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Showing posts with label conan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conan. Show all posts

THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes August 27 - Be Afraid of the Boxoffice

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The full extent of theatre closings and other Hurricane Irene-related events isn't yet known, so projections may be high at this point.

That being said, this was never going to be a good weekend at the boxoffice:  in late August, the studios don't open their heavy hitters.  What audiences there are continue to flock to THE HELP, which should go over $100M by the end of this week, and has little real competition for its target audience over the next several weekends.  The question that won't be answered for a few months is whether the picture will be able to keep enough momentum going to propel itself into serious awards contention.


None of the new releases this weekend will make a lot of cash, so success or failure will have more to do with their costs.  On that scale, OUR IDIOT BROTHER, despite its relatively lowly gross, may not be as big a failure as it seems:  The Weinstein Company paid $6M for distribution rights plus a marketing commitment of $15M, and if the film can eke its way to the $24M Mitch Metcalf predicts, there might be enough for a small profit, particularly because it has a very cable-TV-friendly cast.  

DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, on the other hand, cost a reported $25M to produce, and FilmDistrict's marketing campaign probably wasn't smaller (and may have been larger) than Idiot's, putting it deeper in the hole.

As with most of the product produced by Luc Besson's company, COLOMBIANA's success will be largely based on its international results; its projected $28M US gross won't even bring it to breakeven.

All of the terrible 3D reboots from last weekend collapsed even further this time around:  don't look for further chapters in the CONAN THE BARBARIAN, SPY KIDS or FRIGHT NIGHT sagas.  ONE DAY didn't show any positive word of mouth either.

A few limited releases expanded this weekend and saw decent numbers.  SARAH'S KEY increased its theatre count by about 35% and held steady (meaning its per-theatre number slipped), while SENNA nearly doubled its count (still at only 34) and saw its total rise modestly, a similar result.

It's particularly important to note the effect of Irene on the new, very limited releases:  Vera Farmiga's excellent HIGHER GROUND was looking to gross $13K or so at each of its 3 theatres, but 2 of those theatres are in Manhattan, and if they're closed or deserted, that will obviously have a serious effect on the weekend total.  Similarly, the very good CIRCUMSTANCE, about rebelling teens in Iran, was headed to a good $8K or so in each of 6 theatres, but half of those are in the NY area. 

Labor Day is historically the one holiday weekend when Americans don't go to the movies, and consequently, 2 cheap horror movies lead the pack with APOLLO 18 and SHARK NIGHT 3D.  Also, Focus had a minor success last Labor Day with a Wednesday opening for THE AMERICAN, so they're going to try the same slot for THE DEBT, another international action film.  But without George Clooney in the lead--and with the probability of blah reviews for a movie that's been sitting on the shelf for a year--they may not duplicate that feat.


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THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 19-21 Weekend Winners and Weepers

6:16 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



There's not much to add about the weekend grosses that hasn't been said (see Mitch Metcalf's round-up report here), so let's take a look at who, apart from the studios themselves, did and didn't have a fun weekend:

WINNERS

Women of THE HELP:  Emma Stone isn't likely to get Oscar consideration for her performance, being the "White Actress in an African-American Story" (for a particularly egregious example of this criticism, see Patrick Goldstein's column today--as a rule of thumb, if you have to cite Armond White as back-up for your argument, you may want to rethink the debate).  But she's still the biggest name in a smash hit, and her supporting role in the sleeper CRAZY STUPID LOVE doesn't hurt either--assuming that the Spider-Man reboot doesn't go splat next summer, she'll have as much claim as anyone to the currently vacant title of America's Sweetheart.  Meanwhile, Viola Davis has a big decision to make:  campaign for the Oscar as Best Actress (which she might not win, but just being nominated could bring her to a new level in the industry) or Supporting (where she would have a serious chance at victory)?  Her decision will directly impact co-star Octavia Spencer, who has a much better chance of making the cut in Supporting with Davis in the leading category.  (There's also the chance Sissy Spacek could pull a Supporting nomination for her tasty little role as Bryce Dallas Howard's mother, but probably not--see "White Actress in an African-American Story," above.)  Not in the same gender pool but still a Winner is director Tate Taylor, who went from being utterly unknown to the man behind a giant success, without having to direct music videos or make a stop at Sundance.


Expanders:  Several limited releases widened their runs this weekend with generally good results.  SARAH'S KEY made $3900 at each of 201 theatres; THE GUARD did $5200 at 83; THE WHISTLEBLOWER, $3200 at 44; and SENNA, $12K at 14.  (THE FUTURE did less well, with $2K at 32.) 

Andy Serkis:  He probably won't get that Oscar nomination for his motion-capture performance as Caesar the chimp.  But when Fox starts its campaign on his behalf, no one will be laughing.

WEEPERS

Avi Lerner:  You may never have heard of him, but he's produced 243 movies for his Nu Image and Millenium studios, most of them proud--and often profitable--pieces of low-budget schlock.  (Righteous Kill?  The Nicolas Cage remake of The Wicker Man?  Those were his.)  He had a breakout hit last year with The Expendables, and this year CONAN THE BARBARIAN was supposed to provide him with his first real franchise, at an expensive-for-him cost of $70-90M.  Now the movie will have to hope for huge overperformance overseas just to break even (although no doubt Lerner's own investment is covered by pre-release guarantees, from distributors who may not be his biggest fans today).

Bob Weinstein:  His Dimension genre brand was supposed to fund brother Harvey's swings for the Oscar fences.  But this week's disastrous reboot of SPY KIDS follows the disastrous reboot of Scream earlier this year; coming soon is another "found footage" horror movie with Apollo 18, and then a second chapter in the Piranha series, which didn't do all that well ($25M) the first time.

Anne Hathaway:  Remember that currently-vacant position of America's Sweetheart?  It wasn't so long ago that the job seemed Hathaway's for the taking, but the past year or so hasn't gone so well.  It's not that Hathaway is giving bad performances, or even choosing terrible movies (Love and Other Drugs was a tonal mess, but still entertaining, and One Day is a respectable failure)--she just seems to be pushing too hard, nowhere more so than during her painful-to-watch Oscar gig.  The Dark Knight Rises isn't likely to do much more for her than previous installments did for Katie Holmes or Maggie Gyllenhaal (odds are that Tom Hardy will be the movie's Heath Ledger and she'll be Aaron Eckhart), but that's OK as long as her Catwoman doesn't actually hurt the picture.

Colin Farrell:  After paying some dues with his fine performances in little films like In Bruges, Crazy Heart and Ondine, Fright Night was supposed to be Farrell's first step back to commercial viability--but even with good reviews, it turned out no one cared.  Up next is the much more expensive remake of Total Recall, whose producers can't be feeling too comfortable now that this week's Conan reboot fell flat on its face.

Openers:  Nothing much was happening in the arthouses this weekend.  John Sayles' AMIGO could only muster $4K per theatre in 10 despite guest appearances from Sayles and the actors, and MOZART'S SISTER wasn't much better with $4700 in each of 7.  The one seeming exception is misleading:  Kevin Smith's RED STATE pulled in $26K in a single LA theatre as part of its Oscar-qualifying week (it seems the picture, despite its massive Sundance hoopla, is going to VOD next month and may never have a conventional theatrical release), but that number was boosted by a Q&A with the motormouth maestro at every show.


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THE BIJOU EARLY WEEKEND: FRIGHT BOXOFFICE

11:47 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,


According to Deadline, nothing much changed for the new boxoffice arrivals on Saturday.  THE HELP is still far in front for the weekend, with a beautiful $19-20M second weekend, and it's followed by RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, with its own impressive $16-17M third round. (Apes now looks like it will pull ahead of Captain America's $162M, and has a shot at beating Thor's $181M--while costing considerably less than either one of them.) 

The performance of the new group can't even be called mediocre.  SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD leads the pack, but with an opening weekend of around $11.5M, its total US gross may end up being less than the $33.4M opening weekend for Spy Kids 3 in 2003.  Wait, you think that's bad?  With an opening weekend of about $10.5M, the total US gross for CONAN THE BARBARIAN may not even reach the $39.6M total the Arnold Schwarzenegger original made... in 1982.  Similarly, with an opening weekend under $9M, FRIGHT NIGHT may not equal the $24.9M gross of its 1985 forebear. And all three of those had the benefit of inflated 3D ticket prices, on top of the regular inflation over the past few decades. Meanwhile, ONE DAY, in 1700 theatres, will struggle to get past a measly $5M for the weekend.  Make it stop...

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THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Footnotes - August 20

2:13 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


THE HELP will be the year's first "serious" movie to gross over $100M.  September is traditionally one of the softest months on the movie release calendar, and 2011 is no exception:  although there are a few promising arrivals like Steven Soderbergh's Contagion and the film adaptation of  Moneyball, the major openings (they hope) include vehicles for Sarah Jessica Parker and Taylor Lautner, and not much else.  Propelled by massive word of mouth, The Help could play strongly all through the month.  


Although the new Oscar rules for Best Picture nominations are nearly impenetrable (we don't even know how many nominees there will be, somewhere between 5-10), The Help is certainly a possible factor.  Much more likely are nominations in acting and the visual categories like Production Design.  Oscar credentials will be very important to the film, because without them, its subject matter will place it in tough sledding overseas; even without international interest, though, the movie's $25M cost (plus moderate marketing) makes it a hit already.

After that, and aside from the continued strength of RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (another movie benefiting from the weak August competition), the news is all bad.  Even though FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD were modestly budgeted, their marketing costs were still at least $25-30M domestically, and they'll be lucky if their US grosses even exceed those numbers.  Even worse is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, which cost upward of $70M plus marketing; the financiers will need huge international business just to break even (Lionsgate only controls US rights, for which they reportedly paid $25M plus marketing--they'll be looking at red ink too).    

Similarly, the horribly reviewed ONE DAY (I had my own problems with it, but really it's not that terrible), despite a production cost of only $15M and relatively minimal marketing, will have to hope for a big response in the UK (where the story is set) to have any chance at breaking even.  

It's not as though people were rushing out to limited releases, either.  Despite very strong reviews, neither AMIGO nor THE HEDGEHOG is likely to do more than $5-6K per theatre in either of their small runs, and GRIFF THE INVISIBLE won't even get to $2K.

Next weekend, more of the same, although there's a welcome absence of shoddy 3D, and at least one of the openings is actually good:  OUR IDIOT BROTHER, a fun ensemble comedy acquired by Harvey Weinstein at Sundance.  It's joined by the somewhat buzzy horror movie DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (produced by Guillermo del Toro), which was delayed when Disney got out of the Miramax business and is now with FilmDistrict (they had a notable horror success earlier this year with Insidious);  and Zoe Saldana in COLOMBIANA, from the Luc Besson international action-movie factory--you always know it's late summer when one of his movies shows up on the schedule. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for full weekend boxoffice and Mitch Metcalf's analysis, as well as international grosses as soon as they're available.

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FRIDAY AUGUST 19 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

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The Help sits at the top of the heap thanks to a terrific 19% drop in its second weekend and especially thanks to the very weak crop of openers that make up that heap.  Spy Kids 4, Conan the Barbarian and Fright Night all are opening below forecast and headed for a quick end on VOD and PPV.  No, 3D could not help any of these three entries.  Movie quality is always more important than any given format, but 3D is really floundering.  Overall, the weekend is flat versus the same weekend last year (ending the string of five up weekends in a row).  

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World should open below forecast ($3.9 million Friday for an estimated $12.3 million opening weekend, compared to a $14.5 million prediction).  Spy Kids 4 (in 4D no less! – the fourth dimension is the stale smell of mediocrity) is on track for $31 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide have been almost universally negative about the film (only 18% positive at RottenTomatoes). 


Conan the Barbarian is opening well below forecast ($3.7 million Friday for an expected $10.8 million this weekend versus a $16.5 million forecast).  Conan is headed for $29 million in North America.  Critics nationwide remain unconvinced about the need for this latest Conan movie (29% positive at RottenTomatoes).   

Fright Night is also opening below forecast ($2.65 million Friday for an expected $8 million this weekend versus a $14 million forecast).  Fright Night is headed for $24 million in North America.  Critics remain extremely positive for this horror movie (74% positive at RottenTomatoes), but that shouldn’t help much as this movie is destined to leave the scene quickly.  Read Mitch Salem's review here.      

One Day is opening near its rather tiny forecast ($1.86 million Friday for an expected $5.3 million this weekend versus a $6 million prediction).  One Day is on pace for $13 million in North America, with a critical drubbing (27% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).  Read Mitch Salem’s review here. 

In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.     

The Help continues its very solid run with a second weekend drop of only 19% and an increase in booked theaters this week (+156), while Final Destination 5 is having an expected 57% decline in its second weekend.  In its third weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should drop a very good 41% (even better than the 49% decline last week). 
  
August 19-21, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$20  ]    $21.0   $ 5.8     $133++
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$16  ]    $16.5   $ 4.6     $181+
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$14.5]    $12.3   $ 3.9     $ 31
Conan the Barbarian (LG) [$16.5]    $10.8   $ 3.7     $ 29
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$ 9  ]    $ 8.5   $ 2.2     $144
Fright Night (DW/Dis)    [$14  ]    $ 8.0   $ 2.6     $ 24
Final Destination 5 (WB) [$ 8.5]    $ 7.7   $ 2.4     $ 47
30 Minutes or Less (Sony)[$ 7  ]    $ 6.5   $ 2.0     $ 41
One Day (Focus)          [$ 6  ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.9     $ 13
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$ 4.5]    $ 5.0   $ 1.5     $ 80
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$ 4.5]    $ 4.7   $ 1.2     $376

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (results to come later):
-- Amigo (drama) at 11 theaters
-- Mozart’s Sister (foreign) at seven theaters
-- 5 Days of War (action drama) at two theaters
-- Flypaper (crime comedy) at two theaters
-- Programming the Nation? (documentary) at one theater


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total, flat versus the same calendar weekend last year when Vampires Suck, Lottery Ticket and Piranha 3D opened (wow, what an opening weekend from hell to match this one).  

 Top 12 Films: Weekend #33
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $110  (+10% vs 2007-10 average; +0% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $100
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $110  Vampires Suck $12 Lottery Ticket $11 Piranha $10    
2009  $112  Inglorious Basterds $38, Shorts $6, Post Grad $3
2008  $ 89  The House Bunny $14.5, Death Race $13
2007  $ 89  Mr Bean’s Holiday $10, War $10, Nanny Diaries $7.5


Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.


Next Weekend

Opening next week are Columbiana from Sony, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark from FilmDistrict, and Our Idiot Brother from Weinstein.  Those movies will be compared to Takers ($20.5 million opening weekend), Last Exorcism ($20.4 million) and Avatar: Special Edition ($4 million). 

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THE BIJOU EARLY RETURNS - UPDATED: BOXOFFICE THE BARBARIAN

7:27 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


UPDATE:

Deadline has a clearer picture of the day's boxoffice, and THE HELP is already having a superb weekend, leading the day with $5.7M, down a tiny 25% from last week.  If this number holds, its full weekend could reach $19-20M, which would give it a total of $70M+ and a clear path to $100M.  It joins Midnight In Paris as the first genuine Oscar candidate of the year.

RETURN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should come in 2d with another $15-16M that would bring its total above $130M.  After that, it gets ugly.

SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD surprisingly seems to have the lead among the new arrivals even before weekend matinees begin, but that slim lead might not hold, and in any case its $13M opening would be a fraction of the $33M earned by Spy Kids 3 the last time out. 

CONAN THE BARBARIAN roused little interest and may not even reach $12M for the weekend.  Since word of mouth won't be its friend, Lionsgate may be hard-pressed to make back its investment of $25M for US distribution and probably at least that much again for domestic marketing.

When the Dreamworks/Disney execs are asked about FRIGHT NIGHT and its anemic weekend of $8-9M, they'll change the conversation back to The Help.  The picture has little chance of making back its $35M budget plus marketing.

ONE DAY doesn't seem likely even to hit its low $6M projection, if the $1.8M Friday number holds.  Although the film was relatively low budget and had smaller marketing costs than the other openings, that's still barely a pulse.  This would make two flops in a row for Anne Hathaway, after last year's Love And Other Drugs (and let's not mention her Oscar hosting gig); luckily, the next picture she has coming out is a little indie called The Dark Knight Rises.



 

We've gotten used to elections being called the moment the polls close, and now weekend boxoffice analysis begins while tickets are still being sold.  The Hollywood Reporter has fast Friday numbers, and they show a tightly bunched pack, with THE HELP, RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD grossing $4-5.5M for the day.  This kind of result favors Apes (perhaps $15M for the weekend) and especially The Help ($18-19M) over Saturday and Sunday, because movies tend to be much less front-loaded after their opening weekends are over.  Spy Kids, too, may benefit from matinee business on Saturday, and get to $14-15M, while Conan ($13-14M) and Fright Night ($12-13M) are more likely to dip after today. 

ONE DAY is described as described as "starting off slow," and considering that the picture is in a half-hearted release of 1700 theatres and was expected only to make $6M or so for the weekend, one wonders just how soft that number is.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend as the numbers roll in, and look for Mitch Metcalf's analysis of the Friday grosses and weekend estimates.  (His predictions for the weekend are here.) 

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

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With Monday and Tuesday numbers in, here are some notes about how the new arrivals are holding up:

THE HELP continues its impressive run:  its $8.3M on Monday-Tuesday represents a very robust 32% of its weekend total.  All signs continue to point to a strong second weekend hold, especially since early reviews for its direct competitor ONE DAY are fairly disastrous, running at only 28% positive on RottenTomatoes.


FINAL DESTINATION 5, on the other hand, has weekday numbers of $3.9M, a measly 22% of its $18M weekend.  Not unusually for its genre, it should flame out quickly--which would potentially leave the way clear for Dreamworks/Disney's FRIGHT NIGHT, if anyone cared that that movie exists.  (The studio has scheduled "Sneak Peek" screenings of the latter film around 9PM Thursday night, in an effort to build word of mouth for those who can't be roused for a midnight show.)

30 MINUTES OR LESS is holding better in a percentage sense, with $3.7M equaling 28% of its weekend--but at those numbers, even a good hold won't mean much.  Its main competition this weekend is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, a movie which while only at 44% on RottenTomatoes, doesn't care much about its reviews.

In the same boat as 30 Minutes only more so (less so?) is GLEE 3D, whose $1.6M is 27% of its weekend as it heads to oblivion.  Supplanting it in the hearts of young viewers this weekend will be SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, billed as being in "4D" because it features odors as well as objects protruding from the screen.  The Weinstein Company seems to have little interest in showing this one to critics.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 13

1:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Let's take a look at just how remarkably THE HELP is performing so far.  

The most obvious points of comparison are the literary-sourced, female-skewing hits of the last 2 Augusts:  Julie & Julia in 2009, and last year's Eat Pray Love.  Julia had a $20M opening that led to a $94M domestic gross; Eat was a little more front-loaded, with a $23M start on its way to an $80M total.  The Help will beat Julia's opening and has a fair chance of surpassing both of them--but only Help came to Friday with $10M already in the bank thanks to its Wednesday opening, which doesn't seem to have dampened its weekend at all.  Also, while both Julia and Eat were escapist entertainments, with easily promotable subjects like gourmet food and fabulous foreign locations (along with stars like Meryl Streep, Amy Adams and Julia Roberts), The Help is a serious period piece about the Civil Rights era that features Emma Stone only as part of an ensemble of mostly African-American actresses.    (These factors, however, may be more serious hindrances overseas, where Help is more likely to echo Julia's $35M boxoffice than Eat's lofty $124M.)  Oh, and Help's budget is $25M, far below Julia's $40M and Eat's $60M.

DreamWorks seems to have captured the audience that Lionsgate was hoping to get last year with Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls:  a combination of African-American and arthouse crowds.  It's very hard to tell how this will play out over time, as the African-American audience is notoriously front-loaded (as has been the case with all of Perry's movies), while arthouses are exactly the opposite.  In any case, The Help faces little direct competition over the next several weeks:  just One Day next Friday (which Focus has been oddly shy about marketing), Sarah Jessica Parker's I Don't Know How She Does It on September 16, and then on a more general prestige-movie level, Moneyball the following week.

Along with the immediate financial return, the success of The Help should help give it credence in the march to year-end awards--although this gets complicated.  DreamWorks has a little movie called War Horse on its way from studio patriarch Steven Spielberg, and that film will almost certainly get the lion's share of the Best Picture push.  However, War Horse is less likely to be in contention for performance awards, so the way is clear for DreamWorks to push Help's cast for Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  The question, though, will be:  who in which category?  This is especially important for Viola Davis, who would probably be the early frontrunner for Supporting Actress right now, but arguably is as much the lead in Help as Emma Stone--however, if Davis chooses to campaign for Actress, she'll face competition like Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.  

Of course, these are high-class problems to have.

The rest of the Friday numbers are far less interesting.  RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a perfectly decent hold, but one that feels a little soft given its supposedly excellent word of mouth. The flop of 30 MINUTES OR LESS demonstrates that Jesse Eisenberg and Aziz Ansari aren't yet boxoffice draws, and that (especially combined with Your Highness earlier this year) Danny McBride is at best a cult figure who puts off as many people as he attracts.  FINAL DESTINATION 5 will probably top out at about $50M, but the big question is how it will do overseas, where the last chapter in the franchise almost doubled its US gross.  And GLEE 3D won't make any profit (unless it scores a hit on homevideo), but serves as an infomercial for the TV series mothership.

A quiet week for limited releases, with the documentary SENNA pulling in the only opening of any note, a very solid $30-35K in each of its 2 theatres.  

When they talk about the dog days of summer, next weekend is what they mean.  Along with the previously mentioned and curiously unpublicized ONE DAY (starring Anne Hathaway, based on a high-quality, best-selling novel--where's the buzz?), we get not one, not two, but three 3D reboots of pictures that weren't all that good the first time:  CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS.  A good weekend to go to the beach, or catch up on your DVR queue.




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COUNTING TO 10: The Emmy Nominations

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The Emmys, of all show-business awards, lend themselves least to surprise.  That's because they're the only group that nominate and award continuing series, meaning that the same high-quality shows repeat year after year.  (There was a stretch where it seemed like Frasier had started winning Best Comedy during the Truman Administration.)  You can't really argue with the group of nominees that result:  this year, all of Big Bang Theory, Glee, Modern Family, Parks & Recreation, The Office and 30 Rock are indisputably deserving nominees for Best Comedy--but there's not a single new show among them (although for Big Bang and Parks & Rec, this is their first time in the category).  However, even at the Emmys, it's possible to unearth a few odd decisions worth noting:

10.  HBO Rules.  Actually, this isn't a surprise--it's been happening now for years--but it still bears repeating:  HBO received 104 nominations today, more than double the closest broadcast network (CBS with 50, followed by NBC with 46, FOX with 42 and ABC with 40).  It's an astonishing level of domination, especially considering that the network only broadcasts about half a dozen hours of original programming per week, compared with up to 22 hours on the broadcast networks.

9.   Game of Thrones.  And yet... how can HBO's Game of Thrones earn 13 nominations and not a single one for Cinematography or Art Direction, when it's the most epic show on television?  (One reason is that its stablemate Boardwalk Empire got 3 of the Cinematography nominations for various episodes.)  Didn't the nominators watch the show?

8.   Modern Family.  In the kind of sweep that hasn't been seen much since those Frasier days, every adult member of the Modern Family cast was nominated for an Emmy:  Ty Burrell, Ed O'Neill., Eric Stonestreet, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Sofia Vergera and Julie Bowen.  Although the show has a fantastic ensemble cast, this had the effect of pushing out people like Nick Offerman of Parks & Recreation and everyone from Community.

7.  Treme.  Not to beat a dead horse about HBO deserving still more nominations, and no one expected the show to break into Best Drama with its anemic ratings, but still:  No cast member?  No writer?  No director?  Quality is supposed to be a factor here, folks.

6.   Network Comedy.  For the first time in quite a while, all the nominees for Best Comedy air on broadcast networks:  the flagship shows from CBS, ABC and FOX (Big Bang, Modern Family and Glee, respectively), and from what remains of NBC's glory, 3 of its Thursday night line-up:  The Office, Parks & Recreation and 30 Rock.  (We'll see next year if a post-Steve Carell Office can stay in the hunt.) 


5.   Miniseries Actors.  Despite their lack of popular success, superb performances by Idris Elba in Luther and Edgar Ramirez in Carlos were both nominated in the Miniseries Actor category (although neither of their shows made it to Best Movie/Miniseries).  Some recognition is better than none.

4.   Conan.  It's not a surprise that Conan O'Brien's TBS show was nominated for Best Variety/Music/Comedy Series and Jay Leno's Tonight Show wasn't.  What is a surprise is that Conan squeezed out perennial nominee David Letterman.

3.   Friday Night Lights.  Now that it's too late to make any difference (the series finale, having already aired on DirecTV, has its NBC run tomorrow), the Academy finally took note of Friday Night Lights, certainly one of the best dramas to air on network television in the past decade.  (Kyle Chandler and Connie Britten were both nominated again for their iconic performances, but no one in the spectacular supporting cast.)  In this case, better late than never doesn't quite cut it.

2.   The Kennedys.  One of the worst shows in the history of television--and I don't care what the viewer's politics are--somehow managed to get 10 nominations, including for Best Movie/Miniseries and all its major actors as well (except Katie Holmes and her waxworks Jackie Kennedy).  I have no explanation for this, but will just note that the Liberal Conspiracy That Controls Hollywood apparently didn't send in their ballots this year.  (Less surprising are the 21 nominations for Mildred Pierce, which was a show hardly anyone seemed to like, but in a very respectful way.)

1.   Louie.  The Academy was never going to nominate Louie C.K.'s brilliant, hilarious, scabrous, endlessly daring, sometimes lyrical, often offensive half-hour for Best Comedy.  (If you haven't seen it--and you should--think Seinfeld meets a John Cassavettes movie meets Taxi Driver.)  But bless those nominators, they gave its auteur nominations for Best Actor and Comedy Script.  So yes, sometimes the Emmys manage the biggest surprise of all:  they do the right thing.



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