ABC: GCB (aka Good Christian Bitches, aka Good Christian Belles) had a very unimpressive debut, a 2.2 that was way below Pan Am's premiere in the fall. (In fairness, the DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES lead-in to Pan Am was a lot higher than last night's rating.) GCB wasn't able to win its hour, and considering that it was only 0.2 ahead of 3rd place CSI Miami, the likelihood is that once it settles into post-premiere numbers, it'll be in last place at 10PM. ABC was hoping this could be the show that inherits the 9PM Housewives slot next season, but the signs aren't good. Meanwhile, Housewives itself, as it nears the home stretch of its run (7 episodes left), was up a nice 0.3 from its pre-Oscar week airing. The queen of ABC's Sunday night, though, is ONCE UPON A TIME, with a terrific 3.4 that was more than a half-point higher than anything else on network TV last night. THE SKED SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
ABC: GCB (aka Good Christian Bitches, aka Good Christian Belles) had a very unimpressive debut, a 2.2 that was way below Pan Am's premiere in the fall. (In fairness, the DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES lead-in to Pan Am was a lot higher than last night's rating.) GCB wasn't able to win its hour, and considering that it was only 0.2 ahead of 3rd place CSI Miami, the likelihood is that once it settles into post-premiere numbers, it'll be in last place at 10PM. ABC was hoping this could be the show that inherits the 9PM Housewives slot next season, but the signs aren't good. Meanwhile, Housewives itself, as it nears the home stretch of its run (7 episodes left), was up a nice 0.3 from its pre-Oscar week airing. The queen of ABC's Sunday night, though, is ONCE UPON A TIME, with a terrific 3.4 that was more than a half-point higher than anything else on network TV last night. THE SKED @ PALEYFEST 2012: "Once Upon A Time"
Previous PaleyFest 2012 Columns:
COMMUNITY
The Sked: Upscale Ratings -- ABC Profile
Previously we examined the upscale ratings picture of the Monday at 10 pm hour, which showed the first few episodes of Smash as solidly upscale, Hawaii Five-0 as fairy downscale and Castle in the middle. Today we turn our attention to ABC's schedule, which is averaging a 2.4 rating with Adults 18-49 for its regularly scheduled programs this season to date. However, the regular schedule averages a 2.7 rating with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes. This translates to a 113 index (100=average and anything above 100 indicates an upscale skew overall), one of the highest concentrations of high-income viewers on network television.
ABC's schedule is paced by the most upscale program on TV, Modern Family with a 158 $100K+ index. But index only tells part of the story, as it simply measures concentration of high-income viewers. Modern Family is also toward the top of the ratings charts, ranked #5 with Adults 18-49 (5.6 rating season to date) and ranked even higher (#3) with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ income homes (8.8 rating season to date). This is important because other shows like NBC's 30 Rock have a very high index (152) but much lower absolute ratings levels (#87 and a 1.6 rating with young adults versus #55 and a 2.4 rating with upscale young adults). To make these distinctions clear, we divided all network programs into high, medium and low levels on two measures: upscale index and overall young adult rating. Modern Family is the perfect example of a show that fits into the high rating-high upscale index, a holy grail for advertisers since it reaches a large audience that is highly concentrated with upper income viewers.
High Rating-Upscale Shows. In addition to Modern Family, ABC has two other programs in this most desirable category: Grey's Anatomy (116 index) and Dancing with the Stars (110 index, just barely making the cut).
High Rating-Midscale Shows. Only one other ABC show is above the 3.2 rating level (our defintion for a high rating), freshman fantasy drama Once Upon a Time with an almost perfectly average 101 upscale index. Although its ratings could very well grow in its second and third seasons, chances are the 101 index will not change very much, given historical patterns.
Downscale Shows. ABC has no shows in the high rating-downscale category (as opposed to say, CBS -- the next post will show many of The Eye's crime dramas have high ratings but relatively few upper income viewers). In addition, ABC has relatively few programs in the other downscale categories (middle rating-downscale and low rating-downscale). Wipeout (89) and The River (87), as well as the now-cancelled Charlie's Angels (81) and Extreme Makeover Home Edition (76), are examples.
Low Rating Shows. ABC also has relatively few shows in the other low rating categories (low rating-midscale and low rating-upscale -- as opposed to NBC, which has more than its share of upscale-skewing programs with tiny audiences).
Middle Rating-Upscale Shows. By default, ABC has a disproportionate number of shows with middling ratings but a upscale skews. The Bachelor has a terrific upscale index (142), but it is on the downside of the ratings curve. In contrast, Happy Endings (139 index) and Revenge (130) have a high proportion of upper-income viewers could find themselves moving up to the high rated category with a little patience and luck. The same cannot be said of Pan Am (129 index): while its upscale skew remains strongly positive, the ratings are headed in the wrong direction and would be classified as a low rating show if we only looked at the last few months.
Finally, as the chart below shows, the once signature series Desperate Housewives (100 index) finds itself in the middle of the pack, undistinguished as a middle rating-midscale show. Nothing to be ashamed of, it's just showing its age as a show that has migrated from the upper right box, where it burst upon the scene. Last Man Standing (94 index) is starting its career in the middle box. In the absolute best case scenario, it might move up the chart (although I wouldn't bet on higher ratings in coming seasons). However, it has virtually no chance of moving to the right (more upscale in the future). Like Home Improvement, Last Man Standing will always be solidly midscale and probably should be very happy with a 94 index.
In the next post on upscale ratings we will turn to CBS, which is more concentrated in the upper left section of the chart (high rating but midscale to downscale).
THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
ABC: The network's female-oriented line-up is meant to survive football, but ABC has been shooting itself in the foot in recent weeks. Last night was the 2d time in 3 weeks that ONCE UPON A TIME was the only regular ABC scripted series to air on a Sunday night, and the odd scheduling is taking its toll. Serving as lead-in to a horribly rated rerun of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, the pivotal episode of Once dipped to a new season low for the third week in a row. It's probably lucky that the show is done with new episodes for the year, to return in January.The Sked: SUNDAY RATINGS December 11
A classic NFC match-up between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys generated a preliminary 8.5 Adult 18-49 rating in the fast nationals. We are estimating that the game rating (starting at 8:30 pm) will go up to a 9.3, tying the Dallas-Philadelphia game on October 30 and just behind the 10.0 rating on September 18 for Philadelphia-Atlanta in the second week of the NFL season.
NBC Sun 9.11 9.18 9.25 10.2 10.9 1016 1023 1030 11.6 1113 1120 1127 12.4 1211
CBS enjoyed an up Sunday, thanks to a 4:15 pm NFL game which spilled into prime time (almost to 7:45 pm). The NFL coverage scored a 5.2 rating from 7:00-7:30 in the fast nationals, and CBS rated a 3.9 in the 7:30-8:00 half hour which was half NFL and half the first quarter of 60 Minutes in most of the country. The program ratings below are adjusted fast nationals for each series, which started at 41 minutes past each scheduled time.
CBS Sun 9.25 10.2 10.9 1016 1023 1030 11.6 1113 1120 1127 12.4 1211
Good Wi 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 -- 1.9 2.3*
CSI Mia 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 -- 2.1 2.0*
Allen Gr--- --- --- --- --- 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.5 2.4 ---
Family G4.1 3.5 --- --- --- 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.6 3.1*
Once Upon-- --- --- --- 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 -- 3.4 3.2 2.9*
Pan Am 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 -- -- 1.5 --
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THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
THE SKED'S SUNDAY NETWORK SCORECARD
ABC: ONCE UPON A TIME is a bona fide, self-starting hit, with another 3.8 that more than doubled its lead-in (and also more than doubled the similarly-themed Grimm on Fridays). This may have helped DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES and PAN AM a bit, since were both were slightly up. However, those 2 shows won't be airing again for 3 weeks (preempted by the American Music Awards and a Mitch Albom TV movie), and that's always dangerous. The promos for the next Pan Am are already putting into play the old "The Episode That Will Change Everything" gambit for December 4, in the hope of garnering some interest. (On a somewhat related note, anyone with access to Showtime should be watching HOMELAND, whether in its initial Sunday 10PM run or otherwise, because it's the best drama on television right now.) THE SKED: Sunday Network Scorecard
The Sked: SUNDAY RATINGS November 6 & Sweep Update
Last night, NBC won the night, as usual, with Sunday Night Football. NBC is averaging about a 7.1 Adult 18-49 Sunday from 7:30-11:00 (remember the 7:00 half hour does not air national commercials and is not rated) and the number will probably rise to a 7.8 in the official nationals, well above the 6.2 official rating for NBC in prime time on this night last year. With the 4:15 pm NFL game as a lead in, FOX Sunday is averaging a 4.6 rating in prime time last night, up from a 2.8 last year. ABC scored a 2.4 last night, down from a 2.7 this night last year despite the continued success of Once Upon a Time. CBS averaged a fourth-place 2.2 last night, down from a 5.4 this night last year when it had the late afternoon NFL game. Program detail follows.
NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
2011 vs 2010 Through Day 11 of 28
2011 2010
FOX 3.7 2.9 +30%
CBS 3.0 2.7 + 9%
ABC 2.2 2.4 - 9%
NBC 2.6 2.5 + 4%
NBC's coverage of the game itself from 8:15 pm on (Baltimore at Pittsburgh) averaged a 7.9 rating in the fast nationals, a number we expect to go up to an 8.5 in the official nationals. Last year's game on 11.7.2010 did a 7.4 rating. In the next two weeks, NBC needs to beat an 8.1 game on 11.14.2010 and 8.8 on 11.21.2010 to cover the continued weakness on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, most of Friday and Saturday.
Despite a huge lead in at 7:00-8:00 (a 9.6 preliminary rating for late afternoon NFL action from 7:00-7:30 and a 6.4 from 7:30-8:00 for more football action and The OT), FOX's animated comedies were down from last week. The Simpsons could not maintain the "Treehouse of Horror" level and Allen Gregory stumbled almost down to a 2.0 rating. .
Allen Gregory --- --- --- --- --- 2.4 2.1*
Family Guy 4.1 3.5 --- --- --- 3.2 3.0*
CBS was back to its level two weeks ago, when the network did not have the late afternoon football game and its schedule started on time at 7:00 pm. A fairly normal evening, given the circumstances, and definitely not anything to brag about.
Good Wife 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1*
CSI Miami 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9*
Once Upon a Time rated a 3.7 in the fast nationals, a number that will most likely rise to a 3.8 in the official nationals. Either way, to be within three tenths of a rating point of a 4.0 premiere in week three is a great achievement for a serialized drama. Along with Grimm on Friday, Once Upon is delivering the "Calgon, take me away" moments that viewers want in these times. However, ABC certainly wishes it could spread the magic to 9-11 pm. While Once Upon a Time's 3.7 improved the 8 pm hour from a 2.5 for Extreme Makeover Home Edition on this night last year, the 9 pm hour of Desperate Housewives has been wrecked (from a 4.1 this night last year to a 2.8), and 10 pm has gone from a 2.5 for Brothers & Sisters last year to a 1.8 for Pan Am.
Once Upon a Time --- --- --- --- 4.0 3.9 3.7*
Pan Am 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8*
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THE SKED:: ABC Hands Out Halloween Candy Corn Pick-Ups
THE SKED: Sunday Ratings - Network Scorecard
The Sked: SUNDAY RATINGS October 30 & Sweep Update
A very good night for network television last night as three of four broadcast networks were up substantially over this night last year. NBC averaged a 6.7 Adult 18-49 rating in the fast nationals Sunday night, and we are giving that a preliminary official national adjustment up to a 7.5 rating (well over the 6.0 official national rating for last year). CBS had the NFL late afternoon game over-run and took full advantage of it with the 60 Minutes interview of Bernie Madoff's wife and son. CBS averaged a 3.7 rating for the night (up from a 2.4 last year). With Once Upon a Time working well, ABC averaged a 2.5 for the night (up from 2.2 last year). FOX was the only down network, averaging a 2.7 last night (compared to a 5.3 last year with the late afternoon NFL game and the World Series). Updated sweep standings follow. Note that NBC is in second place four nights in, but the best time to judge relative placement of the networks is 7 nights and 14 nights into the sweep period.
NOVEMBER SWEEP SCORECARD
2011 vs 2010 Through Day 4 of 28
2011 2010
FOX 4.9 3.8 +30%
CBS 2.3 2.2 + 6%
ABC 2.2 2.3 - 4%
NBC 3.1 2.7 +13%
ABC had a very good rating from week two of Once Upon a Time (3.9 fast national rating, compared to a 4.0 premiere last week). Desperate Housewives (3.1) and Pan Am (1.9) were each up a tenth of a rating point from last week.
CBS enjoyed a 9.1 rating from 7:00-7:30 (New England at Pittsburgh), and 60 Minutes (airing 30 minutes late) averaged a 4.2 rating. The show was very well programmed with two segments featuring Bernie Madoff's estranged wife and son and a segment about a Boston University linebacker's battle with cancer. Amazing Race did a solid 2.9, while Good Wife and CSI Miami drifted down to a 2.0 each.
NBC's football game (Dallas at Philadelphia) featured great markets and teams but a horribly lopsided game. But the play on the field mattered less than the teams involved or the point spread that had to be covered: the game portion of NBC's night averaged an 8.2 in the fast nationals, which is certain to go up to a high-8 at the very least. Last year's football game on this night averaged a 7.3 in the official nationals.
FOX's "Animation Domination" tagline really only applies to the 8:00 half hour last night. The Simpsons "Treehouse of Horror" turned in a solid 4.0 rating, while Allen Gregory premiered immediately following at only a 2.4. Family Guy bounced back to a 3.2 (good but not great for it), and Cleveland Show finished the night with a soft 2.3.
THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "Once Upon A Time"
THE SKED; Sunday Ratings - Network Scorecard
ABC: And that network was ABC. ONCE UPON A TIME launched beautifully against male-skewing football and baseball, and was actually within hailing distance of the first half hour of the World Series and Sunday Night Football at 8:30PM (admittedly a wicked witch had cursed the football game, but we'll get to that). Next week the competition gets a lot tougher with the traditionally very strong "Treehosue of Horror" episode of The Simpsons, but for now it's a tremendous success story. Once Upon A Time even lifted the leaky boat of DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES to a more tolerable level, although it couldn't do anything for PAN AM, which won't last forever with its current sub-2 rating.The Sked: SUNDAY RATINGS October 23
ABC premiered Once Upon a Time last night with great success, a 3.9 Adult 18-49 rating, building impressively off a 1.5 rating lead-in from America's Funniest Home Videos. Viewers liked what they saw in the pilot as audience built throughout the show: 8:00-8:30 (3.8 rating) and 8:30-9:00 (4.0). The fairy tale-dual universe drama was also the highest rated entertainment show on the night, followed by Desperate Housewives (3.0) and Amazing Race (2.7). We'll see if the audience sticks with this series over the next few weeks, but give ABC credit for opening the show.
- World Series Game1 Game2 Game3 Game4
- 18-49 Rating Wed Thu Sat Sun
- 2007 BOS-COL 5.8 5.3 4.3 7.1
- 2008 PHI-TAM 4.8 4.0 3.2 5.1
- 2009 NYY-PHI 6.3 5.8 4.7 7.8
- 2010 SFG-TEX 4.7 4.0 2.9 4.3
- 2011 TEX-STL 4.2 4.0 3.5* 4.4* *est. official rating
With the Texas victory last night (creating a 2-2 series tie after four games), the chance of a Game 7 Thursday has zoomed to 69% (based on the 39 past World Series tied 2-2). Only with a Game 7 will Major League Baseball -- and FOX -- see ratings worthy of major sports championship.
Updated season to date averages to come.
THE SKED PILOT REPORT: ABC's "Once Upon A Time" - PREMIERING TONIGHT
ABC's ONCE UPON A TIME certainly gets points for originality. When other shows talk about their "mythology," they mean a general set of rules for some overarching story structure, but this show means business. Pay attention, there'll be a quiz: the tale by Edward Kitsis and Adam Horowitz (of Lost) begins in a fairy tale kingdom, where Snow White and Prince Charming are about to be married; the kingdom also includes such characters as Rumplestiltskin, Little Red Riding Hood and her Grandmother, Geppetto and Pinochio, etc. Before the wedding can happen, though, the local Evil Queen storms in to announce that she's placing a horrible curse on the kingdom... and we're suddenly in modern day New England. Where we meet the show's actual heroine, Emma Swan (Jennifer Morrison), a bounty hunter confronted on her birthday by Henry, the son she gave up for adoption 10 years earlier.
Emma wants no part of this, and drives Henry back to his home in Storybrooke, Maine, and his adoptive mother, who turns out to be Regina (Lana Parrilla), the town's Mayor. Along the way, Henry tells Emma that in fact Regina is the Evil Queen of the stories, and the entire town of Storybrooke consists of fairy tale characters living under her curse, which has placed them into stultifyingly ordinary lives, completely unaware of their magical selves. So Snow White is now a schoolteacher (Ginnifer Goodwin), Rumplestiltskin is a greedy landlord (Robert Carlyle), and so on. But wait, there's more: Emma herself is the daughter of Snow White and the Prince, sent away to the "real" world to escape the catasrophe, and destined to battle the Queen and end the curse. Emma is understandably skeptical about this, but once she meets Regina, it's clear enough that she's an evil something, so Emma will be hanging around in Storybrooke for Henry's sake (and, along the way, presumably fight for the soul of the town).
Got it? Now, here's the problem with trying to judge Once Upon A Time as a continuing series: half the pilot is set in fairy tale land, with opulent sets and special effects, but by the end of the hour, the Queen's curse has taken effect and that kingdom no longer exists, which--I assume--means that the show itself won't have the dual-world structure that's enlivened Fringe, but will basically take place in the modern day town of Storybrooke. So the characters will be, along with Emma and Henry, ordinary people like the Mayor, the schoolteacher, the landlord, etc. We get very little sense of what that show will look like in the pilot, but shorn of its fantastic elements, it may not be much more than a small town soap opera with a bitchy villainess and a plucky heroine, plus some fanciful underpinnings.
Viewed as a self-contained hour of television, the Once Upon A Time pilot is interesting, but thin. Morrison and Parrilla deliver their good and bad girl personas in roles that, as written, don't seem to be designed for any kind of psychological complexity. The very appealing Goodwin, in her modern day scenes, is blandly nice (she gets more to do while she's still Snow White), and the only character to really make an impression is Rumplestiltskin, who's apparently as nasty in 2011 as he was back in the day. Mark Mylod's direction is most impressive in the fairy tale scenes; the modern day sequences that seem to be the real basis for the show are less notable.
It's hard to discern what the intended audience is for Once Upon A Time: although it will air at 8PM and features fairy tale motifs, it's not a kid's show. and without the characters knowing they're magical and doing fantastic things, it's not going to attract geeks. Paired as it is with Desperate Housewives and Pan Am on the night, it's probably aimed at women, but other than the fact that the antagonists are female, there's not much to attract them (certainly it's not on a level with Vampire Diaries or True Blood, two supernatural fantasies built on female fans). The show will be airing against Amazing Race, The Simpsons and (NBC hopes) football, and Mitch Metcalf's projections have it mired behind them all. Without any clear constituency, Once Upon A Time seems ill-placed to find its happily ever after.







