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Showing posts with label Contagion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Contagion. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: THE HONORABLE MENTIONS



It's actually harder to come up with a manageable list of Honorable Mention movies than a Top 10, because there are so many films that are eminently worth seeking out and seeing, but perhaps a little bit flawed--sometimes too thin, sometimes too audacious for their own good.  It wouldn't have been much of a stretch to add 10 more to the very worthy titles listed (in alphabetical order) below:

50/50:  Writer Will Reiser turned his own serious experience with cancer into a satisfying, perceptive comedy-drama, with earned laughs and a minimum of sentimentality.  Terrific performances by Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Seth Rogen (playing a version of himself--a friend of Reiser's, he was also one of the film's producers), Anna Kendrick and Bryce Dallas Howard, and unmannered, self-effacing direction by Jonathan Levine.

BEGINNERS:  Mike Mills' semi-autobiographical tale of a man (Ewan McGregor) whose elderly dad (Christopher Plummer) comes out of the closet after decades of marriage and is then stricken with cancer was quirky (the subtitled dog) but also grounded in real emotion, and a seamless exercise in jumping between timeframes and moods.  Plummer deserves all the year-end honors he's getting, and McGregor and Melanie Laurent, as the new love in his life, were splendid.

BELLFLOWER:  The craziest, most exciting writing/directing debut of the year, Evan Glodell's fantasia was about pop culture, apocalyptic fantasy, doomed romance and fatal friendships.  It was all too much and too strange and sometimes miraculously brilliant.

CERTIFIED COPY:  A writer (William Shimell) meets a fan (Juliette Binoche), she takes him sightseeing, and as a lark they pretend to be a longtime couple--or was the pretense that they just met?  Abbas Kiarostami's exploration of shifting identities and realities is utterly different from the neorealist stories of his native Iran that made his reputation, an eloquent and probably unsolvable intellectual game.


CONTAGION:  The good news is that just when Steven Soderbergh seems to near his deadline for early retirement, he adds another project to his list.  Contagion was the scariest movie of 2011, a matter-of-fact, all too believable piece of fiction about a random virus that kills millions of people in mere weeks.  Even an uneven script (the Jude Law and Marion Cotillard episodes didn't work) and an all-star cast couldn't minimize the creepiness of the film's flawless semi-documentary execution.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Not as insightful or accomplished as its fans claim, but still a very good movie.  Alexander Payne's comedy-drama sacrifices believability for the star power of George Clooney and some easy gags, and it bogs down in a predictable, banal subplot.  The dialogue and performances, though, are mostly quite fine.

THE DOUBLE HOUR:  A couple meet at a speed dating night, and robbery and murder ensue.  But is that really what's going on?  Giuseppe Capotondi's romantic thriller was the twistiest, trickiest dazzler of the year, and one that mixed genuine emotion with its structural gamesmanship.  

DRIVE:  Nicolas Winding Refn's thriller was spectacularly well shot and edited, beautifully performed by a cast that included Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Bryan Cranston and especially the career-redefining Albert Brooks, and about absolutely nothing but its own devotion to the subgenre of 1970s moody action films.  As pastiches go, though, it was far less vapid than Super 8 or ponderous than War Horse.   

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2):  A worthy conclusion to the best franchise of the decade.  Not quite the jewel that chapters 3 and 4 were, but director David Yates, screenwriter Steve Kloves and the gigantic cast do J.K. Rowling's spectacular finale proud.

HIGHER GROUND:  A genuine rarity:  Vera Farmiga's directing debut, written by Carolyn S. Briggs and Tim Metcalfe, is a truly serious American movie about religion, its comforts and limitations.  Farmiga's performance was of course luminous, and she proved herself a strong, intelligent director of other actors (including Joshua Leonard, Dagmara Dominczyk, John Hawkes, and her own sister Taissa Farmiga) and exceptionally challenging material.

HUGO: Martin Scorsese isn't Ernst Lubitsch, and the portions where he tried to achieve that kind of effortless light touch were weak.  But the last section of the film, with its heartfelt salute to Georges Melies, one of the founders of cinema, and Scorsese's superbly crafted embrace of the latest in 3D technology (much in Melies's spirit) were exhilarating.

LIKE CRAZY:  Drake Doremus's highly improvised film owed a huge amount to its stars Anton Yelchin and Felicity Jones (and in a smaller role, Jennifer Lawrence), but its beautifully captured tone of fragile and desperate young love was its own.

MARGARET:  Kenneth Lonergan's cursed, long-delayed, still-not-finished post-9/11 drama doesn't hang together, and we may never know if it possibly could have (unless Fox Searchlight sets it free for a Criterion homevideo release).  It's tantalizingly close to brilliance, though, a narrowly-etched epic about teen idealism, selfishness, guilt and narcissism as embodied in Anna Paquin's remarkable performance, and the deeply troubled adults who surround her.

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE:  Elizabeth Olsen gave one of the year's truly breathtaking performances as a cult escapee, but no one went to see Sean Durkin's troubling, difficult, constantly-shifting drama.  John Hawkes' work as the cult's leader was even more frightening than his Oscar-nominated role in Winter's Bone


MELANCHOLIA:  The first half of big-mouth Lars Von Trier's epic was excellent dark comedy about a truly terrible wedding, sparked by a lovely performance by Kirsten Dunst.  The second was a moody end-of-the-world saga that partook a bit too much of European art film cliches.

A SEPARATION:  Asghar Farhadi's brilliant Iranian drama is the story of a collapsing marriage, class struggle, religion, the impossibility of true justice, and ever-so-subtly, that country's contemporary politics.  It's a deeply human story that manages to be incisive, emotionally complicated and a window on a very alien culture all at once.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY:  Fitting John LeCarre's legendarily complicated story into 2 hours was a Rubik's cube of a challenge, and Tomas Alfredson's film, written by Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughn, pulled it off--the only drawback was that having managed that feat, there was little room for the depth and nuance that made the novel and BBC dramatization into classics.  Gary Oldman, almost but not quite eclipsing the memory of Alec Guinness, headed a great British cast,

THE TREE OF LIFE:  Ah, Terence Malick!  Gorgeous, fabulously realized images of a Texas childhood, brilliantly performed by Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain and Hunter McCracken-- mixed with incredibly pretentious, flat-footed footage of dinosaurs, the formation of planets, and Sean Penn looking glum.  The year's most starkly mixed bag.

TYRANNOSAUR:  Nobody's idea of a fun night out at the movies, but Paddy Considine's directing debut, a paean to human misery and the search for love, featured towering performances by Peter Mullan, Olivia Colman and Eddie Marsan.

X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS:  Matthew Vaughn's prequel was itself the class of this year's superhero movies, a daring mix of CG magic and the Cuban Missile Crisis that was hurt only by Kevin Bacon and January Jones's lackluster villainy.  The exceptional cast included James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Rose Byrne and Nicholas Hoult.

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice


Deadline has some early updated weekend numbers, and there are no major surprises from the Friday results.  The top 3 are DOLPHIN TALE, MONEYBALL and THE LION KING with $14M, $12M and $11M respectively, with the family pictures garnering the benefit of stepped-up Saturday matinee business.  


After that, 3 new titles--50/50, COURAGEOUS and DREAM HOUSE--are bunched together between $8.7-9M, meaning their actual rank won't be clear until Monday's actuals are annonced.  Courageous was the most front-loaded with Friday business, which is no surprise given the nature of its appeal, nor is the fact that 50/50 had strong word of mouth on its second day; what's odd is that Dream House seems to have also done well on Saturday, despite how bad it is.

In the third echelon, holdovers ABDUCTION, CONTAGION and KILLER ELITE, as well as the new WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? are all between $4.8-5.7M, representing indifferent holds for Abduction and Killer Elite, nice continued business for Contagion, and a wretched start for the Anna Faris vehicle.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for more detailed numbers and analysis as additional boxoffice figures become available.

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THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 24


MONEYBALL's debut looks to be in line with the opening weekend of The Social Network ($22.4M) just about a year ago.  That movie rode the Oscar race to a $97M gross.  Moneyball is more likable but less incisive than Network, and while it's going to be part of the Oscar conversation, it's less likely to be a frontrunner; we'll see if it can build as well on its opening.

Disney is supposed to withdraw THE LION KING from circulation on Thursday, because its new blu-ray of the picture goes on sale the following Tuesday.  But will they really leave millions on the table in additional boxoffice by sticking to the plan?


DOLPHIN TALE's opening day is about 12% better than the one Warners had with Legend of the Guardian, their 3D family movie on the same weekend last year.  If that comparison holds, it would give Dolphin around $18M for the weekend and an ultimate gross in the mid $60Ms.  

The Taylor Lautner spin machine is strong enough to operate power grids in 3 states, but the fact is that a $10M opening weekend doesn't justify a big-time movie star salary.  At best, Lautner is a lap behind Jason Statham's level:  KILLER ELITE looks to open at the lower-end of Statham's wheelhouse, with a $10M opening that compares to the $11M he had with The Mechanic and $12M with Transporter 3 and Death Race

Among holdovers, DRIVE, CONTAGION and (of course) THE HELP held well, while I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT and STRAW DOGS didn't.  And THE DEBT now seems like it won't get past $32M, not quite at the level of The Constant Gardener ($33.5M) or The American ($35M).

In limited release, MACHINE GUN PREACHER should do around $9K in each of 4 theatres, but that number is hyped by Q&A sessions with the stars, so it may be misleading.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS September 23-25

This weekend is looking unusually strong for late September: the top 12 films should gross over $100 million, about 14% above a normal weekend this time of year.  The strong 3D reissue of The Lion King should remain at #1 with close to $20 million and a very family-friendly, small second weekend decline.  Challenging Lion King for the top spot will be Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill in Moneyball, based on Michael Lewis' terrific book about the unorthodox methods the cash-strapped Oakland A's used in the 1980s and '90s to be competitive in baseball.  Not far behind, the family film Dolphin Tale should boost business this weekend.  Two action thrillers round out the new offerings, but don't expect them to be in the mix at the top of the weekend chart.  

Opening at more than 2,900 theaters in North America by Sony, Moneyball should average a solid though not especially strong $6,300 per theater (for $18 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Moneyball has received strong reviews, with 92% positive at RottenTomatoes.  This film should be on track for around $65 million in North America when it leaves theaters, although there is some upside in that number if word spreads among baseball fans.  Read Mitch Salem's review of Moneyball.


At about 3,200 theaters, Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers should average $4,600 per theater (for $15 million this weekend).  Another film with strong reviews so far, Dolphin Tale is 94% positive at RottenTomatoes (especially surprising for a family film).  This movie is probably headed for around $75 million domestically. 

Opening at 3,000 theaters from Lionsgate, Abduction should average a weak $4,300 from Friday-Sunday (for a $13 million opening weekend).  Early reviews are devastating (Twilight's Taylor Lautner taking the majority of the criticism), with 0% positive from a small initial sample size.  Abduction is on track for maybe $25 million in North America.     

Finally, opening at 2,700 theaters from Open Road, Killer Elite should average a soft $3,700 from Friday-Sunday (for an $10 million opening weekend).  Early reviews are mixed to negative, with 42% positive.  The Jason Statham-Clive Owen-Robert De Niro film is on track for $25 million or so in North America.     

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
September 23-25                  Positive   Weekend   Total*

Moneyball              Sony  PG13   92%      $ 18.0    $ 65 
Dolphin Tale             WB  PG     94%      $ 15.0    $ 75
Abduction                LG  PG13    0%      $ 13.0    $ 25 
Killer Elite       OpenRoad  R      42%      $ 10.0    $ 25

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Lion King in 3D should decline a very good 35%, while Contagion continues its solid run with a 40% decline.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
September 23-25                 vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Lion King 3D           Dis        -35%      $19.5     $120
Contagion               WB        -40%      $ 9.0     $ 85
Drive              FilmDis        -43%      $ 6.5     $ 45
The Help            Dis/DW        -28%      $ 5.0     $171
Straw Dogs            Sony        -54%      $ 2.5     $ 15 
I Don't Know How She  Wein        -49%      $ 2.0     $  9


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $84 million total, ranking 47th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $91 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $83 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a strong $104 million, up about 14% from this weekend last year.       


This Weekend Last Two Years



9/24/10

 Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps FOX PG13 Michael Douglas Shia LeBeouf 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $25  Actual: $19
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $61  Actual: $52
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $81

 Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole WB PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $20  Actual: $16
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $56  Actual: $56
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $84

 You Again DIS PG Kristen Bell Jaime Lee Curtis 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26  Actual: $26
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $6

9/25/09

 Surrogates DIS PG13 Bruce Willis  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18  Actual: $15
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $41  Actual: $39
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $79

 Fame MGM PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $24  Actual: $22
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $55

 Pandorum OVERTURE R Dennis Quaid Ben Foster 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $11  Actual: $10
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $9

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE September 12-18

The past week (seven days ending Sunday) is up 2% versus last year's comparable week.  Year-to-date box office is now down 3.8% versus last year, the smallest year-to-year margin we've seen so far this year.  The Lion King in 3D is headed for about $118 million in additional domestic box office for Disney, while Contagion has been upgraded to $85 million after a strong second weekend and a solid weekday period.     


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between September 12 and September 18 grossed a decent $118 million, up 2% versus the same week in 2010 and up 5% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 3.8% from the same period last year (better marginally from -3.9% last week and now the smallest margin of the year), and all films year-to-date are up about 2% versus the comparable year-to-date number averaged over the last four years.  

All Films September 12-18
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #36     $115    $112    $118    
+ 2%    + 5%

Year to Date $7672   $7230   $7380  
-3.8%   +2.1%





Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) for recent films are summarized below.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 




The Help ($171 million, 91st percentile)
The Lion King in 3D ($118 million, 83rd percentile)
Contagion ($85 million, 73rd percentile)
Drive ($43 million, 49th percentile)
Final Destination 5 ($42 million, 49th percentile)

Colombiana ($39 million, 46th percentile)
30 Minutes or Less ($37 million, 44th percentile)

Spy Kids: All the Time in the World ($37 million, 44th percentile)

The Debt ($34 million, 41st percentile)
Our Idiot Brother ($28 million, 31st percentile)

Don't Be Afraid of the Dark ($25 million, 28th percentile)
Warrior ($19 million, 20th percentile)
Conan the Barbarian ($19 million, 19th percentile)
Fright Night ($17 million, 17th percentile)

Shark Night 3D ($17 million, 16th percentile)
Straw Dogs ($15 million, 13th percentile)
Apollo 18 ($15 million, 12th percentile)

One Day ($14 million, 11th percentile)I Don't Know How She Does It ($9 million, 5th percentile)

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday's Studio Projections 


The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for Lion King in 3D was low (the Lion King reissue actually came in about $900,000 higher in the actuals).     

 
      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      September 12-18            Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)   $29.3    $30.2     $118 Contagion                  (WB)   $14.5    $14.5     $ 85+
Drive                 (FilmDis)   $11.0    $11.3     $ 43
The Help                  (Dis)   $ 6.4    $ 6.5     $169
Straw Dogs               (Sony)   $ 5.0    $ 5.1     $ 15
I Don't Know How She Does(Wein)   $ 4.5    $ 4.4     $  9
Warrior                    (LG)   $ 2.8    $ 2.9     $ 19

The Debt                (Focus)   $ 2.9    $ 2.9     $ 34
Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)   $ 2.6    $ 2.7     $182
Colombiana               (Sony)   $ 2.3    $ 2.3     $ 39


Read the International Box Office Numbers round-up if you haven't seen it already.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES September 16-18

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), The Lion King returned to theaters 17 years later -- in 3D no less -- and scored a solid #1 for the weekend.  Drive opened okay, while Straw Dogs and I Don't Know How She Does It were very quiet arrivals.  Conatagion fell to #2, but with a fairly small second-week decline, its final domestic gross has been upgraded.  The weekend overall is now looking like it will be down marginally from this weekend last year.      

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for:  The Lion King in 3D ($117 million), Drive ($42 million), Straw Dogs ($19 million), and I Don't Know How She Does It ($11 million).  Contagion has been upgraded to $84 million, while Warrior has been downgraded a touch to $19 million.  The Debt is holding steady at $34 million, and Colombiana is still headed for $39 million.  The Help is locking in on an extremely good $168 million.             


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, The Lion King in 3D will average $12,600 per theater at 2,330 theaters (for $29.3 million from Friday-Sunday).  Drive opened with a soft $3,800 average at 2,886 theaters ($11.0 million). Straw Dogs opened with a weak $2,100 average at 2,408 theaters ($5.0 million).  I Don't Know How She Does It will average a lame $1,800 at 2,476 theaters ($4.5 million for the weekend).   

The second week decline for Contagion (-35%) paved the way for an increase in the estimated final domestic gross, and the other declines for the holdovers were in the normal range for each genre (with the exception of The Help which had its usual low decline).      


September 16-18, 2011               Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)     $29.3             $117
Contagion                  (WB)     $14.5   -35%      $ 84+
Drive                 (FilmDis)     $11.0             $ 42
The Help               (Dis/DW)     $ 6.4   -28%      $168

Straw Dogs               (Sony)     $ 5.0             $ 19
I Don't Know How She Does(Wein)     $ 4.5             $ 11
Warrior                    (LG)     $ 2.8   -47%      $ 19-
The Debt                (Focus)     $ 2.9   -38%      $ 34

Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)     $ 2.6   -32%      $183

Colombiana               (Sony)     $ 2.3   -42%      $ 39

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Limited Releases 

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results to come):

-- Restless (Sony Pictures Classics) opened with a weak $3,500 average at 5 theaters



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $85 million total, down 3% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Town and Easy A opened but up 2% from the typical total for this weekend the last four years.   

Top 12 Films: Weekend #37
     Volume     (millions)

2011  $ 85  (
+2% vs 2007-10 average; -3% vs 2010) 


2007-10

Avg   $ 83            Movies Opening That Weekend

2010  $ 87  The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12    
2009  $ 87  Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10.5

2008  $ 76  Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend's Girl $8
2007  $ 80  Resident Evil Extinction $24, Good Luck Chuck $14

 



Next Weekend


Opening next week are Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers, Abduction from Lionsgate, Moneyball from Sony, and Killer Elite from Open Road Films.  Those movies will be compared to Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ($19 million opening weekend), Legends of the Guardians ($16 million), and You Again ($8 million). 

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 17


For all the wildly unexpected success of THE LION KING, Disney has limited boxoffice upside, because the new Blu-Ray hits the streets on October 4, and that's not likely to be a date that can be changed.


The Friday number for DRIVE is right on the edge between meeting expectations and disappointing them; its C- Cinemascore suggests the balance is going to tilt the wrong way over the course of the weekend.

Screen Gems seems to have seen STRAW DOGS coming, as it's been sitting on their shelf for quite a few months.  Straw was an ill-advised project in the first place, remaking a film that's both critically esteemed and fairly obscure, and without any appreciable star value.  Scheduling it directly against the similar-appeal Drive was probably the death blow.  

I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT was Harvey Weinstein's turn to learn that Sarah Jessica Parker has no boxoffice value outside the Sex and the City franchise.  Combine that with the fact that it's a woeful piece of work, and you have a formula for flopping.  

CONTAGION held on surprisingly well in its second weekend, considering how genuinely disturbing it is to watch.  It wasn't a cheap film to produce, however, so international revenues will still be key.  It's hardly news that THE HELP continues to play like a champion; at this point, the question is how much DreamWorks will push it in awards season with mogul Spielberg's own War Horse on the horizon.  WARRIOR is also having a decent hold in terms of percentage, but its opening was so low that it hardly matters.

In limited release, Sony Classics was unable to parlay the Toronto reception for RESTLESS into any business--the picture is heading for perhaps $4K in each of 6 theatres.  However, THE MILL AND THE CROSS received a rhapsodic NY Times review, and should make $10K in its Film Forum weekend there (don't look for that one to do any crossover business, though).  

Next weekend, the interesting opening is MONEYBALL, which got deservedly excellent buzz out of Toronto and for which Brad Pitt is in the midst of a publicity spree.  Can that make the difference for a movie whose premise is hard to explain in a single sentence, let alone sell?  Also, Taylor Lautner will tackle his first solo starring project with ABDUCTION--will the Twilight fanatics show up in force for what looks like a Shia LaBouef retread?  And to return full circle, is Lion King a 1-weekend wonder, or will it dent the opening of DOLPHIN TALE?  We'll know soon enough.

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FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 16 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

After a pretty long string of accurate box office predictions, ShowBuzzDaily really missed the boat on The Lion King in 3D.  We were debating between an $11 million or $15 million forecast and decided to go with the lower number.  But wow was there interest in the 3D version of the Disney classic: an estimated $31 million weekend.  The other openers are lost in the shuffle, but Lion King is giving the box office some life (and giving Disney a reason to go back into the vault again selectively).  Overall the weekend is looking like it will be up around 1% from this weekend last year (turning around what was looking to be a down 15% weekend).

The Lion King in 3D is opening way above a flawed forecast ($8.8 million Friday for an expected $31 million this weekend versus an $11 million forecast).  The updated reissue is headed for $121 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide are broadly positive about the film (89% positive at RottenTomatoes) so we could some adjustments upward in the final gross in the next few weeks if the word of mouth on the look of the film is very positive. 



Drive is opening close forecast ($4.0 million Friday for an estimated $11 million opening weekend, compared to an $12 million prediction).  The film is on track for $42 million in North America.  Critics nationwide also have been very positive (93% positive at RottenTomatoes). 

Straw Dogs is opening well below forecast ($1.98 million Friday for an expected $5.5 million this weekend versus a $9 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $20 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been negative (38% positive so far).       

I Don't Know How She Does It is also opening well below forecast ($1.56 million Friday for an expected $4.5 million this weekend versus a $8 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $11 million in North America.  Critics have been pretty harsh on the Sarah Jessica Parker film (20% positive so far).      

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
.     

Contagion is having a good second weekend, down only 33% from its solid opening.  The Matt Damon virus thriller has been upgraded to a final domestic estimate of almost $90 million

  
September 16-18, 2011   Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*

Lion King in 3D (Dis)    [$11  ]    $31.0   $ 8.8     $121
Contagion (WB)           [$13  ]    $15.0   $ 4.6     $ 87+
Drive (FilmDis)          [$12  ]    $11.0   $ 4.0     $ 42
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$ 6  ]    $ 6.5   $ 1.9     $168
Straw Dogs (Sony)        [$ 9  ]    $ 5.5   $ 2.0     $ 20
I Don't Know How (Wein)  [$ 8  ]    $ 4.5   $ 1.6     $ 11

The Debt (Focus)         [$ 3  ]    $ 3.1   $ 0.9     $ 34
Warrior (LG)             [$ 3.5]    $ 3.0   $ 0.9     $ 20

Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 2  ]    $ 2.7   $ 0.8     $183
Colombiana (Sony)        [$ 2  ]    $ 2.5   $ 0.7     $ 39

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $88 million total, up 1% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Town and Easy A opened and up 7% from the typical total for this weekend the last four years.   

Top 12 Films: Weekend #37
     Volume     (millions)

2011  $ 88  (
+7% vs 2007-10 average; +1% vs 2010) 


2007-10

Avg   $ 83            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 87  The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12    

2009  $ 87  Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10.5

2008  $ 76  Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend's Girl $8
2007  $ 80  Resident Evil Extinction $24, Good Luck Chuck $14

 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers, Abduction from Lionsgate, Moneyball from Sony, and Killer Elite from Open Road Films.  Those movies will be compared to Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ($19 million opening weekend), Legends of the Guardians ($16 million), and You Again ($8 million).  

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.  

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice


The Hollywood Reporter has early Friday numbers, and they foretell some surprises for the weekend boxoffice.  Chief among them is the remarkable $7-8M that the 3D pre-Blu-Ray reissue of Disney's THE LION KING grossed on Friday alone, which should mean a weekend of close to $24M, far above expectations.  The combination of nostalgia and the lack of any major family attraction since The Smurfs opened on July 29 seems to have done wonders for this 1994 film.  The 2d slot for the weekend appears to belong to last week's #1 picture CONTAGION, which looks to have a very strong hold with only around a 40% decline for a $13M weekend.

The news is less good for the newcomers.  DRIVE is faring best, with a $10-11M weekend that would be just a bit below expectations--however, what has to be worrisome is that audience reaction seems to be deeply split from the critical consensus, with only a C- score in exit polls compared to the film's 93% Rotten Tomatoes score.  That suggests awful word of mouth that may drag the picture down over the course of the weekend.

THE HELP, no surprise at this point, should have another great hold, with only a 25% drop from last weekend to $6.7M.  But STRAW DOGS and I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT seem to both be headed directly for the trash-heap, with weekend grosses around $5M, substantially less than even the low projections.  I Don't Know at least scored better in the exit polls, with a still-tepid B-, and with its female audience may stick around for a week or two, while the ghost of Sam Peckinpah rejoices as Straw Dogs could manage only a C, and probably would have been better off going directly to VOD (or better yet, not being made at all).

Check out Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Projections, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated numbers and analysis.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS September 16-18

A rather sleepy weekend ahead, most likely down about 15% from the same weekend last year.  No dominant openers arrive Friday, leaving the weekend Contagion's to lose.  

Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Drive should average $5,000 per theater (for $12 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Drive has received near universally positive reviews, with 94% positive at RottenTomatoes.  This film should be on track for around $45 million in North America when it leaves theaters, although there is some upside in that number.


At about 2,200 theaters, The Lion King in 3D from Disney should average $5,100 per theater (for $11 million this weekend).  The re-release in the unnecessary extra dimension has been very well received by critics nationwide, with 91% positive at RottenTomatoes.  This film is probably headed for around $40-50 million domestically, adding to the $328 million it made domestically and $788 million worldwide (in 1994 dollars).  (In today's dollars, the original run of Lion King would be $655 million domestic and $1.57 billion worldwide.) 

Opening at 2,200 theaters from Sony, Straw Dogs should average a weak $3,600 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9 million opening weekend).  Early reviews are mixed, with 60% positive.  Straw Dogs is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.     

Finally, opening at 2,800 theaters from Weinstein, I Don't Know How She Does It should average a tepid $2,800 from Friday-Sunday (for an $8 million opening weekend).  Early reviews are brutal, with only 29% positive.  The Sarah Jessica Parker vehicle is on track for $20 million in North America.     

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
September 16-18                  Positive   Weekend   Total*

Drive               FilmDis  R      94%      $ 12.0    $ 45
Lion King 3D            Dis  G      91%      $ 11.0    $ 45
Straw Dogs             Sony  R      60%      $  9.0    $ 25 
I Don't Know How She   Wein  PG13   29%      $  8.0    $ 20

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Contagion will probably hold on to the top spot with a decent 43% decline this weekend, although Drive or even The Lion King in 3D could challenge it for the weekend crown.  The other returning films are slipping into oblivion, well below $10 million this weekend.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
September 16-18                 vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Contagion               WB        -43%      $13.0     $ 72
The Help            Dis/DW        -31%      $ 6.0     $171
Warrior                 LG        -38%      $ 3.5     $ 24
The Debt             Focus        -41%      $ 3       $ 36
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -46%      $ 2       $183 
Colombiana            Sony        -46%      $ 2       $ 41


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $83 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total (and the total for the same weekend in 2009) was $87 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $74 million, down about 15% from this weekend last year.       


This Weekend Last Two Years


9/17/10

 Easy A SONY PG13 Emma Stone Cam Gigandet 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $17  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $62  Actual: $58
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $16

 The Town WB R Ben Affleck Jon Hamm 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16  Actual: $24
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $94  Actual: $92
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $53

 Devil UNI PG13 Geoffrey Arend Chris Messina 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $37  Actual: $34
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $29

 Alpha and Omega LG PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $22

9/18/09

 Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs SONY PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $25  Actual: $30
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $127  Actual: $125
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $108

 Jennifer's Body FOX R Megan Fox  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $16
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $15

 The Informant! WB R Matt Damon  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $40  Actual: $33
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $8

 Love Happens UNI PG13 Jennifer Aniston Aaron Eckhart 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21  Actual: $23
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $11

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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