Movie Box Review

Put ABC's Suburgatory in the conditional win column, while Revenge is on a watch list to see where it settles.  FOX's The X Factor suffered a decline in week two, but the Simon Cowell performance show still powered FOX to a victory on the second Wednesday of the season.  CBS was down a bit at 9 pm, but otherwise fairly stable.  The bleeding continues at NBC.

Two and a Half Men premiered with a 10.3 Adult 18-49 rating, about equal to a good Sunday Night Football game but not at the level of an AFC Championship game, as CBS head Les Moonves boldly predicted.  Nonetheless, this is a great number to welcome Ashton Kutcher to the show.  Can the show maintain this level for the season?  Of course, not.  We estimate Two and a Half Men will settle into a high-5 rating next week and a high-4 in subsequent weeks, still well above our projected rating for the quarter. 

The news is not good for NBC.  Both The Sing-Off and Playboy Club were under a 2 rating and below our meager forecast for the entire quarter.  The Sing-Off was a moderate success in December (against mostly repeat competition), but it just couldn't stand up to real competition of season premieres.  And Playboy Club looks DOA, a 1.6 demo rating and only 5 million viewers 2+ (Castle attracted over 13 million viewers on ABC in the time period and Hawaii Five-O had 12 million).  In all probability, the NBC numbers will remain the same in coming weeks or drift down slightly.



2 Broke Girls is off to a terrific start with a 7 demo rating.  It should go down a high-3 rating next week in its normal 8:30 time period, but a low-4 rating is not impossible.On ABC, Dancing with the Stars opened about where we expected, while Castle continue to impress (only one-tenth of a rating point behind time period leader Hawaii Five-O).  ABC's patience with Castle is admirable, and the show has slowly and increasingly taken good advantage of its Dancing lead-in.

MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating      
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing        3.7   3.6   3.9
 900 Dancing        4.4   4.2   3.9
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6   3.3
CBS
 800 How I Met      3.3   3.3   4.9
 830 2 Broke Girls  3.0   3.2   7.0 (special 9:30 time)
 900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2   10.3
 930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6   9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O  2.7   2.7   3.4
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3   1.9
 900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5   1.8
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1   1.6
FOX
 800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5   9/26
 900 House          3.4   3.3   10/3
CW
 800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a   9/26
 900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a   9/26

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out. 

NBC's Parenthood premiered last night to a 2.3 Adult 18-49 rating in the fast nationals.  This is down 36% from the America's Got Talent lead-in and down 15% from last season's premiere episode.  The 2.3 is right at our projected program average for originals this Fall.

Over at the mini-network The CW, 90210 returned to the schedule with a 0.8 rating, down 11% from last season's debut episode.  Ringer, starring Sarah Michelle Gellar, rose a very good 50% from the 90210 lead-in to a 1.2 rating and matched the Hellcats premiere last season but was 14% lower than the Nikita premiere last season.  Program comparisons courtesy tvbythenumbers.com. 

Click "read more" to see the updated TUESDAY tracking chart.

   



TUESDAY FALL 2011   Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Last Man Stand 2.7   2.4   10/11
 830 Man Up         2.3   2.1   10/18
 900 Dancing        3.2   3.1
1000 Body of Proof  2.4   2.4   9/20 
CBS
 800 NCIS           3.9   3.9   9/20
 900 NCIS LA        3.5   3.5   9/20
1000 Unforgettable  2.8   2.8   9/20
NBC
 800 Biggest Loser  2.3   2.3   9/20
 900 Biggest Loser  2.7   2.7   9/20
1000 Parenthood     2.2   2.3   2.3
FOX
 800 Glee           4.1   4.0   9/20  
 830 New Girl       2.9   2.8   9/20
 900 Raising Hope   2.7   2.6   9/20
CW
 800 90210          n/a   n/a   0.8
 900 Ringer         n/a   n/a   1.2

In one week, the curtain goes up on the new television season.  To get you ready for the madness of Premiere Week on broadcast television, we have summarized the ShowBuzzDaily ratings estimates for MONDAYS this Fall.  The first column in the chart below includes the original estimates from late May (after the network upfront presentations to advertisers), while the second column includes some tweaks we have made based on the quality of the pilot, our sense of how the series will hold up over time, and reaction to on-air promotion and marketing over the summer.



The main change in our estimates for Monday nights is the reduction of the expected rating for ABC's Dancing with the Stars.  Reaction to the casting for this cycle has been rather muted.  While we don't expect ratings to crash, the overall numbers should be down a touch.  Most of the lost audience ends up on The Sing-Off on NBC according to our estimates, although the NBC numbers remain soft.  We have raised the estimates for most of the CBS comedies given the extra attention the addition of Ashton Kutcher has received for Two and a Half Men, as well as the strong promotion for 2 Broke Girls.  On FOX, we have reduced the ratings estimate for Terra Nova.  While we continue to think the time-traveling, prehistoric family drama will open well, we continue to feel the series is vulnerable and unsustainable.

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out. 


MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing        3.7   3.6
 900 Dancing        4.4   4.2  
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6  
CBS
 800 How I Met      3.3   3.3
 830 2 Broke Girls  3.0   3.2
 900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2
 930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O  2.7   2.7
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3
 900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1
FOX
 800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5
 900 House          3.4   3.3
CW
 800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a
 900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a


Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:

With network on-air promotion activity tracked in hit summer shows (those near or above a 2.0 Adult 18-49 rating) for about seven weeks since mid-July, the networks' promotional priorities are summarized below.


CBS has given a healthy dose of on-air promotion time to Person of Interest inside the past few installments of Big Brother (which is really starting to hit its ratings stride).  Person is now the #1 new show priority for CBS, passing Unforgettable during the past week.  The other CBS new shows received very little attention last week, except for brief mentions within generic fall schedule promos or nightly line-up spots.  Inside these more generic promos, CBS is using footage of cast members dancing and acting looking silly -- kind of a throwback technique reminiscent of the 1970s and 80s when stars would gather and even sing fall theme songs ("ABC is the place!" or "Come Home to NBC!").  Also, this is the time of year that second- or third-tier new show priorities start to disappear altogether, as more promotion time is allocated to premieres of returning series, to new time periods, or to new cast members (such as Ted Danson on CSI or that new guy on Two and a Half Men).    




At ABC, the push for Revenge is just incredible.  The promo time for The Hamptons soap is now almost double the level for the #2 priority (Charlie's Angels).  ABC marketing is now in a tough spot.  If Revenge works, the department will be questioned about over-saturating the air with spots, reducing the likelihood of other shows working well.  Believe me, in such a scenario a simple thank you or job well done is rarely in the cards for those who toil making promos and ads.  In a success scenario, all credit will go to the show and those who developed it.  In contrast, if Revenge fails, the target will be the creative approach of the campaign (which has barely changed all summer).  And why, internal critics will ask, did you over-saturate the air with all those same lousy spots?  In a failure situation, the quality of the show will rarely come up as a reason. 


At FOX and NBC, X-Factor and Up All Night remain the big bets.  Also on NBC there has been a big surge in activity for The Sing-Off, including a 90 second promo inside Tuesday's America's Got Talent.  A full minute and a half.  This often means a show is not tracking well in the weekly Awareness and Intention to View survey, or it can mean the network is feeling generous toward the producers.  In any case, America is in love with singing shows, and it will be fun to watch how X-Factor and Sing-Off fare in just a few weeks.  By the way, starting Monday (September 12), we will review our ratings predictions for each time period and point out any last-minute adjustments we want to make.