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Showing posts with label safe house. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

12:01 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,






Now the only question is when they announce the start of  pre-production on LORAX 2.

OPENINGS:  It turned out THE LORAX (Universal) wasn't frontloaded at all.  Quite the contrary, its 80% Saturday bump put the movie through the roof, a triumph of great marketing over cruddy filmmaking.  Lorax is currently the 3d highest March opening ever, but only $185K behind 300 at #2, so even a slight overperformance on Sunday could lift it up.  PROJECT X (Warners) slipped a bit on Saturday, but even if its Sunday is overestimated, it should still be safely over $20M for the weekend, a very good score for a relatively low-budget studio release.  (The result, unfortunately, will be more lousy "found-footage" movies.)


HOLDOVERS:  Thanks to a nice spread of genres in the Top 10, most of the older movies are holding quite well.  The only 3 movies in the Top 12 to dip more than 45% were JOURNEY 2 (Warners), which was direct competition for Lorax, GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) with a 55% drop that was in keeping with Tyler Perry's pictures, and GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), which was already mid-collapse.  Particularly notable were the tiny respective drops for SAFE HOUSE (Universal) - 34%, THIS MEANS WAR (20th) - 33%, and the (deservedly) much-maligned GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) - 36%.

OSCAR WINNERS:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), the 2d least popular Best Picture winner of the last quarter-century (and the lowest among films still in theatrical release when the awards were given out) raised its post-awards theatre count by 80% and could only manage a 34% bump.  And even that number is shaky, because Artist is claiming by far the lowest Sunday decline of the weekend's top movies, so it may well slipi down (and fall out of the Top 10) tomorrow.  Similarly, its stablemate THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is claiming a 30% weekend increase that relies on a tiny estimated Sunday drop.  Back in the non-Weinstein world, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost many of its theatres and fell 36%, and HUGO (Paramount) dropped 14%.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) tripled its theatres off its Foreign Language Film win, and gratifyingly went over the $1M mark for the weekend in 243 houses.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  BEING FLYNN (Focus) created little excitement with a $11K average at only 4 theatres, and TIM & ERIC'S BILLION DOLLAR MOVIE (Magnolia) could only get to a $4K average in 24.    IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics) lost the Foreign-Language Oscar but tried increasing its theatre count by 50% anyway--the result was a 17% drop for the weekend.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another picture that was hoping for Oscar love it didn't get, more than doubled its theatres to 40, and averaged a decent $3300.  


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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 2-4

8:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year's weekend and up 23% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.




The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($227 million) and Project X ($67 million).

The second week movies:  Act of Valor ($77 million, adjusted upward), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($39 million, steady), Wanderlust ($22 million, steady) and Gone ($12 million, adjusted up slightly).    


The third week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($51 million, adjusted down again slightly), This Means War ($51 million, steady) and Secret World of Arrietty ($23 million, adjusted down). 


The fourth week movies:  The Vow ($130 million, adjusted down a touch), Safe House ($129 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($103 million, adjusted back down) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($42 million, down slightly).    



March 2-4                           Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Lorax                 (Uni)     $70.7             $227
Project X                  (WB)     $20.8             $ 67
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $13.7   -44%      $ 77+
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 7.2   -34%      $129
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 7.0   -55%      $ 39
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 6.9   -48%      $103
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 6.1   -38%      $130
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 5.6   -33%      $ 51
Ghost Rider 2            (Sony)     $ 4.7   -48%      $ 51
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 3.9   +34%      $ 50


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $153 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #9


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $153  The Lorax $71, Project X $21
2011  $121  Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010  $186  Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn's Finest $13
2009  $102  Watchmen $55
2008  $ 91  10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg   $125




Next Weekend            
 
Opening next weekend are John Carter from Disney, Silent House from Open Road Films and A Thousand Words from Paramount.  These films will be compared to Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million opening weekend), Red Riding Hood ($14.0 million) and Mars Needs Moms ($6.9 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE

1:13 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,




Deadline is reporting a fairly spectacular Saturday for THE LORAX (Universal), considering the size of its Friday:  $32M, representing more than an 80% increase from the day before.  As a point of comparison, Horton Hears A Who! increased only 40% on its second day of release.  If this number holds, it puts Lorax in line for a $70M+ weekend, and makes a $200M total gross very likely.  Also, with The Hunger Games, 21 Jump Street, Wrath of the Titans (and OK, John Carter) still to come, it suggests we may be kicking off a March of historic proportions.


PROJECT X (Warners) naturally had nothing like Lorax's Saturday, instead inching down a couple of hundred thousand dollars from Friday.  That should still be enough for a $20M or so weekend, quite good considering the picture's costs (and lack of quality).

Among holdovers, ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is reporting a strong Saturday and could end up falling only 40% or so from last weekend. GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit), though, will fall closer to 60%.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold quite well.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!


 

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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through February 26

5:01 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Four new films opened this weekend in North America and have joined our worldwide box office tracking chart.  Three of the four are toward the bottom of the chart and are destined to stay there.  The other film, Act of Valor, is currently in the middle of the pack but should rise as moderate overseas box office comes in.  We are currently projecting Act of Valor to hit $68 million in domestic box office, and the current zero overseas tally should go to about $40 million given the track record of movies about the U.S. military.  That would put the film ranked around 16th or 17th among the films released in the last three months.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.) 

In contrast, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds, Wanderlust and Gone will not receive much -- if any -- box office overseas.  Tyler Perry's films generally receive no international distribution at all, while bombs like Wanderlust and Gone do not visit foreign theaters in almost all territories. 

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island continues to do brisk business overseas, now up to $159 million outside North America to go along with the projected $118 million domestic final.  The film has an outside shot of reaching $300 million worldwide.  The Vow and Safe House remain in the low-$30 million range overseas.

 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

12:24 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,





As Hollywood prepares to honor its best (well, this year... maybe not so much), an undistinguished group of arrivals dominate the boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any adult-skewing picture in the Top 10, ignoring the usual Oscar Day decline (even though the film had the lowest Saturday bump of any of them).  That means the weekend's final number may be closer to $24M.  There's probably not much gas in the tank for future weeks, but a $60M total for a picture that cost $13M (albeit with much more expensive marketing) is clearly a win.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit)  is Tyler Perry's lowest opening ever (excluding Daddy's Little Girls, which opened on a Wednesday).  That probably doesn't mean much in terms of his overall franchise (especially since he has a Madea movie coming out next), but may give concern to his bid for a non-franchise (well, new franchise) success playing a detective in I, Alex Cross later this year.


Bad news for Jennifer Aniston, too:  WANDERLUST (Universal) is her lowest-ever opening for a starring vehicle.  (Paul Rudd isn't really seen as someone whose name alone opens movies--his hits have either been concept-driven (Role Models) or buddy movies with strong co-stars (Dinner For Schmucks)--but this certainly doesn't move him up in the ranks.)  Another couple of losers and it may be time for Aniston to take a hard look at returning to TV.  The best news for Amanda Seyfried is that in a couple of weeks, GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a dim memory--but even though it's ridiculous to put her in direct competition with Rachel McAdams or any other particular actress, she does need another Dear John-sized hit in the near future if she's not going to fall onto the heap of lovely ex-TV actresses who couldn't hack it on the big screen.

HOLDOVERS:  JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) have real legs, although in Arrietty's case, that won't translate to much of a total gross.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) (which went over $100M, the first-ever for Screen Gems) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) all held well.  GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), of course collapsed.  So did PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), which now seems unlikely to reach $50M--presumably Fox will do anything George Lucas tells them to, but one has to wonder about the enthusiasm for re-releasing the rest of the prequel trilogy in 3D when 3D TV and homevideo are still in their infancy and there's little ancillary value to be had.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Only a few of the major nominees are still in wide release.  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in anticipation of its big wins tonight, was the only one to add theatres, and had a nice weekend bump.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) and HUGO (Paramount), in anticipation of their big losses, dropped theatres and had modest declines.  (Hugo is being released on homevideo in a few days.)  Sony Classics widened a couple of their Best Foreign Film nominees:  probable winner A SEPARATION did very well, increasing theatre count by around 50% and boxoffice by 36%, while IN DARKNESS wasn't quite as strong, with a similar rise in theatre count but only a 11% boost at the boxoffice.

Enjoy the Sacha Baron Cohen Publicity Tour Oscars tonight, everyone!  We'll have plenty of coverage on The Artist's anointment after the fact.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 24-26 (Updated with Daily Totals)

8:51 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $116 million for the weekend, up 21% from last year's weekend and up 25% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Act of Valor will still win the weekend, but the weekend total has been adjusted down about $1 million to $24.7 million.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds has been adjusted up about $1 million to a second-place $16.0 million.  The rest of the field is looking like it did yesterday at this time.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)



Act of Valor was #1 both Friday and Saturday and will be #1 Sunday.  The film was front-loaded, however, with 37% of its expected weekend total coming on Friday and a similar 38% on Saturday.  The other three films opening this weekend had more typical daily distributions, about one-third of the weekend total on Friday and over 40% on Saturday (the so-called "Saturday bump" we see with most films).  Additionally, the returning films exhibit the pattern we see with holdovers: a heavier reliance on Saturday (closer to 50% of the weekend total), while a family film like Journey 2 relies more on daytime-skewed Sunday than night-time focused Friday (with the opposite the case for a date movie like The Vow).

           Domestic Box Office Estimates by Day
         (Millions $ per day & Percent of Weekend)
                 
                   Fri 2.24   Sat 2.25   Sun 2.26   Weekend
 Opening Films
 Act of Valor      $9.05 37%  $9.48 38%  $6.17 25%  $24.70
 TP’s Good Deeds   $5.35 33%  $6.65 42%  $4.00 25%  $16.00
 Wanderlust        $2.20 33%  $2.90 44%  $1.50 23%  $ 6.60
 Gone              $1.70 34%  $2.10 42%  $1.20 24%  $ 5.00  
 Holdovers
 Journey 2         $3.21 24%  $6.42 48%  $3.85 29%  $13.48
 Safe House        $3.20 28%  $5.10 45%  $3.10 27%  $11.40
 The Vow           $3.25 33%  $4.50 45%  $2.25 22%  $10.00
 Ghost Rider 2     $2.35 27%  $4.13 47%  $2.33 26%  $ 8.80

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Act of Valor ($68 million), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($42 million), Wanderlust ($20 million) and Gone ($9 million).    


The second week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($54 million, adjusted down slightly), This Means War ($51 million, up slightly) and Secret World of Arrietty ($30 million, up slightly). 


The third week movies:  The Vow ($133 million, adjusted down), Safe House ($134 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($118 million, adjusted up again) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($47 million, steady).    



February 24-26                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $24.7             $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $16.0             $ 42
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $13.5   -32%      $118+
Safe House                (Uni)     $11.4   -52%      $134-
The Vow                  (Sony)     $10.0   -57%      $133-

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE

2:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



According to Deadline, ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is reporting a mild 5% Saturday bump.  That's modest, but still less frontloaded than The Expendables' 10% drop on its 2d day, and if the number holds, could mean a $24M+ weekend.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is looking better with around a 30% Saturday increase, comparing favorably with the 15% bump The Family That Preys (Tyler Perry's previous low opener) had on its first Saturday, and suggesting a $17M weekend.


After that, it doesn't matter much.  Percentage-wise, WANDERLUST (Universal) had a good 43% Saturday increase, but that still only brought it to $3M for the day, on its way to a irretrievable $7M opening.  And even that looks good compared to GONE (Summit/Lionsgate), which could only manage $2M on Saturday on its way to a weekend that might not hit $5M.

Among holdovers, JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) both took full advantage of the Saturday matinee audience, doubling their Friday numbers.  So did GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), although its Friday was so dismal that the 2d weekend gross will still be down 60%.  The movies aimed at adults--SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th)--had 50-60% Saturday bumps, as per the norm.  Patterns suggest that Oscar Sunday will bring a larger-than-usual 40-50% drop for most pictures, regardless of genre, as people make plans for the big night.  (Of course, the size of this particular Oscar night is open to question, so that may moderate the declines.)

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice and analysis!
 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

12:51 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Navy SEALs shoot up the Friday boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  The very aggressive marketing for ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) made it seem like it was a patriotic duty to see the film, and successfully hid the fact that it's mostly a sub-par B action movie.  The question now is whether its quality will catch up with it (or not).  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is Tyler Perry's lowest wide-release opening Friday ever at $5.6M (Daddy's Little Girls opened on a Wednesday), but not to worry--Perry will have a new Madea comedy out later this year.


Although daily numbers aren't available for her earliest vehicles, WANDERLUST (Universal), with a 2.2M Friday, also seems to be the biggest flop of Jennifer Aniston's starring career, let alone for one that pairs her with another big name like Paul Rudd.  Aniston has had something of a charmed movie career, considering the low quality of many of her pictures, but her luck may be running out.  GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is just sad at $1.7M, and should send Amanda Seyfried on a search for the next half-decent rom-com or soap opera script that comes her way.

HOLDOVERS:  THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony), SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and SECRET WORLD OF ARIETTY (Disney) are all sustaining well, but nothing is holding like JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), which is clearly pleasing its target audiences. The only thing that could keep it from beating the $102M US gross of the first Journey is next weekend's increased competition.  GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Sony) collapsed, and STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) continued to do so as well--it's starting to look like Phantom Menace may not even get to $50M, although it'll still put plenty of midichlorians in George Lucas's pocket.  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  As THE ARTIST (Weinstein) prepares for its coronation, it added about 20% more theatres and took a nice tick upward.  HUGO (Paramount) lost about 10% of its screens, but also went up a bit.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), on the other hand, lost about a third of its theatres, and was somewhat down.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No notable openings or expansions this weekend, as the art-house audience is presumably occupied with Oscar Day.

NEXT WEEKEND:  March is unusually packed with event movies this year, and first up is THE LORAX (Universal), which the studio has been marketing as an all-quadrant tentpole, with spots aiming at kids (Dr. Seuss), teens (Zac Efron and Taylor Swift) and adults (Danny DeVito and Betty White)--including a fairly heavy ESPN push--and all of that doesn't even count the giant promo deals with a car company and restaurant chain.  A different sort of event is PROJECT X (Warners), an R-rated  "found footage" version of The Hangover (and produced by its director, as every promo is happy to tell you) about a teen party that goes very wild.  Also arriving is the year's first substantial limited release, Paul Weitz's BEING FLYNN (Focus), which is riding some good early buzz for its performances from Robert DeNiro and Paul Dano.


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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 24 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:58 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The eighth weekend of 2012 is another solid one, running 18% ahead of last year's same weekend and 22% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  This is the third weekend in a row that 2012 volume beats both the easy target of last year's depressed levels as well as the more difficult to beat multi-year averages.  (The first five weekends of 2012 were generally ahead of 2011 but not other recent years.)  Act of Valor powered its way to #1 with a big advertising budget, including Super Bowl buys, and additional free media because of its use of real Navy SEAL team members in the film.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds is a fairly weak second place, just ahead of the third week films (Journey 2, Safe House, The Vow), which are hanging around reasonably well.  The other openers this weekend, Wanderlust and Gone, are DOA.    

Act of Valor from Relativity opened with $9.0 million Friday for an estimated $25.7 million for Friday-Sunday, way above the $18.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The war movie featuring real Navy SEALs is averaging $8,500 on 3,039 screens.  Act of Valor is headed for a preliminary $70 million total domestic. 


Tyler Perry's Good Deeds (from Lionsgate) opened with $5.4 million Friday for $14.6 million Friday-Sunday, missing the $17.0 million prediction.  The latest from Tyler Perry should average around $6,800 at 2,132 theaters this weekend.  Good Deeds is headed for a preliminary $38 million domestic. No, it's not going to be the $90 million when Perry dressed up for Madea Goes to Jail or the $63 million when he did the same thing for Madea's Family Reunion.  But give the man some credit for trying some other things and not sticking to a formula.

Wanderlust (from Universal) opened with $2.2 million Friday -- on track for $6.2 million this weekend, badly missing a very modest $9.0 million forecast.  The Paul Rudd-Jennifer Aniston comedy should average $3,100 this weekend at 2,002 theaters.  Wanderlust is on track for $19 million total domestic.

Gone from Summit Entertainment opened with only $1.7 Friday, on its way to $4.5 million this weekend, also missing a very soft $6.0 million forecast.  The Amanda Seyfried film should average a pitiful $2,000 this weekend at 2,186 theaters.  Gone is on pace for $8 million total domestic.  

The third weekend films are the pick of the holdovers, with Journey 2: The Mysterious Island holding the best, down a very good 32% from its second weekend.  Safe House should be down 54% and The Vow down 57%.  Through Sunday, Safe House should trail The Vow by about $5 million ($97.7 million versus $102.9 million to date), but we expect both films to ultimately finish with about $133 million.  This Means War is on track to drop 50% in its second weekend, compared to a huge 65% decline for Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance.    
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 24-26, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$18.0]    $25.7   $ 9.0     $ 70
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$17.0]    $14.6   $ 5.4     $ 38
Journey 2 (WB)           [$12.8]    $13.5   $ 3.2     $118+ 
Safe House (Uni)         [$13.0]    $11.0   $ 3.1     $133 
The Vow (Sony)           [$12.0]    $ 9.8   $ 3.3     $133-
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 9.5]    $ 8.8   $ 2.7     $ 53+ 
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ 8.5]    $ 7.8   $ 2.3     $ 50- 
Wanderlust (Uni)         [$ 9.0]    $ 6.2   $ 2.2     $ 19 
Gone (Sum)               [$ 6.0]    $ 4.5   $ 1.7     $  8
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.5]    $ 4.5   $ 1.1     $ 30+

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total Friday-Sunday, up 18% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #8


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $113  Act of Valor $25.7, Good Deeds $14.6, Wanderlust $6
2011  $ 96  Hall Pass $13.5, Drive Angry 3D $5
2010  $107  Cop Out $18, The Crazies $16
2009  $ 87  Jonas Brothers 3D Concert $12.5, Street Fighter $5
2008  $ 80  Semi-Pro $15, Other Boleyn Girl $8
2008-11
Avg   $ 92


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS February 24-26

6:37 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The eighth weekend of the year should generate about $116 million for the top 12 films -- up 21% from last year's comparable weekend and up 25% from the four-year average for this weekend.  The big studios are sitting out Oscar weekend, leaving it to Relativity, Lionsgate and Summit to open films as attention shifts to the Kodak Hollywood and Highland Theater Sunday.  Well, OK, Universal is opening a film this weekend with a tepid theater count of under 2,000 locations.  We are giving the slight edge to Act of Valor, although we will probably regret this as we have underestimated Tyler Perry before.  It should be a good race to #1 throughout the weekend, with the top film probably coming in under $20 million.   



Opening at over 3,000 theaters, Act of Valor from Relativity should average an okay $5,900 per theater (for $18.0 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  No reviews yet for this war movie featuring real Navy SEALs -- the entire crop of films opening this weekend is being hidden from film critics.  Act of Valor is on track for a preliminary $47 million domestically.            

Opening in around 2,000 theaters, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds from Lionsgate should average a decent $8,600 per theater ($17.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Good Deeds is headed for a total domestic gross of $45 million, a notch below recent Tyler Perry films: Madea's Big Happy Family ($53.3 million) in April 2011, Why Did I Get Married ($60.1 million) in April 2010 and I Can Do Bad All By Myself ($51.7 million) in September 2009.  Perry's biggest hit so far was Madea Goes to Jail ($90.5 million) in February 2009. 

In around 1,900 theaters, Universal's Wanderlust (starring Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston) should average a soft $4,800 per theater ($9.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  The R-rated comedy is on track for a final tally of maybe $34 million domestic.  

Finally, Amanda Seyfried in Gone from Summit is opening in about 2,000 theaters and should average a meager $3,100 per theater ($6.0 million opening weekend).  The film is headed for a final domestic total of $14 million.


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 24-26                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Act of Valor             Rel  R     n/a      $18.0     $ 47
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG   PG13  n/a      $17.0     $ 45
Wanderlust               Uni  R     n/a      $ 9.0     $ 34
Gone                     Sum  PG13  n/a      $ 6.0     $ 14


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

After Act of Valor and Tyler Perry's Good Deeds at #1 and #2, there should be a pretty good battle for third through fifth place between third weekend entries Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow.  The bottom should drop out of Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in its second weekend.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 24-26                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Safe House               Uni      -46%      $13.0     $139
Journey 2                 WB      -36%      $12.8     $104

The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $12.0     $143
This Means War           Fox      -46%      $ 9.5     $ 49
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -62%      $ 8.5     $ 58
Secret World Arrietty    Dis      -34%      $ 4.5     $ 25

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $92 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $96 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $107 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $116 million, up 21% from this weekend last year and up 25% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


2/25/11

 Hall Pass WB R Owen Wilson Jason Sudeikis 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16  Actual: $14
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $48  Actual: $45
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $38

 Drive Angry 3D SUMMIT R Nicolas Cage  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12  Actual: $5
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $14  Actual: $10
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $18

2/26/10

 Cop Out WB R Bruce Willis Tracy Morgan 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $51  Actual: $45
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $11

 The Crazies OVERTURE R Timothy Olyphant Radha Mitchell 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16  Actual: $16
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $46  Actual: $39
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $15



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

Enjoy the Academy Awards Sunday, and be sure to look for Mitch Salem's take on the winners and losers, the telecast itself and the movie spots airing inside the big show.  Happy Oscars, everybody.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE February 13-19

10:59 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Seven full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year's slow pace and now has moved solidly ahead of the comparable period's average for the last several years.                


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between February 13 and February 19 grossed $217 million, up 20% from the same week in 2011 and up a similar percentage from the four-year average for the comparable week.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 27% ahead of 2011 and now 5% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films February 13-19
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #7      $180    $180    $217    +20%    +20%

Year to Date $1040   $1250   $1317   +27%    + 5%



Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 


The Vow $143 million (87 percentile) 
Safe House $139 million (87 percentile) 
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $104 million (79 percentile)
Chronicle $71 million (67 percentile) 
Contraband $68 million (67 percentile) 
Underworld Awakening $65 million (65 percentile) 
The Woman in Black $60 million (62 percentile) 
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance $59 million (60 percentile)
The Grey $56 million (59 percentile) 
Red Tails $51 million (56 percentile) 
This Means War $49 million (54 percentile)
Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace 3D $48 million (54 percentile) 
Beauty and the Beast 3D $46 million (53 percentile) 
The Artist $33 million (40 percentile) 
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close $32 million (38 percentile)
Joyful Noise $31 million (35 million) 
The Iron Lady $28 million (31 percentile) 
One for the Money $25 million (27 percentile)
Secret World of Arrietty $25 million (28 percentile)
Big Miracle $22 million (23 percentile)
Haywire $19 million (18 percentile)   
Man on a Ledge $18 million (18 percentile) 


Weekend Predictions for February 24-26 should be posted late Wednesday.

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