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Showing posts with label 2 broke girls. Show all posts

Showing posts with label 2 broke girls. Show all posts

THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

11:22 AM | Labels: 2 1/2 Men, 2 broke girls, alcatraz, bachelor, castle, gossip, Hart of Dixie, House, How I Met Your Mother, Monday, network scorecard, smash, The Sked, The Voice, TV ratings

So much for SMASH being a hit.

NBC: Leaving the numbers aside for a moment, on a dramatic level SMASH after 3 episodes is starting to lose its practically-cable sheen, and look a lot more like a high-class ABC soap. The post-pilot episodes haven't even been as good as a typical Parenthood or The Good Wife, much less Mad Men. And those numbers continue to crumble: last night's 2.3 was down 40% from the premiere, and as Mitch Metcalf's analysis shows, the drop in the show's 2d half-hour suggests the ratings aren't done falling. It's only fair to say that if Smash could just stabilize where it is, that would still be a very good number for NBC, on a level with The Office, still the network's highest-rated scripted show. And as The Sked has noted, the series appeals to the upscale viewers that advertisers covet. But... coming in 2d place to Hawaii 5-0 (and not that far ahead of Castle in 3d place) is hardly where NBC wanted Smash to be. On the very important plus side for the the network, though, THE VOICE is holding beautifully, down less than 15% over 3 weeks, and enabling NBC to keep airing those promos asserting domination over once-untouchable American Idol.

FOX: The Monday lineup is nearing bottom but may not have gotten there yet. HOUSE and ALCATRAZ were both slightly down from last week, and Alcatraz had its 2d consecutive week below the lowest number Terra Nova ever had.

CBS: HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, 2 BROKE GIRLS and 2 1/2 MEN all recovered some of last week's losses, but each continues to run below its level from the first time facing The Voice . MIKE & MOLLY and HAWAII 5-0 were steady, albeit at or just above season lows.

ABC: THE BACHELOR and CASTLE were steady, 0.1 above their respective season lows.

CW: GOSSIP GIRL and HART OF DIXIE both held with last week at 0.5 and 0.6 respectively.

Fans of COUGAR TOWN could be in for a rough night if its rating drops further from last week's blah debut. THE RIVER also needs to hit some smoother water. FOX airs the "midseason finale" of GLEE (next Tuesday there's a 2-hour Idol, then the network launches its 4-sitcom experiment). Everything continues to be new as February sweeps continue, except that CW is burdening RINGER with the terrible lead-in of a HART OF DIXIE rerun.

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The Sked: Upscale Ratings -- CBS Profile

7:15 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, Big Bang Theory, cbs, How I Met Your Mother, nad, Person of Interest, The Sked, TV ratings, two half men, upscale

In the last post on upscale ratings, we looked at ABC, which has a high number of series that skew substantially toward upper-income viewers but not enough programs with a sizable total audience. Today, we turn our attention to CBS, which has taken a very different pathway to success: many shows with a large audience although very few series attract upper-income viewers. While the CBS prime time schedule averages a 2.9 rating with Adults 18-49 this season to date (far superior to ABC's 2.4), CBS falls to a 2.6 rating with Adults 18-49 in $100K+ homes (trailing ABC's 2.7). The CBS $100K+ index of 91 (100=average and anything under 100 indicates a downscale skew) is the lowest of the four major broadcast networks, and only quasi-network The CW has a lower index (83).

In the chart below, we have added each CBS regular series (in red) to one of nine categories (based on the combination of high, middle or low rating and upscale, midscale or downscale skew). Notice how few CBS shows are in the extreme right column (the upscale categories) or the bottom row (the low rating categories). The CBS line-up is very heavily concentrated in the upper-left area of the chart (high- and middle-rated shows in the downscale and midscale areas).

Monday Comedies. The most upscale shows on CBS are the Monday 8-10 pm and Thursday 8:00 pm comedies: How I Met Your Mother (111), Big Bang Theory (105), 2 Broke Girls (100), Two and a Half Men (97) and Mike & Molly (93). We are categorizing How I Met Your Mother as an upscale show, but keep in mind its index is just over the dividing line and actually is fairly close to the other flagship CBS multi-camera sitcoms. Although none of these shows has an exceptionally high index (denying the CBS sales department an upscale pricing premium), the ratings are high enough that no one at CBS is going to go hungry anytime soon. Additionally, the granddaddy of reality shows, Survivor, has an index similar to the CBS comedy hits (99), unspectacular but relatively high for CBS and decent for the reality genre as a whole.

Crime Dramas. In contrast, crime and detective dramas (the other staple of the CBS schedule) are not exactly magnets for upper-income viewers. The best index values for this CBS specialty are found with freshman series Person of Interest (89), the veteran NCIS (85) and its spinoff NCIS: Los Angeles (77). Hawaii Five-0 (83) also fits perfectly in this group and gives up any upscale traction (albeit limited) on CBS Monday earlier in the evening with the comedies. But others such as Criminal Minds (67), Unforgettable (65), the original CSI (62) and brand extensions CSI: Miami (68) and CSI: New York (65) are positively downscale. Again, the overall ratings are high enough that the revenue is there -- it's just that the network is leaving money on the advertising negotiating table by repelling viewers with more disposable income.

CBS Sunday. One upscale oasis on the CBS schedule is Sunday night, with the venerable 60 Minutes boasting a 132 index (much better than the Dateline or 20/20 indices, which are around 100). Amazing Race, perennial favorite of the TV Academy at Emmy time, with a 134 index also attracts high income viewers (who not surprisingly are also much more likely to have a passport and travel internationally, as lifestyle and psychographic studies consistently show). Finally, The Good Wife at 9 pm sports a 120 index, clearly the most upscale drama on CBS. However, the audience size on CBS Sunday is anything but dominant -- so any upscale premium is added to a middling price base.

Certainly, CBS chief Leslie Moonves would say something like, "CBS has a game plan that works very well for us. As the best broadcaster in the business, CBS attracts more viewers than any other network [i.e., change the subject from 18-49 ratings to 2+ because CBS has huge advantages in the 50+ and 65+ age groups], and we are paid very handsomely by Madison Avenue for our consistent audience delivery. Let the other networks crow about their ratings with tiny demographic groups like 35-49 year-old professors in New York City. At CBS, we look at the total score on the scoreboard, and that tally tells us the future is very bright at CBS." In fact, CBS is in very good overall shape, but imagine their strength if their comedies were more like 120 or 125 index values and if the crime dramas could move into the 100-110 range. They would be unstoppable.

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

9:42 AM | Labels: 2 1/2 Men, 2 broke girls, alcatraz, bachelor, castle, gossip, hart, hawaii, House, How I Met Your Mother, Mike and Molly, Monday, network scorecard, smash, The Sked, The Voice, TV ratings

NBC can't put away that Alka-Seltzer just yet.

NBC: THE VOICE, down only around 10% from last week's huge rating, is in great shape at 8PM, and those 2 strong hours pretty much guarantee NBC Monday wins the rest of the season. So far so good. But nightly wins aside, an enormous amount of NBC's stature and even its identity has been wagered this season on SMASH, and that part of the night is still unsettled. Last night, Smash's 2.8 was down about 25% from last week, and as Mitch Metcalf details, that number went down sharply at the half-hour mark. Right now the show can still fairly be called a hit, winning its hour against CBS and ABC. But its margin of victory was a shrinking 0.2 (and really it only won the 10-10:30PM half-hour), so the show needs to stabilize quickly. As I noted in my Pilot + 1 review, creatively the 2d episode started to show some dramatic strain, and NBC will hope those are rectified before more viewers depart.

FOX: The Voice is killing ALCATRAZ, which fell by almost half an additional ratings point to another season low. (Terra Nova fans, stop grinning.) The show has dropped 40% from its premiere rating. HOUSE also fell to a new season low, but by a slimmer 0.1, and besides, the series is now officially a lame duck, so its troubles are more short-term.

ABC: THE BACHELOR and CASTLE continue to hold their own against the NBC competition, with Bachelor down only 0.1 from last week and Castle (with a much-hyped 2-part Bourne-type spy plot) dead even.

CBS: What the hell happened to HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, 2 BROKE GIRLS and 2 1/2 MEN last night? All of them had steep falls to new season lows, down 0.6, 0.6 and 0.5 from last week even though competition from The Voice was lower this week. (And so much for any Grammys halo effect.) Any and all theories are welcome. MIKE & MOLLY and HAWAII 5-0 were down a more modest 0.1 each, although that still marked a new season low for each of them.

CW: GOSSIP GIRL, on the downswing of its illustrious career, was down 0.1 to a 0.5, beaten by stablemate HART OF DIXIE, which was even at 0.6.

Tonight ABC finally brings back COUGAR TOWN, with LAST MAN STANDING as the least compatible possible lead-in for that show this side of Man Up! After that, the network will hope that THE RIVER doesn't collapse further from its unimpressive debut.

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

9:55 AM | Labels: 2 1/2 Men, 2 broke girls, alcatraz, bachelor, castle, gossip, hart, hawaii, House, How I Met Your Mother, Mike and Molly, Monday, network scorecard, smash, The Sked, The Voice, TV ratings

For one night, at least, all NBC's dreams came true.

NBC: THE VOICE blew away its competition, especially in the 9-10PM hour. Its 6.6 rating over 2 hours was naturally way down from Sunday night, where it had the most-watched telecast of all time as its lead-in, but for NBC it was manna from heaven. Of course, last season Voice faltered somewhat as its run went on, so we'll see how its numbers hold up over time--still, an exceptional start. SMASH and its 3.8 were also an easy winner at 10PM. As Mitch Metcalf has noted, though (see his half-hour by half-hour breakdown of the numbers here), the drop over the course of the hour may be something to be concerned about--by 10:30PM, the show had lost 55% of The Voice's 9:30PM rating. Next week, we'll find out how frontloaded all of these numbers were by months of expensive hype. For now, though, the marketing people at NBC can exult in a job superbly well done.

CBS: The Eye was tearing in the face of NBC's sudden juggernaut. Every show on its Monday line-up was either at (2 1/2 MEN, MIKE & MOLLY, HAWAII 5-0) or 0.1 above (HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, 2 BROKE GIRLS) its season low. That still left the network firmly in 2d place in every half-hour... but 2d place isn't 1st place.

FOX: HOUSE and ALCATRAZ both plummeted to season lows (Alcatraz was down a particularly ugly 0.6 from last week, leaving it at a very mediocre 2.2), landing in 4th place for the night.

ABC: Somewhat surprisingly--considering the nature of NBC's new shows--the female-skewing networks held up best against the onslaught. THE BACHELOR was even with last week, and CASTLE was down only 0.1 from its last original (although that tied its season low).

CW: Its young audience was largely unaffected by the sea change at NBC: GOSSIP GIRL was down only 0.1 from its hyped 100th episode last week, and HART OF DIXIE was even.

Tonight, ABC will attempt to generate some of its own hoopla with the 2-hour premiere of "found footage" supernatural thriller THE RIVER, another series Executive Produced by Steven Spielberg. No major events on the other networks, but this being sweeps, there are fresh episodes everywhere.

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

10:39 AM | Labels: 2 1/2 Men, 2 broke girls, bachelor, fear factor, hawaii, House, How I Met Your Mother, Mike and Molly, Monday, rock center, swap, The Secret Circle, The Sked, TV ratings, who's still standing

The networks (well, most of them) returned from their winter holidays only to find less viewer interest than they may have hoped.

CBS: An easy win for the night with an all-new line-up. But 2 1/2 MEN, MIKE & MOLLY and HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER were all down from their last original airings, and 2 BROKE GIRLS and HAWAII 5-0 were only up 0.1.

ABC: THE BACHELOR, like many of this season's reality franchises, returned to a significantly lower rating (down 0.5) than last year's premiere. The good news for the network was that CELEBRITY WIFE SWAP held Bachelor's audience well, scoring about what Castle does in the slot--although it was an out of time slot "preview" before the show makes its official debut tonight.

NBC: Its "real" Monday schedule won't debut until the night after the Super Bowl, as one of their roughly 9 zillion promos for The Voice and Smash may have told you. Until then, they're muddling through with 3rd place finishes for WHO'S STILL STANDING and ROCK CENTER, and FEAR FACTOR's tie for 2d at 9PM with The Bachelor's 2.4.

FOX: 2 hours of HOUSE reruns kept the lights on with a 1.2.

CW: SECRET CIRCLE reruns barely registered at a 0.3.

Tonight, like last night, NBC, CBS and ABC will air new programming while FOX and CW remain in repeats. ABC presents the actual premiere of Celebrity Wife Swap, and precedes it, for our sins, with the debut of WORK IT, winner (for the pilot, anyway) of this season's What Is This Show Doing On the Air? award.

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

10:38 AM | Labels: 2 broke girls, 2.5 Men, castle, fear factor, Mike and Molly, Monday, network scorecard, terra, The Sked, TV ratings, you deserve it

Forget about prestige drama and comedy: it turned out all NBC needed was some dining on bugs.

NBC: FEAR FACTOR returned to the airwaves with a tremendous 3.4 average over 2 hours. This is great news for a network that sorely needs some, but it's worth noting that in this same holiday period last year, against mostly specials and repeats, The Sing-Off did a 3.6, a level that prompted the network to bring the show back as a fall series... and we all know how that worked out. So Fear Factor may be more of a seasonal curiosity than an enduring hit. Still: success! It turns out the cow blood audience doesn't overlap that much with the newsmagazine crowd (who knew?), so the glad tidings didn't extend to ROCK CENTER.

FOX: The positive spin on TERRA NOVA matching or setting a season low (depending on football adjustment) is that it was facing much more powerful competition on NBC than it's had all season. Well, maybe--but it was also yet another lousy (and almost dinosaur-free) episode, as the series prepares next week for its season, and possibly series, finale. Nobody showed up for the HOUSE repeat at 9PM.

CBS: The 8PM experiment of putting 2 BROKE GIRLS in HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER's slot wasn't a huge success, scoring a few tenths below Mother's usual number. On the other hand, most networks would drool for a slot-winning 4.1 rating at 8PM, so the test was hardly an abject failure. The combination of a Broke Girls repeat at 9:30 and the strong male-oriented competition on NBC hurt 2 1/2 MEN and MIKE & MOLLY; the former set a new season low, and the latter was just a bit above its low. HAWAII 5-0 was also near the bottom of its range, despite facing a repeat on ABC.

ABC: Barely present, with ratings for yet another Charlie Brown Xmas special, the flop game-show YOU DESERVE IT and a CASTLE repeat all below a 1.5.

CW: Repeats, repeats.

Tonight CBS and FOX air new regular-series episodes, while NBC tries a Prince William & Kate special at 8PM, and ABC, oddly, has a new LAST MAN STANDING leading into a night otherwise in repeats.

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THE SKED'S MONDAY NETWORK SCORECARD

10:31 AM | Labels: 2 broke girls, 2.5 Men, 20/20, dancing, dixie, gossip, House, How I Met Your Mother, Mike and Molly, network scorecard, rock center, Sing-Off, terra, The Sked, TV ratings

Monday has become a real problem for one network and a guaranteed victory for another.

FOX: Due to the nature of Season 1 production on TERRA NOVA, it was always clear that there wouldn't be any back-order this year. That leaves FOX with plenty of time to think about whether to renew the show for a second season. It's become an increasingly problematic decision, because at the show's level of license fee, a 2.3 rating is below mediocre. (However, on a corporate level FOX owns the series--which may have strong overseas value due to its genre--and that will also figure into the decision.) It doesn't help that creatively, the show has become sluggish and uninvolving, with minimal dinosaur action and dull plots. As to HOUSE, reports are that the network's decision on whether to make the deals necessary to bring it back will be made sooner rather than later, so the show can build to a series finale if needed, and that's looking more likely than not right now.

CBS: Remember the concern that with Charlie Sheen gone, 2 1/2 MEN would collapse? The show is thriving, with last night's rating more than 30% over last season's average. That goes for HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER and MIKE & MOLLY as well, and 2 BROKE GIRLS, which has eased up on the hostility jokes and become somewhat bearable, is right up there with them. Spring will bring more challenges with THE VOICE as competition (and SMASH up against HAWAII 5-0), but for now Monday is just about ideal for CBS.

ABC: A clear winner in the battle of the newsmagazine "gets," the special 20/20 with Gabrielle Giffords more than doubled NBC's number at 10PM. DANCING WITH THE STARS, while still substantially below last season, is building toward its cycle conclusion.

NBC: Even with a nationally reported scoop, the interview with allegedly monstrous former Penn State Assistant Coach Jerry Sandusky that was in the media all day leading up to the show, ROCK CENTER barely moved the dial. THE SING-OFF is counting the weeks till it can fade away.

CW: GOSSIP GIRL and HART OF DIXIE were steady, but at the low end of CW's 0.6-0.8 range, particularly bad news for Gossip.

Tonight FOX will hope that the GLEE/NEW GIRL post-baseball bleeding can heal.

.

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THE SKED: "2 Broke Girls" A Little Less Broke

3:56 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, pan am, revenge, suburgatory, The Secret Circle, The Sked

In one of the least surprising developments of the young season, CBS has given a full season back-order to 2 BROKE GIRLS. Considering that the show did a 4.4 this past week, and NBC has given back orders to UP ALL NIGHT (2.1) and WHITNEY (2.5), it would be an understatement to say that the vote of confidence is deserved.

Now that CBS, NBC and FOX (with NEW GIRL) have rewarded their new shows with early pick-ups, who's next? If THE SECRET CIRCLE holds up tomorrow night, expect CW to move quickly on a back order. ABC may have to wait a little longer to see where their shows are headed, but if SUBURGATORY holds up anywhere close to its premiere number, it'll have a good shot, and either or both of PAN AM and REVENGE should get good news if their ratings stabilize at current levels.

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THE SKED: Week 2 + 1 - CBS Network Scorecard

3:54 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, A gifted man, cbs, csi, How to be a gentleman, network scorecard, Person of Interest, The Sked, TV ratings, Unforgettable

The third week of a network season is a critical one. Ratings erosion after a series or season premiere is expected and even acceptable, because it's understood that not every viewer drawn by hype and marketing will be a satisfied customer. But a continued fall in Week 3 can be a sign of trouble, and if that decline is from a number that wasn't great to begin with, the trouble could be serious. That being said, let's take a look at where the networks stand as they begin this crucial week. (Note: since only 2 networks debuted their Monday schedules on the season's first official day, we'll include the next Monday in our review of the week.)

CBS

Thriving:

2 BROKE GIRLS - Even those (like I) who don't particularly love the show have to respect the way it fits into CBS's Monday night schedule. With its addition, the 8-10PM hours on CBS are the most effective ensemble on TV.

CSI: The addition of Ted Danson and consequent reboot couldn't have worked out better for an aging series that's now convincingly winning its new timeslot.

Holdovers: 2 1/2 MEN, MIKE & MOLLY, HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, THE BIG BANG THEORY, NCIS, NCIS LA, CRIMINAL MINDS, SURVIVOR, BLUE BLOODS, HAWAII 5-0, THE MENTALIST

Struggling:

UNFORGETTABLE - This should have been a perfect CBS procedural, but while it's not a flop, its ratings have been soft, just a bit ahead of Parenthood. With so much of the schedule--and especially Tuesday night--performing well, it's not clear how patient the network will be with it (even though it would already have gotten a back order from NBC).

PERSON OF INTEREST - It's a bit of a puzzle why this show isn't doing better. As procedurals go, it's high-quality and has an intriguing premise, yet it's holding 4th place in its hour. A timeslot move is more likely than an early removal.

HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN: It's only aired once, so judgment is premature, but it certainly didn't get off to a good start. If it squanders most of Big Bang's lead, it won't be around for long.

THE GOOD WIFE - Any hope that the move to Sunday would find a wider audience for this excellent show seems to have been in vain. It's the only true prestige show on CBS's schedule, so it's unlikely to be at great risk as long as its numbers stay stable, but it may not keep its Sunday slot for the entire season.

CSI MIAMI - Being pushed downward by Good Wife.

DYING:

A GIFTED MAN - It's OK to have low ratings on Friday night compared to any other night of the week (except Saturday). But Gifted Man is in Fringe territory with a 1.2. Any further slippage and the patient may die on the table.

GRADE: B

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THE SKED: Monday Ratings - Network Scorecard

10:53 AM | Labels: 2 broke girls, castle, dancing with the stars, gossip, hart, House, network scorecard, playboy, Sing-Off, terra, The Sked, TV ratings

The news was mostly good for the networks last night--except for the one show whose news was fatal.

FOX: If anything, FOX seems to have been the victim of its own hype this fall. Like The X-Factor, TERRA NOVA is looking like a solid hit--just not the blockbuster the network foretold. Its 100% retention of the premiere's 3.1 rating (slightly adjusted from Mitch Metcalf's ratings report) is exceptional, and it looks likely to be one of the highest-rated new hours of the season. HOUSE's return was extremely solid, equal to last year's season average.

CBS: From 8-10PM, every show on the network's schedule--including newbie 2 BROKE GIRLS--rated a 4.3 or higher, which these days is amazing. (And even at 10PM, HAWAII 5-0 may have dipped a bit from that lofty level, but still easily won its hour.) 2 1/2 MEN's decline this week to a 6.1 continues to show the aftereffects of its gigantic premiere, but even if it fell some more, it would still be a smash.

NBC: This is how you find out you're about to be cancelled: at the end of THE PLAYBOY CLUB last night, the network didn't run a promo for the following week's episode, substituting one for Wednesday's SVU instead. With THE SING-OFF's 1.8 anchoring the night (and by "anchor," I mean pulling it down to the bottom of the ocean), NBC is pretty much throwing in the towel on Mondays for the fall: the reruns of PRIME SUSPECT that will run in Playboy's slot for the next 3 weeks will barely show a pulse, and while the new Brian Williams newsmagazine should do better, there's a ceiling on the kind of rating a show in that genre is likely to get. They'll wait for the return of THE VOICE and debut of SMASH after the Super Bowl to do battle for the night.

ABC: DANCING WITH THE STARS is down a colossal 35% from last year (the casting people at the network have to be scrambling for big names they can put into the spring cycle), so CASTLE's 10% decline from last season's average is nothing to complain about.

CW: The people who watched HART OF DIXIE's premiere clearly liked it, as the rating stayed rock-solid just like Terra Nova's. Of course, staying rock-solid at a 0.8 isn't the same as doing it at 3.1, but the network could hardly ask more of the show than its improvement on GOSSIP GIRL's lead-in.

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THE SKED - Monday Ratings - Network Scorecard

10:06 AM | Labels: 2 1/2 Men, 2 broke girls, castle, dancing, gossip, hart, hawaii, How I Met Your Mother, Mike and Molly, Monday, network scorecard, playboy, Sing-Off, terra, The Sked, TV ratings

One network dominated all of primetime last night...

FOX: ...and it wasn't FOX. You can't call TERRA NOVA a disaster--a 3.1 rating (slightly adjusted from Mitch Metcalf's report) is a decent number these days, and the show did hold its audience solidly through all of the 2-hour premiere--but given the massive hype, not to mention the expense, it's a crushing disappointment. (Read our Pilot + 1 Review.) After a summer of giant special effects movies, were viewers tired of spectacle? Are dinosaurs just out of style? The FOX executives will be pondering all of that this morning, and waiting for the numbers to settle post-premiere before making any decisions. But this is an awfully costly show (thirteen Executive Producers) for a mediocre rating.

CBS: All hail the Eye! The CBS Monday line-up is starting to look distinctly Must-See-TVish, as every one of its sitcoms did a terrific number last night. HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER (which had a vintage episode last night) was 25% above last year's season average, and 2 BROKE GIRLS (which I simply don't get, but good for Kat Dennings--see our Pilot + 1 Review) built on its lead; then 2 1/2 MEN, even post-premiere event, took things to a new level with a spectacular 7.2, and MIKE & MOLLY held an excellent chunk of that lead-in. HAWAII 5-0 mostly looked good because of its fading competition, but a 3.3 is nothing to sneeze at in the 10PM slot.

NBC: The hole just gets deeper. With PLAYBOY CLUB slumping to a terrible 1.3, the advice here is not to get too emotionally attached. (Take a look at our Pilot + 1 Review.) And while SING-OFF's 1.7 was comparatively less awful, it's still mired in 4th place with nowhere to go. The signature decision of NBC's fall may have been holding off the network's powerhouse pair of The Voice and Smash till winter--they have to be wondering now if they chose right.

ABC: A 3.2 is a decent enough rating, and and second place for the night isn't bad, but DANCING WITH THE STARS is officially having an off-cycle, and the network will need to bring in an extremely strong cast for Spring (especially against The Voice) to avoid damaging the brand. Castle did perfectly well holding its lead.

CW: HART OF DIXIE not only held all of its GOSSIP GIRL lead-in, the show even built in its second half-hour, so it did all the network could have asked in its premiere. It's just hard to get excited about a 0.8 debut. With the arrival of Dixie, all of the CW's shows except its Thursday line-up are below a 1, and only Vampire Diaries remains able to launch a new show. Not good.

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THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "2 Broke Girls"

6:54 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, Behrs, cbs, kat dennings, meet monica velour, Pilot + 1, pilot reviews, sitcom, The Sked

A lot can happen between the creation of a TV pilot in the spring and production of episodes for the regular season: a writing/producing team is hired, audience focus groups weigh in, networks and studios (which may have had their own turnover in the off-season) give plenty of notes, both helpful and otherwise, and critics begin to rear their ugly heads. The results can include changes to tone, pace, casting and even story. Here at THE SKED, we're going to look past the pilots and present reviews of the first regular episodes of this year's new series as well.

Previously... on 2 BROKE GIRLS: Max (Kat Dennings) is a street-smart waitress at a greasy spoon in Brooklyn. Caroline (Beth Behrs) is the now-broke, formerly insanely rich daughter of a Bernie Madoff type, who until recently had been waited on hand and foot her entire life, her every wish indulged. Now that Caroline has nothing to her name, she applies for a job working alongside Max. They despise each other on sight, so is there any doubt they'll be odd couple roommates by the time the pilot is over? Also, Caroline discovers that Max bakes fantastic cupcakes, and she determines that the pair will make their fortune by selling them, just as soon as they've raised $250K in necessary capital. And Caroline imports her horse to live in Max's yard (every hovel having one of those).

Episode 2: There was a significant behind-the-scenes change at 2 Broke Girls after the pilot was produced: co-creator Whitney Cummings had her own sitcom picked up by NBC, so she had to reduce her involvement with the show (she's now credited as Executive Consultant), and her creating partner Michael Patrick King (from Sex and the City) has taken over sole control.

Any hope that this would improve the quality of the writing, however, goes unfulfilled. Here's a sample line from tonight's episode, a caution from Max when the Asian owner of the diner misspells Caroline's name on her name-tag: "You can't tell an Asian he made a mistake--he'll go in the back and fall on a sword." Then there's the bit when Caroline asks Max to open the back door of the apartment and let in some fresh air, leading to this witty response: "We've known each other 2 days and you're already asking for back door?" Ha HA.

Kat Dennings is terrifically funny and has real star quality, so it'd be nice to root for 2 Broke Girls, but when the big sight gag of the episode is Caroline falling hands and chest-first into either horse manure or mud (no doubt CBS Standards made them keep it ambiguous, although you wouldn't think it really could be), we're not in very classy or smart territory. To the extent there's any attempt at credibility here, one would note that making Caroline act like she's self-obsessed and brain-dead for virtually every beat of the episode (I doubt any actress could redeem the role of Caroline as written) and yet still asking us to believe that she's some kind of business genius is really stretching it. And thus far, none of the supporting cast is popping either, unless the diner cook who's aroused to hear that Max masturbates strikes you as hilarious.

None of this means 2 Broke Girls is going to flop (although it'll certainly fall off from last week's 2 1/2 Men-boosted rating). The show has the most comfortable spot on the CBS comedy schedule, between How I Met Your Mother and Men, so it's likely to be around for a while. The problem is, that isn't necessarily a good thing.

Original Verdict: Change the Channel

Pilot + 1: Keep Clicking

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THE SKED: Monday Ratings - Network Scorecard

10:27 AM | Labels: 2 1/2 Men, 2 broke girls, 20th century fox, ABC, castle, cbs, CW, dancing, Greenblatt, How I Met Your Mother, Monday, NBC, playboy, Sing-Off, The Sked, TV ratings

And... they're off! The 2011-12 broadcast TV season is underway, and already there are some clear winners and losers.

CBS: Last night was always going to be a good night for the Eye, but the extent of the good news is remarkable. The first un-Charlie Sheened 2 1/2 MEN was the most publicized event of the summer, and it delivered a massive 10.3 in the 18-49 demo (in comparison, May's season finale of American Idol did a 9.2). And the decision to schedule the pilot of 2 BROKE GIRLS as a follow-up at 9:30 proved a huge success with a 7.0; whatever happens to that show now, the network will never be able to say viewers didn't give it a look. Also great news for 2 Broke Girls: viewers were apparently longing for the return of its real lead-in HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER, which had an exceptionally strong Season 7 debut with 4.9. (Next week, though, it'll face the debut of FOX's hugely hyped Terra Nova.) The only slightly dark cloud for the night was HAWAII 5-0's 3.4, which (in preliminary numbers) won the time slot, but couldn't sustain the night's momentum and lost over 50% of its Broke Girls' lead-in.

NBC: Bob Greenblatt, welcome to network TV! The opening night of his first Fall schedule couldn't have gone any worse. The decision to push The Voice to mid-season and risk pitting THE SING-OFF against regular season competition proved disastrous, and the Peacock is now facing 2 hours every Monday of the fall with a potential sub-2 rating. Even worse, whatever chance THE PLAYBOY CLUB had of finding a toehold was damanged by its lead-in, and with its 1.6 rating, it becomes the instant leader in the fall TV dead pool. An awful debut is bad news for any show, but even worse for a serialized drama like Playboy, because viewers rarely gravitate to a series whose story is already underway. If the network doesn't give up on the show quickly, look for stunt casting and other desperate measures to hype viewer interest in the coming weeks.

ABC: Facing the CBS juggernaut, and without a giant name in this season's competition, DANCING WITH THE STARS did an OK 3.9, which was down significantly from last year's premiere. The better news at the Alphabet was CASTLE's solid 3.3 at 10PM. That show's number tends to come down a bit in final ratings because of Dancing overruns, but in any event the show benefited from NBC's failure in the time-slot (and a big season finale dliffhanger in May), and is now a strong player on the night.

FOX: They're waiting till next week to launch their new shows, probably because they didn't want the 2-hour Terra Nova premiere to have to face last night's 2 1/2 Men.

CW: On the shelf till next week.

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THE SKED: MONDAY Ratings September 19

8:41 AM | Labels: 2 broke girls, 2.5 Men, fall tv season, Monday, Numbers, Playboy Club, television, The Sked, TV ratings

Two and a Half Men premiered with a 10.3 Adult 18-49 rating, about equal to a good Sunday Night Football game but not at the level of an AFC Championship game, as CBS head Les Moonves boldly predicted. Nonetheless, this is a great number to welcome Ashton Kutcher to the show. Can the show maintain this level for the season? Of course, not. We estimate Two and a Half Men will settle into a high-5 rating next week and a high-4 in subsequent weeks, still well above our projected rating for the quarter.

The news is not good for NBC. Both The Sing-Off and Playboy Club were under a 2 rating and below our meager forecast for the entire quarter. The Sing-Off was a moderate success in December (against mostly repeat competition), but it just couldn't stand up to real competition of season premieres. And Playboy Club looks DOA, a 1.6 demo rating and only 5 million viewers 2+ (Castle attracted over 13 million viewers on ABC in the time period and Hawaii Five-O had 12 million). In all probability, the NBC numbers will remain the same in coming weeks or drift down slightly.

2 Broke Girls is off to a terrific start with a 7 demo rating. It should go down a high-3 rating next week in its normal 8:30 time period, but a low-4 rating is not impossible.On ABC, Dancing with the Stars opened about where we expected, while Castle continue to impress (only one-tenth of a rating point behind time period leader Hawaii Five-O). ABC's patience with Castle is admirable, and the show has slowly and increasingly taken good advantage of its Dancing lead-in.

MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
800 Dancing        3.7   3.6   3.9
900 Dancing        4.4   4.2   3.9
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6   3.3
CBS
800 How I Met      3.3   3.3   4.9
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0   3.2   7.0 (special 9:30 time)
900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2   10.3
930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6   9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7   2.7   3.4
NBC
800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3   1.9
900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5   1.8
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1   1.6
FOX
800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5   9/26
900 House          3.4   3.3   10/3
CW
800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a   9/26
900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a   9/26

An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.

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THE SKED: MONDAYS This Fall

5:38 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, broadcast, estimates, fall tv season, Monday, Numbers, projections, Terra Nova, The Sked, TV ratings

In one week, the curtain goes up on the new television season. To get you ready for the madness of Premiere Week on broadcast television, we have summarized the ShowBuzzDaily ratings estimates for MONDAYS this Fall. The first column in the chart below includes the original estimates from late May (after the network upfront presentations to advertisers), while the second column includes some tweaks we have made based on the quality of the pilot, our sense of how the series will hold up over time, and reaction to on-air promotion and marketing over the summer.

The main change in our estimates for Monday nights is the reduction of the expected rating for ABC's Dancing with the Stars. Reaction to the casting for this cycle has been rather muted. While we don't expect ratings to crash, the overall numbers should be down a touch. Most of the lost audience ends up on The Sing-Off on NBC according to our estimates, although the NBC numbers remain soft. We have raised the estimates for most of the CBS comedies given the extra attention the addition of Ashton Kutcher has received for Two and a Half Men, as well as the strong promotion for 2 Broke Girls. On FOX, we have reduced the ratings estimate for Terra Nova. While we continue to think the time-traveling, prehistoric family drama will open well, we continue to feel the series is vulnerable and unsustainable.

An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.

MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
800 Dancing        3.7   3.6
900 Dancing        4.4   4.2
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6
CBS
800 How I Met      3.3   3.3
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0   3.2
900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2
930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7   2.7
NBC
800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3
900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1
FOX
800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5
900 House          3.4   3.3
CW
800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a
900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a

Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN

Click below to read the ORIGINAL RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week (from May):

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN FULL WEEK

Click below to find out what to watch this fall:

MON TUE WED THU FRI WEEKEND

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THE SKED: Broadcast Network On-Air Promotion July 20

8:13 AM | Labels: 2 broke girls, cbs, FOX, Free Agents, NBC, new girl, on-air, Playboy Club, Prime Suspect, priorities, promotion, Terra Nova, Unforgettable, up all night, whitney, x-factor

Last night we had our first look at CBS's current promotional priorities in the one-hour Big Brother at 8:00 pm. With a fairly light on-air promo load, dramas got the lion's share of time: Unforgettable (one :30 spot) and Person of Interest (one :20). 2 Broke Girls was given one :10. The rest of the time went to the new summer show Same Name (one :20 and one :10), a series in which a celebrity and average person with the same name swap lives and learn important lessons. And there were two :15 promos with Julie Chen reminding us that we can get a live feed from the Big Brother bubble 24/7 on CBS.com, one of the most triumphant uses of the Internet to date.

Over on FOX, the two-hour So You Think You Can Dance was used effectively to support its current priorities, New Girl (one full minute of promo time in the form of two :30 spots) and Terra Nova (45 seconds -- one :30 and one :15). Also appearing Wednesday was X-Factor in a glossy :45 spot. FOX also supported its broadcast of the Emmy Awards with a :30 highlighting Jane Lynch as host and a :15 congratulating the FOX nominees in the show. The Monday cooking line-up was also supported with three spots totaling 1:10. Finally the network gave 20 seconds to In the Flow, a new summer sketch comedy. From the look of the promo, this series should come and go quietly.

Finally on NBC, the one-hour America's Got Talent results show split the time between Playboy Club (one :30), Prime Suspect (one :30) and Hank Azaria's Free Agents (:35 -- one :30 and one :05). Clearly NBC is being fair to this comedy and is rotating the emphasis on one or two of the three new comedies by night. Whitney got a fair amount of promotion last night (20 seconds total -- one :15 and one :05), while Up All Night was the one comedy shut out last night (all of five seconds in the hour).

Next week, we will look at ABC's priorties in The Bachelorette, the anchor of its successful Monday night.

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THE SKED: CBS Update

11:05 AM | Labels: 2 broke girls, cbs, fall premieres, How to be a gentleman, The Sked

CBS has joined FOX, ABC and The CW in announcing its Fall premiere schedule. (See Mitch Metcalf on the calculations that go into these announcements HERE). As with the other networks, most premieres will be the week of Sept. 19-25, with a few exceptions:

Wed Sept 14: early premiere of SURVIVOR

Mon Sept 19: 2 BROKE GIRLS premieres out of time slot, given the benefit of airing after the season opener of 2 1/2 MEN, which is sure to have a ratings bump that night over curiosity about the Sheen/Kutcher transition

Thurs Sept 29: HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN debuts a week late (probably so the network can use an extra THE BIG BANG THEORY the previous week to give PERSON OF INTEREST a good lead-in for its premiere).

That just leaves little old NBC...

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THE SKED PILOT REPORT: ABC's "Apt. 23"

2:23 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, ABC, Apt 23, Comedy, midseason, ritter, single camera, The Sked, TV pilot reviews

Disclaimer: Network pilots now in circulation are not necessarily in the form that will air in the Fall. Pilots are often reedited and rescored, and in some cases even recast or reshot. So these critiques shouldn't be taken as full TV pilot reviews, but rather as a guide to the general style and content of the new shows coming your way.

APT. 23 - Midseason on ABC: Potential DVR Alert

Like beasts onto Noah's ark, the paired new series continue this season. In the sitcom subgenre of "tough girl and naive newcomer share a NY apartment," the previous occupant 2 Broke Girls (see review here) is joined by ABC's APT. 23. Despite the similar premises, the two shows are easiliy distinguished: Apt. 23 is the good one.

Apt. 23 is one of two ABC series that needed to have its initial title changed for broadcast standards/sales reasons. The original, and more pungently accurate, title was "Don't Trust the Bitch In Apt. 23". (The other offending title was "Good Christian Bitches," which had its last word changed to "Belles.") Chloe (Krysten Ritter) is a cheerfully amoral denizen of Manhattan, constantly scamming and taking of advantage of anyone who crosses her path. When small-town girl June (Dreama Walker) watches her dream of a glamorous NY life fall apart (she came to town for a job at a mortgage company) and has to move into a shared apartment, Chloe unapologetically takes her for all she's worth. But June isn't without resources of her own; she gets her revenge. Naturally--this is a TV show, after all--Chloe finds this rather admirable, and by the pilot's end, the two are going to be friends.

As in most sitcoms, the premise only takes you so far: a show like this works (or doesn't) because of its writing and cast. Nahnatchka Khan, an American Dad writer, provides as much edge as network TV will allow, and some surreal wit: Chloe's best friend is the "real" James Van der Beek, depicted here as a Lothario who's more than happy to make use of his Dawson's Creek memorabilia to get women into bed. Even the small scenes have nice touches, as when June finds out her supposed new job has gone bust and watches the former employees running by with stolen giant copy machines and other equipment

The leads are a happy match. Ritter's been doing terrific work for the last few years on shows that range from the light comedy of Gilmore Girls to the stark drama of Breaking Bad; she grounds Chloe, while keeping the character's heart of gold more under wraps than the one of Kat Dennings' parallel character on 2 Broke Girls. Walker is a smart choice as the naive June, because as fans of The Good Wife know, she can play duplicitous as well as anyone, and is believably Chloe's match (unlike her airhead parallel in Broke Girls). The pilot is sharply paced by Jason Winer, who directed the initial Modern Family.

It's been reported that ABC's plan is to schedule Apt. 23 as a comedy hour with Cougar Town on Tuesdays 9-10PM, after the fall cycle of Dancing With the Stars ends. Although this would make for a fine hour of TV comedy, being that Cougar Town is perhaps the most famously underappreciated half-hour on the air, it would sadly place Cougar and Apt. 23 against FOX's New Girl (review here) and Raising Hope, in one of those head-to-head cage matches networks seem altogether too fond of staging. In other words, it'll be a good time to have a working DVR.

Read more about TV's new shows at THE SKED PILOT REPORT.

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THE SKED PILOT REPORT: CBS's "2 Broke Girls"

3:56 PM | Labels: 2 broke girls, burrows, cbs, Comedy, kat dennings, michael patrick king, Monday, pilot reviews, The Sked, whitney cummings

Disclaimer: Network pilots now in circulation are not necessarily in the form that will air in the Fall. Pilots are often reedited and rescored, and in some cases even recast or reshot. So these critiques shouldn't be taken as full TV pilot reviews, but rather as a guide to the general style and content of the new shows coming your way.

2 BROKE GIRLS - Monday 8:30PM on CBS: If Nothing Else Is On...

Kat Dennings deserves a better vehicle than 2 BROKE GIRLS. Dennings is one of those magnetic performers who can hold a complex of emotions just behind her eyes; she was superb in Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist and the indie Daydream Nation, although wide audiences will probably recognize her mostly from her dozen quippy lines as Natalie Portman's sidekick in Thor. Here at least she gets to be the lead, albeit in a creaky sitcom that barely makes it intact to the last commercial break.

Dennings is of course one of the broke girls, a smart-mouthed big-city lass named Max who waits tables at a greasy spoon diner in Williamsburg, Brooklyn (I ask this as a native of Brooklyn: a greasy spoon diner across the street from a theatre where Arcade Fire is playing? No one got the gentrification memo?) and also works days as a nanny. Into her life, thanks to contrivance level high even by network sitcom standards, comes Caroline (Beth Behrs), the daughter of someone whose name is fictionalized but who's clearly meant to be Bernie Madoff--she grew up a billionairess, but now that her financier dad is behind bars, she's penniless and needs to make a living. Max treats her with disdain at first, but of course by the time the pilot is over, they're the bestest of friends, not to mention roommates and business partners (Max bakes cupcakes).

OK, fine: mismatched roomies are a sitcom staple, and once the pilot is done, no one really cares how they had to be pushed together. But the script is mostly witless, something of a shock since it's co-written by Whitney Cummings, the season's "It Girl" with her own simultaneous NBC sitcom, and Michael Patrick King, shepherd of Sex and the City (Cummings will have a minimal amount to do with the series going forward, due to her Whitney duties). It's hard to believe the dialogue here was the best that pair could do: when Max touches the shoulder of a sleeping Caroline, who lashes out with a tazer, Caroline explains "I thought I was being raped!" leading to Max's retort: "That's not what rape feels like!" Or when Max strands Caroline to serve that crowd of Arcade Fire fans alone, the diner cashier (Garrett Morris) advises her: "You might as well be a cheerleader waking up drunk in the locker room at Duke University--you're screwed!" Or, in order to let us know that the woman Max nannies for (Brooke Lyons), is an airhead, they have her say of Caroline's situation: "Can you imagine having no money? I mean, you wouldn't even have any money!" I mean... ouch.

Despite having to deal with the heavy lifting of this kind of material, Dennings is likable and funny. Behrs is harder to judge; there are suggestions in the pilot that Caroline is shrewder than she looks, but mostly the character is just one-note dumb. No one else in the cast really registers--there's a lecherous Russian cook and an Asian-American manager (named Bryce Lee--haw!) at the diner. James Burrows, the living legend of multi-camera sitcoms (his credits include the pilots for Friends, Taxi, Will & Grace, and scores of others), delivers a smoothly professional product, but nothing that elevates the content.

CBS has given 2 Broke Girls its post-How I Met Your Mother slot, which is their prime real estate for shows that skew relatively young by the network's standards. Mitch Metcalf's Monday projections have it a strong second in the hour, behind Dancing With the Stars but ahead of FOX's much-touted Terra Nova. (The risk of such a strong lead-in is that even a decent rating may be problematic if the show squanders too much of Mother's numbers.) I root for the series to get better... or if it can't manage that, at least stay out of its star's way.

Read more about TV's new shows at THE SKED PILOT REPORT.

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