Movie Box Review

John Carter joins the worldwide box office chart, ranked at #13 out of 44 wide-release films over the past three months.  We are currently estimating John Carter could total $75 million in North America, but the overseas total to date is already $70 million.  If the overseas total ends up around $125 million, the film could end up with a worldwide total just behind Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, moving up to a #6 or #7 ranking.  Click "read more" to see the updated chart.

The other films opening this weekend, Silent House and A Thousand Words, are dead last in the worldwide ranking, each with little chance of moving their overseas total above the current level of zero.

The Lorax has only grossed $2 million total to date overseas, in what appears to be an extremely slow rollout beyond North America. 

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax joins the worldwide box office chart this week, already ranked #7 out of 45 films released the last three months, but that ranking is based on a current zero tally of overseas receipts.   Based on recent animated films, we would expect The Lorax to gross somewhat more than its domestic total overseas.  Despicable Me grossed $543 million worldwide ($251 million domestic and $292 million overseas).  How to Train Your Dragon grossed $495 million worldwide ($218 million domestic and $277 million overseas).  Another Dr Seuss animated adaptation, Horton Hears a Who!, was more of a minor hit overall but resonated worldwide: $297 million total ($154 million domestic and $143 million overseas).  If Lorax hits our estimated domestic final of $227 million, we would give it an estimated $250 million overseas for a worldwide total just short of $480 million and just behind Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (at #3 among recent releases).

Project X finds itself in the middle of the pack on the worldwide list, at #29.  We estimate a $30 million overseas gross when all is said and done, which would place it at #20, just behind We Bought a Zoo worldwide.  

Click "read more" for the updated chart.

Four new films opened this weekend in North America and have joined our worldwide box office tracking chart.  Three of the four are toward the bottom of the chart and are destined to stay there.  The other film, Act of Valor, is currently in the middle of the pack but should rise as moderate overseas box office comes in.  We are currently projecting Act of Valor to hit $68 million in domestic box office, and the current zero overseas tally should go to about $40 million given the track record of movies about the U.S. military.  That would put the film ranked around 16th or 17th among the films released in the last three months.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.) 

In contrast, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds, Wanderlust and Gone will not receive much -- if any -- box office overseas.  Tyler Perry's films generally receive no international distribution at all, while bombs like Wanderlust and Gone do not visit foreign theaters in almost all territories. 

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island continues to do brisk business overseas, now up to $159 million outside North America to go along with the projected $118 million domestic final.  The film has an outside shot of reaching $300 million worldwide.  The Vow and Safe House remain in the low-$30 million range overseas.

Three films join the worldwide box office tracking chart this weekend.  With a profile similar to Tintin's (very good overseas appeal but limited domestic interest), The Secret World of Arrietty is just outside of the top 10 movies over the last three months.  The anime import from Japan has grossed $126 million overseas, but we are projecting it maxes out at $25 million in North America.  This Means War has grossed $11 million overseas to date, and maybe it gets to $45 million or so internationally to go along with the $49 million final domestic tally we are projecting.  Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance has no overseas revenue yet.  It might reach $85 million overseas (the first Ghost Rider took in $113 million overseas) to go along with our projected $58 million domestic final.

The Vow and Safe House both roughly doubled their overseas gross, to $23 million and $20 million, respectively.  But Journey 2 remains the international player from last weekend's crop, thanks to its overseas head start.  The sequel is now up to $128 million overseas, on its way to matching the $140 million overseas total for Journey to the Center of the Earth in July 2008. 

And how about The Descendants, now sitting at $156 million projected worldwide. Not bad for a lower-budget, serious movie without special effects, 3D, explosions or comic book superheroes.

Four new movies join the worldwide box office chart this weekend, with Journey 2: The Mysterious Island being the early standout.  Released overseas a week before this weekend's North American opening, Journey 2 already has an overseas total of $75 million to date, nearly matching our total domestic projection of $79 million.  The first in the series, Journey to the Center of the Earth (released July 11, 2008 also by Warner Brothers), made it to just under $242 million worldwide (about $102 million domestic and $140 million overseas).  Journey 2 seems destined for a lower domestic total but a similar international haul.  Click "read more" to see the updated weekly chart.

The Vow and Safe House both have a relatively slow start overseas, each with $10 million to date.  Although both films are headed for similar domestic final grosses, we'll give the slight edge to The Vow overseas.  Recent successful romantic comedies have generally matched their domestic gross overseas although The Notebook was an exception (Valentine's Day: $110 million/ $106 million domestic/ overseas, Just Go With It: $103 million/ $112 million, He's Just Not That Into You: $94 million/ $85 million,  The Notebook: $81 million/ $35 million).  We'll give The Vow an overseas target of $110 million, for a final worldwide target of $226 million. 

In contrast, recent successful Denzel Washington action films domestically have somewhat under-performed overseas with the notable exception of American Gangster (The Book of Eli: $95 million/ $62 million, Training Day: $77 million/ $28 million, Man on Fire: $78 million/ $52 million, American Gangster: $130 million/ $136 million).  We'll give Safe House an overseas target of $80 million, for a final worldwide target of $194 million.

The re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace 3D has grossed $21 million overseas to date. 

The latest worldwide box office rankings are charted below.  Among the new releases this weekend, Chronicle sits in the middle of the list with $78 million worldwide to date ($65 million estimated final domestic and an early total to date overseas of $13 million).  The movie will probably work its way to just over $100 million worldwide.  The next level down is The Woman in Black ($58 million estimated final domestic and no overseas receipts yet).  The Daniel Radcliffe horror film will probably finish just under $100 million worldwide.  And finally toward the bottom of the list is Big Miracle ($30 million estimated final domestic gross with no overseas money to date and probably little prospect for growing that number).

Updated Worldwide Box Office figures below.  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo now closing in on $200 million worldwide. 

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 moves past the $700 million worldwide mark, with $421 million overseas to date.  Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol  edges past $550 million worldwide with $337 million overseas. 

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is now a $450 million worldwide picture, while Adventures of Tintin has an outside shot of hitting $400 million worldwide, despite its puny $82 million domestic gross.  

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol has moved up to a $320 million overseas tally, bringing the worldwide total to $554 million.  The fourth M:I is now the worldwide leader of the franchise.  Mission: Impossible 2 grossed $546.4 million ($215.4 million domestic and $331.0 million overseas), Mission: Impossible grossed $457.7 million ($181.0 million domestic and $276.7 million overseas) and Mission: Impossible 3 grossed $397.8 million ($134.0 million domestic and $263.8 million overseas).

Adventures of Tintin has now grossed almost $280 million overseas.  Although Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows has a lower overseas total, its domestic superior domestic total is keeping it ahead of Tintin in the worldwide race. 

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows jumped to over $175 million overseas and has a shot at $400 million worldwide.  Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol moved well past $500 million worldwide. 

Complete updated chart after the jump.

 

Updated international figures follow.  Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol is surging, as Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and especially Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is just getting going.

Click "read more" for the complete chart.

International box office continues to bail out American movies released late this year.  While Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 can legitimately be called a hit domestically and abroad, Adventures of Tintin and Real Steel are both major hits only because of business outside North America. And Puss in Boots would have been a slight disappointment given its genre were it not for a very healthy international take.   

More recently, the oddly animated Arthur Christmas is being saved from complete dud status by an overseas total that is really starting to kick in.  Hugo, in contrast, has not seen many international dollars to bulk up its rather puny worldwide total. 

Because of the Christmas holiday, some of these overseas totals might be lagging.  This chart will be updated as necessary. 

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol opened with a narrow 425-theater preview domestically this weekend, but the fourth M:I opened in over two-thirds of the international markets this weekend and already has taken in $68 million overseas.  The other domestic openers this weekend had fairly limited international bookings the first weekend.  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows posted $14 million overseas this weekend (mostly in the UK), an identical number to the overseas opening of Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked.

Adventures of Tintin has started to max out its overseas potential.  Now it is up to the North America release to push the film to $400 million worldwide.

Overseas box office show big gains for Puss in Boots and Real Steel, now at $142 million and $186 million overseas to date, respectively.  Both films are solidly in the top five films worldwide, approaching $300 million worldwide each.

New Year's Eve has $13 million overseas to date, but it only stands at $44 million worldwide when the estimated domestic total is factored in, well behind the $216 million worldwide total for Valentine's Day.  The other opener this weekend, The Sitter, has no overseas receipts yet and should not be much of a factor internationally at any point.

Click "read more" to see the latest international box office chart for recent releases.  Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 is now over $600 million projected worldwide, while The Adventures of Tintin is closing in on $400 million, assuming it doesn't tank stateside.

With the downward adjustment in domestic box office and very limited overseas revenues, The Muppets movie is now slightly below the worldwide projected figure for Arthur Christmas. 

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 is now closing in on $275 million overseas to date (close to the expected domestic final tally), as it approaches $600 million worldwide.  One level down, The Adventures of Tintin has broken $200 million overseas and could be a $400 million worldwide picture if it does at least decently here when it opens at Christmas. 

This week's openers are off to a slow release pattern overseas.  The Muppets looks like a $122 million domestic total and overseas has generated only $2 million so far.  In contrast, Arthur Christmas (playing in more markets) has grossed $22 million overseas but is looking like a more anemic $52 million domestically.  Hugo should play to a similar domestic haul ($49 million), although its overseas potential is difficult to assess as it has not started its international run.

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 debuts on the international box office chart with a very solid $400+ million worldwide mark.  The latest Twilight has an overseas total to date of $144 million already with an expected domestic final of $292 million.

Adventures of Tintin is now up to almost $190 million overseas, while Real Steel is starting to top out overseas at around $160 million.  In contrast, Puss in Boots is still stuck at a relatively sluggish $53 million overseas. 

Adventures of Tintin continues to roll around the world and is up to $159 million overseas, already what we expect it to do domestically when it opens here in December.  Real Steel is now up to almost $150 million overseas, as is Johnny English Reborn. 

Puss in Boots has jumped up to $48 million overseas and probably has another $50 million outside North America to go.

Of the three openers in the United States this weekend, only Immortals looks like it will be a player on the international scene, racking up close to $40 million in its first weekend of overseas release. 

Surging to the top of the worldwide box office chart, The Adventures of Tintin from Steven Speilberg has racked up $125 million overseas in two weeks.  The animated film (with the unorthodox but highly successful pattern of opening overseas well before it does in North America) has a shot at well over $300 million worldwide if it hits its preliminary domestic total of $160 million.  Click "read more" to see the updated worldwide chart.

Tintin is set to be released in the United States on December 21 by Paramount.  Directed by Spielberg and produced by Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy and Peter Jackson, the movie is based on the comic books by Belgian artist Herge.  Universal exited the project in 2008, leaving Paramount and Sony the task of counting the money.
  
Real Steel has also pushed past $125 million overseas, well beyond its estimated domestic final of $88 million, giving it $215 million worldwide.  Puss in Boots now sports an updated estimated domestic final of $170 million, and it is just getting started overseas with $39 million to date.  In a few weeks it could be looking at a worldwide total of $325 million.

Real Steel is knocking on the $200 million worldwide door, as the overseas gross to date jumped above $100 million (outweighing a downgrade in our domestic total estimate).  Picking up steam, Paranormal Activity 3 doubled its overseas tally to $54 million, and it is just getting going.  (See the updated chart after the jump.)

Making more overseas than either of these films is Johnny English Reborn.  But thankfully, America has utterly rejected the latest Rowan Atkinson comedy ($8 million estimated domestic final versus $124 million overseas to date).  Doesn't the world understand that mediocre filmed entertainment flows in one direction around the globe?  Despite globalism and the blurring of national boundaries, this country draws the line at soccer and Rowan Atkinson. 

Look for a big jump next week in the overseas total for Puss in Boots as it rolls out around the world.