Movie Box Review

The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 16 and March 1, with about 16 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABC.  GCB continues to be the top ABC priority as it heads toward Sunday night's premiere.  On-air promotion has been heavy, averaging 38 seconds per hour over the last two weeks.  Over the past week, the on-air promo commitment to GCB has been 46 seconds per hour, nearing saturation levels.  As we have seen with NBC's Awake, heavy promotion does not guarantee a high premiere rating.  A compatible lead-in and an easy to communicate premise helps, and GCB has both of those things going for it.  Check back later today for a forecast of GCB's premiere ratings.  Promotion for Missing (starring Ashley Judd) has picked up to 20 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and up to 25 seconds per hour over the past week).  Scandal (starring Kerry Washington) premieres later and has fallen down to 8 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and an almost non-existent 2 seconds per hour the past week).  It will be interesting to see if the creative approach for Scandal has been re-tooled when promos start airing again in heavier rotation.  

NBC.  Awake averaged 44 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (peaking at 46 seconds per hour this past week leading up to Thursday's premiere).  The 1.9 Adult 18-49 rating the debut received Thursday at 10 pm is surely a disappointment.  Yes, it built on its Up All Night lead-in, it was in first place in the time period (if you exclude cable and forget it faced repeats on ABC and CBS), it improved on the performance of The Firm, and it slightly beat Prime Suspect's premiere (by all of one tenth of a rating point).  But these are "world's tallest midget" comparisons.  Amazing that some television writers actually picked up on that spin.  The promos were given every opportunity to run, and the audience either was confused or simply didn't care. Next up is Fashion Star, which has averaged 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and 18 seconds over the most recent week).  Look for its allocation to zoom as Awake levels come back down to Earth.  
        
CBS.  Person of Interest stays in the top spot with 23 seconds over the past two weeks.  Even the repeat episode that aired Thursday received heavy support (19 seconds over the past week).  Undercover Boss has received substantial support, 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks and 21 seconds over the past week (actually making it the #1 priority this week only), emphasizing an emotional sell and a teary Popeye's Chicken CEO understanding the pain of Americans.  CBS is hoping Boss can bounce back from last week's 1.9 rating (which featured a rather cold, unemotional CEO, by the way) after the very promising 2.4 rated premiere.  Amid scripted series repeats, Survivor and Amazing Race stand out with original episodes and have also received 18 seconds per hour each.      


FOX.  The heat has started to be turned up on Touch starring Kiefer Sutherland, 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks but up to 23 seconds per hour over the past week.  While not a full commitment when compared to the other networks, Touch is clearly FOX's priority.  Bob's Burgers clocks in at 11 seconds per hour (over both the past two weeks and the past week), while the network has eased off the gas for Breaking In (10 seconds per hour over the past two weeks and a barely noticeable 6 seconds per hour the past week). Not shown on the chart, Q'Viva (Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony scour the world for young talent) premieres Saturday for a short run.  The show has averaged 3 seconds per hour the past two weeks and 7 seconds per hour the past week (with a few spots in American Idol, for Ms. Lopez's benefit).     



                          PROMO WATCH

GCB and the Oscars are the big bets for ABC in recent days, while NBC continues to make an extraordinary push for Awake.  CBS is hoping to take Person of Interest to another level, and FOX just doesn't seem to be making any choices about what to promote hard.  The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 9 and 23, with about 18.5 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABC.  GCB has become the top priority for ABC over the past few weeks, now averaging 21 seconds per hour sampled in prime time.  ABC has been repeating the same 30-second spot over and over (the rhyming spot with "witches" and "riches" instead of the expected "bitches" from the original series title).  The spot is not particularly clever, but ABC is hoping the repetition of the show's premise will cut through.  With a last minute rush of Oscar spots (often over 30 seconds per hour on recent nights), the Academy Awards spots have moved into the #2 priority position, averaging 17 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (after being in the high single digits recently).  Of note, the spots promote the Oscar app and Oscar.com almost as much as the show itself.  (Clips of the still niche The Artist and visuals of Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo are not going to persuade marginal viewers to tune in.)  Revenge remains a fairly important priority (16 seconds per hour), as ABC keeps trying to make it break out  from the 2.5 range into the high-2 rating area.  Scandal is now averaging 11 seconds an hour (up sharply from the middle single digits).  That number is going to continue to rise as we move through March.  Missing (starring Ashley Judd as a CIA agent/ mom searching for her son) is holding at 9 seconds per hour.  It looks like it has the production quality of The Firm, and -- just a hunch -- will not receive much higher promotion levels in coming weeks, as opposed to the Shonda Rhimes project Scandal.

NBC.  Awake premiering next Thursday at 10 in the dead zone time period is now averaging an amazing 41 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  If it fails it won't be for lack of trying.  With Up All Night as its lead in, Awake's success will be based on the inherent appeal of the show's premise, which is described in every spot.  We shall see.  Smash is holding at a very strong 25 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  As the ratings tumble each week (and during each quarter hour that airs), the network is trying every promo trick in the book to get people to hang on.  Last week it was the sex appeal of the characters and storylines.  This week, it's a guest star -- Nick Jonas?!?  Maybe he has a high Q-score with the target audience for a drama about mounting a Broadway musical, but it seems a little desperate or cheesy for a show that relies on critic quotes like "Wow.  Just wow."  Fashion Star is holding at 20 seconds per hour, a very solid level for a new reality show.  The Voice, at 10 seconds per hour, is just enough to keep its name out there, and NBC is using the brief promos effectively to dub the night "Must See Monday".  (At least for the first two hours of the night, it's a very legitimate claim.) 


CBS.  Person of Interest has been anointed by CBS as the new show most worthy of a midseason push.  At 21 seconds per hour the past two weeks, the JJ Abrams-produced freshman number is the #1 priority for the network, which clearly want to see if its ratings can break out of the low-3 range to above a 3.5 rating.  Undercover Boss has received a substantial investment of time the past several nights, moving its average into double digits (11 seconds per hour).  That is low compared to Survivor (19 seconds) and Amazing Race (17), but it is significant for a Friday show, and CBS hopes it can build on the show's promising initial ratings on the tough night.  Just missing the chart below is Late Show with David Letterman (9 seconds per hour), substantially more than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno (5 seconds) or Jimmy Kimmel Live (3 seconds).  Unless the guest is truly newsworthy, however, late night ratings are surprisingly inelastic to promo efforts.   


FOX.  Breaking In has edged up to 12 seconds per hour, up from 10 recently.  And the return of Touch is at a barely-committed 10 seconds per hour.  And pity poor Bob's Burgers (not shown on the chart below) whose return is starting with a base of 6 seconds per hour.  Not that any of those shows will make much of an impact in any scenario -- it's just that FOX doesn't seem to be betting on anything.   



                          PROMO WATCH

In the last post on upscale ratings, we looked at ABC, which has a high number of series that skew substantially toward upper-income viewers but not enough programs with a sizable total audience.  Today, we turn our attention to CBS, which has taken a very different pathway to success: many shows with a large audience although very few series attract upper-income viewers.  While the CBS prime time schedule averages a 2.9 rating with Adults 18-49 this season to date (far superior to ABC's 2.4), CBS falls to a 2.6 rating with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ homes (trailing ABC's 2.7).  The CBS $100K+ index of 91 (100=average and anything under 100 indicates a downscale skew) is the lowest of the four major broadcast networks, and only quasi-network The CW has a lower index (83).   

In the chart below, we have added each CBS regular series (in red) to one of nine categories (based on the combination of high, middle or low rating and upscale, midscale or downscale skew).  Notice how few CBS shows are in the extreme right column (the upscale categories) or the bottom row (the low rating categories).  The CBS line-up is very heavily concentrated in the upper-left area of the chart (high- and middle-rated shows in the downscale and midscale areas). 

Monday Comedies.  The most upscale shows on CBS are the Monday 8-10 pm and Thursday 8:00 pm comedies: How I Met Your Mother (111), Big Bang Theory (105), 2 Broke Girls (100), Two and a Half Men (97) and Mike & Molly (93).  We are categorizing How I Met Your Mother as an upscale show, but keep in mind its index is just over the dividing line and actually is fairly close to the other flagship CBS multi-camera sitcoms.  Although none of these shows has an exceptionally high index (denying the CBS sales department an upscale pricing premium), the ratings are high enough that no one at CBS is going to go hungry anytime soon.  Additionally, the granddaddy of reality shows, Survivor, has an index similar to the CBS comedy hits (99), unspectacular but relatively high for CBS and decent for the reality genre as a whole.

Crime Dramas.  In contrast, crime and detective dramas (the other staple of the CBS schedule) are not exactly magnets for upper-income viewers.  The best index values for this CBS specialty are found with freshman series Person of Interest (89), the veteran NCIS (85) and its spinoff NCIS: Los Angeles (77).  Hawaii Five-0 (83) also fits perfectly in this group and gives up any upscale traction (albeit limited) on CBS Monday earlier in the evening with the comedies.  But others such as Criminal Minds (67), Unforgettable (65), the original CSI (62) and brand extensions CSI: Miami (68) and CSI: New York (65) are positively downscale.  Again, the overall ratings are high enough that the revenue is there -- it's just that the network is leaving money on the advertising negotiating table by repelling viewers with more disposable income.

CBS Sunday.  One upscale oasis on the CBS schedule is Sunday night, with the venerable 60 Minutes boasting a 132 index (much better than the Dateline or 20/20 indices, which are around 100).  Amazing Race, perennial favorite of the TV Academy at Emmy time, with a 134 index also attracts high income viewers (who not surprisingly are also much more likely to have a passport and travel internationally, as lifestyle and psychographic studies consistently show).  Finally, The Good Wife at 9 pm sports a 120 index, clearly the most upscale drama on CBS.  However, the audience size on CBS Sunday is anything but dominant -- so any upscale premium is added to a middling price base.

Certainly, CBS chief Leslie Moonves would say something like, "CBS has a game plan that works very well for us.  As the best broadcaster in the business, CBS attracts more viewers than any other network [i.e., change the subject from 18-49 ratings to 2+ because CBS has huge advantages in the 50+ and 65+ age groups], and we are paid very handsomely by Madison Avenue for our consistent audience delivery.  Let the other networks crow about their ratings with tiny demographic groups like 35-49 year-old professors in New York City.  At CBS, we look at the total score on the scoreboard, and that tally tells us the future is very bright at CBS."  In fact, CBS is in very good overall shape, but imagine their strength if their comedies were more like 120 or 125 index values and if the crime dramas could move into the 100-110 range.  They would be unstoppable.

On NBC, Grimm is now the network's #1 promo priority, based on our sampling of programming over the past week.  Up All Night, which received almost a full minute of promo time in Parenthood last night, moved into the #2 position on the priority list (from #3).  The network really has been pushing tonight's Up All Night episode flashing back to the birth of the baby -- so they have to expect some bump in the rating for the show.  Although it was promoted last night in Parenthood with a 15-second spot, Prime Suspect fell to the #3 priority position.  (Remember, our weekly tally of promo time is a rolling total -- the :15 for Prime Suspect last night goes into the total but the :35 the show received last Tuesday drops out of the total, for a net decline.) 

CBS supported Person of Interest and Unforgettable with 50 seconds of promo time each inside NCIS: Los Angeles last night.  The two first-year dramas are now tied for the top spot in the promo priority chart.  The network promoted nine other shows in the same hour (with mostly :10s and :15s), primarily reminder spots for veteran series.
 

Over the last week, Man Up! has received 160 promo-seconds in our sampling of ABC shows, followed by 120 each for Revenge and Once Upon a Time.  Now that Man Up! has premiered, look for Once Upon a Time to take the top spot very quickly, perhaps as soon as tomorrow's report.  ABC has been very methodical and disciplined as it has launched its new shows sequentially. 

Last night's X Factor included 30 seconds for the new Sunday animated comedy, Allen Gregory, which is now kind of a middling priority on the list, but look for FOX to push the show harder during the World Series, which starts tonight. 

To make the chart easier to read at a glance, there is now a "Cliffs Notes" version below that just lists the top four priorities for each network, making it easier to compare each network to the other.  For greater detail, the chart at the bottom lists all shows each network has promoted in the last week in case you are interested in finding a particular series.
   
ON-AIR PROMOTION PRIORITIES
TOP FOUR SHOWS EACH NETWORK
Over the Last Seven Days 
(# of promo-seconds)
Dates sampled: October 12-13 & 16-18, 2011

ABC
  Man Up!            160
  Revenge            120
  Once Upon a Time   120
  Pan Am             95
CBS
  Person of Interest 110
  Unforgettable      110
  Big Bang Theory    80
  Good Wife          70
NBC
  Grimm              130
  Up All Night       115
  Prime Suspect      90
  L&O: SVU           60
FOX
  MLB Postseason     100
  Bones              90
  Terra Nova         60
  Allen Gregory      55


ON-AIR PROMOTION PRIORITIES
Over the Last Seven Days 
ALL SHOWS PROMOTED
(# of promo-seconds)
Dates sampled: October 12-13 & 16-18, 2011

ABC
  Man Up!            160
  Revenge            120
  Once Upon a Time   120
  Pan Am             95
  Happy Endings      80
  Desperate Hswvs    65
  Castle             45
  Last Man Standing  40
  Suburgatory        30
  Grey's Anatomy     30
  Dancing...Stars    25
  Modern Family      25
  Extreme Mak. Home  20
  The Middle         20
  20/20              15
  The Chew           05
CBS
  Person of Interest 110
  Unforgettable      110
  Big Bang Theory    80
  Good Wife          70
  Amazing Race       60
  Survivor           60
  Rules Engagement   55
  CSI                45
  A Gifted Man       40
  The Mentalist      40
  Blue Bloods        40
  NCIS: LA           40
  Hawaii Five-O      40
  NCIS               35
  Criminal Minds     35
  CSI: Miami         30
  Late Show          30
  CSI: New York      20
  Two Half Men       20
  The Talk           20
  CBS News           20
  2 Broke Girls      20
  Mike & Molly       10
  NFL on CBS         10
  How I Met Mother   10
NBC
  Grimm              130
  Up All Night       115
  Prime Suspect      90
  L&O: SVU           60
  Whitney            45
  Rock Center        45
  The Office         40
  Parenthood         30
  Biggest Loser      30
  Harry's Law        30
  Leno/Fallon        30
  Sunday Night FB    25
  Chuck              15
  Community          10
FOX
  MLB Postseason     100
  Bones              90
  Terra Nova         60
  Allen Gregory      55
  The X Factor       50
  Kitchen Nightmares 50
  House              25
  Fringe             25
  Glee               20
  The Simpsons       15
  NFL on FOX         10


Programs Sampled
Tue Oct 18 2011: Last Man Standing, Man Up!, NCIS: Los Angeles, Parenthood, 8-9 pm portion of The X Factor