Movie Box Review

The last 2 weeks of the year will almost certainly bring better news for Hollywood, for reasons of tonnage alone:  there are 6 wide openings to come next week, compared to only 3 in the final weeks of 2010.  But for now, the stocking-stuffer of choice is coal.

SHERLOCK HOLMES:  GAME OF SHADOWS (Warners):  The point here isn't a potential 20% domestic shortfall on one movie that may well be made up overseas, where the market is booming for big-budget action.  The scary thing, not just for Warners but for all the studios, is that with increasingly rare exceptions, the US audience seems to be less interested than it used to be in the giant product that's been the cornerstone of the industry for more than 3 decades.  Other than Harry Potter (a special case, as the 8th and final chapter in a continuing saga), virtually every franchise entry this year has underperformed its predecessors domestically.  Will those ticket-buyers come back?  We'll find out in 2012, when huge additions to the Marvel, Batman, Spider-Man, Twilight, Lord of the Rings and other franchises are rolled out.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED (20th):  Ironically, all the family movies that crashed into each other over Thanksgiving weekend so as to avoid this presumed juggernaut could have spaced themselves out a little.  The moment seems to have passed for the squeaky threesome (6 if you count the Chipettes)--although, again, Mitch Metcalf's anticipated $140M US gross, combined with homevideo (people still buy DVDs for kids) and overseas boxoffice, will keep this franchise profitable.

MISSION:  IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL (Paramount):  Some good news, albeit loaded with asterisks.  A $24K weekend theatre average in 423 theatres is a terrific number... but by confining itself to Imax and other large-format screens, the studio boosted the ticket price considerably.  And don't forget those Dark Knight Rises extended trailers in the 70mm houses.  Nonetheless, an excellent start for an industry that needs one.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  Last time around, Paramount unveiled Jason Reitman's Up In the Air in the fall at Toronto and other festivals, and felt like the movie had peaked too soon and left potential awards on the table when it finally opened in December.  So this time, they kept Reitman's Young Adult under wraps until awards season.  Unfortunately, the move seems to have backfired:  apart from some (well-deserved) attention to Charlize Theron, the movie is getting limited acclaim, and with a likely $3200 average in about 1000 theatres, it may be doomed by New Year's.

CARNAGE (Sony Classics):  Despite impeccable credentials (Polanski, the Foster/Winslet/Walz/Reilly combo, Tony Award-winning source material) and some strong reviews where it's supposed to count, the film is headed for a deeply unexciting $17.5K average at 5 NY/LA theatres.

HOLDOVERS:  NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners) should slide less than 50%, but that's not nearly enough to save it.  THE SITTER (20th), as expected for its genre, will have a deeper slump and head for the exits.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) continues to do no better than OK; despite a great deal of awards love this week, its per-theatre average will be around $3500.  HUGO (Paramount) and ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony) are both holding well, but at very low numbers, around $1200-1400 per theatre, and THE MUPPETS (Disney) took a bigger fall to hit the same neighborhood.  The Weinstein Company continues to play a very slow hand with MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and THE ARTIST, neither of which expanded this week, and had modest per-theatre dips.  (Both will go wider on Dec. 23.)   Fox Searchlight did expand SHAME from 21 to 51 theatres, and as a result, the per-theatre average will drop sharply to around $6K.  

Next week, as noted, the holiday avalanche arrives.  On Wednesday, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) and THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount) open for their very different audiences, along with the wide expansion of MI4.  Those are followed on Friday by WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th).  Then Christmas Day brings WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney) and Summit's counterprogramming THE DARKEST HOUR.  Plenty for families, with a couple of dark dramas for the adults.  Will it work?  Stay tuned.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Warners):  Hardly any bump from Saturday night couples meant about as low an opening as anyone could have reasonably imagined.  Even with some play during Christmas week, the picture may struggle to earn more than its $56M production budget (which is separate from a likely $100M+ worldwide marketing budget).  After J. Edgar and this, Warners has to hope Sherlock Holmes 2 opens big next week, and then wait for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to arrive.

THE SITTER (Fox):  That $10M estimate may lose a digit tomorrow, but it could have been a lot worse, considering how bad the movie is.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus):  A $75K average at 4 theatres is great news.  The question for Focus now is how quickly to expand.  They're going to be hoping for some attention, especially for Gary Oldman, from the Golden Globe nominations this week.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount):  $40K average in 8 theatres is good, it's fine... but it's not quite what it should have been, for a movie with this accessible a sell.  If reviews can't drive audiences in the biggest cities, what's going to happen when it goes wide?  We'll find out soon enough, as next week's planned expansion is to 1000 houses.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1 (Summit):  4th weekend of $7.9M was virtually even with New Moon's, and it's on target to end up with a slightly lower total.  The difference:  because Summit had to renegotiate the actor deals on Breaking Dawn (because the original deals didn't allow for a 2-part finale), the budget was way higher this time, meaning that a slightly lower gross means much less profit.  Still, don't cry for Summit, they're doing just fine.

THE MUPPETS (Disney):  With Alvin & Those Chipmunks crawling into town on Friday, the family movie train is moving on, and its $7.1M weekend suggests the Muppets probably won't get near a $100M total.  The picture was made on a budget, but a franchise may not be in Disney's long-term plans.

HUGO (Paramount):  A 19% drop, when you've increased your theatre count by 30%, isn't encouraging.  And at 2600 theatres with a $2350 average, the release can't go too much wider.  Also not good:  Scorsese is picking up some directing honors, but Hugo didn't do too well in today's tally from the LA, Boston and NY Online critics.  (Although it was named to AFI's Top 10 list.)

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  Although at 876 theatres, it still has plenty of room to grow, the $5500 per-theatre average could come steeply down as the film adds locations.  The movie increased its count by 50% this weekend, and basically could only hold even for its weekend total.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Sony):  A really excellent drop of only 11% despite the loss of a few theatres, but with a $6.6M weekend, the movie is still going to struggle to get much past a total gross of $50M or so.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Held steady at 244 theatres, managing only a $3200 average.  Since it's categorized as a "Comedy" for Golden Globe purposes, this should be a happy week for the film.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  An $18K average at 16 theatres just isn't all that great.  However, it won both the Boston and NY Online awards today, with more love to come this week from the Globes, etc, so still very much at the start of its campaign.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  A $13K average at 21 also isn't great, but Shame is a much more challenging film to market.  Fassbender won in LA and was runner-up at NY Online, which is the kind of attention the film crucially needs.

A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics): No real awards gold yet, and the picture is holding at 4 locations, still doing a good $20K in each.

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope):  Critical adoration of Tilda Swinton won this $24K in one NY theatre.

Deadline has preliminary numbers for the Friday boxoffice, and if they hold, it looks to be a thoroughly terrible weekend for Hollywood.  NEW YEAR'S EVE appears to be under $6M for Friday, meaning a weekend of $15-17M, far below Mitch Metcalf's $25M projection.  Even with a longer playing period than Valentine's Day had last year, New Year's is unlikely to get anywhere near Valentine's $110M gross.  Even worse is Jonah Hill's THE SITTER, with a $3.5M Friday that may be under $9M for the weekend, again way below the $13.5M projection.

With New Year's Eve swiping chunks of its female audience, BREAKING DAWN PART 1 is headed for another 50+% decline.  The family movies, enjoying their final weekend without new competition, are faring better:  THE MUPPETS should fall around 40%, while ARTHUR CHRISTMAS has finally hit its stride now that it's too late to make much difference, down only around 10%.  HUGO and THE DESCENDANTS each added 40-50% more theatres to their counts, but didn't benefit much, as both declined from last Friday anyway and saw their per-theatre averages fall steeply.  

Early indications are that TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY should have a very strong per-theatre number in its limited opening, while YOUNG ADULT looks somewhat less impressive.  

The Hollywood Reporter has some early numbers for the weekend's overseas boxoffice.  (Remember:  comparisons of international boxoffice receipts aren't necessarily apples-to-apples, as films follow different distribution patterns with respect to number and size of markets.)  As in the US, BREAKING DAWN PART 1 is in the lead, with a projected $40M from 73 territories (that pretty much covers the entire world), bringing its overseas total to $341M.  It seems to be on track to match New Moon's $416M international gross.

PUSS IN BOOTS, now in 26 territories, grossed $23M for an $89M overseas total.  HAPPY FEET TWO, in 40 territories, made $16M, bringing it to $34M overseas.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS is now in 52 markets, and was only able to reach $11M for the weekend

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, which doesn't open in the US for 3 more weeks, is already trailing off in its international run, with $10M in 54 markets giving it an international total of $221M.

It's worth noting that IN TIME, the Justin Timberlake/Amanda Seyfried vehicle that could only struggle to $36M in the US, has already grossed an additional $83M overseas, turning a flop into a picture that should at least break even.  Similarly, the much more expensive REAL STEEL, a disappointing $83M grosser in the US, has more than doubled that to $176M overseas.  However, TOWER HEIST, not unusually for US comedies, isn't hitting the mark overseas--with only a few territories still to open, it has just $43M overseas compared to $71M domestically.

 

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Running $8M below New Moon at the parallel place in their runs, but with a slower rate of decline (at least until New Year's Eve opens next week).  New Moon earned another $41M after the post-Thanksgiving weekend to end up at $296M in the US; Breaking Dawn 1 could make another $45-50M, which would put it in the same place.

THE MUPPETS:  A disastrously bad second weekend, its 62% the worst decline of the Top 12.  It'll have one more weekend to control the family-film market before Alvin & the Chipmunks arrives, but unless international is strong (so far the film is in only 3 small markets outside the US), this isn't looking like sequel fodder.

HUGO:  So far the unorthodox strategy of starting with a mid-level number of theatres and gradually adding more as awards pour in--is working OK, with a relatively small 33% decline and a per-theatre number almost equal to Breaking Dawn 1's.  The question is how far it can be pushed as holiday movies continue to arrive, both for families and adults.  (And the bigger question is how the film's enormous production cost can ever be earned back, but that's the studio's problem.)

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Word of mouth is clearly good, with a 39% fall from last weekend, but the movie just has nowhere to go--it's already in 3376 theatres and has an anemic $2200 average.  Opening in the flood of family movies over Thanksgiving doomed this one (although holding it to do battle against Alvin wouldn't have worked any better).

THE DESCENDANTS:  Playing the platform release game of increasing theatre count each week so the weekend total stays high while per-theatre shrinks.  Its $9K average in 574  is around the same average Black Swan had, but in a wider release of 959 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  The Weinstein Company, as is its wont, is apparently going after other awards hopefuls with guns blazing, but they have zero to boast about:  Marilyn, with no awards help so far, has a flat $4800 average at 244 theatres (that average isn't much better than what Hugo is doing in more than 7x as many theatres, and it's far below Descendants' average in more than twice as many).

SHAME:  A good but not great $36K average in 10 theatres.

THE ARTIST:  Increased its theatres by 50% by adding 2 in San Francisco, and could only hold even with last weekend, leaving it with a $34K average in 6 that was lower than the NC-17 Shame's average in 10.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  J. EDGAR fell 52% and seems unlikely to get beyond $40M unless DiCaprio starts winning some awards.  Sony greatly expanded the runs of MONEYBALL, THE IDES OF MARCH and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS to keep them alive in awards season, and saw per-theatre numbers of $600-900.  MARGIN CALL continues to show real tenacity at the boxoffice with a mere 23% drop--it should get to $5M in US theatres, and that's on top of $2-3M in VOD revenues, very good numbers for a picture with a low budget and very little paid advertising.  LIKE CRAZY, THE SKIN I LIVE IN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE all seem likely to stall out at abour $3-3.5M unless they get some awards help.

No miracle turnarounds for this weekend's dismal boxoffice.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, despite a major decline from last weekend, will be in first place with $16-17M, followed by a disappointing 2d weekend for THE MUPPETS at $11M, with HUGO and ARTHUR CHRISTMAS hovering at around $7.5M (although Hugo is in far fewer theatres than the other 3).  THE DESCENDANTS will easily have the best per-theatre number (other than exclusive runs) with an $8-9K average in 574.

The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually brutal, and this year is no exception.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  The likely 60% drop from last weekend is as expected for this very front-loaded series.  Right now the film is running $9M below New Moon's 2009 total at the same point in its run, but Breaking Dawn 1 is losing steam a bit more slowly, so depending on how much damage New Year's Eve does next weekend, Breaking Dawn 1 may end up more or less in the same place--which is to say slightly below $300M.

THE MUPPETS:  This 60% drop is less welcome (last year Tangled, coming from a much higher Thanksgiving weekend, fell only 55% in its 2d weekend).  With just one more week of open space until Alvin & The Dreaded Chipmunks descend on the market, this may not be the stuff of franchises.

HUGO:  Paramount's unorthodox release strategy added more than 500 theatres this weekend, and the film and its director also received top honors from the National Board of Review.  The result is a much softer drop than its family-movie comrades, and a per-theatre number that will be right around Breaking Dawn 1's.  It's still far from clear that Hugo can maneuver its way to anything close to profitability, with a production cost reported at $150-170M plus that much again in marketing--but this is the path it would have to take to get there.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Sadly, the odd family movie out this season.  Its likely $50M US gross won't even pay for its marketing, much less the $100+ production cost.  Because of its specifically Christmas nature, the picture also won't be able to get any meaningful homevideo revenues until the 2012 holiday season, which will leave a lot of red ink on Sony's books for most of next year.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Increased its theatre count by another 30% to 574, so its weekend total won't be too far off last week.  The $8500 per-theatre average is good, but it's below the $8700 that Black Swan was doing last year when it reached 959 theatres.  What Descendants really needs is a better showing in the upcoming critics' lists and awards than it had last week, a la Natalie Portman's ride last year.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  Held at 244 theatres, and while its projected $4700 average isn't remarkable, it's relatively steady compared to the other post-holiday drops on the board.  A bigger potential problem is that Michelle Williams didn't win either of the Best Actress awards last week, and her success is the key to this film's.

OTHER HOLDOVERS:  In an attempt to get some pre-homevideo awards season energy going, Sony expanded both MONEYBALL and THE IDES OF MARCH back to around 1000 theatres.  Neither attracted much interest, and won't get above $500-600K for the weekend.  Other films in the market continued on their previous paths.

INDIES:  SHAME is headed for a $35-40K average in 10 theatres.  That number is very strong, but below the recent levels of other high-profile indies, including The Descendants' $41K average in 29 theatres and The Skin I Live In's $51K in 6.  Of course, some of that is attributable to Shame's NC-17 rating, but if the picture can't sell out houses in the biggest cities, that may not be a great sign for its future.  THE ARTIST increased from 4 to 6 theatres by adding San Francisco to its NY/LA runs, and its weekend average will be $30-35K. Considering that Artist, despite its silent-movie, black & white style, is far more accessible and easily likable than Shame--not to mention that Artist won this week's NY Film Critics Circle awards--that number is a little softer than one might have expected.  

Next weekend, NEW YEAR'S EVE will head straight for what's left of the Breaking Dawn 1 audience, while THE SITTER could make some quick money because there's nothing in the market right now remotely aimed for its R-rated comedy crowd.  The indie floodgates will also start to fall, with limited runs of award hopefuls TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, YOUNG ADULT and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, not to mention Madonna's W.E.--which technically is also an award hopeful, if the subject is costume or production design.

HUGO: The boxoffice story of the holiday was undoubtedly Martin Scorsese's quasi-family film.  While almost every other film of the day fell steeply or at best held around even, Hugo zoomed an astonishing 40%  This probably reflects to some extent the older audience for the picture, but The Descendants, which has a similar appeal, was only able to rise 7% on Thursday  In any case, it suggests Paramount does have something to build upon with Hugo, and while the film's cost still makes profitability an uphill climb, if they can get lucky and win some early critics' awards (the season kicks off with the NY Film Critics Circle on Tuesday), things may head in the right direction.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Another day with a lower number and more pronounced drop than New Moon had 2 years ago, making it even more likely that Breaking Dawn 1's boxoffice total will slump from its predecessors.

THE MUPPETS:  Although the numbers are lower, Muppets held better on Thanksgiving than Disney's Tangled did last Thanksgiving, with only a 10% drop, and should get close to $40M over the holiday.  Facing no new competition for the next couple of weeks, the picture should be a comfortable if not giant hit.

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  A 23% drop from Wednesday was no help to a picture that needs some.  Even if it can hold on in theatres for a while, it will still need some serious seasons greetings overseas.

HOLDOVERS:  HAPPY FEET TWO took another bad hit, down almost 30% for the day.  JACK AND JILL ran around even, while J. EDGAR, with its (much) older audience, went up a nice 18%, albeit from a number that was already low.

INDIES:  THE DESCENDANTS edged up a bit on Thursday and should get to $6-8M for the 5-day weekend.  That would mean a $10-15K per-theatre average Fri-Sun, solid but in need of some critic's awards help.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN debuted Wednesday at 123 theatres, a number that's doubling today.  For the Wed-Thurs period, the picture had about a $2500 per-theatre average (compared to $5K for Descendants, which is in 3x as many theatres), and that doesn't suggest much initial audience enthusiasm.  However, Marilyn's long-term future is entirely about Michelle Williams' success during awards season.  

The holiday movie season is not off to a roaring start.

BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  The giant franchise will of course win Thanksgiving weekend.  But its $12.5M Wednesday gross was down 12% from what New Moon did on the day before Thanksgiving in 2009, which suggests a 5-day weekend that might be at $58M rather than the $66M earned by New Moon.  That would leave Breaking Dawn 1 $14M below New Moon's post-Thanksgiving weekend total--a decline, of course, that in the context of a picture that will make over $250M is a high-class problem to have, but it still makes Twilight another franchise to see a decline in its US popularity in 2011.

THE MUPPETS' $6.6M on Wednesday guarantees it 2d place for the holiday weekend, but it's down almost 45% from what Tangled did in its opening day last year on the day before Thanksgiving.  (In fairness, Muppets also cost a fraction of Tangled's budget, so in terms of profitability it's still in fine shape.)

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, which happens to be thoroughly charming, is in a far worse place financially, with a woeful opening that seems headed for a $50M US toal.  That wouldn't even pay for its US marketing, much less its $100M+ production budget.  Also, it's a movie that naturally would gain appeal as we get closer to Christmas itself, but with these numbers Sony may have a very hard time holding on to theatres for that long.

HUGO, although it may also end up losing plenty of money, is in a somewhat different position.  Paramount is trying to play a two-fold strategy with it, launching in a medium-size 1277 theatre run, while hoping it can get some traction with adults (parents included) as critics' awards start to pour in at the beginning of December, enough to justify an expansion as the holiday season continues. It's a risky play, since competition for multiplex screens will only increase as wide releases continue to open next month--but it's pretty much the only move they have, since Hugo simply doesn't have a marketing hook that can pull in young audiences quickly.

HOLDOVERS:  No good news here.  HAPPY FEET TWO, facing much fiercer competition for the family crowd, crashed to a number more than 60% below what the original Happy Feet had made the day before Thanksgiving 2006.  Even if it overperforms overseas, as 3D animations tend to do, it'll have a hard time seeing any profit.  JACK AND JILL, J. EDGAR and the other underachievers showed little promise.

INDIES:  The big move of the day was Fox Searchlight's expansion of THE DESCENDANTS into 390 theatres.  where it made about $1M.  That should get it to $7-8M for the 5-day weekend.  These are solid but not huge numbers:  the film's $2500 per-theatre average yesterday was below Breaking Dawn 1's $3K, even though Descendants is in only 10% of the theatres.  No numbers in yet for the 123-theatre opening of MY WEEKEND WITH MARILYN, which will double on Friday, or the 4-theatre launch of A DANGEROUS METHOD.   THE ARTIST will also begin its run in 4 theatres on Friday, and LIKE CRAZY will expand again, to 150 theatres in total.

Next weekend there are no wide openings, as holiday shopping will begin in earnest.  Fox Searchlight will take advantage of the quiet to garner plenty of attention for its 9-theatre launch of the NC-17 SHAME, a movie that needs critical passion if it's to move beyond the arthouse circuit.

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Deadline has preliminary boxoffice figures for Wednesday, and there doesn't seem to be great news for anyone.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1 appears to be the easy winner for the day and probably for Thanksgiving weekend, but its $12.5M for Wednesday, if it holds, would be more than 10% off the parallel date for 2009's New Moon, and suggests that while unquestionably a giant hit, BD1 could be the lowest domestic grosser of the series since the original Twilight.

THE MUPPETS seems to be way ahead of the other openings of the day, with $7.5M (a $2100 per-theatre average) that could bring it to $40-45M for the holiday weekend.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS seems to be around $2.8M for Wednesday ($850 average), on its way to only $15-20M by Monday.  HUGO, in a smaller 1200 theatre run, is well behind with $1.6M for the day ($1250 average) and $8-10M for the long weekend.  

THE DESCENDANTS expanded to 390 theatres for the holiday, and is aiming at $1M for the day, a $2500 average that could give it a $5-8M weekend.  

Holdovers were none too impressive either, with HAPPY FEET TWO heading for an additional $15-20M for the holiday, and IMMORTALS and JACK AND JILL each looking at $10-12M over the 5 day holiday.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

Rio's domestic opening is a little soft, but the film has the advantage of facing no animated competition (aside from the minor Hoodwinked Too) until Kung Fu Panda 2 opens May 27. Plus it has its gangbuster foreign grosses to keep it warm.

There is a great horror movie boxoffice story this season... Insidious, which continues to have a remarkable audience hold. It's entirely possible that Insidious will end up outgrossing Scre4m when it's all over, which would be an astounding achievement.

Soul Surfer, Hanna and Arthur should all do around $6-7M in their 2d weekends, a good number for Surfer, OK for the others (which had larger debuts). Your Highness, as expected, is on the express train to homevideo.

Atlas Shrugged Part I, despite some of the worst reviews of the decade, should do around $8-9K per theatre at 300 (putting The Conspirator's theatre number in the shade), probably indicating concerted response to the marketing effort aimed at "tea party" groups and other presumed Ayn Rand fans. Updated numbers for Atlas Shrugged Click Here.

Next weekend the latest Tyler Perry should do his usual number, and the Robert Pattinson/Reese Witherspoon Water for Elephants is a big question mark until reviews start to appear. The week after that, Hollywood gets going in earnest (it hopes) with Fast Five.

Were the executives at Warner Bros so desperate to be in business with Russell Brand that they huddled together in a conference room one day, frantically going through their library titles in search of alcoholic lead roles he could play?  ("Days of Wine and Roses... a little dark.  Clean and Sober... no, that's coke--too edgy.  Who's Afraid of Virginia Wolff... not quite yet.")  The new remake of ARTHUR only exists because playing drunks is what Brand does; it's not as though they were going to make the picture with Lindsay Lohan if he turned it down (although that might have been a more interesting movie). 

Even in 1981, Arthur was an anachronism, a throwback to the screwball comedies of the Depression era in which very rich people often lost their dignity but never their wit.  It was an enormous hit--$95M in the US alone, and those were 1981 dollars--and was the only film written and directed by Steve Gordon, who died just a year later at the tragically young age of 43.  (He was long gone in 1988 when the dreadful sequel Arthur On the Rocks came and went.)   It provided Dudley Moore with his signature role and John Gielgud with a lifetime achievement Oscar, as well as winning another for the inescapable Christopher Cross song.  

Both the original and the remake tell the same basic story:  Arthur is a not-so-young man born to a huge family fortune; he's spent his entire life drinking and carousing, chronically irresponsible but also, at the core, utterly likable.  His family pushes him to marry an equally wealthy woman, and it's just then that he meets the poor girl of his dreams, forcing him finally to grow up.  In the new version, there are some notable gender switches:  the butler who's cared for Arthur all his life (Gielgud) is now a nanny (Helen Mirren), and the parent

None of these changes are necessarily damaging in Peter Baynham's script.  But comedy is a fragile thing, and under the direction of Jason Winer (a TV veteran whose credits include the terrific pilot for "Modern Family"), the new film doesn't capture the fizz or charm of the original.  In 1981, the comedy was founded on classic New York verbal wit, and marvelous supporting players showed up in practically every scene (when Arthur buys some flowers, the florist is Lou Jacobi).  The love of Arthur's life was Liza Minnelli's Linda, a fast-talker not above shoplifting; she's transformed into Greta Gerwig's Naomi, who's been made idealistic and salt-of-the-earth (the police cite her only because she gives unauthorized, sentimental tours of the city), draining her of all humor.  Gerwig deserves better:  she comes from the mumblecore school of improvisational film and was the best thing in Noah Baumbach's Greenberg; here she mostly looks puzzled.   Mirren is, as always, impeccable, and she has better chemistry with Brand than either Gerwig or Garner, but she isn't permitted to be the implacable snob that Gielgud was, and softening the character dulls the movie out.  Garner's been given a lot of not particularly funny broad humor (in an odd shift, the original Arthur loved horses, while here Garner forces a terrified Brand to ride with her), and Nick Nolte as her bullying father (Stephen Elliott in 1981) is close to embarrassing.

But of course Arthur is all about Arthur, and the film rests on that actor's back.  Dudley Moore's performance was dotted with lovely grace notes and superb physical comedy; the delicate way he balanced a glass of Scotch on a rounded car bumper and checked if it was safe is a lesson in off-hand balletics.  Brand is essentially doing a PG13 version of the same guy he played in Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Get Him To the Greek (he's in danger of turning into Foster Brooks), and even though he gets his laughs, there's not a single surprising moment in his performance.  Worse, we never believe in the soulful innocence of his Arthur underneath it all--he just seems cynical and flip.  Brand gives us the TMZ version of Arthur.

A great comic structure is no small thing, and Arthur is far from unpleasant to watch, particularly when Mirren and Brand play off one another.  It's a decent enough piece of studio entertainment.  This time, though, too much gets in the way between the moon and New York City. 

Warners is claiming that Sucker Punch cost around $80M, which given the scale of the film suggests either admirable cost-effectiveness or a lowball number--in any case, word of mouth is likely to be terrible (see my review, not to mention that its overall Rotten Tomatoes number is at 20%), so it's doubtful to get past red ink.

In Wimpy Kid 2, Fox has a modestly-budgeted franchise that should be able to crank out sequels for the next several years.

Lack of any new adult-skewing product helped Limitless (review) and Lincoln Lawyer (review) to solid holds.

In limited debuts, Miral is riding its controversy to around $17.5K in each of 4 theatres (review); Potiche

should do about $10K in each of 8 theatres (review); Peep World is headed for around $2K in each of 3 theatres (review); and White Irish Drinkers may do around $4K in each of 6 theatres. Meanwhile, Jane Eyre expanded to a very nice $10K or so in each of 90 theatres, and Win Win likewise should get to around $17.5K in each of 23 theatres (review). 

Next week doesn't bring much in the way of major openings: the thriller Source Code (Summit) with Jake Gyllenhaal, the Easter-timed animated Hop (Universal) with the voice of Russell Brand (preceding Brand's live-action Arthur by 1 week), and the haunted house thrill ride Insidious (FilmDistrict).  Also, for curiosity Weinstein Company will put its pre-DVD PG-13 version of The King's Speech into 1000 theatres.  Limited releases include the Foreign-Language Oscar winner In A Better World (Sony Classics) and the very violent comic-book parody Super (IFC).

--Mitch Salem