Previously... On ALCATRAZ: San Francisco cop Rebecca Madsen (Sarah Jones), whose partner was recently killed, finds herself embroiled in a mysterious case in which an Alcatraz inmate from 40 years ago, apparently long dead, has turned up not having aged a day and committing new murders. Rebecca learns that all the Alcatraz prisoners who were supposedly transferred to San Quentin when the prison closed in 1963 actually vanished, and now they're popping up, on violent missions no one can understand. By the end of the hour, she's joined the top-secret Federal task force investigating the crimes headed by enigmatic Emerson Hauser (Sam Neill), himself a former Alcatraz guard. Also on the team are scientist Lucy (Parminder Nagra) and multi-tasking geek Alcatraz historian/comic book author Diego (Jorge Garcia). Also: Rebecca learns that her own grandfather was the back-from-the-dead Alcatraz prisoner who was involved in her partner's death.THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "Alcatraz"
Previously... On ALCATRAZ: San Francisco cop Rebecca Madsen (Sarah Jones), whose partner was recently killed, finds herself embroiled in a mysterious case in which an Alcatraz inmate from 40 years ago, apparently long dead, has turned up not having aged a day and committing new murders. Rebecca learns that all the Alcatraz prisoners who were supposedly transferred to San Quentin when the prison closed in 1963 actually vanished, and now they're popping up, on violent missions no one can understand. By the end of the hour, she's joined the top-secret Federal task force investigating the crimes headed by enigmatic Emerson Hauser (Sam Neill), himself a former Alcatraz guard. Also on the team are scientist Lucy (Parminder Nagra) and multi-tasking geek Alcatraz historian/comic book author Diego (Jorge Garcia). Also: Rebecca learns that her own grandfather was the back-from-the-dead Alcatraz prisoner who was involved in her partner's death.THE SKED PREMIERE REVIEW: "The Finder"
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "We Bought A Zoo"
THE BIJOU: "We Bought" A Preview
THE SKED: "X" Marks The Renewal
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "In Time"
THE SKED: "Grimm" Is Right
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "The Big Year"
The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS October 10 -- Odd Night
As expected, it was an odd night on the broadcast networks. FOX's Monday line-up was delayed 55 minutes by a very long (11 innings, 4 hours 25 minutes) ALCS Game 2 that started around 4 pm ET. The primetime portion of the game (8:00-8:55) did a solid 3.4 preliminary 18-49 rating, but it didn't help FOX's dramas. Terra Nova, which started at 8:55, logged a 2.6 rating (down from a 3.1 the first two weeks). House (which premiered last week with a healthy 3.9 rating) crashed to a 2.3 rating at 9:55. Add in all the upset FOX affiliates whose late local news had to face the ABC, CBS and NBC local newscasts, and the night was pretty much a disaster.
ABC averaged a 2.9 for the night, the same as last week. Dancing with the Stars has a fast national rating of 3.1 (same as last week) and Castle has a 2.4 (down 0.1 from last week). But when the official nationals come in around lunchtime, ABC should go down a few tenths since ABC's station in Detroit carried the Bears-Lions football game locally in primetime -- all of those Detroit rating points will be replaced by the tiny ratings Dancing received at 2 am in the Motor City.
CBS won the night with a 3.9, but that's down from a 4.3 last week. By program: How I Met Your Mother (down 0.6), 2 Broke Girls (down 0.3), Two and a Half Men (down 0.4), Mike & Molly (down 0.3), and Hawaii Five-O (down 0.6). Other broadcasters weren't up so CBS most likely lost some viewers to football on ESPN and baseball on FOX/TBS.
NBC took a big hit (falling from a dreadful 1.6 last night to a horrendous 1.2 on the night this week). The Sing-Off deflated from a 1.8 last week to a 1.4 last night, and the 10 pm time period absolutely cratered. Last week, the final episode of The Playboy Club turned in a 1.2, while this week's Prime Suspect repeat went all the way down to a 0.7 rating. The time period will be stone cold for Brian Williams and Rock Center.
On The CW, Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie each dropped to 0.6.
A night to forget.
THE SKED: FOX Delays - Baseball Hits "Terra Nova," Wait For "Girl"
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "What's Your Number?"
THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "New Girl"
THE SKED: Week 1 + 1 - Network Scorecard
FOX: It was all going so well for FOX. NEW GIRL launched as strongly as the network could possibly have wished. X-FACTOR may not be a blockbuster, but it looks like it'll provide 2 solid nights of ratings each week and win the marquee night of Thursdays. Despite their age, Sunday's animation anchors are holding up like champions. Even the FRINGE nerds (I'm one of them) showed up for the series premiere. Sure, GLEE seems to have passed its prime, but at least for now it's performing fine. And then came TERRA NOVA, after one airing already on the bubble between disappointment and failure, and with a giant price-tag attached. Still, one bad hour can't undo all the rest of the week: B-plus.THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "Terra Nova"
THE SKED: Monday Ratings - Network Scorecard
PATHWAY TO PROFITABILITY -- The Studio View
At ShowBuzzDaily we look at the movie year in three parts: the soft Winter/Spring year-part from January through April, the strong Summer season from May-August, and the slow-starting but soon sizzling Fall/ Holiday season from September through December. With the Summer season over, it is a good time to take stock of the year so far.
The chart below summarizes the distribution of all wide-releases films in 2011 (between January and August) according to Worldwide box office revenue. As we saw last week, the film business is heavily weighted toward strikeouts with a few homeruns and triples. The ten films in the top two categories in the table are guaranteed huge profits, while the 40 films in the bottom two categories are sure to burn through a lot of cash.
Distribution of 2011 Films (through Sep 4)
# (average - millions $) Ovrseas
Films Worldwide Domestic Overseas Multiple
Mega-hit ($750M+) 3 $1157 $325 $833 2.6
($400M-$749M) 7 $536 $183 $352 1.9
($200M-$399M) 11 $263 $129 $134 1.0
($100M-$199M) 15 $148 $83 $64 0.8
($75M-$99M) 15 $88 $41 $48 1.2
($35M-$74M) 18 $50 $38 $12 0.3
Bomb ($0-$34M) 22 $21 $17 $4 0.2
A note on reading the chart above. A total of 15 films this year have grossed between $75 and $99 million worldwide this year. The average film in this group has averaged $88 million worldwide, with $41 million domestic and $48 million overseas. (The numbers do not always add up because of rounding error.) The 1.2 Overseas Multiple indicates films in this category do slightly better outside North America than in it. In contrast, the 18 films in the $35-74 million group do about the same as $75-99 million films domestically but have virtually no overseas revenue (a 0.2 Overseas Multiple).
Of course, the chart above looks at Hollywood as a whole, and does not take into account the fierce competition between the six major studios. The chart below does just that by counting the number of films in each worldwide revenue category for each studio's slate so far in 2011. Read on to see how each studio stacks up.
Distribution of 2011 Films by Studio
DIS FOX PAR SON UNI WB
Mega-hit ($750M+) 1 0 1 0 0 1
($400M-$749M) 1 1 2 1 1 1
($200M-$399M) 0 2 3 4 1 1
($100M-$199M) 3 2 1 1 3 3
($75M-$99M) 0 1 1 2 2 5
($35M-$74M) 1 1 0 4 4 2
Bomb ($0-$34M) 4 2 0 2 1 0
DISNEY -- The Mouse House has become a punching bag and a target for industry gossip of late. At least one of the six majors has to be under-performing, struggling operation. Kind of like how NBC is treated in the press, with "perennially fourth-place" always preceding the network's name. As you can see, Disney has the highest number of films in the bottom ("Bomb") category. Although it has three films in the $100s of millions worldwide, these films are just barely profitable or not profitable at all if the production budgets approach $100 million. Most important, although Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides made it into the top category and Cars 2 landed in the strong second category, there are NO Disney titles in the $200-399 million range, a category that separates winners from losers during the year.
FOX -- 20th Century Fox had a fairly stable year so far, with an even distribution of films. No mega-hits, but three films in the next two categories and limited number (three) in the bottom two categories.
PARAMOUNT -- The Melrose studio has the best distribution of the six majors so far this year, thanks to some strong output from DreamWorks. A mega-hit in the latest Transformers, as well as Kung Fu Panda and Thor in the second category. What's most interesting for Paramount this year is the utter lack of bombs in the bottom two categories. Zero. But we still have a third of the year to go for things to even out. But still, regardless of where the films came from or what the complicated co-financing deals were, this is a pretty good performance.
SONY -- The Culver City studio has released the most films so far this year (14 versus a low of 8 for Paramount), and it has the most sitting in the bottom two categories. If there is a silver lining, more Sony clunkers broke $35 million than fell below that level, but that's a pretty lame compliment. Although Sony managed to place four films in the $200-399 million tier, it only has one (The Smurfs) in the upper two categories (and it just barely makes it). A disappointing but not disastrous showing.
UNIVERSAL -- Then there's Universal. Not suffering quite the amount of abuse as Disney in the trades and gossip mill, its 2011 slate is heavily weighted toward the bottom end of the chart. Only two Universal films (Fast Five and Bridesmaids) occupy the top THREE categories. The rest of the slate is packed in the lower- to lower-middle categories. With Comcast pulling the plug on many expensive projects, it will be interesting to see if a singles or doubles approach can really change its profile. One doesn't want to spend money wildly on every project, but sometimes an expensive swing-for-the fences project or two will actually result in more homeruns to finance the inevitable mistakes.
WARNER BROTHERS -- Other than the final Harry Potter (and that is one BIG exception to make, I grant you), a rather quiet year so far for Warners. Avoiding bombs very well, most of the slate, however, lands in that region where it is tough to make a profit. But, of yeah, it had Harry Potter, and that covers up a lot of mediocrity.
Of course, a movie's production budget has an incredible impact on profitability. After all, profits (such as the are counted by creative Hollywood accounting rules) are based on a film by film basis and not arbitrary category averages. For example, two films in the third category ($200-399 million worldwide) are near each other on the worldwide revenue ranking but worlds apart in terms of profit. Bridesmaids is sitting at $281 million worldwide ($168 million domestic and $113 overseas), while Captain America: The First Avenger is at $339 million worldwide ($175 million domestic and $165 overseas). The two films have similar domestic grosses but the international advantage clearly goes to Captain America. However, which film is more profitable? Bridesmaids was reportedly made for under $50 million, while Captain America was produced for at least $150 million and probably closer to $200 million. Both films probably had between $75 and $100 million in worldwide marketing costs. Nonetheless, Bridesmaids has the clear profit advantage, given its comedy genre and lack of special effects.
We will look closer at film by film profitability in coming weeks (using close but not precise estimates of production budgets), but think of our studio scorecard as a 30,000 foot overview of the Hollywood landscape.
THE SKED'S BUSTED PILOT THEATRE: "Metro"
THE SKED'S BUSTED PILOT THEATRE: "Council of Dads"
Peter Tolan, who with Denis Leary created Rescue Me, knows something about the comedy that emerges when when men try to assert their masculinity in the most idiotic ways. So you can understand why FOX developed COUNCIL OF DADS, which was meant to bring that kind of tone to a family sitcom. Alas, what ended up being produced was like some kind of strange spawn of Rescue Me, a Disney movie and one of those pictures like The Protector where an assassin has to bumblingly take care of children.
The premise of Council was at least a new spin on the family genre. Catherine (Diane Farr) would have been raising her two kids as a single mom after the death of her husband Michael, but Michael made a back-up plan: he designated 4 of his friends as a collective of paternity, each supposedly bringing a particular strength to the council. Marty (Kyle Bornheimer), Michael's oldest friend, is the "fun" dad; trainer Randy (Rick Gomez) the jock; therapist Jerry (Patrick Breen) the one the kids can talk to about their feelings; and business partner Bill (Richard T. Jones) can help with schoolwork. (They're like a less tuneful seven dwarves.) Meanwhile, Michael's father Buck (Ken Howard) hovers jealously over the group and intrudes at will.
Naturally, all of the "dads" are morons who constantly compete over who will be the dominant one of the group, but whether it was the inability to make sex jokes and use dirty words that hindered Tolan in thix context, or if he was just off his game, none of it is funny. The pilot has Randy and Marty fighting about who can make the best model car for Michael's son to use in a contest, with Buck ridiculing them both, and the big joke is a draw between the guys taking off their shirts to reveal their unathletic bodies and wrestle each other, and Marty dripping blood everywhere from his cut finger. The actors don't distinguish themselves, although it's always nice to see Farr (who recurred as a Rescue Me firefighter for a season). The Russo brothers, who are behind the camera for some of the best Community episodes, keep the action going, but can't contribute much else.
Peter Tolan is a real talent, and no doubt after Rescue Me goes to its rest in another couple of episodes, he'll go on to other great work. Council of Dads suggests that the all-ages-admitted sitcom isn't the genre where he'll do it.





