Movie Box Review

As expected yesterday, the actuals for Sunday, January 1, are coming in much lower than the studios estimated.  The top 10 films look like they grossed closer to $43 million Sunday, much lower than the $53 million estimated yesterday.  The $43 million number is much closer to the historical pattern of a January 1 on a Sunday (last seen in the 2005 holiday season).  The forecast for today's box office is much more in line with historical patterns.
 
                 DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29  $41.0 Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30  $49.6 Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31  $42.3 Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01  $42.8 Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun
Jan 02  $38.2*Mon   $38.6 Sun   $20.4 Tue   $36.5 Mon


* - Estimated by Studios

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

The year to-date box office tally picked up some ground versus last year with the past week running 12% ahead of the same week last year.  The actual weekend openings for Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 and Happy Feet Two came in somewhat below the studio projections issued Sunday.         

Harry Potter is leaving the screen with a bang, setting a new single-day record and a new opening weekend record.  And the film has absolutely ingnited the box office, pushing the weekend up almost 50% versus this weekend last year.   

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (the 8th and final -- according to Warner Brothers -- Potter movie) opened way above forecast ($92 million Friday for an expected $175 million this weekend versus a $145 million forecast).  Harry Potter 8 now owns the single-day record (besting Twilight Saga: New Moon's $73 million on Friday, November 20, 2009) and the opening weekend record (smashing Dark Night's $158 million opening July 18-20, 2008).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Prediction.  Harry Potter is headed for $425 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers will be just even more potent.  Look for an overseas round-up late Sunday.  And see Mitch Salem's review of Harry Potter's finale.   

Winnie the Pooh will hit its meager forecast.  The animated Disney film is expected to reach $8.8 million this weekend, almost exactly the $9 million prediction.  The film is headed for a quiet $35 million total in North America. 

Click "Read more" to see the complete box office chart.



Horrible Bosses should drop a very good 37% (more good news for Warner Brothers, as if they needed it this morning), and the film has been upgraded a touch to $109 million.  Zookeeper should decline 43% and is holding steady at a $67 million final domestic.   

Transformers: Dark of the Moon should fall 54% from last weekend, and its domestic gross is locking in on $375 million.  


July 15-17, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$145 ]    $175    $92.1     $425
Transformers 3  (Par/DW) [$22.5]    $21.5   $ 6.3     $375
Horrible Bosses (WB)     [$17  ]    $17.8   $ 5.5     $109
Zookeeper (Sony)         [$11  ]    $11.5   $ 3.9     $ 67
Winnie the Pooh (Dis)    [$ 9  ]    $ 8.8   $ 2.9     $ 35
Cars 2 (Dis)             [$ 8  ]    $ 7.8   $ 2.4     $186
Bad Teacher (Sony)       [$ 5  ]    $ 4.7   $ 1.6     $101
Larry Crowne (Uni)       [$ 3.5]    $ 2.6   $ 0.8     $ 37
Super 8 (Par)            [$ 3  ]    $ 1.8   $ 0.5     $129

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases

More later as data becomes available. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $253 million total, up a whopping 48% from the same calendar weekend last year when Inception and Sorcerer's Apprentice opened.  

Top 12 Films: Weekend #28

     Volume
     (millions)
2011  $253  (+40% vs 2007-10 average; +48% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $181  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $171  Inception $63, Sorcerer's Apprentice $18    
2009  $152  Harry Potter Half-Blood Prince $78
2008  $254  Dark Knight $158, Mamma Mia! $28, Space Chimps $7
2007  $147  I Know Pronounce You Chuck & Larry $34, Hairspray $28

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Captain America from Paramount and Friends with Benefits from Sony.  Those movies will be compared to Salt ($36 million opening weekend) and Ramona and Beezus ($8 million), making next weekend a very probable up weekend versus 2010 (the second in as many weeks). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.