Movie Box Review

With baseball out of the way, last night was a picture of what a "typical" Thursday will look like.

FOX:  The return of BONES was a very healthy 0.6 higher than its season premiere last year (when it was in the 8PM slot), and roughly on par with the numbers it was doing last Spring, when it had American Idol and its 6+ rating as a lead-in.  If it can hold at that level with a 45% lower lead-in from X FACTOR, FOX will be very happy indeed.  X Factor comparisons, meanwhile, are somewhat skewed by the fact that this was the show's first 1-hour episode, meaning that half of its running time faced off with Big Bang Theory on CBS.  With that in mind, a less than 10% drop from its previous Thursday average barely registers.

NBC:  That sigh of relief was the network seeing THE OFFICE return to a rating that starts with a "3".  However, that still puts it in 3rd place for its timeslot.  Otherwise, although the numbers for the night's other shows were all up by 1-3 tenths without baseball competition, not a single show scored over a 2.1.  And it's getting to be time to cut PRIME SUSPECT loose with its sad 1.2 rating.

ABC:  Nothing demonstrates the decreasing importance of November sweeps more than the fact that ABC is using it to burn off episodes of CHARLIE'S ANGELS.  (The last Thursday of Sweeps features a special 20/20 with Regis Philbin followed by a 2-hour PRIVATE PRACTICE ) GREY'S ANATOMY continues to run 20% below last season's average, making Private Practice--which admittedly faces no real competition from NBC in the hour--look comparatively impressive by running even with last year.

CBS:  It's hard to believe CBS is content with PERSON OF INTEREST's 4th place finish in its hour, almost 20% lower than its RULES OF ENGAGEMENT lead-in, but the show's back order suggests otherwise.  Nevertheless, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the network experiment with other programming in the hour.  THE MENTALIST, despite weak competition from NBC in its hour, is running about 10% below last year.

CW:  The network's one successful night continues to hold well, with VAMPIRE DIARIES' 1.5 not all that far behind NBC for the hour.

Tonight is, in a way, the whole Fall for NBC:  if GRIMM, without Game 7 World Series competition, can build or even hold its number from last week, it could win its hour and allow the network to claim an actual 2011 hit.  Also, A GIFTED MAN is nearing its make-or-break moment on CBS.

November sweeps began with a baseball bat in its hand, and for one network, that bat was the one wielded by Robert DeNiro in The Untouchables.

NBC:  A disaster, although its full extent won't be known until the World Series is over next week.  COMMUNITY and PARKS AND RECREATION tied all-time lows (and for those shows, that's really low), and THE OFFICE had its lowest ever rating on a Thursday, which means the network will have zero non-football shows this week with even a 3 rating.  NBC could take a tiny bit of solace from the 0.1 uptick for WHITNEY, but all that promotional effort this week aimed at PRIME SUSPECT came to naught, with an even lower rating than last week's episode.  And the news just gets worse:  Awake, the midseason multiple-dimension cop show that would be the obvious substitute for Suspect in the Thursday lineup, has been forced to take an unscheduled break in production for several weeks because of script problems.  And the cherry on the whipped cream on the network's cake is that tonight's series premiere of GRIMM will have to launch against the first World Series Game 7 in 9 years.   Truly:  Ow.

ABC  It's nice to be a female-skewing network when the competition is a sports event.  IT'S THE GREAT PUMPKIN, CHARLIE BROWN, from 1966, doubled what Charlie's Angels had been doing at 8PM (but why are Angels episodes still scheduled for the next 2 sweep Thursdays?).  Then GREY'S ANATOMY and even PRIVATE PRACTICE were up, despite the fact that FOX doesn't usually air programming in the 10PM hour.

CBS:  A little bruised by baseball, with the 8-10PM shows all down from last week.  Surprisingly, though, even against the unusual FOX competition, THE MENTALIST held even with last week.  (Note:  rather than face World Series Game 7 tonight, the network has substituted reruns for their entire schedule.  This means the next 1 or 2 ratings for A GIFTED MAN will be life-or-death for that show.)

FOX:  We don't know just what the network's number was last night due to time-zone adjustments for live sports, but we know it was good.  Last night and tonight are the reasons there's still some value for the network in staying in the baseball business. 

CW:  Their target audience of women 18-34 has little interest in baseball, and both VAMPIRE DIARIES and SECRET CIRCLE did just fine.  (Vampire tied NBC in its first half-hour, and its rating was higher than Prime Suspect's).

On a night when atypical competition should have made for some shuffling in the numbers, the news was that there wasn't much at all.

ABC:  The network had to be hoping that with a repeat Office on NBC and the male-skewing World Series on FOX, they could get some extra viewers for GREY'S ANATOMY.  But the show actually went down 0.1 from last week, which means its 3.5 rating, down over 20% from last year's average, is about where it's going to be for a while.  The weird thing about CHARLIE'S ANGELS isn't its 1.2 last night, but the fact that as of now, the network is still planning to air another dead episode on November 3, in the midst of sweeps.

CBS:  PERSON OF INTEREST is reportedly about to receive a full-season pick-up, but it didn't benefit from the repeats on NBC last night, and may have been slightly dented by the World Series.  The good news for CBS was that while RULES OF ENGAGEMENT will never be a blockbuster, it's far more compatible with BIG BANG THEORY than the deceased How To Be A Gentleman was.

FOX:  They now know that they'll have a Game 5 on Monday, removing the need to air House and Terra Nova reruns, but won't know until at least Sunday if they're going to get into the promised land of a Game 6 and potential Game 7.  Last night's number, like Wednesday's, looks to be again just about what they've been doing with X FACTOR.

NBC:  They sat out the night with repeats, and if Sunday's football game is on the low side (and with New Orleans a 2-touchdown favorite over the Colts, that's a possibility), the weekly average could be truly woeful.

CW:  In the universe of this network, where tenths are truly meaningful, the 0.9 for SECRET CIRCLE counts as good news.  The show has been improving creatively over the past couple of weeks as well, with less soap and more deadly villains.

In the stories about CBS's pending pick-ups, notably absent has been A GIFTED MAN, so tonight's rating for that show may be critical.  Also, EXTREME MAKEOVER will make its Friday debut for ABC.

On a rare night this week not affected by baseball, a mixed set of results for the networks.

NBC:  The strategy of double-pumping WHITNEY and PRIME SUSPECT with repeat episodes on Mondays and Wednesdays in order to expose new viewers to the shows backfired:  those people must not have liked what they saw, because both series fell to new lows, a terrible 2.0 for Whitney and a worse 1.3 for Suspect.  On any other network (except CW), that would get them both cancelled, but the truth is that with NBC in its current state, it's hard to tell just what the network will find "acceptable."  Incredibly, with the exception of football and THE OFFICE (which held up well, albeit 20% below last year's average), there won't be a single show on NBC this week with a rating over 2.1.  In comparison, the entire Sun-Thurs CBS schedule probably won't have a single show under that mark.  Depending on what ratings were proffered to advertisers in this year's Upfront sales, the network may need to air a tremendous number of "make-good" (i.e., free) ads in compensation for under-delilvery.

ABC  CHARLIE'S ANGELS had s slight uptick from last week (and the network instantly issued a press release to crow about it), but let's face it:  a 1.3 and 5th place in the timeslot (behind CW) isn't good news, and it's hard to imagine the show seeing the lights of November in its current timeslot.  GREY'S ANATOMY was up, but still 20% below last year's average, while PRIVATE PRACTICE was also up and a more reasonable 15% below last year.

CBS:  A BIG BANG THEORY rerun proved far more compatible with the show's new episode than How To Be A Gentleman had been.  The bad news was that even with a much stronger lead-in, and an enormous amount of promo attention from the network, PERSON OF INTEREST barely ticked up and still ranked in 3d place for its hour.  THE MENTALIST just barely edged out Private Practice to take the hour at 10PM.

FOX:  The network finally got to air a regularly scheduled night of programming, but all the confusion of this past week may have taken a small toll, as X FACTOR declined slightly.  However, it was still strong enough to give FOX a comfortable win for the night.

SUBURGATORY -  Only one airing so far, but it premiered well.

Holdovers - MODERN FAMILY, THE MIDDLE, PRIVATE PRACTICE, CASTLE

REVENGE -  Not really "struggling" yet, but last week's drop was worrisome.  The question is whether it can stop the fall.

PAN AM -  Same here.  It's won the battle of the 1960s shows, and it's beating CBS, but the ratings need to hold where they are now.

GREY'S ANATOMY - As with Glee, this show is still a hit, but it's substantially less of one than it used to be.

DANCING WITH THE STARS - The question is whether this disastrous cycle is just an aberration of bad casting, or if it signals the beginning of the end for this show.  That would be seriously bad news for a network that needs it to fill multiple hours per week.

Holdovers - BODY OF PROOF, HAPPY ENDINGS

CHARLIE'S ANGELS - No one cared to see a remake of this, and besides, it's not any good.  Now that NBC has issued the season's first cancellation, expect this one to be close behind.

DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES - Dead show walking!  No one expected it to go out as dismally as it has.  A warning of the perils of hanging on for one season too many.

 
GRADE:  C-plus
 

On what used to be network TV's marquee night, only one series had a rating over a 4...

NBC:  ...and it certainly wasn't on NBC.  THE OFFICE is now the only non-football show on NBC to exceed even a 2.5 rating.  So far, Office is holding up pretty well post-Carell (down about 20% from last year's season average), although its number isn't all that impressive compared to comedy hits on all the other networks.  Still, that's by far the network's good news.  WHITNEY's plunge means that not a single new NBC fall series is any kind of success.  (Under the "you can't cancel everything" rule, that doesn't mean all these failures will be thrown off the schedule.  In fact, it's very possible several of them may get back orders for spring, not because NBC is suddenly talent-friendly--ah, the spin!--but out of sheer desperation, since apart from Smash, the network's midseason shows are midseason for a reason.)  NBC may be a couple of weeks away from a very difficult decision:  if they can't save both Whitney and Up All Night, which one gets the life-raft of the Office lead-in?  Meanwhile, at 10PM PRIME SUSPECT is on the critical list with a dire 1.5 rating.  From 8-9PM, COMMUNITY and PARKS & RECREATION provide some stability, albeit of the low-rated kind.

CBS:  THE BIG BANG THEORY is the hit of the night, with a terrific (and stable) 4.8.  But after that, things are a lot bumpier.  HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN didn't open (meaning that CBS Marketing was only able to get 2 Broke Girls any kind of debut sampling this fall, and that was because of the 2 1/2 Men lead-in) and is probably headed downhill from there.  It's not just that PERSON OF INTEREST is running 20% below CSI's rating in the same timeslot last year-- it's about 13% below the number CSI is doing now in its weaker Wednesday 10PM slot.  And THE MENTALIST is 20% below last season's average, despite NBC being a non-factor in the timeslot.

ABC:  It's just a matter of time till the misbegotten CHARLIE'S ANGELS heads to the trash-heap.  GREY'S ANATOMY, unable to capitalize on NBC's and CBS's problems, is running 20% below its average last year, but at least in its season debut, PRIVATE PRACTICE hit last year's average. 

FOX:  Once again, when all the smoke had cleared, X FACTOR may have declined a bit from last week, but it gave FOX an easy win for the night.  Next week's experiment with a repeat New Girl at 9:30PM is sure to have a strong lead-in, and the results should be interesting.

CW:  VAMPIRE DIARIES continues to be by far the network's strongest show, and even ticked up a bit this week, while SECRET CIRCLE seems to have settled in to a 0.9 rating, which ain't much, but is above-average by CW standards.

Tonight, CBS will hope that viewers watching A GIFTED MAN, unlike the show's protagonist, won't be seeing dead people.  Look for our Pilot + 1 Review later.

On what has traditionally been the flagship night for network television, a mostly subdued start.

NBC:  Amidst the carnage of its premiere week, finally there was a tenuous hour of good news for the Peacock.  THE OFFICE held very well at a 3.9, almost even with its average last season, and that was followed by a solid 3.2 for the debut of WHITNEY.  Now, last night was a big event episode for The Office, because Steve Carell's successor as office manager was finally revealed (see our reboot review), so we'll see how those numbers hold up next week.  (Also, when quarter-hour numbers become available later today, we'll see how many people who tried Whitney out stayed to the end of the show.  UPDATE:  the quarter-hours indicate about a 20% decline from the first half-hour to the second, suggesting some viewer dissatisfaction.)  For now, though, NBC Marketing can breathe a sigh of relief that they've successfully launched a show.  Not too much of a sigh, however:  after Whitney, PRIME SUSPECT was a total bust with a sad 1.8 (UPDATE:  and a 25% decline from the beginning of the hour to the end makes the story even worse).  The 8PM hour also wasn't anything to brag about, with the terrific PARKS & RECREATION only managing a 2, and the equally marvelous COMMUNITY (come on, that 2001 sequence was sheer brilliance) just a 1.7, in both cases below last season's average.

CBS:  Good news!  THE BIG BANG THEORY had the single highest rating of the night, a robust 4.9.  Bad news!  The massively hyped PERSON OF INTEREST, even with a full-hour Big Bang lead-in, was thoroughly unimpressive with a 3.1 (UPDATE:  although it at least held steady with only about a 10% drop during the hour)--that makes 2 procedurals, with Unforgettable, that CBS Marketing couldn't get going this year.  The Mentalist, too, didn't show much, with a 2.8 season premiere below last year's average.  (Although in its defense, it faced atypical competition from ABC.)

ABC:  Nobody was longing for a reboot of CHARLIE'S ANGELS, and it managed only a dismal 2.1 debut  (UPDATE:  it grew slightly during the hour, but that's probably a function of viewership rising between 8-9PM).  (Hey--after the failed retreads of Conan the Barbarian, Fright Night, The Bionic Woman, Knight Rider, Killer Elite, Straw Dogs, Prime Suspect and now Charlie's Angels, could we maybe call a halt to remakes from the 1970s-90s for a while?  Huh?  I know Battlestar Galactica was brilliant, but that was about 1 in 100.  And yes, I'm aware a new Footloose is on the way.  Shoot me now.  End of rant.)  And the 2-hour GREY'S ANATOMY premiere with its 4.1 didn't even hit last year's average.  

FOX:  So, like, who won the night?  That would be FOX, with Night 2 of X-FACTOR.  No, it's not Idol or Voice, but it looks like it's going to be a sturdy performer for the network, and 2-4 hours of a reliable 4+ rating in your pocket every week is enough to make any network head happy.

CW:  VAMPIRE DIARIES, possibly because of the increased competition on the night, slipped to a 1.2, and more worrisome, SECRET DIARIES fell below a 1 rating.  Nothing to panic about in the CW world of ratings just yet, but not happy news either.

Tonight, the only major debut is CBS's A GIFTED MAN, but for some of us there is a huge event this evening:  FRINGE is back!  And maybe we'll find out if Peter still exists in a parallel universe where Community is a hit...

8PM: Thursday is DVR night, as all the networks pack in some of their hottest shows to get premium dollars from movie studios advertising the weekend's new openings.  COMMUNITY and PARKS & RECREATION are two of the best shows NBC has left, and PARKS & RECREATION, in particular, took giant leaps in quality this past season.  Meanwhile, there's no better guilty pleasure on the air than THE VAMPIRE DIARIES on The CW, far more ingeniously plotted than other TV shows (and blockbuster movies) that delve into the high school realm of the supernatural.  That's not even mentioning the enormously popular BIG BANG THEORY or X FACTOR, which FOX certainly believes will be their appointment series of the Fall.  Odd ladies out may be CHARLIE'S ANGELS, which looked decent enough in its promos but entirely predictable, and may have taken on too tough a time slot for its own good. 


9PM:  Will THE OFFICE recover from the loss of Steve Carell?  Maybe not--the post-Carell episodes this past season weren't exactly promising--but the show has been so good for so long that it deserves every chance; its new slotmate WHITNEY, though, will have to be better than its promos if it's to survive.  Fans of BONES know that the season finale set the stage for a new season not to be missed; the reboot could either work smashingtly or bust the show's fragile mix of mystery, screwball comedy and occasional soap.  Thinking of soaps, GREY'S ANATOMY isn't the behemoth that it once was, but it's still a sturdy entertainment that delivers the suds.  Even the new shows in this slot are big guns:  PERSON OF INTEREST has the JJ Abrams pedigree and stars the LOST cult's favorite Michael Emerson, while THE SECRET CIRCLE will test Kevin Williamson's ability to launch a new franchise back-to-back with his VAMPIRE DIARIES.  Advice for this hour:  DVRs won't be enough, so make sure you know where your chosen network streams its shows online.

10PM:  After the rush of 9PM blockbusters, things calm down in a big way at 10PM.  THE MENTALIST and PRIVATE PRACTICE both have their core audiences, but it would be awfully nice to get some new blood flowing in this slot, so the hope is that NBC's PRIME SUSPECT will be worthy of its classic British predecessor; casting the very strong Maria Bello in the lead is a good first step.

WHAT TO WATCH THE REST OF THE WEEK: