Movie Box Review

This year has brought us a far-fetched, but ultimately moving and deeply romantic story about a couple who have finally gotten together and married after a great deal of turmoil and who then face their greatest challenge of all:  a fluke accident deprives the wife of any memory of her beloved, and when, despite all his desperate efforts, he's unable to make her remember their past, he sets out, with equal parts tenderness and determination, to make her fall in love with him all over again.

I speak, of course, of the final season of Chuck.

As it happens, the new movie THE VOW tells much the same story, only without the chase scenes and machine gun battles.  Unfortunately the filmmakers also left out the emotional depth and snappy dialogue that Chuck provided.  In their stead, we get much sappiness and almost nothing that's convincing.  

In The Vow's version, Paige (Rachel McAdams) and Leo (Channing Tatum) are 4 years married, and share a marital bliss that only movie couples about to suffer tragedy are permitted.  She's a sculptor and he owns a struggling recording studio; their combined incomes allow them to own a house and studio roughly the size of a city block.  One night a truck rear-ends their car, and Paige is propelled through the windshield in slow-motion (miraculously without shedding a drop of blood).  When she comes out of her coma, she's fine... except that she's entirely forgotten the events of the last 5 years, which includes her entire relationship with Leo.  As much as he lovingly leads her through their things and prompts her with memories, he remains a complete stranger to her.

The people she does remember are those from earlier in her life, and conveniently for the movie's sake, it turns out that this was just about the time she completely changed everything in her lifestyle, leaving law school, the suburbs, her parents (Sam Neill and Jessica Lange) and her then-fiancee Jeremy (Scott Speedman) for reasons that aren't revealed until the end of the story.  Since she doesn't remember the reason she left them, those are the people she now feels comfortable with, and she goes back to her former pre-marriage life.

This is where The Vow almost threatens to become interesting, because the old Paige was very nearly a Mean Girl, a rich, closed-off law student whose friends might as well be named Muffy and Heather.  A movie about a free spirit who retreats to the world of snobbery and creature comforts might have something on its mind, but this isn't that movie.  The script, credited to the team of Abby Kohn & Marc Silverstein (responsible for He's Just Not That Into You and Valentine's Day) and shockingly to the great Jason Katims, of Friday Night Lights and Parenthood (one would like to think his contribution was limited to Leo's recording studio, since it echoes a plotline on Parenthood), makes Paige's parents cartoons of well-off arrogance, and the ex-fiancee is of course an insensitive villain who ultimately has to be punched by Leo.  So Paige's desire to re-enter their clearly inferior world just makes her seem like an idiot, and the explanation of why she moved away in the first place is a silly plot revelation.

Tatum and McAdams are both likable, charismatic performers, and they're all The Vow has going for it (aside from one decent scene for Jessica Lange in the last reel), but they don't have the tools to create characters that aren't on the page.  Tatum mostly looks doggedly puppydogish (taking off his shirt at every opportunity), while McAdams alternates between "puzzled" and "troubled".

The direction of Michael Sucsy, who made the HBO Grey Gardens, is slick and completely lacking in personality, as are the technical credits.  You know a romantic movie is in trouble when the central couple temporarily break up and you find yourself thinking that maybe they really are better off apart; The Vow accomplishes the truly difficult feat of making Nicholas Sparks adaptations look nuanced and convincing.

The homevideo divisions of movie studios are notoriously reticent about giving out specific sales information regarding their titles beyond Week 1 boasts, but today Universal made a point of disclosing to Deadline that BRIDESMAIDS had accumulated $40M in revenue from 7 million transactions through VOD, pay-per-view, hotel viewings and online electronic-sell-through (EST), which it claims is the highest earned by any movie to date.  This includes 4.8 million VOD transactions, which make up $24M of the total.  (These numbers use calculations of $5 per transaction for VOD and about $7 for the other non-disc viewings, which means that they reflect total gross rather than revenue back to the studio--an amount, depending on the splits with cable, satellite and online services, that's probably more like $24-30M.)

To give this some perspective, the Numbers website estimates that Bridesmaids has sold 4.1M DVDs, meaning about $56M in revenue at a wholesale cost of $14 each.  In addition, if the ratio of DVD to blu-ray sales for the title's first week in release continued to hold, Bridesmaids probably sold about 2 million blu-rays, which would mean something like $40M  in revenue.

So comparatively speaking, as of now the VOD revenue is still relatively limited compared to traditional homevideo, something like 25-30%.  And we can't know, absent detailed research, whether VOD and other non-disc availability cannibalized the DVD/blu-ray sales for Bridesmaids in any meaningful way.  Nevertheless, this is significant money, particularly in a market where fewer discs are being sold and TVs, disc players, gaming consoles and of course home computing devices now routinely offer access to non-disc viewings of movies. 

The elephant in the room on this subject, of course, is the timing of non-disc availability, and the increased pricing that studios could charge for VOD releases if they were at the same time as distribution in theatres (not to mention the marketing savings if films were released in multiple media at the same time, rather than staggered over a period of months).  "True" independent movies (i.e., the ones not from divisions of major studios like Fox Searchlight, Focus and Sony Classics) are now routinely released to VOD day-and-date with a small theatrical release.  Margin Call, famously, has reported VOD revenues essentially equal to the total amount earned by the movie in theatres.  Quite a few films acquired at Sundance this year were explicitly done so for day-and-date release, including such high-profile films as Arbitrage (starring Richard Gere, Susan Sarandon and Brit Marling), Lay the Favorite (with Bruce Willis, Vince Vaughn, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Rebecca Hall) and Bachelorette (with Kirsten Dunst, Isla Fisher and Lizzie Caplan).  The latter 2 are being released by divisions of The Weinstein Company, which isn't known for leaving money on the table. 

Because these movies have limited theatrical distribution in the first place, and they tend to be released to smaller theatre chains with less leverage, there hasn't been much trouble about the day-and-date releases.  The major theatre chains, however, have been adamant that they will do everything in their power to keep a major studio from experimenting with day-and-date release--or even with any VOD release accelerated beyond the current norms.  Last year Universal wanted to try a very limited test of Tower Heist (at the probably doomed price of $59.99) a few weeks into its theatrical run in a small geographic area, and the chains made it clear that they would boycott the movie (at the very least) rather than allow that to happen.  Proposals have been made about allowing theatres to share in some portion of day-and-date revenue in consideration for ticket sales they might be losing, but those ideas have gone nowhere.

One can't blame the theatres, which see the combination of increasingly high-level home theatre systems and potential simultaneous availability of product as a death knell for their business.  Record stores simply don't exist anymore, and bookstores are becoming downright nostalgic; they don't want to be next.  There are also those who passionately believe that any decrease in theatrical attendance will ultimately cost the studios more than any momentary gain, because of the stability (and high cost) of theatre ticket prices compared to what they believe can realistically be charged for VOD, even on a day-and-date basis.  (The model for this disaster, of course, is the music business.)  The question is whether audiences will continue to flock to theatres if they can't watch new movies at home, or just do something else with their time.  The data so far is meager, ambiguous and open to many interpretations (usually slanted by vested interests, financial or otherwise).  Attendance was down last year in the US, including for what were supposed to be "sure-thing" franchise titles, but so far 2012 has been healthy, with some huge tentpole extravaganzas (Dark Knight Rises, Amazing Spider-Man, etc) due this summer. 

The one thing that's certain, in the vacuum that's been created by the theatre chains and their refusal to allow traditional distribution to be touched, is that this is an issue that's not going away.  The studios feel that they're losing out on revenue and spending more on marketing than they should be, and in a low-margin business like film production, those are precious commodities.  It's no accident that Universal wants people to know how strong the VOD market is becoming.  Push, in the next several years, will come to shove.

Deadline has early figures for Friday, and they indicate that Open Road's THE GREY will, as expected, win the day and weekend.  If the early estimate of $6.2M for Friday holds, it could gross around $15M for the weekend.  That's less than previous Liam Neeson vehicles Taken ($25M) and Unknown ($22M), but still impressive for a more old-fashioned man-against-the-elements adventure.

Lionsgate/Summit's ONE FOR THE MONEY seems to be headed for about $12M over the weekend, a bit better than projected, but still the lowest opening of Katherine Heigl's starring career.  Even worse is the same studio's (now that Lionsgate and Summit have merged) MAN ON A LEDGE, which may only make $6-7M for the weekend in what will be a short theatrical run.

Holdovers UNDERWORLD: AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), RED TAILS (Fox) and CONTRABAND (Universal) are all looking at declines in the 50% neighborhood, but Relativity's HAYWIRE may take an over 60% hit.

Among the newly-minted Oscar nominees, Warners's EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE didn't add any theatres and should fall only 30-35%.  Fox Searchlight's THE DESCENDANTS almost quadrupled its theatres to 2000, and will increase sharply from last weekend, but with a per-theatre average of only around $3K.  Meanwhile, Weinstein Company's THE ARTIST continues to excite critics and Academy members far more than audiences, as its expansion to 900 theaters only yields around a $3500 average.

Due to the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday, all studios are estimating low Sunday drops, although some are projecting more aggressively than others.

UNIVERSAL:  CONTRABAND held almost even on Saturday, which is good for an action movie, and is projecting a reasonable (given the holiday) 21% drop on Sunday.  It should get to $28-29M for the full holiday weekend, and then hope to withstand the flurry of new action pictures arriving on Friday.

DISNEY:  BEAUTY & THE BEAST 3D went up 20% on Saturday, not a huge increase for a family movie that should be getting the benefit of the matinee audience.  The studio is estimating only an 8% drop on Sunday, by far the lowest in the Top 10, and we'll see if that holds.  Meanwhile, WAR HORSE is projecting a weekend drop of only 35%, but even if that's accurate, the picture's waning Oscar hopes mean that it will have to look for enormous international overperformance to have a hope of seeing profit.

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE had a very strong 38% increase on Saturday, and the 25% estimated drop for Sunday makes sense.  The likely $14M 4-day total isn't impressive, but with no family competition hitting the market until Big Miracle on February 3, it has a chance to stay in theatres for a while.  The studio's holdover SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS had a good weekend hold, and while the picture still won't match the performance of the first in the series, it'll be in the neighborhood.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE hung in there in 6 theatres, dropping only 11% for the 3-day weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY had a solid $6700 average in 802 theatres over Fri-Sun, although that was less than Contraband and Beauty averaged in triple as many theatres.  Since Meryl Streep is guaranteed an Oscar nomination (and could win a Golden Globe tonight), the picture should have several solid weeks of playing time.  The studio got what it wanted from the limited expansion of THE ARTIST, able to report a 4% weekend increase by upping the theatre count 20%.  Its other awards season player MY WEEK WITH MARILYN is out of steam with a big (considering the holiday) 45% drop from last weekend.

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE tried an expansion this weekend to 494 theatres, but found no audience interest with a $1500 per-theatre average (over 3 days).  A DANGEROUS METHOD had a smaller expansion to 104 theatres, and fared better, with a $5500 average (virtually even with THE ARTIST).  A SEPARATION is holding well, with only a 14% drop in 6 theatres.

PARAMOUNT:  The ranking may well change once actual numbers are in for Sunday, but as of now, THE DEVIL INSIDE has the 19th biggest 2d weekend drop in movie history (12th if you limit the count to movies in over 1000 theatres)--and it's only holding that well because of the low Sunday drop due to the holiday weekend.  On a happier note, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL continues to hold very well, and now looks like it will be the only holiday release to earn over $200M in the US (and much more overseas), and could challenge the $215M earned by MI2, so far the most successful of the franchise.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, though, is losing theatres and heading south--it will do OK overall because of the huge foreign overperformance, but we'll see if the promised sequels are ever produced.  YOUNG ADULT lost more than half its theatres this weekend and is officially a (moderate budget-sized) disaster.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO continues to show surprising resilience at the boxoffice, with the best hold of any holiday release.  The fact that it now looks certain to make over $100M in the US should help David Fincher decide to stay with the franchise.  (And his DGA nomination won't hurt either.)

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS performs as it has been for weeks, quietly making its way to almost $50M at the boxoffice with barely a ripple.  SHAME is at a $3500 average in 41 theatres and will need awards help if it's not to fade away.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY took a bigger hit in its 2d wide weekend than the studio would have liked, with a 42% drop over 3 days that was one of the heaviest in the Top 15 (and that was despite increasing the theatre count by about 10%).  The cerebral, complicated thriller may be hitting mainstream audience resistence.  PARIAH expanded a bit to 24 theatres and had a mediocre $4000 average over 3 days.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED and WE BOUGHT A ZOO both jogged in place, neither one an outright flop, but each a disappointment.

INDIES:  The acclaimed 3D PINA (IFC) had a very nice $18K average in 6 theatres.  In 2 NY theatres, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) reached its art-house audience with a $22K average. Angelina Jolie's  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) has already hit a wall, with only a $2200 average as it expanded to 18 theatres.

The Martin Luther King holiday weekend, a relatively small one for Hollywood because many people work on Monday, begins.

UNIVERSAL: The studio made the fairly extraordinary decision to sit out the holiday movie season entirely, presumably because they didn't think any of their product could compete.  They did, however, spend a lot of money marketing CONTRABAND, which wouldn't open for a month.  The effort paid off with an extremely solid Friday that could lead to a 4-day weekend approaching $30M.  But all that advertising was pricey, and the picture will have to achieve a substantial total to make it worthwhile.  It should help that the movie is quite entertaining, leading to good word-of-mouth (although there are quite a few action movies arriving as competition in the coming weeks).

DISNEY:  The studio's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had a well-chosen release date, a holiday when the holiday family movies (including Disney's own War Horse) are running out of steam but the other studios aren't getting involved.  The result is a $25M+ 4-day weekend that will pay for the minimal cost of the 3D transfer and also feed sales of the new homevideo edition.  

WARNERS:  JOYFUL NOISE was hoping to hit the holiday's family audience too, but so far it's not working out so well.  With a 4-day weekend unlikely to reach $15M, the picture will have to hope for good word-of-mouth (which the faith-based audience sometimes provides) to stay in theatres for a while.  And the studio has stuck doggedly to its strategy on EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which will finally expand next week, and which is still earning a very good $15K in each of the 6 theatres where it started on Christmas Day.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE IRON LADY expanded well to 800 theatres, and should have a per-theatre number for Friday-Sunday (plus a little extra for the Monday holiday) comparable to the one Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had when it did the same expansion a week ago.  The picture will be hoping, of course, for a Meryl Streep victory at the Golden Globes on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the studio is playing a bit of a shell game with THE ARTIST, increasing the theatre count (to 216) just enough so that the weekend total (around $1.1-1.2M) stays steady, even as the per-theatre figure falls by 20%.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, which lost almost one-third of its theatres this week, badly needs Michelle Williams to win the Comedy Actress Golden Globe.  (Don't ask how that movie is a "comedy".)

SONY CLASSICS:  CARNAGE expanded to 494 theatres, but will need major Golden Globe help to keep those screens very long.  It's headed for a $1500 per-theatre average.  

HOLDOVERS:  Nobody who saw THE DEVIL INSIDE (Paramount) last weekend could look at themselves in the mirror this week, and the result should be one of the 10-15 largest 2d weekend drops in history (and it would have been worse if Sunday hadn't been part of a holiday weekend).  That was by far the most dramatic drop, with the holiday movies aimed at adults looking at 30-40% declines, and the family movies getting a Sunday advanrage from the holiday for a 10-25% fall.  YOUNG ADULT (Paramount), though, gave up the ghost (unless Charlize Theron pulls out an upset Globe win), losing more than half its theatres. 

LIMITED RELEASES:    PARIAH (Focus) expanded to 24 theatres and should do an OK $5K average.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) expanded to 18 and should do a less OK $3K in each.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) returned from its holiday-week awards-eligibility run to 1 NY theatre, where the buzz on Tilda Swinton's performance and local raves should get it to $50K over the long weekend.  

According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, the weekend is looking auspicious for Mark Wahlberg's CONTRABAND.  The modestly budgeted thriller (which, however, Universal has been expensively marketing for a solid month) is reporting a $7.7M Friday, which could mean $25-28M over the 4-day holiday weekend.

Disney's 3D re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is also looking strong, with about $25M over the long weekend.  Weinstein Company's expansion of IRON LADY, with Oscar hopeful Meryl Streep, should perform very well at only 800 theatres, with $6M or so over the holiday.  The early numbers for Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah vehicle JOYFUL NOISE are more low-key in a wider release, with perhaps $15M by Monday.

To no one's surprise, word of mouth caught up quickly with Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE, heading for a plunge of 75% or more that may not reach $9M for the long weekend.  The holiday holdovers, however, seem to be robust, with drops of less than 40% projected for Paramount's MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL, Warners' SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS and Sony's THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO.  

CONTRABAND is a B movie, but oddly enough, that's one thing in short supply these days.  Action movies in modern Hollywood usually come with giant CG-laden budgets, or with a Drive-like overweening sense of self-importance.  A modest picture that simply wants to entertain for a couple of hours, and does, increasingly feels like a rare treat.

Eventually Contraband falls victim to the need to be bigger than it needed, but its first half is great fun.  Skillfully,  the picture takes us into the world of smuggling as it's practiced on a day-to-day basis in the port of New Orleans, and on a run between that city and Panama.  Our surrogate for these lessons is the ultimate in working-class millionaire movie stars, Mark Wahlberg.

Wahlberg plays Chris Farraday, who was once the best smuggler around; the most gifted member of a family in the business, he was the one who didn't get caught.  When we meet him, he's gone straight, with his own home security firm, a lovely wife (Kate Beckinsale) and 2 kids.  Of course, this being a movie, he's pulled back in for One Last Job, when his brother-in-law Andy (Caleb Landry Jones) has to dump the cocaine he's been smuggling for the evil Briggs (Giovanni Ribisi) after the Coast Guard raids the boat.  Andy will be killed unless he repays Briggs for the dope, and as an honorable man and the only person capable of handling the operation, Chris takes over.  Even when stepping away from the straight-and-narrow, Chris won't smuggle drugs.  Giant racks of counterfeit currency, however--that's a different story.  So Chris leaves Kate and the kids in the care of his best friend and former partner, recovering alcoholic Sebastian (Ben Foster), and heads to Panama.

All of this is a higher-pitched version of the 2008 Icelandic film Reykjavik-Rottterdam.  That picture was directed by Oskar Jonasson and written by Jonasson and Arnaldur Indrioason, and starred Baltasar Kormakur, also one of the producers, in the Chris role.  Here's where it gets a bit odd:  Kormakur, although not the director of Reykjavik-Rotterdam, is himself an Icelandic director of note, and he makes his US filmmaking debut as director of Contraband (script by Aaron Guzikowski).  Kormakur does a very capable job setting out the millieu of the docks without overdoing the New Orleans atmosphere, and he handles the plot set-up in a convincing, workmanlike fashion.

Once the movie gets to Panama, it becomes more of a big Hollywood production, first with a large-scale action sequence that's fun to watch but out of keeping with the movie's tone (and which doesn't justify the Wahlberg character's presence in the sequence particularly well).  Then the melodrama starts ramping up, in ways that are alternately predictable and implausible--the latter especially at the end, with a twist that feels like it was added after test screenings.  All of this may boost the movie's boxoffice, but makes it less satisfying as a narrative.  

The picture is still much more worthwhile than an empty action buffet like the Sherlock Holmes sequel.  Wahlberg, as much as any current star, casts himself (except in his occasional forays into comedy) with an old-Hollywood sense of exactly how his persona works, and while no one could say the role of Chris stretches him as an actor, he's thoroughly comfortable in the part.  Kate Beckinsale streaks her hair and has a tattoo on her wrist, but if the idea was to toughen her up in the way Amy Adams did so astonishingly in The Fighter, lightning didn't strike twice.  Ribisi turns on his Mickey Rourke as the hissable villain, and Foster's casting is probably too on the button (his very presence in the part says too much).  There are also some very fine character actors in smaller roles, like J. K. Simmons, Diego Luna and Lukas Haas.  

Contraband is well put together, with fine photography by Barry Aykroyd and slick editing by Elisabet Ronaldsdottir (who had edited the original Reykjavik-Rotterdam).  In his Hollywood debut, Kormakur handles crashing trucks and shoot-outs well enough to be considered for any mediocre franchise--but it would nice to think he might resist the call to become just another big-budget hack, and stick with the unpretentious craftsmanship he shows here.  Hollywood, and audiences, could use more of that.

Live by Cinemascore, die by Cinemascore.

THE DEVIL INSIDE:  The most hilarious studio event of the last 24 hours has been Paramount's frantic attempt to argue that an "F" Cinemascore for THE DEVIL INSIDE, making it one of the half-dozen worst exit-polled movies of the past several years, isn't really that bad if you take out your abacus and do their version of the math.  The studio's spin has blanketed Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, and no doubt other industry mouthpieces.  At SHOWBUZZDAILY, we don't put much stock in Cinemascore to begin with, but the studios normally cling to every B+ and A- like guarantees of Oscar glory, so the ego involved in arguing that the lowest possible score is not-so-bad is much like a parent insisting their kid's getting expelled from school is some kind of triumph.  Spin aside, Devil Inside had a remarkably strong, if predictably front-loaded, $34.5M weekend, with a 30% drop on Saturday and another 50% (which may end up being low) projected for Sunday.  Paramount would be best advised to shut up and count its money.  

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  A very fine expansion with $5.8M in 809 theatres (the studio is currently projecting a very low Sunday drop, so that number could end up slightly lower), with the best per-screen average (other than Devil Inside) for any picture this weekend in more than 11 theatres.

WIDE HOLDOVERS:  The smallest drop in the Top 10 was for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony), with a mere 24% fall as it tries to hack its way to $100M.  Then MI4 (Paramount) and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 (Warners) continued to hold well with declines in the 30-35% area.  Sherlock also won the weekend internationally, with $43M in 50 territories that Warners says puts the film almost 20% above its predecessor at the same point in its release overseas, while MI4 was in 3rd place overseas with $28M.  This was followed by the more family-oriented CHIPWRECKED (Fox) (which was in 2d place overseas with $30M), TINTIN (Paramount), WAR HORSE (Disney) and WE BOUGHT A ZOO (Fox), which all fell 36-42%.  Bringing up the rear of the top 10 was NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners), with a 49% drop.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) managed to keep its per-theatre number at $34K by adding a theatre (that's a 25% increase when you only start with 4).  CARNAGE (Sony Classics) went from 12 to 15 theatres and had a $7500 average.  PARIAH (Focus) increased from 4 to 11 theatres, with a $10K average.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) doubled its theatres to 6, with an excellent $16K average.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) also had a $16K average in 6, which was a tiny 13% decrease from last week.  IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict) went from 2 theatres to 7, with only a $4500 average.  SHAME (Fox Searchlight), meanwhile, lost a few theatres, and had a $4500 average at 45.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein) also lost some houses, and is at a dismal $1400 average in 584, while stable-mate THE ARTIST (Weinstein) had an OK $6500 average at 172 (the latter number includes a projected miniscule 7% decline on Sunday).  A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) had a $4800 average at 64.

Dateline has preliminary figures for Saturday and the weekend, and as expected, Paramount's THE DEVIL INSIDE took a significant 25+% hit in its second day, a trend that will no doubt continue as stories of audiences in open revolt at the movie's lack of an ending multiply.  Even so, it's looking at a $35M weekend at least, making next weekend's inevitable massive drop seem far, far away.

Otherwise the holdovers seem on target with Friday's numbers.  The kid-oriented movies like CHIPWRECKED, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN and WE BOUGHT A ZOO got a big boost from matinee audiences and went up from 80% to more than double; pictures for older crowds like THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO and WAR HORSE had increases of 30-40% (although TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY looks to do a bit better than that); and big-tent franchises like MI4 and SHERLOCK HOLMES 2 should rise 40-50%.  

Everything will come down on Sunday, and action movies may drop a bit extra because the NFL playoff games start earlier than they did on Saturday.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

Everyone wanted to go to the movies on the first full weekend of 2012.

PARAMOUNT:  The studio went straight to its Paranormal Activity playbook to launch THE DEVIL INSIDE (pre-release screenings, months of buzz), and it all worked:  the picture should gross at least $30M in its opening weekend, and with a $1M production cost and relatively minimal marketing, that means serious profit.  No one expects the movie to last long (from all accounts, its abrupt non-ending has patrons all but storming the concession stands), but at those prices, who cares?  Meanwhile, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL held very well (as did virtually everything in the week's Top 10) and could bully its way to $200M in the US.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN had a so-so hold and its US result will be negligible compared to its international success.  HUGO and YOUNG ADULT, though, were on the low end of the weekend's holdovers and are shedding theatres and boxoffice potential.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY expanded to 809 theatres and made its way into the week's Top 10, with a likely $5.5M and the highest per-theatre gross in the group (other than Devil Inside).  For a cerebral thriller, these are great numbers--if the Academy can just see fit to bless it with some nominations, the movie could become a mainstream success.  PARIAH expanded slightly to 11 theatres, and should get to a decent $10-12K per theatre for the weekend.

WEINSTEIN:  THE IRON LADY added a theatre for a total of 5, and that cushioned its Weekend 2 fall to a somewhat misleadingly low 25%.  THE ARTIST held well with only a 22% decline, but its likely $6K average at 172 theatres (adding 5) continues to be underwhelming, and eventually the studio is going to have to expand it beyond a tiny number of art-houses.  The perils of that are shown by MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, in 584 theaters (a loss of 46) with a lousy per-theatre average that won't hit $1500 for the weekend.

FILMDISTRICT:  Angelina Jolie's IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY expanded a bit to 7 theatres, and held pretty well on a per-theatre basis.  Unfortunately, it's holding at a low $4K per theatre.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO had the lowest drop in the Top 10, but that still means a hold at a much lower level than the studio was hoping:  with perhaps $11M for the weekend, the picture will still struggle to get to $100M in the US.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS held fine, and continues on its pace to approach but not match its predecessor's boxoffice.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, not surprisingly, crashed now that its holiday is over, and won't reach $60M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE is still 2 weeks from national expansion--word of mouth is clearly good, as it had the lowest drop on the board while remaining in 6 theatres.  But its $15K or so per-theatre number is unexciting, and the strategy to keep it out of wide release for a full month is looking like a disaster in the making, unless the Academy notices that it exists.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED had a fine enough hold, and still won't get within $85M of either of the franchise's other entries.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO could make it to $75M in the US, which while far from great, could allow it to hit profit if the picture finds an audience overseas. 

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE isn't looking at much more than $75M in the US unless its probable Oscar nominations can lift it up.  (Wins are considerably less likely.).  THE MUPPETS took a big hit for the weekend, and won't get to $90M.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS continued as it has been, with a mediocre $3500 average in 737 theatres despite all the buzz and awards attention.  It may well win the Golden Globe (it won't face The Artist because of the way the Globes are structured), and the question is whether that and Oscar nominations will spur the film to break out later in the month.  SHAME dropped a few theatres, and is headed for a $4-5K average in 45.

Next week, the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend brings out a few relatively major releases:  Universal's Mark Wahlberg thriller CONTRABAND (which it's been marketing for months), Fox's Tuskegee Airmen story RED TAILS (from producer George Lucas), and Warners' Dolly Parton/Queen Latifah family music drama JOYFUL NOISE, as well as Disney's 3D wide re-release of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST.

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year's Day wasn't the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL's Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it's likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M.  YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it'll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it'll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news--a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today--but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED really faltered--instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today.  That'll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors).  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE didn't go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected--it went down 27%.  Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today.  If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point.  Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we'll see about that one, too.

SONY:  The studio's projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was--the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%.  The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today.  That'll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that's nothing special.  SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today.  It's still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  THE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend.  THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn't quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that's still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4.  PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn't do better than $16K average over 4 days.

SONY CLASSICS:  The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.  

With one startling exception and a couple of smaller ones, the holiday crop of movies declined on Saturday and are expected to recover on New Year's Day.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL went down 18% and is expected to rise 33% today.  It should hit $142M by the end of the 4-day holiday weekend.   THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is up and down a more orderly 23%, and should be at about $52M with the extra day.  HUGO was a little more stable, down only 7% but also up only 15%.  It should be just a touch below $50M by the end of Monday.  YOUNG ADULT went down 24% Saturday but is looking for a very large 48% increase on Sunday--even if that happens, it won't hit $13M by the end of the holidays.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was down 16% and up 23%, and should be just under $140M coming out of the holidays.  NEW YEAR'S EVE had its last burst of audience interest on Dec. 31, and is one of the only movies expected to decline on Sunday.  It still won't be at $50M after Monday, and its shelf-life is now done.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE went down 22% and may only rise 10% on Sunday, giving it an unimpressive $17K average in 6 theatres for the 3-day weekend that should rise a bit to $20K with Monday included.  

DISNEY:  What got into WAR HORSE's hay on Saturday?  With almost every other picture falling as per seasonal pattern, and after an unexciting week at the boxoffice, Steven Spielberg's epic weirdly went up 20%, and expects to rise another 19% on Sunday.  It's hard to know what happened, but no doubt Disney and DreamWorks are hoping it's a harbinger of things to come.  The studio's only other picture in the market is THE MUPPETS, nearing the end of its run with perhaps $85M in total.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED lost 32% on Saturday and should make up most of it on Sunday.  It should just get to $100M with Monday included.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had a less bumpy ride, down only 7% on Saturday but also expecting a much smaller increase today, on its way to perhaps $47M after Monday.  

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO went down a standard 21% on Saturday, but is anticipating, for no clear reason, a whopping 59% increase on Sunday.  If that actually happens, it could be at $62M after Monday, although an ultimate gross of $100M may still be a stretch without some awards attention.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS had a good Saturday with a 15% increase, and is expecting to simply hold steady on Sunday--it should hit $40M with Monday included, but its $6K average for the long weekend is still only so-so.  In limited release, SHAME fell a heavy 38% on Saturday but is projecting a huge 65% Sunday increase--even if it achieves that, a $5K average over the 4-day weekend in only 55 theatres is, well, flaccid.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  All its films are in limited release.  THE ARTIST, in 167 theatres, is still very mild, reporting a 13% increase on Saturday and 20% more Sunday, which makes for a 4-day average around $10K.  THE IRON LADY is off to a great start but in only 4 theatres--down 15% then up 20%, it could hit a per-theatre average of $70K over 4 days.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, the company's widest release at 630 theatres, is still a picture no one wants to see.  Even with a small 6% drop on Saturday and a 20% Sunday increase, its 4-day average will probably be around $2K.

FOCUS:  The likely $28K 4-day average for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY in 55 theatres is very impressive for a 4th weekend--now the question is when and how far the studio will expand it.  PARIAH's likely $15K average in 4 days and 4 theatres doesn't show much promise.

SONY CLASSICS:  A SEPARATION is off to a good start, with what should be a $25+K average in 3 theatres.  

According to Deadline, most films were down 20-30% from Friday, which is par for the course on New Year's Eve, due to early theater closings and non-movie plans for the night.  But there are a few oddities:

Most notably, Deadline's numbers have WAR HORSE suddenly jumping up more than 20% for the day.  If that number holds, it would certainly be good news for DreamWorks and Disney, but there's no clear explanation for it, since the movie didn't add screens, other family movies (Alvin and Tintin) were down 25+% on Saturday, and good word of mouth doesn't generally kick in after a week of sluggish boxoffice. 

More modestly, WE BOUGHT A ZOO was reportedly up about 2%, and NEW YEAR'S EVE was naturally down only about 5% on its name-day.

Boxoffice should increase on New Year's Day, then start declining on Monday before it falls apart on Tuesday as life returns to normal.

As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Boxoffice Report, Friday's numbers were solid but lacking any breakout excitement.  First, let's take a quick look at the limited-run Oscar hopefuls:

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein):  Meryl-Streep-as-Margaret-Thatcher came roaring into the awards mix with a terrific $19K average in 4 theatres that should lead it to a $75-80K average over the 4 day holiday weekend.  The film's appeal outside big-city art houses is questionable, though, so here's one of several cases where Harvey Weinstein will have to play the expansion game very carefully.

A SEPARATION (Sony Classics):  This excellent Iranian import, a front-runner for the Foreign-Language Film Oscar, started with a very good $6K average in 3 theatres that should get it to around $25K per-theatre over the holiday weekend.

PARIAH (Focus):  Bounced back a bit from Thursday's slump, but its $3500 average in 4 theatres isn't a great start, and it may struggle to reach a $15K average for the weekend.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Continues to be mediocre, with a $2400 average in 167 theatres that won't hit $10K by Jan 2.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Continues to hold very well, with a $6K average on Friday in 55 theatres that should reach $25K over the holiday weekend.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Not doing better than OK, with a $1500 average on Friday in 55 theatres that might reach $6K for the weekend.  

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict)  The same numbers as Shame ($1500 average Friday for a $6K weekend), but much worse because it's only at 2 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Harvey is 0-for-3 in the breakout hit category, with a dismal $500 average in 630 theatres that won't get past $2K for the weekend.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  The Oscar front-runner no one seems to care about.  It only had a $1500 average in 758 theatres on Friday, and won't get higher than a $6K average for the weekend.  That will put it at $40M, in serious danger of dropping screens by the time the Oscar nominations are announced in late January.  At that point, it's going to be difficult to spark widespread excitement over a picture that's already been playing as a presumptive nominee for 2 full months.

And at the major studios:

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL is the one smash hit of the season, even though it won't be the highest-grossing of the series.  With even bigger numbers pouring in overseas ($200M already, with plenty more to come), announcement of a 5th chapter in the series should be coming any time.  However, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (which Sony distributes overseas) is a major disappointment that will barely recoup its enormous US marketing cost, placing the planned franchise in jeopardy.  The very expensive HUGO, despite its critical adoration, is mostly done with $50M total gross--even an expected Oscar nomination probably won't get it much farther.  And YOUNG ADULT has found no traction at all--the reviews were weaker than expected, and with only $12.5M in the bank by the end of the holidays and an anticipated holiday average under $3K in only 987 theatres, even Charlize Theron's possible Best Actress nomination won't convince more theatres to play it.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS will underperform its predecessor, but a $170-180M gross isn't bad (it might be more accurate to say the first picture overperformed, all things considered).  It's only played in a handful of foreign territories so far, and the results there will determine whether the expensive franchise is worth continuing.  NEW YEAR'S EVE is a flop, although not a very expensive one.  The big disappointment thus far is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which hit a perfect storm of bitterly mixed reviews, some bad scheduling choices and a faltering awards campaign.  This weekend it's headed for a $25K average in 6 theatres, which is OK but not at all the event that the studio needed to propel the film into wide release later in January.

FOX:  ALVIN THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED will be the highest-grossing kids' movie of the season, turn a profit and very possibly justify another installment--but its almost 50% drop from the other films in the series is fairly disastrous, and turns what had been a cash cow into a risk.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO will need help from uncertain foreign revenues if it's to avoid red ink.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO isn't the flop of the season, but it may be the biggest disappointment.  Was it the favorable-but-not-enthusiastic reviews?  The dour tone of the marketing?  An overdose of the franchise, after the successful Swedish films and months of publicity?  In any case, it's going to be hard to justify spending $100M on the sequel--and Fincher, who's perpetually in demand, may well decide to bow out.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, though--that's an (undeserved) flop.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE is sparking very little interest, and at this point seems unlikely to reach $100M despite very aggressive marketing, even with the anticipated Oscar nominations.  It's ironic that since DreamWorks joined Disney, their one smash hit has been the completely unexpected The Help.  This also leads to what could be a very ticklish internal political issue:  does The Help now have a better chance at winning the Oscar than War Horse?  And will Spielberg allow his pet project to fall to second place in the campaigning strategy?  Meanwhile THE MUPPETS was a nice-sized hit due to its relatively modest budget, but it's far from clear that there's a franchise there.  The combined grosses of Disney's 2 holiday pictures won't reach the boxoffice for 2010's Tangled alone--combined with the disappointing US responses to Cars 2 and Pirates 4, it's been an off-year for the studio.

UNIVERSAL:  Sat out the holiday season entirely.  They've been spending a lot of money marketing the Mark Wahlberg action picture CONTRABAND all month, though, giving it the kind of weeks-long push that normally goes to much bigger pictures.  We'll find out in a couple of weeks if the strategy made sense.

Deadline has initial boxoffice figures for Friday, and if the numbers hold, the results seem to be a healthy amount higher than last year's Friday before New Year's, allowing the holiday period--and the year--to end on an up note. (Note, however, that overall comparisons to 2010's holidays are skewed by the fact that 2011 had more new films in release this week than was the case a year ago, increasing the 2011 numbers by sheer tonnage.)

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Leads the way, as it has all through the holidays, with a 30% increase from Thursday to $10.7M.  That should get it to around $140M by Monday, and a total gross somewhere between the finals of the first ($180M) and second ($215M) Mission movies.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners): A 17% increase to $7.4M, which projects to around $135M at the end of the weekend and a final result around $160-170M, about 20% less than the first Sherlock.

ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  A smaller 7% hike from Thursday to $7M, meaning probably $100M by Jan 2 and a $130M total that's far lower than the $217-220M scored by the other Alvin pictures.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  The studio stopped reporting grosses mid-week (never a good sign), but its $5.3M on Friday is probably up around 15% from Thursday, and should mean around $60M by Monday and a very disappointing ultimate gross of $80M or so.  (Tattoo was supposed to be Fincher's "commercial" hit after the "art-house" Social Network,but at those numbers, it'll wind up 20% behind the far lower-budgeted film.)

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Up 15% to around $4.7M, which means around $45M for the holidays and perhaps $70M in all.  That's a lot better than Crowe's flop Elizabethtown, but far from a hit.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A good 25+% increase to $4.6M, but that still puts it in the same neighborhood as We Bought A Zoo at a far higher budget, unless Oscar attention moves it up.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Spielberg's other disappointment should have a modest 7% increase to $4.4M, giving it a soft $50M by Monday and another $70M total.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  One day from its sell-through date, with another 25-30% increase to $2.3M.  It should collapse for good on Sunday and get little higher than $50M in all.

THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Managed a 30% increase to $1.6M, but percentages don't matter much at those numbers.  Its final total may not even reach $20M.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis all holiday weekend!

The boxoffice was steady as expected yesterday, virtually everything within 5%, up or down, from where it was on Wednesday.  There were just a couple of exceptions:

PARIAH (Focus):  Proved to be scarily front-loaded, down a horrible 55% on its 2d day to an average $2500 in 4 theares.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  Gave back most of Wednesday's increase with a 7% drop, leaving it at an $4800 average in 6.

Business should pick up today, then drop tomorrow (but not nearly as much as Christmas Eve), rise again on New Year's Day, and fall for Monday, the end of the holiday rush.  

The boxoffice did more or less what it was supposed to on Wednesday, drifting down 5-10% from Tuesday.  Thursday should be fairly steady, then business should have a bit of a roller-coaster ride:  an increase on Friday, down somewhat on New Year's Eve, back up on New Year's Day, and down again on January 2, before collapsing when everyone goes back to work on Wednesday.  

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount), ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) and SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) remained at the top of the day (Alvin nosing ahead of Sherlock on Wednesday), and here are some other highlights:

PARIAH (Focus):  One of the last pictures to enter 2011's awards hunt is this low-budget, well-reviewed independent film.  It got off to a fine start in 4 theatres with a $5500 average.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  Still hasn't found bottom, with another 11% drop from Tuesday, at the higher end of the day's declines.  It's unlikely to reach $50M by the end of the holidays, and the numbers only go down after that.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to enjoy its few days of glory, with a 4% increase on Wednesday.  There's only $38M in the bank so far, though, and 3 more days before it literally becomes last year's news, so none of it means much.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  A 11% Wednesday increase was the first good news this picture has had, lifting it to $5200 per theatre in 6.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  The adult audience also came out for this one with a 10% hike to a $1600 average in 3.

No new wide openings this weekend, but limited releases include the 2 final Oscar contenders of the year:  Meryl Streep's turn as Margaret Thatcher in THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), and Iran's Foreign-Language Film hopeful A SEPARATION (Sony Classics).

Be sure to  read Mitch Metcalf's New Year's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holidays for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

The holiday celebrations at the studios may have been a bit premature.  

Traditionally, the Tuesday after Christmas sees a 10-20% drop from Monday, and that number becomes the template for the rest of the holiday period.  But yesterday, aside from the films aimed straight at the family crowd, the drops were much worse.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Fell 34% to $9.6M, which probably means around $145M by Jan 2 and a dwindling chance of reaching $200M.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  Down 32% to $7.3M, meaning perhaps $140M by Jan. 2 and a final result 20% lower than the first Sherlock.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Thriving with a tiny 2% drop to $6.8M and should be over $100M by the end of the holidays, although that's still a huge drop from the earlier pictures in the series.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony):  31% down to $4.7M, so perhaps $60M by Jan 2 and $80M in total.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount):  Down an OK (for a family picture) 15% to $4.6M, which will still leave it with only around $60M at the end of the holidays and a very dour US total around $75-80M.

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th):  Off 18% to $4.3M, so probably under $50M for the holidays and not much upside afterward.

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney):  A whopping 40% plummet to $4.2M.  With probably $45M by Jan 2 and a likely domestic total not much better than Tintin's, it's time to wonder how much a mediocre boxoffice will affect the film's Oscar chances.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Continuing to reap the benefits of its upcoming holiday with a small 12% drop, but it's already so low ($1.7M) that the few days remaining till Dec 31 won't get it much closer to break-even.

THE DARKEST HOUR (Summit):  Continues to free-fall another 30% to $1.5M and a terrible $15-20M for the holidays.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Finding no traction with another 31% drop, leaving its per-theatre at $1800.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Also down 30%, but the per-theatre is a more robust $4300.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Off 26% to a dreadful per-theatre of $390.

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners):  Going nowhere with another 33% drop, leaving its per-theatre at $4700 in only 6 theatres.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict):  Also off 33% at 3 theatres, with a low $1500 average.

If EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE accomplishes nothing else--and it actually accomplishes quite a bit--it's served to let us know exactly where the third rail of current American popular culture is located.  It's not every day that the august NY Times informs its readers that their correct response to a drama should be "rage," but that's the vitriolic conclusion of Manohla Dargis's review (this same week she had no such trouble with the sex-plus-Bosnian-war-atrocities parade of In the Land of Blood and Honey).  This is where we are:  it is now socially acceptable to tell fictional stories amid the background of the Holocaust, Bosnia, Vietnam, Pearl Harbor, any number of other wars (if you go back to World War I and really lay on the suds like War Horse, Dargis's colleague A. O Scott will praise your "bravery"), racial bigotry, religious conflict--but the one subject that can't be touched is 9/11.  Is it that 10 years isn't enough distance?  The fact that this particular terrible event took place in New York, the nexus of US cultural standard-making?  Others can speculate.  For the purposes of Extremely Loud, however, it means that a lovely, small-scale drama that happens to use 9/11 as its point of inception has become more divisive critically (57% among Rotten Tomatoes "Top Critics") than Shame and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo combined.

Hysterical overreaction aside, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, based by screenwriter Eric Roth on the novel by Jonathan Safran Foer, is simply a story about a troubled boy named Oskar (played in the film by Thomas Horn) attempting to cope with an awful loss, the death of his beloved father Thomas (Tom Hanks).  That death happened to occur at the Twin Towers on what Oskar calls "the worst day."  Oskar is enormously bright and creative but also obsessive and neurotic by nature--there is the suggestion that he may have Aspergers--and beyond the grief one would expect and the way it affects his relationship with his mother (Sandra Bullock), he's also nursing his own secret about that day that we don't find out until late in the story.  

Oskar's dad adapted to the boy's tendencies by designing games for the two of them that were detail-oriented treasure hunts, where Oskar's devotion to fanatical organization and tracking down every angle of a potential clue helped him to solve some invented mystery.  After Thomas's death, Oskar becomes obsessed with the imagery and events of what happened in the Trade Center, and then he seizes on something in his father's belongings--an unexplained key labeled "Black"--and in his desire to establish one last connection with his dad, he decides that this is a final puzzle that's been left for him:  he has to track down the person named Black and find out what this key opens.  As he traipses all over the New York area, he has the help of his grandmother's mysterious tenant "The Renter" (Max Von Sydow) who can't or won't speak, and communicates by means of notes and the words "Yes" and "No" imprinted on the palms of his hands.  As the story develops, we find out The Renter's behavior is part of his own idiosyncratic reaction to great loss.

We in the audience understand early on that Oskar is on a search that can't supply the answer he really seeks, but Extremely Loud is more than anything else a study of grief in its various and very personal forms:  Oskar's, his mother's, The Renter's, and all the people he meets on his journeys.  In that sense, the fact that this particular death occurred on 9/11 isn't exploitative, or "kitsch":  it ties into the entire city's sense of grief, and Oskar, although concentrating on his own quest, is able by it to make a connection with all the people he meets (and they, even if he's not aware of it, are making connections to him); in this way they can begin to heal.

Not a terribly disturbing or offensive notion, is it?  One can certainly criticize Extremely Loud's central concept as precious, or find Oskar's mannerisms annoying, or consider the multiple endings too heavy-handed.  Those are a matter of taste.  But to blast the movie as socially unacceptable for its very existence feels like a statement more about the critic than the work of art.

In this case, despite those arguable flaws, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is an exquisite piece of filmmaking.  Director Stephen Daldry, dealing with material that requires enormous dexterity of tone, handles the whimsy and sadness beautifully, working with a technical crew that includes the great cinematographer Chris Menges (his films include The Mission, The Killing Fields and Michael Collins), editor Claire Simpson, composer Alexandre Desplat and production designer K.K. Barrett (a veteran of Spike Jonze's films).

The performances are sublime.  It's almost impossible to believe that Thomas Horn had never acted before (he was discovered as a contestant--and winner--on Teen Jeopardy):  in a stunningly difficult role that requires him to be center stage for the bulk of the story and share the screen with some of the world's best actors, he never makes a wrong step.  The supporting cast, apart from Hanks, Bullock and the spectacularly good Von Sydow, includes Viola Davis, Jeffrey Wright, John Goodman and Zoe Caldwell.  

It's unfortunate that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is in danger of becoming the victim of a cultural war beyond its control.  All filmmakers can do is tell the best story they can, trying their utmost to move us, make us laugh and cry and feel, and illuminate the human condition.  Extremely Loud is one of the best pictures of the year; let the pundits rage on.

As is traditionally the case, movie boxoffice declined sharply on December 24, the lowest ebb of the holiday period.  According to Deadline, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount) remains #1, with $5.6M on Saturday, a 40+% fall from Friday.  Similarly, SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners) fell around 45% to $3.8M on Saturday.  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th) was down almost 50% to $2.8M

This week's openings continued to run below last week's.  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) slumped a full 50% on Saturday to $2.3M.  It was followed by THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount), currently reported as a more modest 35% drop, also to $2.3M.  The last of the pack is WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th), down 40% to a sadly uninspiring $1.8M

Business should recover on Christmas Day (which will be fueled as well by the arrivals of WAR HORSE and THE DEADLIEST HOUR), and then hit its holday high point on Monday.  Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all through the holiday season for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!