Movie Box Review

The Hollywood Reporter has some early numbers for the weekend's overseas boxoffice.  (Remember:  comparisons of international boxoffice receipts aren't necessarily apples-to-apples, as films follow different distribution patterns with respect to number and size of markets.)  As in the US, BREAKING DAWN PART 1 is in the lead, with a projected $40M from 73 territories (that pretty much covers the entire world), bringing its overseas total to $341M.  It seems to be on track to match New Moon's $416M international gross.

PUSS IN BOOTS, now in 26 territories, grossed $23M for an $89M overseas total.  HAPPY FEET TWO, in 40 territories, made $16M, bringing it to $34M overseas.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS is now in 52 markets, and was only able to reach $11M for the weekend

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, which doesn't open in the US for 3 more weeks, is already trailing off in its international run, with $10M in 54 markets giving it an international total of $221M.

It's worth noting that IN TIME, the Justin Timberlake/Amanda Seyfried vehicle that could only struggle to $36M in the US, has already grossed an additional $83M overseas, turning a flop into a picture that should at least break even.  Similarly, the much more expensive REAL STEEL, a disappointing $83M grosser in the US, has more than doubled that to $176M overseas.  However, TOWER HEIST, not unusually for US comedies, isn't hitting the mark overseas--with only a few territories still to open, it has just $43M overseas compared to $71M domestically.

 

HUGO: The boxoffice story of the holiday was undoubtedly Martin Scorsese's quasi-family film.  While almost every other film of the day fell steeply or at best held around even, Hugo zoomed an astonishing 40%  This probably reflects to some extent the older audience for the picture, but The Descendants, which has a similar appeal, was only able to rise 7% on Thursday  In any case, it suggests Paramount does have something to build upon with Hugo, and while the film's cost still makes profitability an uphill climb, if they can get lucky and win some early critics' awards (the season kicks off with the NY Film Critics Circle on Tuesday), things may head in the right direction.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Another day with a lower number and more pronounced drop than New Moon had 2 years ago, making it even more likely that Breaking Dawn 1's boxoffice total will slump from its predecessors.

THE MUPPETS:  Although the numbers are lower, Muppets held better on Thanksgiving than Disney's Tangled did last Thanksgiving, with only a 10% drop, and should get close to $40M over the holiday.  Facing no new competition for the next couple of weeks, the picture should be a comfortable if not giant hit.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  A 23% drop from Wednesday was no help to a picture that needs some.  Even if it can hold on in theatres for a while, it will still need some serious seasons greetings overseas.

HOLDOVERS:  HAPPY FEET TWO took another bad hit, down almost 30% for the day.  JACK AND JILL ran around even, while J. EDGAR, with its (much) older audience, went up a nice 18%, albeit from a number that was already low.

INDIES:  THE DESCENDANTS edged up a bit on Thursday and should get to $6-8M for the 5-day weekend.  That would mean a $10-15K per-theatre average Fri-Sun, solid but in need of some critic's awards help.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN debuted Wednesday at 123 theatres, a number that's doubling today.  For the Wed-Thurs period, the picture had about a $2500 per-theatre average (compared to $5K for Descendants, which is in 3x as many theatres), and that doesn't suggest much initial audience enthusiasm.  However, Marilyn's long-term future is entirely about Michelle Williams' success during awards season.  

The holiday movie season is not off to a roaring start.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  The giant franchise will of course win Thanksgiving weekend.  But its $12.5M Wednesday gross was down 12% from what New Moon did on the day before Thanksgiving in 2009, which suggests a 5-day weekend that might be at $58M rather than the $66M earned by New Moon.  That would leave Breaking Dawn 1 $14M below New Moon's post-Thanksgiving weekend total--a decline, of course, that in the context of a picture that will make over $250M is a high-class problem to have, but it still makes Twilight another franchise to see a decline in its US popularity in 2011.

THE MUPPETS' $6.6M on Wednesday guarantees it 2d place for the holiday weekend, but it's down almost 45% from what Tangled did in its opening day last year on the day before Thanksgiving.  (In fairness, Muppets also cost a fraction of Tangled's budget, so in terms of profitability it's still in fine shape.)

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, which happens to be thoroughly charming, is in a far worse place financially, with a woeful opening that seems headed for a $50M US toal.  That wouldn't even pay for its US marketing, much less its $100M+ production budget.  Also, it's a movie that naturally would gain appeal as we get closer to Christmas itself, but with these numbers Sony may have a very hard time holding on to theatres for that long.

HUGO, although it may also end up losing plenty of money, is in a somewhat different position.  Paramount is trying to play a two-fold strategy with it, launching in a medium-size 1277 theatre run, while hoping it can get some traction with adults (parents included) as critics' awards start to pour in at the beginning of December, enough to justify an expansion as the holiday season continues. It's a risky play, since competition for multiplex screens will only increase as wide releases continue to open next month--but it's pretty much the only move they have, since Hugo simply doesn't have a marketing hook that can pull in young audiences quickly.

HOLDOVERS:  No good news here.  HAPPY FEET TWO, facing much fiercer competition for the family crowd, crashed to a number more than 60% below what the original Happy Feet had made the day before Thanksgiving 2006.  Even if it overperforms overseas, as 3D animations tend to do, it'll have a hard time seeing any profit.  JACK AND JILL, J. EDGAR and the other underachievers showed little promise.

INDIES:  The big move of the day was Fox Searchlight's expansion of THE DESCENDANTS into 390 theatres.  where it made about $1M.  That should get it to $7-8M for the 5-day weekend.  These are solid but not huge numbers:  the film's $2500 per-theatre average yesterday was below Breaking Dawn 1's $3K, even though Descendants is in only 10% of the theatres.  No numbers in yet for the 123-theatre opening of MY WEEKEND WITH MARILYN, which will double on Friday, or the 4-theatre launch of A DANGEROUS METHOD.   THE ARTIST will also begin its run in 4 theatres on Friday, and LIKE CRAZY will expand again, to 150 theatres in total.

Next weekend there are no wide openings, as holiday shopping will begin in earnest.  Fox Searchlight will take advantage of the quiet to garner plenty of attention for its 9-theatre launch of the NC-17 SHAME, a movie that needs critical passion if it's to move beyond the arthouse circuit.

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Deadline has preliminary boxoffice figures for Wednesday, and there doesn't seem to be great news for anyone.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1 appears to be the easy winner for the day and probably for Thanksgiving weekend, but its $12.5M for Wednesday, if it holds, would be more than 10% off the parallel date for 2009's New Moon, and suggests that while unquestionably a giant hit, BD1 could be the lowest domestic grosser of the series since the original Twilight.

THE MUPPETS seems to be way ahead of the other openings of the day, with $7.5M (a $2100 per-theatre average) that could bring it to $40-45M for the holiday weekend.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS seems to be around $2.8M for Wednesday ($850 average), on its way to only $15-20M by Monday.  HUGO, in a smaller 1200 theatre run, is well behind with $1.6M for the day ($1250 average) and $8-10M for the long weekend.  

THE DESCENDANTS expanded to 390 theatres for the holiday, and is aiming at $1M for the day, a $2500 average that could give it a $5-8M weekend.  

Holdovers were none too impressive either, with HAPPY FEET TWO heading for an additional $15-20M for the holiday, and IMMORTALS and JACK AND JILL each looking at $10-12M over the 5 day holiday.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

HAPPY FEET TWO:  Watch It At Home - Not So Happy This Time

Most sequels, by and large, exist only because an earlier movie made lots of money--that's just a fact.  But sequels often at least try to find some justification beyond that, even if it's only a commitment to do the same thing as before, only bigger.  HAPPY FEET TWO isn't able to rouse itself to that kind of effort; it feels like a contractual obligation.

This is in spite of the fact that HF2, like the original, was directed by George Miller (who once upon a time was known for his Mad Max movies, a franchise which he keeps saying will return), and that Miller and Warren Coleman remain two of the writers, this time with Gary Eck and Paul Livingston.  Clearly much time and effort was put into the new feature, but in such a dogged way that the audience feels the strain as much as the filmmakers.

The first Happy Feet, you'll recall, told the story of Mumble (voiced by Elijah Wood), who in the film's penguin universe was the only bird who couldn't sing.  Instead, he danced, and in the way of oddball fantasy heroes from Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer on down, he was exiled from the community.  This inevitably caused him to have adventures, come in contact with strange beings (humans), and ultimately find true love on his way to using his unique talents to save all those who had once doubted him.

Happy Feet Two is a much more tired exercise in "Hey, we can do this if we all work together!" cliche.  Years have passed, and Mumble is mated to Gloria (the late Brittany Murphy in the original picture, now Pink).  The singing vs. dancing debate has ended, and the irony is that Mumble's own son Erik (Ava Acres) can't dance.  So Erik leaves home, eventually finding the other penguin colony from the first movie where 2 of the more colorful characters are voiced by Robin Williams, and where a strangely gifted flying bird (Hank Azaria) is mesmerizing the crowd.  Meanwhile, an avalanche has trapped Erik's colony in a newly-formed valley with no escape and no food.  Mumble, who had left in search of Erik before the avalanche hit, has to join with a sea lion (Richard Carter) and other Antarctic creatures to help free the penguins.  There are also a couple of philosophical krills, Will and Bill (Brad Pitt and Matt Damon), wanderers from their own colony, who are searching for the meaning of their existence.

All of this comes together in the most routine way.  There are no narrative surprises equivalent to the discovery of humans in the first picture, and Erik's journey of discovery is far less interesting than Mumble's had been.  Although the animation is on a huge scale (the movie reportedly cost $135M) and its quality is very fine, the static storyline basically means that half the action consists of watching thousands of penguins marooned in the valley looking up as our heroes stand on the cliff staring down, wondering how to help.  (It's also unclear just how these few penguins are managing to transport enough fish down to the valley to keep more than a handful of their trapped brethren alive, but let's not worry about narrative logic.)  

Happy Feet Two isn't badly made, it's just dull.  The movie is hardly going to end with thousands of penguins dying of starvation, so there's no particular suspense, and the way the trapped birds are ultimately freed is the most obvious way possible in the movie's universe (hint:  it involves dancing).  Robin Williams frantically does his schtick, as does Hank Azaria, and beyond that the voices are none too interesting (Pitt and Damon sound like they riffed their lines while floating in one of their pools), while the device of having the animated characters perform (mostly) well-known songs is now old-hat.  

There are plenty of family movies opening between now and Christmas week, animated and otherwise.  Feet aside, the odds are you'll be happier with one of the others.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Although BD1 had greater declines on Friday (as opposed to Thursday midnight) and Saturday than New Moon did in 2009, Summit's weekend estimate assumes exactly the same 34% drop for Sunday.  So it's possible their $139.5M figure could come down a bit in the actuals tomorrow (which could move the film behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2's $138.6 and make it the 6th rather than 5th biggest opener ever).  BD2 also launched worldwide and made $144M overseas--that's huge of course, but while New Moon's international opening weekend was "only" $132.5M, that was in just 25 territories rather than BD1's 54.

HAPPY FEET TWO:  $22M is just this side of wretched, and even that number assumes a very low 28% drop for Sunday.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Off to a good start with a very strong $42K per theatre average, but the test will come when it expands semi-widely on Wednesday.

HOLDOVERS:  Despite its big opening, IMMORTALS won't do much more than break even in the US (and that's accepting Relativity's claim that after foreign presales it only carried $25M of the production cost), and like many an action movie before it, will have to do big business overseas to hit profit.  JACK AND JILL is likely to be the first Adam Sandler comedy vehicle to actually lose money in a very long time.  J. EDGAR's 47% drop is quite bad for a picture that's hoping to linger in theatres and play a part in the Oscar race, and it's going to need some support from the early awards at the end of this month if it's to have any chance.  The smartest scheduling decision of the entire year may have been DreamWorks Animation's one-week move of PUSS IN BOOTS, which has turned out to be the difference between a moderate success (probably around the level of Megamind's $148M) and what would have been a serious disappointment.  It's looking like PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 won't manage to outgross the original's $108M to become the franchise's highest grosser, but Paramount will be quite fine with $105M or so, thanks very much.  

INDIES:  LIKE CRAZY expanded nicely to 108 theatres with what should be about a $5K average in each.  MARGIN CALL continues to hold extremely well, with a $2500 average at 173, and now seems like it should get to $5M in theatrical revenues alone (not counting the simultaneous VOD release).  THE SKIN I LIVE IN expanded to 111 theatres and had an OK $2500 average.  MELANCHOLIA expanded to 56 theatres with a pretty good $5500 average.   MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE isn't finding much traction with a $2100 average in 180.  TAKE SHELTER will need some awards support for Michael Shannon, as it fell to a $1400 average in 74.  In smaller openings, ANOTHER HAPPY DAY, boosted by Q&As with Ellen Barkin (a producer as well as star), made it to an average of about $4500 in 2 theatres, which was a lot better than TYRANNOSAUR's $1500 average in 5.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Christmas comes but once a year, and for Summit that day is the 24 hours after a Twilight movie opens.  (A little credit to the studio, too, for not fudging the numbers, which would have been easy enough to do since they're so close, in order to claim a franchise record for Friday.)  The $72M Breaking Dawn earned was a bit more front-loaded from Thursday midnight screenings than New Moon's $72.7M had been in 2009 (42% compared to 36%), and the same may well apply to Friday's chunk of the 3-day weekend total.  New Moon's Friday was just about 51% of its $142.8M weekend, so Breaking Dawn 1 might end up around $135M, which would make it the 5th or 6th highest opening weekend ever (Pirates of the Caribbean 2 is at $135.8M).

HAPPY FEET 2:  The original Happy Feet, somewhat unusually these days for an animated film, made more in the US than overseas ($198M vs $187M).  If that holds for the sequel, it'll be bad news for Warners, since Happy 2 is headed for an opening only half as big as its predecessor's.  Even worse, while the Thanksgiving weekend competition in 2006 only featured one weak family movie (Deck the Halls), this year Happy 2 has a tidal wave heading straight for it, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo all arriving on Wednesday.  That may well mean a less healthy multiple, and the possibility that the film could very unhappily fail to reach $100M in the US.

THE DESCENDANTS:  A strong but not overwhelming opening for  a presumed Oscar front-runner, with what should be around a $40K average in each of 26 theatres.  That's considerably less than Black Swan's $80K average at 18 last year, although it compares well with The King's Speech's $31K at 19.  But we'll know more about the boxoffice prospects of Descendants quickly, because it's expanding into 500+ theatres on Wednesday.

Holdovers:  Not a pretty picture.  IMMORTALS will dive by 60%, which is no surprise.  But awful word of mouth has quickly caught up with JACK AND JILL, which will drop from its weak opening by at least 50%.  It's unlikely to get past $75M, which will make it Adam Sandler's lowest-grossing comedy vehicle since Little Nicky in 2000 (which made less but also cost a lot less than J&J's $80M budget).  Audiences were similarly unimpressed with J. EDGAR, which is looking at a 50% drop for the weekend, worse than Hereafter had last year.  The picture seems unlikely to make more than $30-35M in total, meaning some respectful nominations but no real Oscar momentum. PUSS IN BOOTS took a big hit for the first time in its run, and should drop 50% this weekend.

Indies:  No big titles wanted to get in the way of The Descendants this weekend.  But LIKE CRAZY expanded to 108 theatres and should do a nice $5K in each.  And sadly, the excellent but difficult to watch TYRANNOSAUR (which is not about dinosaurs) failed to get the reviews it desperately needed, especially in the NY Times, and may not even manage $2K in each of its 5 theatres.

Next Weekend:  As noted above, an avalanche of family entertainment invades for the holiday, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo fighting it out.  Also, some major award hopefuls will make their appearances:  David Cronenberg's A DANGEROUS METHOD and Michelle Williams' awards express MY WEEK WITH MARILYN arrive on Wednesday (the latter in a semi-wide run of a few hundred theatres), while THE ARTIST opens on Friday.