing Sam Worthington on a ledge, and MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a memory in 2 weeks.

HOLDOVERS:  UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) is claiming a 21% drop on Sunday when every other picture in the market is reporting a more normal 35-50%, so either Kate Beckinsale has special powers or the number will come down tomorrow (possibly to 3rd place for the weekend, below One For the Money--unless, of course, that number comes down too).  MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 (Paramount) crossed the $200M mark domestically, and if Paramount wants the bragging rights enough, they may be able to push it past the original MI as the most successful of the franchise.  CONTRABAND should give Universal a tidy profit, but no such luck for HAYWIRE and Relativity.  And despite the hype, unless RED TAILS (20th) cleans up overseas, it won't do more than break even for George Lucas (who financed it out of his own capacious pocket).  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Here's an extraordinary fact:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in only 897 theatres this weekend, will have a lower per-theatre average (around $3700) than the despised One For The Money will have in 2737 theatres (around $4300).  Ladies and gentleman, your winner of the 2011 Academy Award!  Really, none of the prominent nominees are exciting audiences:  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) in the widest release at 2630 theatres, is looking at a $2700 average, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), expanded to 2001 theatres, is at around $3300.  Meanwhile,  HUGO (Paramount), TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) and THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) are hovering around $2500.  And avert your eyes from WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney), with a terrible $1100 average despite its Best Picture nomination. 

LIMITED RELEASES:  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics), which may have expanded (to 365 theatres) in hopes of nominations that didn't come, saw its per-theatre number slump to $1600.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics), which did get its (well-deserved) nominations, fared better, with around a $9K average at an expanded 31 theatres.  The 3D dance documentary PINA (IFC) also expanded to 35 theatres, with a milder $5300 average.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another loser in the Oscar lottery, expanded to 10 theatres and held with a fairly good $6600 average.

Even though the Oscar race has had clear favorites in THE DESCENDANTS, THE ARTIST and THE HELP since last fall, the first 2 haven't sparked any huge enthusiasm among the general public, where after almost 2 months, Descendants has yet to gross $50M, and Artist, which Harvey Weinstein hasn't dared put into general release, hasn't even made $9M.  And The Help is still battling against its so-so critical reception.  So despite the fact that we all know the Golden Globes shouldn't mean anything, being the choices of around 85 obscure international writers whose opinions, for 364 days of the year, are of no interest to anyone, we've nevertheless looked to the Globes to provide some clarity.  

That being the case, what did we learn tonight?

10.  Ben Kingsley Has A Very Affectionate Wife.  When NBC cut to a woman seemingly giving Sir Ben Kingsley a lap-dance, Twitter exploded with snarky theories about who his companion was.  It turned out to be his wife, an actress who's probably entertaining offers from Starz and Cinemax for original series right now.

9.  Harvey Weinstein Could Win Awards For a Ham Sandwich.  The old joke is that any decent prosecutor could get a grand jury to indict one, but Harvey makes his hold on the Hollywood Foreign Press Associaiton pay off in gold.  In the 10 categories in which The Weinstein Company had a nominee, TWC won 6:  3 for The Artist and 1 each for MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, THE IRON LADY and--most remarkably-- a Best Song award for Madonna's dreadful W.E.

8.  Jean Dujardin's Appearances Probably Won Him Some Oscar Votes.  First there's his silent Douglas Fairbanks bit to end his acceptance speech, then he leaps into a little dance as the telecast cuts to commercial, and in case all that wasn't cute enough, when The Artist wins Comedy/Musical, he's the one with the adorable dog.  If you're vying against George Clooney, Hollywood's King of Charm, you need every trick you can get...

7.  Stars Count At the Globes.  Exhibit A:  Madonna.  Exhibit B:  Steven Spielberg, taking Best Animated Film for THE ADVENTURES OF TININ just because he wasn't going to win anything for WAR HORSE.  (But at least A SEPARATION managed to win Best Foreign Film over Angelina Jolie's picture.)

6.  The HFPA Isn't Thrilled With The Artist Either.  3 of the 4 categories The Weinstein Company lost were defeats for Artist:  Director (Martin Scorsese for HUGO), Screenplay (Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS), and Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer for The Help), with Supporting Actor going to Christopher Plummer for BEGINNERS rather than Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn.  And 2 of the 3 awards Artist won (Picture and Actor) were in Comedy/Musical, where under Globe rules, it didn't have to face off with any of the heavier Dramatic competition.  (The only exception was the meaningless category of Best Score.)  The message:  they liked Artist a lot--but they didn't love it.

5.  The HFPA Might Want to Keep Its Earlier Awards Quiet.  Jessica Lange won Best Actress for King Kong?  Really?  It might be a good rule of thumb not to mention any Globe winners from the pre-Pia Zadora erea.

4.  Brad Pitt's Loss Was Meaningful.  Pitt has his work cut out for him trying to get the Oscar against Clooney and Dujardin, especially because MONEYBALL, although it might get nominated, isn't a serious contender for Best Picture, and its director Bennett Miller didn't get a DGA nomination and may not do better with the Oscars.  A Globe win would have been extremely helpful.

3.  Ricky Gervais Can Be As Bland A Host As Anyone.  For all his and NBC's hype of how outrageous he was going to be, Gervais didn't say anything remotely shocking or insulting in the entire telecast, and his "A" material was at the level of mentioning "Jodie Foster's Beaver."  Even what would have been his one sharp bit of asking Johnny Depp if he'd ever actually seen The Tourist was undercut by the fact that he'd just said that his buddy Depp guest stars on his new HBO series.  Given Gervais's limp material, Madonna's shot at his bow that likened kissing him to kissing a woman seemed nastier than anything Gervais had to say.  (The best zinger of the night actually came from Seth Rogen, noting as he read the Best Comedy/Musical Actress nominees that Michelle Williams was in "that hysterical comedy" My Week With Marilyn.)

2.  The Help's Loss At the Globes Doesn't Mean Much.  With the HFPA's foreign sensibilities, The Help isn't exactly their style.  (A loss for The Descendants, though, would have been crippling for that film.)  Much more important will be the SAG and PGA Awards. 

1.  The Oscar Race Is Still Open.  At this point, The Artist, The Help, The Descendants, Hugo and even Midnight In Paris could all still have a legitimate shot at Oscar, as could Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt for Actor, and Streep, Williams and Viola Davis for Actress.  Consider the Globes tonight's equivalent of the New Hampshire primary:  it confirmed most of what we already knew, but didn't resolve much.

Next up:  the Producers Guild Awards on January 21.

The last 2 weeks of the year will almost certainly bring better news for Hollywood, for reasons of tonnage alone:  there are 6 wide openings to come next week, compared to only 3 in the final weeks of 2010.  But for now, the stocking-stuffer of choice is coal.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  The point here isn't a potential 20% domestic shortfall on one movie that may well be made up overseas, where the market is booming for big-budget action.  The scary thing, not just for Warners but for all the studios, is that with increasingly rare exceptions, the US audience seems to be less interested than it used to be in the giant product that's been the cornerstone of the industry for more than 3 decades.  Other than Harry Potter (a special case, as the 8th and final chapter in a continuing saga), virtually every franchise entry this year has underperformed its predecessors domestically.  Will those ticket-buyers come back?  We'll find out in 2012, when huge additions to the Marvel, Batman, Spider-Man, Twilight, Lord of the Rings and other franchises are rolled out.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Ironically, all the family movies that crashed into each other over Thanksgiving weekend so as to avoid this presumed juggernaut could have spaced themselves out a little.  The moment seems to have passed for the squeaky threesome (6 if you count the Chipettes)--although, again, Mitch Metcalf's anticipated $140M US gross, combined with homevideo (people still buy DVDs for kids) and overseas boxoffice, will keep this franchise profitable.

MISSION:  IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Some good news, albeit loaded with asterisks.  A $24K weekend theatre average in 423 theatres is a terrific number... but by confining itself to Imax and other large-format screens, the studio boosted the ticket price considerably.  And don't forget those Dark Knight Rises extended trailers in the 70mm houses.  Nonetheless, an excellent start for an industry that needs one.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  Last time around, Paramount unveiled Jason Reitman's Up In the Air in the fall at Toronto and other festivals, and felt like the movie had peaked too soon and left potential awards on the table when it finally opened in December.  So this time, they kept Reitman's Young Adult under wraps until awards season.  Unfortunately, the move seems to have backfired:  apart from some (well-deserved) attention to Charlize Theron, the movie is getting limited acclaim, and with a likely $3200 average in about 1000 theatres, it may be doomed by New Year's.

CARNAGE (Sony Classics):  Despite impeccable credentials (Polanski, the Foster/Winslet/Walz/Reilly combo, Tony Award-winning source material) and some strong reviews where it's supposed to count, the film is headed for a deeply unexciting $17.5K average at 5 NY/LA theatres.

HOLDOVERS:  NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners) should slide less than 50%, but that's not nearly enough to save it.  THE SITTER (20th), as expected for its genre, will have a deeper slump and head for the exits.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) continues to do no better than OK; despite a great deal of awards love this week, its per-theatre average will be around $3500.  HUGO (Paramount) and ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony) are both holding well, but at very low numbers, around $1200-1400 per theatre, and THE MUPPETS (Disney) took a bigger fall to hit the same neighborhood.  The Weinstein Company continues to play a very slow hand with MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and THE ARTIST, neither of which expanded this week, and had modest per-theatre dips.  (Both will go wider on Dec. 23.)   Fox Searchlight did expand SHAME from 21 to 51 theatres, and as a result, the per-theatre average will drop sharply to around $6K.  

Next week, as noted, the holiday avalanche arrives.  On Wednesday, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount) open for their very different audiences, along with the wide expansion of MI4.  Those are followed on Friday by WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th).  Then Christmas Day brings WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) and Summit's counterprogramming THE DARKEST HOUR.  Plenty for families, with a couple of dark dramas for the adults.  Will it work?  Stay tuned.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Hardly any bump from Saturday night couples meant about as low an opening as anyone could have reasonably imagined.  Even with some play during Christmas week, the picture may struggle to earn more than its $56M production budget (which is separate from a likely $100M+ worldwide marketing budget).  After J. Edgar and this, Warners has to hope Sherlock Holmes 2 opens big next week, and then wait for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to arrive.

THE SITTER (Fox):  That $10M estimate may lose a digit tomorrow, but it could have been a lot worse, considering how bad the movie is.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus):  A $75K average at 4 theatres is great news.  The question for Focus now is how quickly to expand.  They're going to be hoping for some attention, especially for Gary Oldman, from the Golden Globe nominations this week.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  $40K average in 8 theatres is good, it's fine... but it's not quite what it should have been, for a movie with this accessible a sell.  If reviews can't drive audiences in the biggest cities, what's going to happen when it goes wide?  We'll find out soon enough, as next week's planned expansion is to 1000 houses.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit):  4th weekend of $7.9M was virtually even with New Moon's, and it's on target to end up with a slightly lower total.  The difference:  because Summit had to renegotiate the actor deals on Breaking Dawn (because the original deals didn't allow for a 2-part finale), the budget was way higher this time, meaning that a slightly lower gross means much less profit.  Still, don't cry for Summit, they're doing just fine.

THE MUPPETS (Disney):  With Alvin & Those Chipmunks crawling into town on Friday, the family movie train is moving on, and its $7.1M weekend suggests the Muppets probably won't get near a $100M total.  The picture was made on a budget, but a franchise may not be in Disney's long-term plans.

HUGO (Paramount):  A 19% drop, when you've increased your theatre count by 30%, isn't encouraging.  And at 2600 theatres with a $2350 average, the release can't go too much wider.  Also not good:  Scorsese is picking up some directing honors, but Hugo didn't do too well in today's tally from the LA, Boston and NY Online critics.  (Although it was named to AFI's Top 10 list.)

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  Although at 876 theatres, it still has plenty of room to grow, the $5500 per-theatre average could come steeply down as the film adds locations.  The movie increased its count by 50% this weekend, and basically could only hold even for its weekend total.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony):  A really excellent drop of only 11% despite the loss of a few theatres, but with a $6.6M weekend, the movie is still going to struggle to get much past a total gross of $50M or so.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Held steady at 244 theatres, managing only a $3200 average.  Since it's categorized as a "Comedy" for Golden Globe purposes, this should be a happy week for the film.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  An $18K average at 16 theatres just isn't all that great.  However, it won both the Boston and NY Online awards today, with more love to come this week from the Globes, etc, so still very much at the start of its campaign.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  A $13K average at 21 also isn't great, but Shame is a much more challenging film to market.  Fassbender won in LA and was runner-up at NY Online, which is the kind of attention the film crucially needs.

A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics): No real awards gold yet, and the picture is holding at 4 locations, still doing a good $20K in each.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope):  Critical adoration of Tilda Swinton won this $24K in one NY theatre.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warner Bros):  So much for that franchise.  New Year's was expected to have a softer start than Valentine's Day, which opened on a holiday weekend that included the titular day itself.  But there's "soft" and then there's a 65% decline from Valentine's opening day.  New Year's will have a longer playing time than Valentine's did, probably hanging in a large number of theatres for 4 weeks.  The trouble is that by the time holiday moviegoing seriously begins, New Year's will already be out of gas, unless it gets a word-of-mouth Christmas miracle.  The picture should still turn a profit for Warners, but don't hold your breath for "Arbor Day."

THE SITTER (20th) :  And the answer to whether Jonah Hill can open a movie on his own is... no.  The picture was low-budget, so Fox won't get hurt by it, but the attempt to make some quick money by counterprogramming the season's franchises and family fare didn't work.  The good news for Hill is that his next pictures are the high-concept 21 Jump Street, and Neighborhood Watch, which puts him back into an ensemble where Ben Stiller and Vince Vaughn will be doing the heavy lifting.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  Increasing theatre count by 50% didn't yield much payoff:  the likely $5K average for the weekend is lower than what Juno ($10.5K), Black Swan ($8700) and The King's Speech ($6500) did in parallel spots of their releases.  Descendants, and Searchlight, will be hoping for some big critical help next week, as the Los Angeles Film Critics, Golden Globes and American Film Institute all announce their choices.

HUGO (Paramount):  Very similarly, while a big 800-theatre increase will keep the weekend total fairly stable, the per-theatre number is crashing to a very mediocre $2300.  Things will only get tougher as major holiday competition starts to flood in, so the critics will again need to help out.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  New Year's Eve hit BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit) right in its target audience, and after running day-to-day ahead of New Moon all week, on Friday BD1 went back down to virtually even.  It now seems clear that the picture won't reach New Moon's $296M total.  Meanwhile, audiences finally discovered ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony)... 3 weeks late.  It's heading for an excellent 15% drop, but the numbers are already so low that the final total will be more of a moral victory than a financial one.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Off to a great start, with a likely $80K average in 4 NY/LA theatres, one of the year's highest.  Of course, the question is how broad the appeal of the film's labyrinthine plot and low-key storytelling style can get.  

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  A somewhat less impressive likely $40K average at 8 theatres, particularly because the presence of Charlize Theron and the curdled comedy genre were supposed to make this one an easier sell.  The question isn't whether Theron will be nominated for Actress awards where as long as there are multiple nominees, but whether, in this year of Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Viola Davis, she can actually win anything.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Almost doubled its theatre count to 21, and will still fall for the weekend, with a good but not great $13K average.  This film is the poster child for needing some award and nominations help.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  A very, very slow expansion boat for this speciality item.  It added 11 theatres for a total of 17, and should have a fairly solid $17K average.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Held at 244 theatres, and still not setting marquees on fire with a likely $3K average.  

Deadline has preliminary numbers for the Friday boxoffice, and if they hold, it looks to be a thoroughly terrible weekend for Hollywood.  NEW YEAR'S EVE appears to be under $6M for Friday, meaning a weekend of $15-17M, far below Mitch Metcalf's $25M projection.  Even with a longer playing period than Valentine's Day had last year, New Year's is unlikely to get anywhere near Valentine's $110M gross.  Even worse is Jonah Hill's THE SITTER, with a $3.5M Friday that may be under $9M for the weekend, again way below the $13.5M projection.

With New Year's Eve swiping chunks of its female audience, BREAKING DAWN PART 1 is headed for another 50+% decline.  The family movies, enjoying their final weekend without new competition, are faring better:  THE MUPPETS should fall around 40%, while ARTHUR CHRISTMAS has finally hit its stride now that it's too late to make much difference, down only around 10%.  HUGO and THE DESCENDANTS each added 40-50% more theatres to their counts, but didn't benefit much, as both declined from last Friday anyway and saw their per-theatre averages fall steeply.  

Early indications are that TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY should have a very strong per-theatre number in its limited opening, while YOUNG ADULT looks somewhat less impressive.  

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Running $8M below New Moon at the parallel place in their runs, but with a slower rate of decline (at least until New Year's Eve opens next week).  New Moon earned another $41M after the post-Thanksgiving weekend to end up at $296M in the US; Breaking Dawn 1 could make another $45-50M, which would put it in the same place.

THE MUPPETS:  A disastrously bad second weekend, its 62% the worst decline of the Top 12.  It'll have one more weekend to control the family-film market before Alvin & the Chipmunks arrives, but unless international is strong (so far the film is in only 3 small markets outside the US), this isn't looking like sequel fodder.

HUGO:  So far the unorthodox strategy of starting with a mid-level number of theatres and gradually adding more as awards pour in--is working OK, with a relatively small 33% decline and a per-theatre number almost equal to Breaking Dawn 1's.  The question is how far it can be pushed as holiday movies continue to arrive, both for families and adults.  (And the bigger question is how the film's enormous production cost can ever be earned back, but that's the studio's problem.)

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Word of mouth is clearly good, with a 39% fall from last weekend, but the movie just has nowhere to go--it's already in 3376 theatres and has an anemic $2200 average.  Opening in the flood of family movies over Thanksgiving doomed this one (although holding it to do battle against Alvin wouldn't have worked any better).

THE DESCENDANTS:  Playing the platform release game of increasing theatre count each week so the weekend total stays high while per-theatre shrinks.  Its $9K average in 574  is around the same average Black Swan had, but in a wider release of 959 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  The Weinstein Company, as is its wont, is apparently going after other awards hopefuls with guns blazing, but they have zero to boast about:  Marilyn, with no awards help so far, has a flat $4800 average at 244 theatres (that average isn't much better than what Hugo is doing in more than 7x as many theatres, and it's far below Descendants' average in more than twice as many).

SHAME:  A good but not great $36K average in 10 theatres.

THE ARTIST:  Increased its theatres by 50% by adding 2 in San Francisco, and could only hold even with last weekend, leaving it with a $34K average in 6 that was lower than the NC-17 Shame's average in 10.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  J. EDGAR fell 52% and seems unlikely to get beyond $40M unless DiCaprio starts winning some awards.  Sony greatly expanded the runs of MONEYBALL, THE IDES OF MARCH and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS to keep them alive in awards season, and saw per-theatre numbers of $600-900.  MARGIN CALL continues to show real tenacity at the boxoffice with a mere 23% drop--it should get to $5M in US theatres, and that's on top of $2-3M in VOD revenues, very good numbers for a picture with a low budget and very little paid advertising.  LIKE CRAZY, THE SKIN I LIVE IN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE all seem likely to stall out at abour $3-3.5M unless they get some awards help.

No miracle turnarounds for this weekend's dismal boxoffice.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, despite a major decline from last weekend, will be in first place with $16-17M, followed by a disappointing 2d weekend for THE MUPPETS at $11M, with HUGO and ARTHUR CHRISTMAS hovering at around $7.5M (although Hugo is in far fewer theatres than the other 3).  THE DESCENDANTS will easily have the best per-theatre number (other than exclusive runs) with an $8-9K average in 574.

The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually brutal, and this year is no exception.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  The likely 60% drop from last weekend is as expected for this very front-loaded series.  Right now the film is running $9M below New Moon's 2009 total at the same point in its run, but Breaking Dawn 1 is losing steam a bit more slowly, so depending on how much damage New Year's Eve does next weekend, Breaking Dawn 1 may end up more or less in the same place--which is to say slightly below $300M.

THE MUPPETS:  This 60% drop is less welcome (last year Tangled, coming from a much higher Thanksgiving weekend, fell only 55% in its 2d weekend).  With just one more week of open space until Alvin & The Dreaded Chipmunks descend on the market, this may not be the stuff of franchises.

HUGO:  Paramount's unorthodox release strategy added more than 500 theatres this weekend, and the film and its director also received top honors from the National Board of Review.  The result is a much softer drop than its family-movie comrades, and a per-theatre number that will be right around Breaking Dawn 1's.  It's still far from clear that Hugo can maneuver its way to anything close to profitability, with a production cost reported at $150-170M plus that much again in marketing--but this is the path it would have to take to get there.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Sadly, the odd family movie out this season.  Its likely $50M US gross won't even pay for its marketing, much less the $100+ production cost.  Because of its specifically Christmas nature, the picture also won't be able to get any meaningful homevideo revenues until the 2012 holiday season, which will leave a lot of red ink on Sony's books for most of next year.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Increased its theatre count by another 30% to 574, so its weekend total won't be too far off last week.  The $8500 per-theatre average is good, but it's below the $8700 that Black Swan was doing last year when it reached 959 theatres.  What Descendants really needs is a better showing in the upcoming critics' lists and awards than it had last week, a la Natalie Portman's ride last year.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  Held at 244 theatres, and while its projected $4700 average isn't remarkable, it's relatively steady compared to the other post-holiday drops on the board.  A bigger potential problem is that Michelle Williams didn't win either of the Best Actress awards last week, and her success is the key to this film's.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  In an attempt to get some pre-homevideo awards season energy going, Sony expanded both MONEYBALL and THE IDES OF MARCH back to around 1000 theatres.  Neither attracted much interest, and won't get above $500-600K for the weekend.  Other films in the market continued on their previous paths.

INDIES:  SHAME is headed for a $35-40K average in 10 theatres.  That number is very strong, but below the recent levels of other high-profile indies, including The Descendants' $41K average in 29 theatres and The Skin I Live In's $51K in 6.  Of course, some of that is attributable to Shame's NC-17 rating, but if the picture can't sell out houses in the biggest cities, that may not be a great sign for its future.  THE ARTIST increased from 4 to 6 theatres by adding San Francisco to its NY/LA runs, and its weekend average will be $30-35K. Considering that Artist, despite its silent-movie, black & white style, is far more accessible and easily likable than Shame--not to mention that Artist won this week's NY Film Critics Circle awards--that number is a little softer than one might have expected.  

Next weekend, NEW YEAR'S EVE will head straight for what's left of the Breaking Dawn 1 audience, while THE SITTER could make some quick money because there's nothing in the market right now remotely aimed for its R-rated comedy crowd.  The indie floodgates will also start to fall, with limited runs of award hopefuls TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, YOUNG ADULT and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, not to mention Madonna's W.E.--which technically is also an award hopeful, if the subject is costume or production design.