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Showing posts with label rise of the planet of the apes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rise of the planet of the apes. Show all posts

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS September 18

6:30 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

The Worldwide Box Office revenue chart has been expanded to the Top 30 releases this week (currently the cut-off to make the list is about $150 million worldwide).  Through Sunday, The Smurfs have moved up to #8 and is closing in on $500 million worldwide ($144 million domestic and an incredible $345 million overseas).

Rise of the Planet of the Apes has crossed the $400 million mark but is stuck at #11.  Rise is going to need to find another $50 million overseas to displace Thor from #10, a tough task at this point in its release.


The Help now has $6 million overseas and finds itself at #26 worldwide.  With only $5 million more from overseas markets, it can move up to #24, but it is going to be hard to get much higher than that due to limited overseas potential overall.

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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS September 11

3:26 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

The biggest gainer in the international box office this week was The Smurfs.  Now with an overseas total of $321 million, The Smurfs has moved past Thor into the #9 position. 


Rise of the Planet of the Apes is starting to stall out overseas and will probably remain in 11th place, just behind Thor.

The Help is just behind #25 (Mr. Popper's Penguins).  With only $4 million overseas, The Help will not big a big player internationally, but it should pick up enough in the next week or two to make its way into the Top 25 chart. 


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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: International Bullet Points

5:17 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,


Click below for a quick summary of some notable numbers from this past weekend overseas:


THE SMURFS reached $141M overseas with the help of a tremendous $60M weekend.  Like other recent 3D animated films, it has a good chance of doubling its US gross overseas.
 
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, still in only 39 territories, grossed $40M for an international total so far of $74M.  It should reach a higher number overseas than domestically, but perhaps not in the upper reaches of that multiple.
 
CAPTAIN AMERICA added $12M to its overseas total, and still has much of Europe to look forward to, as well as Japan and China.  So far it's made $128M internationally--but it still isn't clear whether this one will total much more overseas than it's done in the US.
 
THE GREEN LANTERN (remember that one?) added $14M to its $61M international total.  It's now played in most of the world, so it's officially a global bust.

Although CARS 2 made a disappointing $180M in the US. its international total is $290M, and it's now passed the overseas total of the original CARS.  
 
COWBOYS & ALIENS grossed $7M in 14 territories.  That's still a small fraction of the world, but there's no indication that the movie has any chance of bailing itself out for its losses in the US.

On the other extreme, HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) added $30M to make its international total a gigantic $858M , for a worldwide take of $1.22B. 

TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON reached $736M overseas, for a $1.07B worldwide total, but the staggering number here is $151M from China alone--not to mention another $70M from South Korea.  Think of that next time one of your favorite franchises suddenly starts featuring Asian locations and co-stars.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE Aug 8-14

4:54 PM | Labels: , , , , ,

Another strong week in North American movie theaters.  The full week box office (August 8-14) generated $236 million, up 16% versus the same week last year and up 10% versus the average week the past four years.

Year-to-date box office is $6.677 billion, now down only 4.0% from this time last year and up 1.8% from the average for the past four years.  Strong continuing box office from Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help should improve the year-to-date picture even more in the next few weeks.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Early Weekend Numbers

10:35 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,


Deadline has preliminary numbers for Saturday and the weekend, and any worries that THE HELP would suffer from front-loading are out the window.  Rather amazingly, the picture seems to have climbed more than 25% from Friday to Saturday, and it seems likely to get near $25M for the weekend and $35M since its opening on Wednesday.  DreamWorks/Disney's seemingly odd decision to open the movie in the dead of August is looking pretty damn smart right now.

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should still win the weekend with about $26.5M, representing a good second weekend decline of a bit over 50%.  As expected, FINAL DESTINATION 5 took a Saturday hit, and may not get to $18M for the weekend, while 30 MINUTES OR LESS held about even and is still headed for a meager $13M.  Saddest of all is GLEE 3D, which turned out not just to be a flop, but a front-loaded one:  it seems to have plummeted more than 35% from Friday to Saturday, making for a pathetic $5.5M weekend.  (Is the Gleek audience starting to suffer from Glee overload?  Suddenly the TV series ratings for the new season don't seem like a certainty.)

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for Mitch Metcalf's full weekend report and analysis in the morning, and international numbers as soon as they're available.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Footnotes - August 13

1:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


Let's take a look at just how remarkably THE HELP is performing so far.  

The most obvious points of comparison are the literary-sourced, female-skewing hits of the last 2 Augusts:  Julie & Julia in 2009, and last year's Eat Pray Love.  Julia had a $20M opening that led to a $94M domestic gross; Eat was a little more front-loaded, with a $23M start on its way to an $80M total.  The Help will beat Julia's opening and has a fair chance of surpassing both of them--but only Help came to Friday with $10M already in the bank thanks to its Wednesday opening, which doesn't seem to have dampened its weekend at all.  Also, while both Julia and Eat were escapist entertainments, with easily promotable subjects like gourmet food and fabulous foreign locations (along with stars like Meryl Streep, Amy Adams and Julia Roberts), The Help is a serious period piece about the Civil Rights era that features Emma Stone only as part of an ensemble of mostly African-American actresses.    (These factors, however, may be more serious hindrances overseas, where Help is more likely to echo Julia's $35M boxoffice than Eat's lofty $124M.)  Oh, and Help's budget is $25M, far below Julia's $40M and Eat's $60M.

DreamWorks seems to have captured the audience that Lionsgate was hoping to get last year with Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls:  a combination of African-American and arthouse crowds.  It's very hard to tell how this will play out over time, as the African-American audience is notoriously front-loaded (as has been the case with all of Perry's movies), while arthouses are exactly the opposite.  In any case, The Help faces little direct competition over the next several weeks:  just One Day next Friday (which Focus has been oddly shy about marketing), Sarah Jessica Parker's I Don't Know How She Does It on September 16, and then on a more general prestige-movie level, Moneyball the following week.

Along with the immediate financial return, the success of The Help should help give it credence in the march to year-end awards--although this gets complicated.  DreamWorks has a little movie called War Horse on its way from studio patriarch Steven Spielberg, and that film will almost certainly get the lion's share of the Best Picture push.  However, War Horse is less likely to be in contention for performance awards, so the way is clear for DreamWorks to push Help's cast for Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  The question, though, will be:  who in which category?  This is especially important for Viola Davis, who would probably be the early frontrunner for Supporting Actress right now, but arguably is as much the lead in Help as Emma Stone--however, if Davis chooses to campaign for Actress, she'll face competition like Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.  

Of course, these are high-class problems to have.

The rest of the Friday numbers are far less interesting.  RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a perfectly decent hold, but one that feels a little soft given its supposedly excellent word of mouth. The flop of 30 MINUTES OR LESS demonstrates that Jesse Eisenberg and Aziz Ansari aren't yet boxoffice draws, and that (especially combined with Your Highness earlier this year) Danny McBride is at best a cult figure who puts off as many people as he attracts.  FINAL DESTINATION 5 will probably top out at about $50M, but the big question is how it will do overseas, where the last chapter in the franchise almost doubled its US gross.  And GLEE 3D won't make any profit (unless it scores a hit on homevideo), but serves as an infomercial for the TV series mothership.

A quiet week for limited releases, with the documentary SENNA pulling in the only opening of any note, a very solid $30-35K in each of its 2 theatres.  

When they talk about the dog days of summer, next weekend is what they mean.  Along with the previously mentioned and curiously unpublicized ONE DAY (starring Anne Hathaway, based on a high-quality, best-selling novel--where's the buzz?), we get not one, not two, but three 3D reboots of pictures that weren't all that good the first time:  CONAN THE BARBARIAN, FRIGHT NIGHT and SPY KIDS.  A good weekend to go to the beach, or catch up on your DVR queue.




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THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE: UPDATED: Not-Yet-Final Friday Numbers

8:14 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

Fuller numbers are in, and they show a surprising near-tie on Friday between RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, THE HELP and FINAL DESTINATION 5, all at $7.3-7.8M for the day.  The Apes have the presumptive advantage over the weekend, because 2d weekends are less front-loaded than openings, but since The Help started on Wednesday, that rule may not apply and the race could end up much closer than expected.  (Final Destination 5 is almost certain to fade.)  However the final numbers play out, this is great news for The Help.

30 MINUTES OR LESS is headed for a dim $12M or so over the weekend, and even that looks good compared to GLEE 3D, which may only do $7-8M.  

As to other holdovers, COWBOYS & ALIENS looks to plummet another 50-55%, while CRAZY STUPID LOVE and THE SMURFS had good holds again, falling only 40% or so from last Friday. 


The Hollywood Reporter has some extremely early Friday numbers, and it appears that RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES had a very healthy day with $8.5-9M, which could double its $4.3M Thursday.  If that number holds, it should lead to a $25M+ weekend, which would be a very acceptable 55% or so drop from its opening.

THE HELP, on its smaller scale, is also doing quite well, aiming at about $6M for Friday, which could give it $20M for the weekend and $30M since its Wednesday opening.  Considering that the movie's budget was only $25M (excluding marketing), that would be a very good number.  My review is here.   

FINAL DESTINATION 5's Friday appears to be in Help's neighborhood, but the horror movie cost more ($40M+) and will almost certainly be far more front-loaded. 

After that, the news gets less good for new arrivals:  both GLEE 3D and 30 MINUTES OR LESS (my review of the latter is here) seem to be headed for around $10M for the weekend, with Minutes perhaps a bit ahead.  The Glee concert movie cost less and should do stronger business on homevideo, so that's better news for them than for 30 Minutes.

Check out Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for the latest boxoffice numbers and analysis.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE Aug 1-7

1:00 PM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The past week (seven days ending Sunday) came in up 19% versus last year's comparable week (the fourth significant increase in as many weeks).  Year-to-date box office is now down 4.6% versus last year.  Rise of the Planet of the Apes from 20th Century Fox set the pace for a solid weekend: it beat its weekend forecast (issued Thursday) and it beat the Sunday studio projection, indicating strong late weekend interest.  The Change-Up from Universal was a non-factor this weekend.   


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between August 1 and 7 grossed a very good $250 million, up 19% versus the same week in 2010 and up 23% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 4.6% from the same period last year (down from -5.4% last week), and all films year-to-date are up 2% versus the comparable year-to-date number averaged over the last four years.  

All Films August 1-7
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #30     $203    $211    $250    +23%    +19%

Year to Date $6749   $6345   $6441   -4.6%   + 2%




Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now:  

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($368 million, 99th percentile for all wide releases the past two years)
Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($359 million, 99th percentile)Captain America ($179 million, 92nd percentile)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($157 million, 89th percentile)
The Smurfs ($127 million, 85th percentile)
Horrible Bosses ($121 million, 84th percentile)
Cowboys & Aliens ($101 million, 79th percentile)
Zookeeper ($81 million, 72nd percentile)
Crazy, Stupid, Love ($76 million, 70th percentile)
Friends with Benefits ($64 million, 64th percentile)
Larry Crowne ($36 million, 43rd percentile)
Winnie the Pooh ($29 million, 33rd percentile)
Monte Carlo ($23 million, 23rd percentile)

Note Harry Potter's domestic final estimate is now higher than Transformers' again.


Weekend Actuals vs Sunday's Studio Projections


The weekend Studio Projection (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for Rise of the Planet of the Apes was actually low ($800,000 lower than the actual weekend).  This is a good sign for Rise as it indicates Sunday was very strong and might be a good indicator of positive word of mouth.  The projection for The Change-Up exactly matched the actual weekend number.    


      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      August 1-7                 Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)   $54.0    $54.8     $157
The Smurfs               (Sony)   $21.0    $20.7     $127
Cowboys & Aliens          (Uni)   $15.7    $15.7     $101
The Change-Up             (Uni)   $13.5    $13.5     $ 36
Captain America           (Par)   $13.0    $13.0     $179
Harry Potter 8             (WB)   $12.2    $12.4     $368
Crazy, Stupid, Love        (WB)   $12.1    $12.0     $ 76
Friends with Benefits    (Sony)   $ 4.7    $ 4.7     $ 64
Horrible Bosses            (WB)   $ 4.6    $ 4.6     $121
Transformers 3            (Par)   $ 3.0    $ 3.1     $359
Zookeeper                (Sony)   $ 2.2    $ 2.2     $ 81 


Look for the Summer Movie Draft update later today (Monday).

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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS August 7

2:36 PM | Labels: , , , , , ,

Debuting at #21 (just off the chart below), Rise of the Planet of the Apes has a projected total domestic gross of $155 million and an overseas gross to date of $23 million, as it opens slowly around the world.  But that overseas number will pick up and probably go to $200-250 million, putting Rise into the top 10 for the year ultimately.  The Change-Up will be a non-factor worldwide.  It debuts at #64 (an estimated domestic total of $35 million and no overseas gross yet).  Overseas dollars for the body-switch comedy will probably remain around zero.  Click "Read more" to see the Top 20 chart.


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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES August 5-7

9:12 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Rise of the Planet of the Apes will dominate with a $54 million opening weekend, even stronger than estimated yesterday.  In contrast, looking even weaker than it did yesterday, The Change-Up is only able to generate a $13.5 million.  The weekend overall is now looking like it will be up 29% from this weekend last year.    

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Rise of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $155 million, while The Change-Up will be lucky to hit $35 million.  The Smurfs has been upgraded to $128 million, while Cowboys & Aliens is on pace for $101 million and Crazy, Stupid, Love is on track for $76 million.  Captain America: The First Avenger is locking in on $179 million, while Friends with Benefits is still on pace for $64 million.            


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Rise of the Planet of the Apes will average a very good $14,800 per theater at 3,648 theaters (for $54.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  The Change-Up opened with a below average $4,635 at 2,913 theaters (only $13.5 million for the R-rated comedy with the not-so-novel body switch premise).   

The second week decline for The Smurfs (-41%) and Cowboys & Aliens (-57%) are what we should expect from their respective genres.      



August 5-7, 2011                    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)     $54.0             $155
The Smurfs               (Sony)     $21.0   -41%      $128
Cowboys & Aliens          (Uni)     $15.7   -57%      $101
The Change-Up             (Uni)     $13.5             $ 35
Captain America           (Par)     $13.0   -49%      $179
Crazy, Stupid, Love        (WB)     $12.1   -37%      $ 76
Harry Potter 8             (WB)     $12.2   -45%      $367
Friends with Benefits    (Sony)     $ 4.7   -49%      $ 64
Horrible Bosses            (WB)     $ 4.6   -36%      $122
Transformers 3         (Par/DW)     $ 3.0   -50%      $359

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $158 million total, up 29% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Other Guys and Step Up 3-D opened.  


 Top 12 Films: Weekend #31

     Volume     (millions)
2011  $158  (+25% vs 2007-10 average; +29% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $126  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $123  The Other Guys $35, Step Up 3-D $16    
2009  $132  GI Joe:Rise Cobra $55, Julie & Julia $20
2008  $111  Pineapple Express $23, Sisterhood Trav. Pants $11
2007  $140  Rush Hour 3 $49, Stardust $9

To see the original Weekend Predictions click here.  International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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THE BIJOU: UPDATED--Early Weekend Boxoffice Results

3:30 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,


Deadline has a more complete set of Saturday numbers, and the news just gets better and better for RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES.  It now appears the picture didn't drop at all from Friday, and it could edge as high as $55M for the weekend.  (No such luck for CHANGE-UP, still looking at an anemic $14M.)

Among holdovers, THE SMURFS had a good Saturday and could top $20M in its 2d weekend, which would be a solid drop of only around 45%.   COWBOYS & ALIENS stabilized somewhat from its Friday number, but is still looking at about a 55% drop for the weekend.  The really impressive number, though, belongs to CRAZY STUPID LOVE, which may have an outstanding hold, down only around 35%.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY later today for Mitch Metcalf's rundown of all the weekend numbers and analysis, and some Boxoffice Footnotes.


The Hollywood Reporter has RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES at an extremely good $19.2M for Saturday, almost even with Friday (which includes the Thursday midnight shows).  If this number holds after West Coast evening performances are in, it should give Fox around a $53M opening, far better than expected and around the same as the openings for Green Lantern and X Men:  First Class.  Apes is a far better movie than Lantern, so word of mouth should be stronger and it should be on track for at least the $147M in Mitch Metcalf's predictions this morning.

According to Deadline,  THE CHANGE-UP got the benefit of some Saturday date business and climbed slightly for the day, but not enough to move the needle from its predicted $14M weekend. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for all the weekend boxoffice numbers and analysis. 

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FRIDAY AUGUST 5 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:05 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Rise of the Planet of the Apes will finish the weekend at #1 with an estimated $51 million at this point, significantly above the ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  In contrast, Universal's The Change-Up is struggling, missing a much lower estimate.  The holdovers are showing mostly acceptable declines except for Cowboys & Aliens.  Overall, the weekend is up 24% versus the same weekend last year.   

Rise of the Planet of the Apes should open well above forecast ($19.8 million Friday for an estimated $51 million opening weekend, compared to a $43.5 million prediction).  Rise is on track for $147 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday..  Critics nationwide have been quite positive about the film (80% positive at RottenTomatoes), suggesting there is a real chance this movie will not suffer the steep declines in coming weeks normally seen with sci-fi films.  Read Mitch Salem's review here. 


The Change-Up is opening below forecast ($4.7 million Friday for an expected $14 million this weekend versus a $18.5 million forecast).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.  The Change-Up is headed for $47 million in North America.    

The Smurfs should drop an acceptable 48% from its first weekend, while Cowboys & Aliens should fall an expected 58% (because of its genre and weak buzz).  Captain America should drop 51% (an improvement over last week's fall-off).  Also in its third weekend, Friends with Benefits is looking like it will fall another 51% (similar to last week).       

August 5-7, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$43.5]    $51.0   $19.8     $147
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$21  ]    $18.5   $ 5.9     $118
Cowboys & Aliens (Uni)   [$16.5]    $15.2   $ 4.7     $ 99
The Change-Up (Uni)      [$18.5]    $14.0   $ 4.7     $ 47
Captain America (Par)    [$13  ]    $12.5   $ 3.7     $177
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$11.5]    $11.8   $ 3.7     $ 75
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$11.5]    $11.7   $ 3.4     $366
Friends w/ Benefits Sony [$ 5  ]    $ 4.5   $ 1.5     $ 63 
Horrible Bosses (WB)     [$ 4.5]    $ 4.4   $ 1.3     $121
Transformers 3  (Par/DW) [$ 3.5]    $ 2.9   $ 0.8     $358

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 


Art house highlights to come later this morning.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total, up 24% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Other Guys and Step Up 3-D opened.  

 Top 12 Films: Weekend #31

     Volume     (millions)
2011  $152  (+20% vs 2007-10 average; +24% vs 2010) 

2007-10

Avg   $126  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $123  The Other Guys $35, Step Up 3-D $16    
2009  $132  GI Joe:Rise Cobra $55, Julie & Julia $20
2008  $111  Pineapple Express $23, Sisterhood Trav. Pants $11
2007  $140  Rush Hour 3 $49, Stardust $9

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Final Destination 5 from Warner Brothers, 30 Minutes or Less from Sony, The Help from Disney (opening Wednesday), and horrifically Glee the 3D Concert Movie from Fox.  Those movies will be compared to The Expendables ($35 million opening weekend), Eat Pray Love ($23 million) and Scott Pilgrim vs the World ($11 million), making next weekend a possible up weekend versus 2010. 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers. 

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