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Showing posts with label 90210. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 90210. Show all posts

THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD





FOX's 4-sitcom Tuesday excited no one.

FOXI HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER and BREAKING IN made unimpressive returns to the schedule.  Daughter could claim a decent retention of its RAISING HOPE lead-in, and it also won the head-to-head sitcom battle at 8:30PM--but really there's nothing good about a 1.6 premiere.  Breaking In had less excuse, falling to an ugly 1.7 from NEW GIRL's strong 3.0 lead-in, which was the highest number on any network last night. And even though Raising Hope handled its shift to 8PM well, it aired against an ABC repeat last night, so future results may not be as strong.


ABC: The network actually aired some good programming last night, to little avail.  COUGAR TOWN had a funny half-hour directed by Courtney Cox, and for Bill Lawrence fans, it had the additional pleasure of a guest appearance by Scrubs' Sarah Chalke.  After that, THE RIVER finally delved into what's supposed to be the show's central mystery--just what happened to Dr. Emmett Cole--which allowed Bruce Greenwood to appear in more than snippets, in a creepy hour directed by Michelle McLaren.  For their troubles, the show got matching lousy 1.5 ratings, 4th place for their slots.  (Cougar Town at least had the excuse that it rose from its repeat LAST MAN STANDING lead-in, but as its cast members continue to flock to 2d position pilot deals, that doesn't matter much.)  The evening ended with a terrible 0.9 for a BODY OF PROOF repeat that was beaten by primary election coverage on NBC.

NBCTHE BIGGEST LOSER fell to a season and possibly a series low, dipping below a 2 for the first time.  At 10PM, a DECISION 2012 special scored a not-embarrassing-for-a-news-special 1.0.

CBS:  All repeats, which were still enough to win all but the 9-9:30PM half-hour of the night.

CW90210 returned after a month off with a fine (CW level) 0.7, but RINGER dipped to a 0.5 after that.

Tonight's only new arrival is REVENGE FOR REAL, which ABC will use to sucker in Revenge fans rather than air repeats.  The network is giving it a bit of a lead-in with a new HAPPY ENDINGS (although that show's rating will be lowered by having a repeat MODERN FAMILY as its own lead-in).  NBC airs new sitcoms at 8-9PM, and apart from that, only the unscripted shows on all the networks are original.


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THE SKED: CW's Finale Schedule






CW has announced the line-up for its 2011/12 regular season finales, as well as a late-season premiere:

First to exit will be ONE TREE HILL, which winds up its 9 seasons on April 4 with a 2-hour special.


On April 17, RINGER will be done for the season (and maybe longer).  Starting April 24, its timeslot will be filled by the new LA COMPLEX, which sounds like the return of the return of Melrose Place:  a group of Hollywood wannabes all live in the same apartment building, and no doubt suds fly.

The remainder of the network's shows end in mid- to late-May.

May 10:  THE VAMPIRE DIARIES and THE SECRET CIRCLE

May 14:  GOSSIP GIRL and HART OF DIXIE

May 15:  90210

May 18:  NIKITA and SUPERNATURAL

May 29:  LA COMPLEX

May 30:  AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD




Not all shows premiere like Smash.

ABC:  In recent years, viewers have flocked to horror series from True Blood to The Walking Dead to The Vampire Diaries, and at the multiplex, "found footage" thrillers like Paranormal Activity, The Devil Inside and Chronicle sell tickets like crazy, so... So this is why the entertainment business drives businesspeople crazy, because comparatively speaking, no one showed up for THE RIVER, ABC's stab at the genre, which had a blah 2.4 opening, with a steadily decreasing track that bodes very badly for next week.  It's a short-term problem for the network, since only 7 episodes were ordered, but it's not going to make Tuesdays in the rest of February and March pleasant for ABC.  The 8PM LAST MAN STANDING was just 0.2 above its season low, and a special 8:30PM episode didn't do much better.


NBC:  Any hope for a halo effect after the best 2 days of the network's season went out the window, as THE BIGGEST LOSER was up only 0.1 from recent weeks, and then PARENTHOOD, facing a stronger competitor on ABC than the usual Body of Proof, slumped to a season low 1.6.  Parenthood's ratings in 2012 have been terrible, and with only a few more episodes left in its season order, its producers have to be glad they're on the one network where those numbers aren't necessarily a death sentence.

CBS:  The 200th episode of NCIS easily won its hour, but with The River perhaps siphoning off some male viewers, NCIS LA and UNFORGETTABLE were both only 0.1 above their season lows.

FOX:  GLEE was way down from last week's Michael Jackson episode (apparently Ricky Martin doesn't have quite the same name value).  NEW GIRL won its timeslot, but shows no signs of recapturing the highs of its fall ratings, and both it and RAISING HOPE were 0.2 above their season lows.

CW90210 held its own with a 0.7, but RINGER's 0.5 was down 0.1 from last week's midseason premiere.

Tonight the only news is on the news side:  CBS fills in at 8PM (pending the return of Survivor) with a special PERSON TO PERSON interview show hosted by Charlie Rose and Lara Logan (the title is from an Edward R. Murrow series that ran 1953-1961, a reference that should certainly pull in the young crowd).  At 9PM, ROCK CENTER moves to its new timeslot, where it can look forward to being decimated by a new MODERN FAMILY on ABC.  At 10PM, CSI will probably be down from Marg Helgenberger's exit episode, while REVENGE moves toward the endgame of the first arc of its season's storyline.



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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD



Some things are eternal, and Michael Jackson appears to be one of them.

FOX:  GLEE's Michael Jackson episode propelled the show to a 3.6, its best rating in months.  The strong lead-in didn't help the network's sit-coms much, though:  NEW GIRL was only up 0.1 for the night, and RAISING HOPE fell to match its season low.


CW:  RINGER, returning from a hiatus that seemed almost as long as Mad Men's, didn't find absence making audience hearts grow much fonder, with the same 0.6 it had on November 29, which was down slightly from its 90210 lead-in.

NBC:  BIGGEST LOSER was even with last week, but that wasn't good news, as it was close to a season low.  Repeats of the serialized PARENTHOOD are always ugly, and last night's 0.7 was no exception.

ABC:  LAST MAN STANDING and BODY OF PROOF were at their usual unimpressive repeat levels, and the season finale of CELEBRITY WIFE SWAP couldn't leave town fast enough (The River takes its slot next week), setting a season low.

CBS:  All repeats, with 3d place finishes for both NCIS shows, but a win for UNFORGETTABLE in the battle of the reruns at 10PM.

Tonight is the last night before February sweeps, so ABC is all repeats, while the only new show on CBS is this year's installment of Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials, while NBC will have fresh episodes of its woeful Whitney/Chelsea duo.  FOX will hope to take advantage of the reduced competition with bigger numbers for American Idol, before its declining ratings becomes even more of a story than they already are.  

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD


Not much good news for anyone--including the night's winner.

FOX:  The network ran the table 8-10PM, but with ugly numbers:  GLEE and NEW GIRL both set season lows, and RAISING HOPE was just 0.1 above its low.  For the first time in quite a while, Glee was below a 3 rating.



ABC:  LAST MAN STANDING was up from last week, although its 2.6 was still just 0.2 above that season low.  MAN UP!, on its way out, hit a new low.  Reruns of THE MIDDLE and SUBURGATORY averaged a 1.2, even lower than Middle had done last week.  BODY OF PROOF also set a new low, with an awful 1.5 for a new episode.

NBC:  Hardly anyone wanted to celebrate Christmas with Michael Buble, as his special managed only a 1.5.  After that, BIGGEST LOSER perked up to a 2.2, which was down from last week but still above other recent episodes.

CBS:  An all rerun night, with NCIS way down from last week's repeat (2.1 vs 2.9).  Notably, though, the repeat UNFORGETTABLE managed to beat the new Body of Proof on ABC.

CW90210, unlike Gossip Girl, is still holding its own in CW terms with a 0.8.  RINGER was a repeat.  

Tonight will be the first with regular schedules, no specials or repeats, in a while.  The number to watch will be the 2d episode of FOX's I Hate My Teenage Daughter, this time airing against new episodes on the other networks.

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD



America knows what it wants this holiday season:  a flying middle-aged reindeer and lots of lingerie models!

CBSRUDOLPH THE RED-NOSED REINDEER first aired (on NBC) in 1964, and 47 years later, it's still going strong.  Its 4 rating easily won the 8PM time period.  (Here's a fun fact about Rudolph, courtesy of Wikipedia:  the original 1964 version of the show didn't resolve the fate of the Island of Misfit Toys, which caused such a viewer ruckus that the rescue of the Misfits was added the following year.)  An NCIS repeat was a solid 2d at 9PM, and then the VICTORIA'S SECRET FASHION SHOW beat the other networks senseless with a spectacular 4.6 (so much for no one watching network TV at 10PM anymore), more than doubling its closest competition.  Safe to say the Secret ladies will be back in primetime sooner rather than later.


FOX:  All things considered, not a bad night.  Even with the strong family competition from Rudolph, GLEE managed its highest post-baseball number with a 3.2.  NEW GIRL is still substantially below where it had been in early October, but at 3.6 it was a steady winner of its half-hour, and RAISING HOPE was up from the last couple of weeks.

NBC:  Both BIGGEST LOSER and PARENTHOOD tied season highs, and while those are still low numbers (2.4 and 2.2, respectively), when you're NBC, you don't poke at good news.

ABC:  The 8PM hour was badly dented by Rudolph on CBS, with both LAST MAN STANDING and MAN UP! hitting series lows at 2.4 and 1.7.  Without a Dancing results show at 9PM, the network threw an hour-long repeat of THE MIDDLE at 9PM and couldn't manage better than a 1.4.  With that lead-in, BODY OF PROOF slumped to tie its season low of 1.8.

CW:  90210 did an OK 0.8, but despite some promoted plot twists in its "fall finale," RINGER was blah with a 0.6.  (Incidentally, it's worth noting that in Monday's final ratings HART OF DIXIE rose to a 0.9.  That's higher than anything on CW has done lately on a non-Thursday, and even more impressively, it marked a 50% improvement from its lead-in Gossip Girl's 0.6.)

Tonight ABC will air a full night of reruns, opening the door for other networks to do some business.  NBC has its annual CHRISTMAS IN ROCKFELLER CENTER special at 8PM, while CBS airs its odd concert/awards announcement GRAMMY NOMINATION show at 10.  Meanwhile, FOX seizes the opportunity to premiere the final "fall" show of the broadcast season, I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER, at 9:30PM.   

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD



The word "turkey" comes to mind when looking at last night's pre-holiday landscape.

ABC:  The cycle finale of DANCING WITH THE STARS was of course the highest rated show of the night and enough to give ABC the Tuesday win, but in keeping with the way this whole cycle has gone, it was distressingly down more than 20% from last year's fall finale.  The show did manage to lift LAST MAN STANDING and MAN UP! one or two ticks along with it.


FOX:  A special Tuesday X FACTOR did OK, but its 3.2 rating was down significantly from regular airings.

CBS:  By this network's lofty standards, a lousy night, with both NCIS shows and UNFORGETTABLE all hitting season lows.  (And yet even Unforgettable did well enough to beat the entire NBC line-up.)

NBCBIGGEST LOSER tied its season low, and PARENTHOOD set one.  But hey, don't those Smash promos look cool?

CW90210 fell to the low 0.6 end of the network's range, followed by another repeat of the HART OF DIXIE pilot.

Things won't get better tonight, with holiday travel and preparations in play.  ABC will nevertheless air a full schedule of new shows, which should give it an easy win albeit at diminished levels.

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THE SKED'S TUESDAY NETWORK SCORECARD



Post-baseball hangover over?  Not so fast.

FOX:  Unlike Monday, FOX's Tuesday seems to have been seriously dented by baseball preemptions.  GLEE only recovered a bit of its pre-baseball number, and despite a much-publicized episode in which 2 of the main characters lost their virginity, the show is now running a scary 25% below last season's average.  NEW GIRL managed to barely win its timeslot, but it's 20% below where it was at the beginning of October.  Making matters worse, RAISING HOPE took an odd nosedive from last week, and is now losing 40% of its lead-in's rating. 


ABC:  The LAST MAN STANDING/MAN UP! hour isn't benefiting from Glee's decline, as both shows continued to slip.  Preempting BODY OF PROOF didn't do anything for the 10PM hour, as a Robin Roberts interview special was even a couple of ticks worse.

CBS:  The NCIS shows continue to deliver, and while UNFORGETTABLE isn't in their league, it's doing well enough to win its weak timeslot.

NBCTHE BIGGEST LOSER built a bit on last week's increase (although it's still running more than 20% below last season's average), but PARENTHOOD was unable to capitalize on that and was at the lower end of its season's range.

CW  90210 and RINGER were respectively slightly up and down, but only by a tenth each.  With the exception of Thursday, the network's schedule is mired in the 0.6-0.8 range (with a 2 month hiatus on the way).

Tonight we'll see a disruption in the usual Wednesday as ABC preempts its schedule for one of the few November sweeps stunts, the CMA Awards show.  Last year's telecast did a sterling 4.7 in 18-49s, and that would be considerably higher even than the network's very successful recent average for the night. 

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THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard


It's taken this long for full ratings to be released from yesterday, mostly because of FOX's baseball coverage.  And as Mitch Metcalf just reported, tonight is going to be a disaster for FOX as well, with a rain delay in what was supposed to be an afternoon game likely meaning the evening's scheduled X FACTOR won't air.  Before yesterday fades into memory, here's how the networks fared.


ABC:  The network launched Tim Allen's LAST MAN STANDING, and the results were... OK.  A 3.6 is certainly nothing to complain about, and if the show stays at that level, ABC will be very happy.  But this series has been a marketing priority for the network since the Upfronts back in May, and its premiere had the most carefully chosen date of any fall launch, designed to avoid competition from Glee for as long as possible.  After all that, the show managed a number only 0.3 higher than the premiere of the far less heavily promoted Suburgatory, and nowhere near the averages of New Girl or 2 Broke Girls so far this season, let alone their premieres.  The fact is that we won't know where Last Man stands until November, when FOX's regular schedule returns.  DANCING WITH THE STARS was up a bit, but we can't know if that's because of Last Man or the sharply reduced competition on FOX; BODY OF PROOF was down from last week.

NBC:  I believe (someone will tell me if I'm wrong) that last night's PARENTHOOD was the first to ever build from its BIGGEST LOSER lead-in.  Part of that is because Loser continues to sink, of course, but it's also true that Parenthood (which aired another superb episode last night--special kudos to cast members Peter Krause, Monica Potter, Dax Shepard, Mae Whitman and Max Burkholder) has been rock-solid in the ever-shrinking universe of NBC ratings, and is now one of their most reliable 1-hour shows.  

CBS:  Even with baseball as competition (which should theoretically affect CBS most due to its older audience), there was barely any movement in their numbers.  The question that the network will have to decide is whether they're content with losing one-third of the NCIS LA audience at 10PM when millions decide not to watch UNFORGETTABLE, or if they think they can do better in that slot.

FOX  As Mitch Metcalf noted in his baseball piece, at some point FOX has to wonder why it's still in the postseason baseball business.  Last night's' game with its 2.4 rating was 30% below the prior week's episode of Glee, and almost 45% lower than New Girl, and that's without even counting the mess that rain delays and extra innings have made of the network's Sunday, Monday and now Wednesday schedules.  And the worst news for FOX is that with the teams left in this year's postseason, there's more than a small chance that this will be the lowest-rated World Series ever.

CW:  As noted elsewhere, CW seized the uptick in RINGER's rating to give it a full-season order, then gave them to HART OF DIXIE and THE SECRET CIRCLE as well.  None of which changes the fact that the network did an 0.7 last night with 90210 and 0.8 with RINGER, but it seems as though, for now at least, that's good enough for this network.

Tonight's numbers will be askew due to the last minute change in FOX's schedule, but ratings to keep an eye on will include NBC's UP ALL NIGHT (for the first time followed by a repeat of WHITNEY), the results of SUBURGATORY's Week 3, and the post-premiere number for FX's AMERICAN HORROR STORY.  (We'll have a Pilot + 1 review of the latter here later tonight.)

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THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard


The excitement of Premiere Week is over, and shows are settling into their "real" numbers.

FOX: The small decline for NEW GIRL (which had another charming episode last night--the show has found its creative groove with remarkable speed) isn't serious.  What may concern FOX, though, is that they promoted last night's extremely earnest episode of GLEE like crazy--it was practically A Very Special Episode--and the number ticked down instead of up.  Glee is now on hiatus until November 1 because of baseball, and unless the network has some big "event" episode set for the show's return, they have to be a little worried about what that rating will be in 4 weeks.


CBS:  Even though the decline for UNFORGETTABLE was very slight, and consistent with the small drops for the NCIS shows, the fact is that the new series is losing audience rather than building one.  If that number keeps creeping down over the next few weeks (especially if Body of Proof creeps up), that could be a problem.

ABC:  Although the BODY OF PROOF number will probably come down a bit when final numbers are in (due to DANCING WITH THE STARS overrun), it's heartening that the show is moving up, even as Dancing is heading in the other direction.

NBCBIGGEST LOSER is starting to earn its title, and the sad part is that it's dragging down PARENTHOOD with it.  NBC is essentially out of the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday business this fall, which is scary..

CW:   Although it was doubtless hurt by its lousy 90210 lead-in, RINGER has felt more unconvincing and dramatically weak with each episode, and that can't be helping its numbers.

Tonight we'll find out how SUBURGATORY holds up on its second airing.  Look for a Pilot + 1 Review later, and also for a review of Ryan Murphy's new FX spectacle, AN AMERICAN HORROR STORY.

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THE SKED: Week 2 + 1 - CW Network Scorecard


The third week of a network season is a critical one.  Ratings erosion after a series or season premiere is expected and even acceptable, because it's understood that not every viewer drawn by hype and marketing will be a satisfied customer.  But a continued fall in Week 3 can be a sign of trouble, and if that decline is from a number that wasn't great to begin with, the trouble could be serious.  That being said, let's take a look at where the networks stand as they begin this crucial week.  (Note:  since only 2 networks debuted their Monday schedules on the season's first official day, we'll include the next Monday in our review of the week.)

CW

Thriving:
Holdover  - THE VAMPIRE DIARIES.  That's it.


Struggling:
THE SECRET CIRCLE, RINGER, HART OF DIXIE - All are essentially identical in the ratings, with 0.8 or 0.9. These aren't good numbers, but the latter 2 are even or better compared to their lead-ins:

Holdovers - 90210 and GOSSIP GIRL, which are respectively at 0.7 and 0.8. AMERICA'S NEXT TOP MODEL is there, too.

Dying:
H8R - But not soon enough.

GRADE:  C-minus


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THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard


On a night without a lot of movement, sometimes standing still works out for the best.

FOX:  Zooey Deschanel may not be a mainstream movie star, but her Manic Pixie Dream Girl charms are definitely making her one on TV:  NEW GIRL (see our Pilot + 1 Review) is just a hair behind 2 Broke Girls as the biggest hit of the new season (and 1 of them should be the first to grab a back-order of Spring episodes).  Even more impressively, while Broke Girls is running essentially even with its strong How I Met Your Mother lead-in, New Girl had to do a lot of the heavy lifting itself.  All that's keeping FOX from spending the morning doing handstands is that so far, New Girl is a smash in isolation:  GLEE is settling into its new post-blockbuster, sub-4 rating world (as to last night's episode:  the series is so willfully strange that sometimes the relatively naturalistic episodes are the ones that seem oddest),  and RAISING HOPE is only slightly above last season's average.


CBS:  The NCIS franchise won 3 of its 4 half-hours last night, falling into 2d place only to New Girl and almost dead even with last week's numbers.  But UNFORGETTABLE (read our Pilot + 1 Review) can't afford to fade much more--it's already running even with The Good Wife's numbers in that slot, and those are the numbers that got Good Wife moved to another night.  On CBS, even winning your time slot isn't a guarantee of success if you squander your lead-in, and Unforgettable lost almost 40% of the NCIS:  LA number.

NBC:  BIGGEST LOSER is down an awful 30% from last season, and since it fills 2 hours of the night, Tuesday is basically cooked (albeit in a low-fat, nutritional way) for the network, much as Sing-Off is killing their Mondays.  The only shred of good news is that PARENTHOOD, while down from last season's average, is holding steady (another great episode last night), and suddenly finds itself very much in the 10PM race against weak competition on the other networks.  For NBC, that's a "hit".  

ABC:  The 8PM DANCING WITH THE STARS special is just a place-holder until Tim Allen rides to the rescue in a few weeks (they hope), but it's certainly not keeping the timeslot warm.  The Dancing results show is a disaster, down 30% from last year's, and the same is true for BODY OF PROOF, which is getting slammed by the direct competition of Unforgettable.

CW:  The good news is that there wasn't any bad news:  Ringer, despite being a serialized show (and despite another disappointing episode) stopped bleeding and held steady at last week's 0.9, and 90210 even went up a tick to 0.8.  Those numbers aren't much, but they're where the CW is these days.

Things to watch for tonight:  whether Revenge can sustain its impressive opening (look for our Pilot + 1 Review), and whether Up All Night can avoid any more slippage for NBC at 8PM.
 

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THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard


Two of the fall's most publicized new shows premiered last night, to very different results.

FOX:  The House of Murdoch won the night, as well as the biggest headline:  all those ads showcasing the goofy charm of Zooey Deschanel paid off big-time, and NEW GIRL's 4.8 rating (slightly updated from Mitch Metcalf's report) was about as good a number as the network could have wished for.  Even after the show settles down to a post-premiere level, the series should still be one of the half-dozen highest-rated sitcoms on all of broadcast TV, and if the show's quality holds up, there could be plenty of potential upside.  The only bad news for FOX was that one reason New Girl looked so good was that its lead-in, the season premiere of GLEE, was significantly down from last year's premiere--meaning that New Girl rose 20% from its lead-in (unlike 2 Broke Girls, which did a much bigger number than New Girl but lost more than 30% of its 2 1/2 Men lead-in).  The Glee number supports the idea that while it's still a hit show, its moment in the zeitgeist may have passed.  Also, RAISING HOPE didn't particularly benefit from its golden lead-in, and was only up around 10% from last season's average. 


CBS:  The network has to be a little disappointed with its UNFORGETTABLE premiere, even though the show won its timeslot:  they marketed the hell out of the series all summer, and while its 20% decline from the NCIS: LA lead-in was OK, it's nothing to get excited about.  Assuming that Unforgettable settles into a post-premiere number in the mid-2's, that'll just barely win the timeslot, and doesn't suggest a breakout hit (in comparison, the network's Hawaii 5-0 and The Mentalist, both in the same genre, typically exceed a 3).  The good news was that the 2 NCIS shows were utterly solid in their season premieres, and if Glee slips any more, CBS could have a chance of taking over the night.

NBC:  The aging BIGGEST LOSER was down from last season, and its 2.3 only keeps the show safe because it's on NBC.  On the upside, PARENTHOOD (which has quietly become one of the best dramas on network TV) was barely touched by the arrival of Unforgettable, and could find itself quite competitive at 10PM once the new show subsides.

ABC:  The network is waiting till October to launch its 8PM sitcoms, so they aired a low-rated DANCING WITH THE STARS special in the slot that doesn't mean much.  However, the Dancing results show at 9 was way down from last year's Tuesday installment, and that series, too, may have seen its best days (although given the celebrity component, it can always be hyped up with exciting new blood, assuming any is available).  BODY OF PROOF held up fine at 10PM, despite the direct procedural competition from CBS.

CW:  Not good.  RINGER (see our Pilot + 1 review) lost a scary chunk of its audience and dipped below a 1 rating, particularly bad because since it's a serialized show, those viewers are unlikely to come back.  However, the series did increase 20% from its 90210 lead-in, which has already dipped below last season's average.  Ringer can probably survive at this level, considering it's the CW, but any further declines would be very dangerous.

Tonight, 2 more big network bets arrive:  FOX's X-FACTOR extravaganza and ABC's REVENGE

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THE SKED: SHOWBUZZDAILY’S FALL 2011/12 MONDAY TV SCHEDULE




Welcome to ShowbuzzDaily's coverage of the upcoming TV schedules for the 2011/12 TV season!  Above you see our guide to what to expect on Monday nights this Fall:  the numbers are our projected Adults 18-49 ratings for each show; the capitalized titles are the new shows; and italics are for shows changing their time slots.  Here’s our analysis of what will really be going on behind the numbers:

Although CBS will leave its schedule fairly stable, with just one new show (the sitcom TWO BROKE GIRLS with Kat Dennings), they face the biggest challenge of the night:  keeping 2 ½ MEN a hit without Charlie Sheen.  We think the loss of Sheen is going to lower their rating at 9PM, but that the show will still perform strongly for them, and they should continue to hold steady for the night.

NBC’s Monday was a disaster this past season, with THE EVENT, THE CAPE and LAW & ORDER:  LOS ANGELES all failing, CHUCK barely surviving, and HARRY’S LAW only doing well enough to justify a move to a new home with the sparser, older audiences on Fridays.  We think they’ll completely redo the night, leading off with their new hit reality show THE VOICE, and then trying to build on that lead-in with 2 new sitcoms that have great buzz:  UP ALL NIGHT with Christina Applegate, Maya Rudolph and Will Arnett, and ARE YOU THERE VODKA?  IT’S ME CHELSEA, starring Laura Prepon and based on the bestselling Chelsea Handler book.  With a strong, female-oriented backbone on the night, we think they’ll move PARENTHOOD over from Tuesday, where it’s been critically acclaimed but ratings challenged.  All these moves should give them a significantly higher rating for the night than they had this year.

FOX will make a big change on Mondays by following HOUSE with the new ALCATRAZ, from JJ Abrams (LOST, FRINGE) and featuring LOST alums both in its cast (Jorge Garcia aka Hurley) and its writing staff.  It’s a crime drama with a supernatural tinge, and those can be risky, garnering limited—although enthusiastic--audiences.  But we think ALCATRAZ has a shot of catching the wider crowds that previously showed up for LOST and HEROES.

ABC, which generally wins the night with its combo of DANCING WITH THE STARS and CASTLE, has no reason to make any changes, and The CW will stick with its brand-name shows 90210 and GOSSIP GIRL, which hits their audience of Women 18-34.

Be sure to follow ShowbuzzDaily all through Upfront week:  we'll cover the actual network schedules as soon as they're announced, with our own brand of instant expert analysis... and stay tuned for reviews of the shows you'll be watching (or not) in the fall!

WANT MORE?  Click on any link below to read predictions for another night:

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