Movie Box Review

For the past several weeks, "season low" and "down sharply from last year" have been repeated phrases in our daily ratings posts, mostly for broadcast network programs but also for cable programs, as well.  What's going on here?  After all, this season started in a very promising fashion with the combined audience for the four major broadcast networks even with the prior season, an almost impossible feat given the the ever increasing media fragmentation in today's world. 

To take a broad view, we looked at the season in three distinct parts, summarized in the table below.  In the first part of the television season (the first 11 weeks from September 19-December 4), ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX combined for a 10.4 Adult 18-49 rating in prime time, exactly the same rating as the comparable period in 2010.  Then from December through most of January, the broadcast networks were pacing 4% behind the 2010-11 season, a decline more in line with past decade or so.  Nothing to worry about, most thought.  But then in late January up until now, the decline in network TV viewing has really picked up steam, pushing a double-digit rate.


            4-Network (ABC CBS NBC FOX) 
      Prime Time Adult 18-49 Combined Rating

                      2011-12  2010-11  % chg
     Sep 19-Dec  4     10.4     10.4      0%
     Dec  5-Jan 22      9.0      9.4     -4%
     Jan 23-Mar  4     10.2     11.1     -9%


To get an idea of the pace of change, the chart below shows the yearly decline in network television viewing for each week of the season to date.  In the first part of the season, there were a few up weeks and a few down weeks but the magnitude of the differences generally were quite small (mostly under 5%).  More recently, however, the weekly swings have become much more pronounced: more in the 10% or even 15%+ range and predominantly on the negative side.

Disclaimer:  Network pilots now in circulation are not necessarily in the form that will air in the Fall.  Pilots are often reedited and rescored, and in some cases even recast or reshot.  So these critiques shouldn't be taken as full TV pilot reviews, but rather as a guide to the general style and content of the new shows coming your way.

GCB finally arrives Sunday night at 10 after Desperate Housewives, as it lurches toward its series finale in May.  With a little luck, we will stop hearing "we shall receive" in the ABC promos at a carpet-bombing rate of 45+ seconds per hour.  The light soap/drama from Robert Harling (creator of Sex and the City) is based on the book Good Christian Bitches, with the pilot re-titled Good Christian Belles and ultimately GCB.  The premiere episode should build slightly on its Desperate Housewives lead-in and settle slightly in the next few weeks.  We are giving Desperate a 2.6 Sunday as it rebuilds back toward a 3 rating after the January/ February pre-emptions and stiff competition.  The audience for GCB should be very compatible and a small additional bonus audience of the curious will probably check it out.  We expect GCB to win the time period Sunday with Adults 18-49, with NBC in second (the second hour of Celebrity Apprentice at a 2.5 rating and the full 9-11 pm episode at a 2.4) and CSI: Miami in third with a 1.9 rating.    
  



            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
              GCB -- ABC Sunday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
  Forecast  2.8      2.7      2.6      2.6


The premiere of NBC's Awake Thursday rounded up in the official nationals to a 2.0 rating (from a 1.9), bringing it a bit closer to our original forecast of a 2.4 rating.  We still expect a decline in week two (the show's rating dropped a bit at the half-hour mark -- and even at each quarter-hour mark).  With The Mentalist returning with an original episode this Thursday on CBS, look for a 1.8 from Awake in its second week.  
  

            ShowBuzzDaily Forecast
            AWAKE -- NBC Thursday
             Adults 18-49 Rating

          Week 1   Week 2   Week 3   Week 4
  Forecast  2.4      2.1      2.1      2.0
  Actual    2.0


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Tonight's Academy Awards telecast on ABC should be short on suspense as The Artist sweeps to victory in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  (See our Oscar Odds for more.)  While there is a race for Best Actor between Jean Dujardin (The Artist) and George Clooney (The Descendants) and for Best Actress between Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), none of the four films in the running in the major acting categories has a broad, mainstream following.  The Help has the widest appeal, but that is stretching it.

We are forecasting a 10.4 rating with Adults 18-49 for the Oscars telecast tonight from 8:30 pm to approximately midnight ET, falling below the current record low of 10.7 for 2008's ceremony, when No Country for Old Men beat Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood for Best Picture.  Also, there should be an average audience of 32.9 million viewers (ages 2 years or older) over the course of the show, not quite a record low.  2008 should keep that distinction (31.8 million), mainly because of population increases since then.  

The number to beat this year in the awards show world is the 14.1 rating with Adults 18-49 for The Grammys on February 12.  The real news would be if the Academy Awards even comes close to that mark.  


Note: The first numbers available Monday morning will be the fast national ratings, which measure the entire country but miscalculate the viewership Pacific and Mountain time zones (because the Oscars show, like live sports, is broadcast live to all time zones rather than the normal tape-delayed feed to the western United States).  The fast nationals for the Oscars could be as low as a 9.0 rating, awaiting a hefty adjustment upward when the western US ratings are re-processed.  Certainly, ABC has requested expedited official national ratings for the Oscars (which Nielsen will provide for an additional fee) to prevent especially low (and inaccurate) numbers from circulating in the press.


 

Previously we examined the upscale ratings picture of the Monday at 10 pm hour, which showed the first few episodes of Smash as solidly upscale, Hawaii Five-0 as fairy downscale and Castle in the middle.  Today we turn our attention to ABC's schedule, which is averaging a 2.4 rating with Adults 18-49 for its regularly scheduled programs this season to date.  However, the regular schedule averages a 2.7 rating with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes.  This translates to a 113 index (100=average and anything above 100 indicates an upscale skew overall), one of the highest concentrations of high-income viewers on network television.

ABC's schedule is paced by the most upscale program on TV, Modern Family with a 158 $100K+ index.  But index only tells part of the story, as it simply measures concentration of high-income viewers.  Modern Family is also toward the top of the ratings charts, ranked #5 with Adults 18-49 (5.6 rating season to date) and ranked even higher (#3) with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes (8.8 rating season to date).  This is important because other shows like NBC's 30 Rock have a very high index (152) but much lower absolute ratings levels (#87 and a 1.6 rating with young adults versus #55 and a 2.4 rating with upscale young adults).  To make these distinctions clear, we divided all network programs into high, medium and low levels on two measures: upscale index and overall young adult rating.  Modern Family is the perfect example of a show that fits into the high rating-high upscale index, a holy grail for advertisers since it reaches a large audience that is highly concentrated with upper income viewers. 


High Rating-Upscale Shows.  In addition to Modern Family, ABC has two other programs in this most desirable category: Grey's Anatomy (116 index) and Dancing with the Stars (110 index, just barely making the cut).

High Rating-Midscale Shows.  Only one other ABC show is above the 3.2 rating level (our defintion for a high rating), freshman fantasy drama Once Upon a Time with an almost perfectly average 101 upscale index.  Although its ratings could very well grow in its second and third seasons, chances are the 101 index will not change very much, given historical patterns.

Downscale Shows.  ABC has no shows in the high rating-downscale category (as opposed to say, CBS -- the next post will show many of The Eye's crime dramas have high ratings but relatively few upper income viewers).  In addition, ABC has relatively few programs in the other downscale categories (middle rating-downscale and low rating-downscale).   Wipeout (89) and The River (87), as well as the now-cancelled Charlie's Angels (81) and Extreme Makeover Home Edition (76), are examples.

Low Rating Shows.  ABC also has relatively few shows in the other low rating categories (low rating-midscale and low rating-upscale -- as opposed to NBC, which has more than its share of upscale-skewing programs with tiny audiences). 

Middle Rating-Upscale Shows.  By default, ABC has a disproportionate number of shows with middling ratings but a upscale skews.  The Bachelor has a terrific upscale index (142), but it is on the downside of the ratings curve.  In contrast, Happy Endings (139 index) and Revenge (130) have a high proportion of upper-income viewers could find themselves moving up to the high rated category with a little patience and luck.  The same cannot be said of Pan Am (129 index): while its upscale skew remains strongly positive, the ratings are headed in the wrong direction and would be classified as a low rating show if we only looked at the last few months.

Finally, as the chart below shows, the once signature series Desperate Housewives (100 index) finds itself in the middle of the pack, undistinguished as a middle rating-midscale show.  Nothing to be ashamed of, it's just showing its age as a show that has migrated from the upper right box, where it burst upon the scene.  Last Man Standing (94 index) is starting its career in the middle box.  In the absolute best case scenario, it might move up the chart (although I wouldn't bet on higher ratings in coming seasons).  However, it has virtually no chance of moving to the right (more upscale in the future).  Like Home Improvement, Last Man Standing will always be solidly midscale and probably should be very happy with a 94 index.

In the next post on upscale ratings we will turn to CBS, which is more concentrated in the upper left section of the chart (high rating but midscale to downscale).