Movie Box Review

The tenth weekend of the year should generate about $122 million for the top 12 films, a slightly better than normal weekend for the second weekend in March -- up 4% from last year's comparable weekend and up 10% from the four-year average for this weekend.  John Carter will be the top opener, but it should be far behind the second weekend of The Lorax, which has a firm grip on first place.  As for the other openers, Silent House should open with a quiet $10 million, while Eddie Murphy's A Thousand Words should bomb with less than $5 million.   



Opening at over 3,500 theaters, John Carter from Disney should average a slightly-above-average $7,500 per theater (for $26.0 million Friday-Sunday), putting this very expensive movie on a solid pace to lose a lot of money.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 60% positive, a decent score for a science-fiction/ adventure film and suggesting the film could drop closer to 50% instead of 65% in its second weekend.  But a decent hold does no good if the film's opening weekend base is only $26 million.  John Carter is on track for a preliminary $65 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,100 theaters, Silent House from Open Road Films should average an unspectacular $4,800 per theater ($10.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Early reviews for this horror film written, produced and co-directed by Laura Lau are also currently 60% positive.  Silent House is headed for a total domestic gross of $27 million. 

Opening in around 1,500 theaters, A Thousand Words from Paramount should average a stillborn $3,000 per theater ($4.5 million Friday-Sunday).  No reviews yet for this comedy-drama starring almost-Oscar host Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words is headed for a total domestic gross of $9 million and an early exit from theaters. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 9-11                       Positive   Weekend   Total*

John Carter             Dis  PG13  59%      $26.0     $ 65
Silent House            Open R     60%      $10.0     $ 27
A Thousand Words        Par  PG13  n/a      $ 4.5     $  9


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The Lorax will reign supreme in its second weekend, down a better-than-average 41% to $41 million this weekend.  The real race in the irrelevant (but still fun to watch) weekend standings is for third place between Silent House and Project X.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 9-11                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
The Lorax                Uni      -41%      $41.0     $230
Project X                WB       -51%      $10.5     $ 68
Act of Valor             Rel      -45%      $ 7.5     $ 77
Safe House               Uni      -37%      $ 4.7     $129
Journey 2                WB       -41%      $ 3.9     $102

The Vow                  Sony     -40%      $ 3.6     $130
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -49%      $ 3.5     $ 39
This Means War           Fox      -37%      $ 3.5     $ 51


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $118 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $136 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $122 million, up 4% from this weekend last year and up 10% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

GCB finally arrives Sunday night at 10 after Desperate Housewives, as it lurches toward its series finale in May.  With a little luck, we will stop hearing "we shall receive" in the ABC promos at a carpet-bombing rate of 45+ seconds per hour.  The light soap/drama from Robert Harling (creator of Sex and the City) is based on the book Good Christian Bitches, with the pilot re-titled Good Christian Belles and ultimately GCB.  The premiere episode should build slightly on its Desperate Housewives lead-in and settle slightly in the next few weeks.  We are giving Desperate a 2.6 Sunday as it rebuilds back toward a 3 rating after the January/ February pre-emptions and stiff competition.  The audience for GCB should be very compatible and a small additional bonus audience of the curious will probably check it out.  We expect GCB to win the time period Sunday with Adults 18-49, with NBC in second (the second hour of Celebrity Apprentice at a 2.5 rating and the full 9-11 pm episode at a 2.4) and CSI: Miami in third with a 1.9 rating.    
  



            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
              GCB -- ABC Sunday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
  Forecast  2.8      2.7      2.6      2.6


The premiere of NBC's Awake Thursday rounded up in the official nationals to a 2.0 rating (from a 1.9), bringing it a bit closer to our original forecast of a 2.4 rating.  We still expect a decline in week two (the show's rating dropped a bit at the half-hour mark -- and even at each quarter-hour mark).  With The Mentalist returning with an original episode this Thursday on CBS, look for a 1.8 from Awake in its second week.  
  

            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
            AWAKE -- NBC Thursday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
  Forecast  2.4      2.1      2.1      2.0
  Actual    2.0


###

Well, AWAKE certainly has an open field competitively tonight.  The heavily-promoted premiere of the new NBC drama (averaging over 40 seconds of on-air promotion time per hour on NBC for weeks) faces a repeat The Mentalist on CBS (which follows a repeat Person of Interest) and a very soft entry on ABC, a repeat of the Jimmy Kimmel Live that originally aired after the Oscars (which follows a repeat of Grey's Anatomy).  The only other show of any significance on the night is a two-hour American Idol on FOX from 8-10 pm.  If FOX wanted to play games, it could have let the live episode of Idol run long and placed a 5+ rating directly against Awake for at least the first few minutes.  But it appears FOX ended Idol on time at 10:00 pm ET tonight.

So there is no competition on the broadcast networks against Awake.  So far so good.  The bad news is that Up All Night is its lead-in.  Although the Up All Night episode is an original that will be facing repeats on ABC and CBS, it's hard to imagine viewers suddenly flocking to the show.  With a weak lead-in, Awake will have to generate its own heat and draw viewers to NBC at 10 pm.  And while tons of promos have aired for Awake, relatively few people have seen them outside of NBC's Monday night.  Further, outside media spending (radio, digital, cable, and those giant vanity billboards) does not seem anywhere near Smash levels.  Totally subjective assessment, there does not seem to be a lot of heat for Awake out there.

So what's the forecast?  We'll say a 2.4 rating for the premiere, building off a 1.9 or 2.0 for Up All Night.  Week two will face an original Mentalist, which should knock the show down a peg and then settle in around a 2 rating fairly rapidly.  
  

            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
            AWAKE -- NBC Thursday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
            2.4      2.1      2.1      2.0


The real verdict from the Nielsen sample will be available around 11 am ET Friday.  Keep checking for updates tomorrow. 


###
   

The ninth weekend of the year should generate about $125 million for the top 12 films, a fairly typical weekend for the first weekend in March -- up 2% from last year's comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Universal should stand tall with a $44 million opening for The Lorax, while Project X should place second with a slightly above average $18.5 million opening.   



Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal should average an excellent $12,300 per theater (for $44.0 million Friday-Sunday), which would be the best opening for a film since the weekend of November 18 when Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened with over $138 million in its first weekend.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews from critics are in so far at RottenTomatoes, but the film is over 75% positive with the small sample size.  Marketing for the film has been strong and omnipresent (Universal is acting like a major studio this weekend, as opposed to its imitation of a mini-studio last week with Wanderlust opening with $6.5 million at a mere 2,002 theaters).  The studio has pulled out all the stops with dozens of advertiser tie-ins, brilliantly skewered by The Colbert Report (at minute 5:40).  The Lorax is on track for a preliminary $156 million domestically.            

Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Project X from Warner Brothers should average an okay $6,200 per theater ($18.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Also a limited sample size for this comedy produced by Todd Phillips (The Hangover), but the few reviews are trending slightly negative.  Project X is headed for a total domestic gross of $64 million. 


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 2-4                        Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Lorax                Uni  PG    n/a      $44.0     $156
Project X                WB   R     n/a      $18.5     $ 64


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Fairly typical declines are in store for most holdover films, with Act of Valor the lone returning film headed for over $10 million this weekend.  Best Picture The Artist doubles its theater count from 966 to about 2,000, but the per theater average should drop from about $3,000 to about $2,100 as the film moves into parts of the country that should be less receptive to the silent tribute to the early days of Hollywood.  Still, it should have a hefty 45% increase from last weekend's tally.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 2-4                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Act of Valor             Rel      -47%      $13.0     $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -51%      $ 7.5     $ 40
Journey 2                 WB      -47%      $ 7.2     $120 
Safe House               Uni      -41%      $ 6.5     $133
The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $ 5.2     $133
This Means War           Fox      -44%      $ 4.8     $ 51
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -49%      $ 4.6     $ 55
The Artist              Wein      +45%      $ 4.2     $ 45

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $125 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $121 million (paced by Johnny Depp voicing the Best Animated film Rango), and the same weekend in 2010 was $186 million (paced by Johnny Depp in the huge Alice in Wonderland).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $123 million, up a scant 2% from this weekend last year and down 1% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

Tonight's Academy Awards telecast on ABC should be short on suspense as The Artist sweeps to victory in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  (See our Oscar Odds for more.)  While there is a race for Best Actor between Jean Dujardin (The Artist) and George Clooney (The Descendants) and for Best Actress between Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), none of the four films in the running in the major acting categories has a broad, mainstream following.  The Help has the widest appeal, but that is stretching it.

We are forecasting a 10.4 rating with Adults 18-49 for the Oscars telecast tonight from 8:30 pm to approximately midnight ET, falling below the current record low of 10.7 for 2008's ceremony, when No Country for Old Men beat Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood for Best Picture.  Also, there should be an average audience of 32.9 million viewers (ages 2 years or older) over the course of the show, not quite a record low.  2008 should keep that distinction (31.8 million), mainly because of population increases since then.  

The number to beat this year in the awards show world is the 14.1 rating with Adults 18-49 for The Grammys on February 12.  The real news would be if the Academy Awards even comes close to that mark.  


Note: The first numbers available Monday morning will be the fast national ratings, which measure the entire country but miscalculate the viewership Pacific and Mountain time zones (because the Oscars show, like live sports, is broadcast live to all time zones rather than the normal tape-delayed feed to the western United States).  The fast nationals for the Oscars could be as low as a 9.0 rating, awaiting a hefty adjustment upward when the western US ratings are re-processed.  Certainly, ABC has requested expedited official national ratings for the Oscars (which Nielsen will provide for an additional fee) to prevent especially low (and inaccurate) numbers from circulating in the press.


 

The eighth weekend of the year should generate about $116 million for the top 12 films -- up 21% from last year's comparable weekend and up 25% from the four-year average for this weekend.  The big studios are sitting out Oscar weekend, leaving it to Relativity, Lionsgate and Summit to open films as attention shifts to the Kodak Hollywood and Highland Theater Sunday.  Well, OK, Universal is opening a film this weekend with a tepid theater count of under 2,000 locations.  We are giving the slight edge to Act of Valor, although we will probably regret this as we have underestimated Tyler Perry before.  It should be a good race to #1 throughout the weekend, with the top film probably coming in under $20 million.   



Opening at over 3,000 theaters, Act of Valor from Relativity should average an okay $5,900 per theater (for $18.0 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  No reviews yet for this war movie featuring real Navy SEALs -- the entire crop of films opening this weekend is being hidden from film critics.  Act of Valor is on track for a preliminary $47 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,000 theaters, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds from Lionsgate should average a decent $8,600 per theater ($17.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Good Deeds is headed for a total domestic gross of $45 million, a notch below recent Tyler Perry films: Madea's Big Happy Family ($53.3 million) in April 2011, Why Did I Get Married ($60.1 million) in April 2010 and I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($51.7 million) in September 2009.  Perry's biggest hit so far was Madea Goes to Jail ($90.5 million) in February 2009. 

In around 1,900 theaters, Universal's Wanderlust (starring Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston) should average a soft $4,800 per theater ($9.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  The R-rated comedy is on track for a final tally of maybe $34 million domestic.  

Finally, Amanda Seyfried in Gone from Summit is opening in about 2,000 theaters and should average a meager $3,100 per theater ($6.0 million opening weekend).  The film is headed for a final domestic total of $14 million.


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 24-26                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Act of Valor             Rel  R     n/a      $18.0     $ 47
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG   PG13  n/a      $17.0     $ 45
Wanderlust               Uni  R     n/a      $ 9.0     $ 34
Gone                     Sum  PG13  n/a      $ 6.0     $ 14


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

After Act of Valor and Tyler Perry's Good Deeds at #1 and #2, there should be a pretty good battle for third through fifth place between third weekend entries Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow.  The bottom should drop out of Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in its second weekend.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 24-26                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Safe House               Uni      -46%      $13.0     $139
Journey 2                 WB      -36%      $12.8     $104

The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $12.0     $143
This Means War           Fox      -46%      $ 9.5     $ 49
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -62%      $ 8.5     $ 58
Secret World Arrietty    Dis      -34%      $ 4.5     $ 25

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $92 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $96 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $107 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $116 million, up 21% from this weekend last year and up 25% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

The seventh weekend of the year should generate about $142 million for the top 12 films -- up 9% from last year's comparable weekend and up over 20% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Nicolas Cage should lead a crowded field, although the second Ghost Rider should be down significantly from 2007's original.  The Vow will battle Ghost Rider at the top of the chart, while This Means War will most likely be left at the altar. 



Opening at over 3,000 theaters, Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance from Sony should average a solid $9,000 per theater (for $27.0 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Remember, we concentrate on three-day weekend openings and not the more publicity-friendly four-day tallies on weekends like President's Day.  This allows for more realistic performance comparisons across different weekends.  No reviews are posted on RottenTomatoes for Spirit of Vengeance, as Sony is hiding this Nicolas Cage tour de force until the curtain goes up Friday.  The second Ghost Rider is on track for a preliminary $73 million domestically.  The original Ghost Rider opened February 16, 2007, with $45.4 million its first three days, on its way to $115.8 million in North America and $112.9 million overseas.          

Opening in over 2,600 theaters, the late-to-the-romantic-movie party This Means War from 20th Century Fox (starring Reese Witherspoon, Chris Pine and Tom Hardy) should average a just okay $6,400 per theater ($16.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Critics have not been kind so far: 28% positive reviews.  This Means War is headed for a total domestic gross of $46 million, a notch below Witherspoon's last outing in Water for Elephants ($58.7 million) and better than her previous film, How Do You Know ($30.2 million). 

In around 1,300 theaters, Disney is releasing The Secret World of Arrietty, which should average a meager $3,300 per theater ($4.2 million from Friday-Sunday).  Arrietty is on track for a final tally of maybe $20 million domestic.  Critics are going crazy for this import from Japan (95% positive), and international audiences have already forked over $126 million.  But the distinctly non-Pixar, 2D anime style will not break out beyond a niche audience here.


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 17-19                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony  PG13  n/a      $27.0     $ 73
This Means War           Fox  PG13  28%      $16.5     $ 46
Secret World Arrietty    Dis  G     95%      $ 4.2     $ 20


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

I am probably low on The Vow, with $22.5 million Friday-Sunday and down 45% from its terrific opening.  It pains me to project Nicolas Cage winning the weekend, but I'll stick with the statistical model that has served me well.  But if Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams set some kind of record on Wednesday-Thursday, February 15-16, as they did on Valentine's Day itself, we might revise the forecast.   In the end, I believe the $11.6 million figure for The Vow Tuesday was more of an aberration.  Call me a cynic.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 17-19                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



The Vow                 Sony      -45%      $22.5     $125
Safe House               Uni      -47%      $21.0     $117
Journey 2                 WB      -26%      $20.0     $ 85 
Phantom Menace in 3D     Fox      -55%      $10.0     $ 57
Chronicle                Fox      -44%      $ 6.8     $ 70
The Woman in Black       CBS      -49%      $ 5.2     $ 57
The Grey                 Open     -39%      $ 3.1     $ 56
Big Miracle              Uni      -35%      $ 2.6     $ 24


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $115 million total, ranking 29th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $130 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $122 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $142 million, up 9% from this weekend last year (a rare decent weekend in 2011) and up 23% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

The sixth weekend of the year should generate about $142 million for the top 12 films -- up 5% from last year's comparable weekend but down a similar percentage from a "normal" weekend this time of year.  The Vow and Safe House should open very solidly at #1 and #2.           


Opening at over 2,800 theaters, The Vow from Sony should average a very good $11,900 per theater (for $33.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics on RottenTomatoes are slightly positive toward this romantic tear-jerker: 56% positive reviews.  The Vow is on track for a preliminary $95 million domestically.        

Opening in over 3,000 theaters, the action film Safe House from Universal (starring Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds) should average $9,300 per theater ($28 million Friday-Sunday).  Critics have been mixed: 50% positive reviews so far with a relatively small sample size.  Safe House is headed for a total domestic gross of $80 million.

In over 2,600 theaters, 20th Century Fox is re-releasing Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace in 3D, which should average $7,900 per theater ($20.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Episode 1-3D is on track for a final tally of $57 million domestic.

Finally, Warner Brothers rolls out The Rock in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.  A high number of theaters will screen this thing (3,400), but the average per theater should be a very mediocre $5,200 ($17.5 million this weekend).  Early reviews are running 56% positive, and Journey 2 should be on its way to $54 million domestic.   

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 10-12                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Vow                 Sony  PG13  56%      $33.5     $ 95
Safe House               Uni  R     50%      $28.0     $ 80
Phantom Menace in 3D     Fox  PG    60%      $20.5     $ 57
Journey 2                 WB  PG    56%      $17.5     $ 54


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly typical declines for the returning films.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 10-12                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Chronicle                Fox      -49%      $11.5     $ 65
The Woman in Black       CBS      -53%      $10.0     $ 58
Big Miracle              Uni      -39%      $ 4.8     $ 28
The Grey                 Open     -45%      $ 5.2     $ 59
The Descendants          Fox      -36%      $ 2.9     $ 76
One for the Money        LG       -49%      $ 2.7     $ 27

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $151 million total, ranking 14th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $135 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $189 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $142 million, up 5% from this weekend last year but down 6% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years