SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 9-11
The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only). The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a decent $123 million for the weekend, up 4% from last year's weekend and up 10% from the weekend's average for the past four years. Disney is claiming John Carter will finish the weekend with $30.6 million. Let's all play pretend and give Disney the pleasure of 24 hours of thinking they crossed the $30 million threshold for the opening weekend. This seems like a classic case of "rounding up" on Sunday morning to make an opening number seem a little better, but it doesn't change the fact that John Carter is going to be a catastrophe financially: maybe $75 million domestic and $125 million overseas for $200 million worldwide. Less the theater owners' portion and adding in ancillary revenues like home video, video on demand, TV rights and so on, the studio might keep around $200 million versus a massive $400+ million expenditure on production and marketing.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: John Carter ($75 million), Silent House ($13 million) and A Thousand Words ($11 million).
The second week movies: Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($220 million, adjusted down slightly) and Project X ($67 million, steady).
The third week movies: Act of Valor ($73 million, adjusted back down slightly), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($35 million, adjusted down slightly), Wanderlust ($20 million, down slightly) and Gone ($12 million, steady).
March 9-11 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
The Lorax (Uni) $39.1 -44% $220-
John Carter (Dis) $30.6 $ 75
Project X (WB) $11.6 -45% $ 67
Silent House (Open Road) $ 7.0 $ 13
Act of Valor (Rel) $ 7.0 -48% $ 73-
A Thousand Words (Par) $ 6.4 $ 11
Safe House (Uni) $ 4.9 -33% $130
The Vow (Sony) $ 4.0 -33% $129
This Means War (Fox) $ 3.7 -33% $ 53
Journey 2 Myster. Island (WB) $ 3.7 -44% $102
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds (LG) $ 3.0 -57% $ 35-
The Artist (Wein) $ 2.3 -36% $ 50
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $123 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #10
2012 $123 John Carter $31, Silent House $7, 1000 Words $6
2011 $118 Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010 $136 Green Zone $14, She's Out My League $10
2009 $ 88 Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14
2008 $106 Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
2008-11
Avg $112
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend are 21 Jump Street from Sony starring Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum. This film will be compared to Limitless ($18.9 million opening weekend), The Lincoln Lawyer ($13.2 million) and Paul ($13.0 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD
SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 9-11
The tenth weekend of the year should generate about $122 million for the top 12 films, a slightly better than normal weekend for the second weekend in March -- up 4% from last year's comparable weekend and up 10% from the four-year average for this weekend. John Carter will be the top opener, but it should be far behind the second weekend of The Lorax, which has a firm grip on first place. As for the other openers, Silent House should open with a quiet $10 million, while Eddie Murphy's A Thousand Words should bomb with less than $5 million.
Opening at over 3,500 theaters, John Carter from Disney should average a slightly-above-average $7,500 per theater (for $26.0 million Friday-Sunday), putting this very expensive movie on a solid pace to lose a lot of money. [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 60% positive, a decent score for a science-fiction/ adventure film and suggesting the film could drop closer to 50% instead of 65% in its second weekend. But a decent hold does no good if the film's opening weekend base is only $26 million. John Carter is on track for a preliminary $65 million domestically.
Opening in around 2,100 theaters, Silent House from Open Road Films should average an unspectacular $4,800 per theater ($10.0 million Friday-Sunday). Early reviews for this horror film written, produced and co-directed by Laura Lau are also currently 60% positive. Silent House is headed for a total domestic gross of $27 million.
Opening in around 1,500 theaters, A Thousand Words from Paramount should average a stillborn $3,000 per theater ($4.5 million Friday-Sunday). No reviews yet for this comedy-drama starring almost-Oscar host Eddie Murphy. A Thousand Words is headed for a total domestic gross of $9 million and an early exit from theaters.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
March 9-11 Positive Weekend Total*
John Carter Dis PG13 59% $26.0 $ 65
Silent House Open R 60% $10.0 $ 27
A Thousand Words Par PG13 n/a $ 4.5 $ 9
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Lorax will reign supreme in its second weekend, down a better-than-average 41% to $41 million this weekend. The real race in the irrelevant (but still fun to watch) weekend standings is for third place between Silent House and Project X.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
March 9-11 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
The Lorax Uni -41% $41.0 $230
Project X WB -51% $10.5 $ 68
Act of Valor Rel -45% $ 7.5 $ 77
Safe House Uni -37% $ 4.7 $129
Journey 2 WB -41% $ 3.9 $102
The Vow Sony -40% $ 3.6 $130
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG -49% $ 3.5 $ 39
This Means War Fox -37% $ 3.5 $ 51
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $118 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $136 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $122 million, up 4% from this weekend last year and up 10% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE Feb 27-March 4
Nine full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year's glacial pace, and the year-to-date total is now pacing a double-digit percentage increase over of the comparable period's average for the last several years.
The Lorax came in at $70.2 million for its opening weekend, down half a million dollars from the $70.7 million studio estimate issued Sunday (an over-statement of less than 1% -- so give Universal some credit for accuracy). Project X came in at $21.05 million (a little more than 1% above the studio estimate of $20.775 million). Very accurate figures from the studios for the openers with no fudging. In contrast, The Artist was over-stated on Sunday by a hefty 7%. Weinstein's studio estimate was $3.9 million for its victory lap weekend, while the actual came in at $3.625 million (moving the Best Picture out of the top 10, from #10 to #11, swapping places with Wanderlust). With only $2,065 per theater this weekend for The Artist, it is clear there is not much pent-up demand for this novelty of a film. We can move on and pretend the 84th Academy Awards never happened.
(millions) 4yr vs vs
Week #9 $141 $147 $193 +37% +31%
Year to Date $1335 $1524 $1696 +27% +11%
The Vow $130 million (85 percentile)
Safe House $129 million (85 percentile)
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $102 million (79 percentile)
Act of Valor $77 million (70 percentile)
Project X $68 million (67 percentile)
Chronicle $66 million (65 percentile)
This Means War $51 million (56 percentile)
Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace 3D $42 million (49 percentile)
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds $39 million (46 percentile)
Big Miracle $19 million (19 percentile)
Weekend Predictions for March 9-11 should be posted late Wednesday.
SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 2-4
The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only). The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year's weekend and up 23% from the weekend's average for the past four years. The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($227 million) and Project X ($67 million).
The second week movies: Act of Valor ($77 million, adjusted upward), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($39 million, steady), Wanderlust ($22 million, steady) and Gone ($12 million, adjusted up slightly).
The third week movies: Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($51 million, adjusted down again slightly), This Means War ($51 million, steady) and Secret World of Arrietty ($23 million, adjusted down).
The fourth week movies: The Vow ($130 million, adjusted down a touch), Safe House ($129 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($103 million, adjusted back down) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($42 million, down slightly).
March 2-4 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
The Lorax (Uni) $70.7 $227
Project X (WB) $20.8 $ 67
Act of Valor (Rel) $13.7 -44% $ 77+
Safe House (Uni) $ 7.2 -34% $129
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds (LG) $ 7.0 -55% $ 39
Journey 2 Myster. Island (WB) $ 6.9 -48% $103
The Vow (Sony) $ 6.1 -38% $130
This Means War (Fox) $ 5.6 -33% $ 51
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony) $ 4.7 -48% $ 51
The Artist (Wein) $ 3.9 +34% $ 50
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $153 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #9
2012 $153 The Lorax $71, Project X $21
2011 $121 Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010 $186 Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn's Finest $13
2009 $102 Watchmen $55
2008 $ 91 10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg $125
Next Weekend
Opening next weekend are John Carter from Disney, Silent House from Open Road Films and A Thousand Words from Paramount. These films will be compared to Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million opening weekend), Red Riding Hood ($14.0 million) and Mars Needs Moms ($6.9 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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