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Showing posts with label promo watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label promo watch. Show all posts

The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- through March 8

The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between March 4 and March 8, with about 10 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABCMissing has become the top promotional priority for ABC over the past week, now running at about 38 seconds per hour.  GCB receded to a still substantial 33 seconds per hour, with promos trumpeting its premiere viewership Sunday.  Some promos mentioned "11 million viewers fell in love", while others said "18 million viewers watched".  The first number refers to the average audience in any given minute, and the second measures who many people saw at least a few minutes of the show (the "total audience").  Rather than throwing two numbers around, why not pick one and stick with it?  Don't Trust the Bitch in Apt 23 and Scandal are up from previous weeks, now at 18 and 15 seconds, respectively. 

NBCFashion Star increased to 37 seconds per hour over the past week, clearly the #1 promo priority for the struggling network.  Awake has been dialed back to 24 seconds per hour, promoting the second episode and referencing the show's premiere performance.  Rather than saying a number, NBC said "millions were thrilled".  
        
CBSPerson of Interest increased again this past week to 28 seconds per hour.  The episode (featuring a cute baby and a "two men and a baby" theme in the promos) was one of the few original episodes on CBS among a sea of repeats, and the on-air promotion paid off as Person of Interest edged past its previous season high.  Big Bang Theory, also an original episode, moved into the top priority list, up to 11 seconds per hour after bumping around the 5-6 second range in recent weeks.  .      


FOXBob's Burgers, returning Sunday, moved up to 22 seconds per hour -- as heavy a commitment as FOX has given recently.  .     



                          PROMO WATCH

                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled
                    Past Week (Mar 4-8, 2011)

      ABC                          CBS
     Missing            38        Person of Interest 28
     GCB                33        Survivor           14
     Don't Trust the B  18        Good Wife          13
     Dancing w Stars    17        Big Bang Theory    11
     Scandal            15        Undercover Boss    11
     Once Upon a Time   11

     NBC                          FOX
     Fashion Star       37        Bob's Burgers      22
     Awake              24        Breaking In        11
     Smash              19        American Idol       9
     The Voice          14        New Girl            9
     Harry's Law        11        Alcatraz            9
    

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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- Update through March 1

The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 16 and March 1, with about 16 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABCGCB continues to be the top ABC priority as it heads toward Sunday night's premiere.  On-air promotion has been heavy, averaging 38 seconds per hour over the last two weeks.  Over the past week, the on-air promo commitment to GCB has been 46 seconds per hour, nearing saturation levels.  As we have seen with NBC's Awake, heavy promotion does not guarantee a high premiere rating.  A compatible lead-in and an easy to communicate premise helps, and GCB has both of those things going for it.  Check back later today for a forecast of GCB's premiere ratings.  Promotion for Missing (starring Ashley Judd) has picked up to 20 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and up to 25 seconds per hour over the past week).  Scandal (starring Kerry Washington) premieres later and has fallen down to 8 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and an almost non-existent 2 seconds per hour the past week).  It will be interesting to see if the creative approach for Scandal has been re-tooled when promos start airing again in heavier rotation.  

NBCAwake averaged 44 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (peaking at 46 seconds per hour this past week leading up to Thursday's premiere).  The 1.9 Adult 18-49 rating the debut received Thursday at 10 pm is surely a disappointment.  Yes, it built on its Up All Night lead-in, it was in first place in the time period (if you exclude cable and forget it faced repeats on ABC and CBS), it improved on the performance of The Firm, and it slightly beat Prime Suspect's premiere (by all of one tenth of a rating point).  But these are "world's tallest midget" comparisons.  Amazing that some television writers actually picked up on that spin.  The promos were given every opportunity to run, and the audience either was confused or simply didn't care. Next up is Fashion Star, which has averaged 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (and 18 seconds over the most recent week).  Look for its allocation to zoom as Awake levels come back down to Earth.  
        
CBSPerson of Interest stays in the top spot with 23 seconds over the past two weeks.  Even the repeat episode that aired Thursday received heavy support (19 seconds over the past week).  Undercover Boss has received substantial support, 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks and 21 seconds over the past week (actually making it the #1 priority this week only), emphasizing an emotional sell and a teary Popeye's Chicken CEO understanding the pain of Americans.  CBS is hoping Boss can bounce back from last week's 1.9 rating (which featured a rather cold, unemotional CEO, by the way) after the very promising 2.4 rated premiere.  Amid scripted series repeats, Survivor and Amazing Race stand out with original episodes and have also received 18 seconds per hour each.      


FOX.  The heat has started to be turned up on Touch starring Kiefer Sutherland, 19 seconds per hour over the past two weeks but up to 23 seconds per hour over the past week.  While not a full commitment when compared to the other networks, Touch is clearly FOX's priority.  Bob's Burgers clocks in at 11 seconds per hour (over both the past two weeks and the past week), while the network has eased off the gas for Breaking In (10 seconds per hour over the past two weeks and a barely noticeable 6 seconds per hour the past week). Not shown on the chart, Q'Viva (Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony scour the world for young talent) premieres Saturday for a short run.  The show has averaged 3 seconds per hour the past two weeks and 7 seconds per hour the past week (with a few spots in American Idol, for Ms. Lopez's benefit).     



                          PROMO WATCH

                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled
               Past Two Weeks (Feb 19-Mar 1, 2011)

      ABC                          CBS
     GCB                38        Person of Interest 23
     Missing            20        Undercover Boss    19
     Oscars             15        Amazing Race       18
     Revenge            10        Survivor           18
                                  Hawaii Five-O      13

     NBC                          FOX
     Awake              44        Touch              19
     Smash              20        Alcatraz           14
     Fashion Star       19        Bob's Burgers      11
     SVU                10        Breaking In        10
     The Voice          10       
    

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THE SKED MOVIE PROMO WATCH: OSCAR NIGHT EDITION





The Academy limits the number of movie ads that can be aired on the Oscar telecast (until recent years, they didn't allow any), so as not to make the night look like the awards are shilling for the studios.  (God forbid!)  It's not clear whether that's the reason only 2 movie promos made it into the telecast itself or if no one else wanted to pay the hefty tab for an Oscar spot, but several other studios did crowd into the pre-show.  A quick rundown:

MIRROR MIRROR (Universal) - 30 sec - The studio took out 2 different 30 second spots in the pre-show, both of which played up the movie's comedy, but this time concentrating on the dwarfs (who can apparently adjust their size) instead of Julia Roberts, as the first ads did.  The movie opens March 30, so the more intensive part of its campaign should soon be underway.  


THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate) - 30 sec - Pretty much the same spot the studio has been airing since the Super Bowl, with a few shots swapped out.  The campaign, so far, continues to emphasize the set-up of the Games rather than the more action-oriented Games sequences themselves that presumably take up the bulk of the movie.  Lionsgate is hoping this is going to be their Twilight, and with a March 23 opening around the corner, ads should be multiplying like crazy very soon.

THE LORAX (Universal) - 15 sec - A somewhat different spot from the ones we've seen.  It doesn't play up the quest part of the story (find the real trees!) or Danny DeVito and his "That's a woman?!?" line.  Instead, the promo plays off the question of whether Loraxes (Loraxi?) are real.  The movie opens Friday, so all its spots are now in heavy rotation.

JOHN CARTER (Disney) - 30 sec - Now Disney is attempting to make John Carter look like a critical hit, with quotes from reviewers no one has ever heard of (the cynical among us may doubt that the real reviews will be quite as thrilled).  The movie opens March 9 and as is widely known by now, the advance tracking is apparently dismal, so the spot is all action, trying to play up the spectacle bought by the reported $250-300M budget.

BRAVE (Disney) - 30 sec - A very classy spot (carefully timed to run just after Best Animated Film was presented) with just one line of voice-over and gorgeous visuals.  It seems designed by Pixar to wipe the taste of Cars 2 out of our mouths long before Brave arrives in June.

TITANIC (Paramount) - 30 sec - You play Celine Dion, show Kate and Leo, have a few shots of the boat going down, and announce that it's now in 3D--that's pretty much the campaign, and what more do they need?  The spot ended with a quick URL for a website where people can buy tickets for a "sneak preview" the night before the official April 4 opening.

Of course, the most notorious movie "ad" of the night was Sacha Baron Cohen's shameless huckstering of THE DICTATOR, which bought the movie millions in free pre-release publicity about his expected awards antics.  The Academy, while letting him do this thing, kept him the hell off their air, including the official pre-show.  Nevertheless, he was able to get plenty of media attention by dumping an urn of "Kim Jong-Il's ashes" on Ryan Seacrest, live on E!   Mission accomplished.



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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- Update through February 23

GCB and the Oscars are the big bets for ABC in recent days, while NBC continues to make an extraordinary push for Awake.  CBS is hoping to take Person of Interest to another level, and FOX just doesn't seem to be making any choices about what to promote hard.  The most recent Promo Watch numbers are based on prime time broadcast network programming between February 9 and 23, with about 18.5 hours of programming sampled for each network over that period.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


ABCGCB has become the top priority for ABC over the past few weeks, now averaging 21 seconds per hour sampled in prime time.  ABC has been repeating the same 30-second spot over and over (the rhyming spot with "witches" and "riches" instead of the expected "bitches" from the original series title).  The spot is not particularly clever, but ABC is hoping the repetition of the show's premise will cut through.  With a last minute rush of Oscar spots (often over 30 seconds per hour on recent nights), the Academy Awards spots have moved into the #2 priority position, averaging 17 seconds per hour over the past two weeks (after being in the high single digits recently).  Of note, the spots promote the Oscar app and Oscar.com almost as much as the show itself.  (Clips of the still niche The Artist and visuals of Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo are not going to persuade marginal viewers to tune in.)  Revenge remains a fairly important priority (16 seconds per hour), as ABC keeps trying to make it break out  from the 2.5 range into the high-2 rating area.  Scandal is now averaging 11 seconds an hour (up sharply from the middle single digits).  That number is going to continue to rise as we move through March.  Missing (starring Ashley Judd as a CIA agent/ mom searching for her son) is holding at 9 seconds per hour.  It looks like it has the production quality of The Firm, and -- just a hunch -- will not receive much higher promotion levels in coming weeks, as opposed to the Shonda Rhimes project Scandal.

NBCAwake premiering next Thursday at 10 in the dead zone time period is now averaging an amazing 41 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  If it fails it won't be for lack of trying.  With Up All Night as its lead in, Awake's success will be based on the inherent appeal of the show's premise, which is described in every spot.  We shall see.  Smash is holding at a very strong 25 seconds per hour over the past two weeks.  As the ratings tumble each week (and during each quarter hour that airs), the network is trying every promo trick in the book to get people to hang on.  Last week it was the sex appeal of the characters and storylines.  This week, it's a guest star -- Nick Jonas?!?  Maybe he has a high Q-score with the target audience for a drama about mounting a Broadway musical, but it seems a little desperate or cheesy for a show that relies on critic quotes like "Wow.  Just wow."  Fashion Star is holding at 20 seconds per hour, a very solid level for a new reality show.  The Voice, at 10 seconds per hour, is just enough to keep its name out there, and NBC is using the brief promos effectively to dub the night "Must See Monday".  (At least for the first two hours of the night, it's a very legitimate claim.) 


CBSPerson of Interest has been anointed by CBS as the new show most worthy of a midseason push.  At 21 seconds per hour the past two weeks, the JJ Abrams-produced freshman number is the #1 priority for the network, which clearly want to see if its ratings can break out of the low-3 range to above a 3.5 rating.  Undercover Boss has received a substantial investment of time the past several nights, moving its average into double digits (11 seconds per hour).  That is low compared to Survivor (19 seconds) and Amazing Race (17), but it is significant for a Friday show, and CBS hopes it can build on the show's promising initial ratings on the tough night.  Just missing the chart below is Late Show with David Letterman (9 seconds per hour), substantially more than the Tonight Show with Jay Leno (5 seconds) or Jimmy Kimmel Live (3 seconds).  Unless the guest is truly newsworthy, however, late night ratings are surprisingly inelastic to promo efforts.   


FOXBreaking In has edged up to 12 seconds per hour, up from 10 recently.  And the return of Touch is at a barely-committed 10 seconds per hour.  And pity poor Bob's Burgers (not shown on the chart below) whose return is starting with a base of 6 seconds per hour.  Not that any of those shows will make much of an impact in any scenario -- it's just that FOX doesn't seem to be betting on anything.   



                          PROMO WATCH

                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled
                 Past Two Weeks (Feb 9-23, 2011)

      ABC                          CBS
     GCB                21        Person of Interest 21
     Oscars             17        Survivor           19
     Revenge            16        Amazing Race       17
     The River          14        Unforgettable      12
     Castle             13        Undercover Boss    11
     Scandal            11

     NBC                          FOX
     Awake              41        Alcatraz           13
     Smash              25        Breaking In        12
     Fashion Star       20        Glee               12
     The Voice          10        Touch              10
                                  New Girl           10
    

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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- Update through February 19

Over halfway through the February ratings sweep, the broadcast networks continue to exhibit very different strategies in allocating their precious on-air promotion time to market and launch new programs as well as supporting their existing schedules.  (Click "read more" to see the latest chart.)


NBC.  NBC continues to promote fewer priorities each with massive levels of support.  Over the past few weeks in prime time, NBC has devoted 29 seconds per hour on average to the new drama Awake, the highest level on any network.  The complexity of the story (when is he awake? when is he dreaming? are there two dream worlds or just one?) requires longer-length spots (most often 45-second lengths in this case).  And because of NBC's ratings shortfalls, these spots are running very frequently to extend the campaign's reach as much as possible.  As the table below illustrates, a 20-second average per hour is a high allocation for most networks.  How is NBC doing this? Quite simply by promoting far fewer programs at the roughly 5 second per hour maintenance level for exiting shows.  Many marginal shows (and there are plenty to choose from on the NBC schedule) are getting zero promotion to create more time for future shows.  Smash also continues to receive a high level of support (26 seconds per hour on average).  Notably, the campaign has shifted away from tired lines like "She's a STAR!" or "She glows!" to a reliance on quotes from superb critical reviews and most recently this past week many lines suggesting sex (who is sleeping with whom, who is straight and who is gay) will play a major role in the next few episodes.   The third priority, Fashion Star (18 seconds per hour), would be #1 on most other networks is also being hit hard, still promising that viewers can buy the winning designs in stores the next day.  Finally, The Voice (10 seconds per hour) celebrates the playful judges who will "charm" and "flirt" with the contestants and the audience.

ABCRevenge (19 seconds per hour) has been the #1 priority on ABC for the past few weeks.  The network really wants to make the show work, promising it's "not too late" to join the fun.  But history shows it is incredibly tough to actually convince viewers to join a serialized drama in progress.  GCB (15 seconds per hour) is being promoted most often with a 30-second rhyming spot that drops the word "bitches" (from the show's original title) just as one expects to hear it uttered (with not so clever rhymes like "riches" or "stitches" or "witches").   But at 15 seconds per hour, this is far from a full court press.  Other shows (The River, Castle, Cougar Town and the Grey's Anatomy/Private Practice crossover event) received decent levels at 10 seconds per hour or more, but nothing is really receiving the all-in bet of a winner.  Curiously, the Oscars is the next level down (at 9 seconds per hour).  Perhaps it is a wise decision.   The lack of broadly appealing movies among the nominees and the dearth of close races in many categories will probably make the Academy Awards one of the lowest-rated in history, no matter how many promos they throw at it.  And let's face it, the return of Billy Chrystal as host will not draw many viewers under 40 or 50.   New dramas Missing starring Ashley Judd (7 seconds) and Scandal (5 seconds) come later in the spring.  If the promo allocation numbers start increasing for either, we will know how ABC really feels about the shows.  Scandal is promoted almost exclusively inside Shonda Rhimes' own real estate Thursdays 9-11 pm (inside Grey's and Private Practice). 


CBS.  The return of Survivor and Amazing Race (each at 17 seconds per hour) were the main priorities the past few weeks.  As established franchises, they certainly did not warrant much more time. Person of Interest (15 seconds) and Unforgettable (13 seconds) represent an attempt to take these freshman dramas to another level, with the former having a much better chance of inching up in the ratings than the former.   A high number of CBS shows receive about 5 seconds per hour, barely maintenance/ reminder levels, but the CBS audience is loyal and does need much convincing to stay with what they like and know.  


FOX. The #1 priority on FOX is a lowly 14 seconds per hour for Glee.  Everything is changing, the spot promises, suggesting weddings and pregnancies might be coming.  The audience is skeptical and savvy, however, and this spot feels like it might be over-promising.   The one new show getting a decent level of promotion is Breaking In (with Megan Mullally joining the cast), but at only 10 seconds per hour, the spots will have limited ability to cut through the clutter.  With so many key shows in decline and nothing new on the horizon, FOX just isn't sure what to push.   



                          PROMO WATCH
                    Top Priorities by Network
              On-Air Promo Seconds per Hour Sampled

                 Past Two Weeks (Feb 6-19, 2011)
      ABC                          CBS
     Revenge            19        Survivor           17
     GCB                15        Amazing Race       17
     The River          13        Person of Interest 15
     Castle             11        Unforgettable      13
     Cougar Town        11        NCIS Los Angeles   10
     Grey's/Private     10
      crossover 


     NBC                          FOX
     Awake              29        Glee               14
     Smash              26        American Idol      13
     Fashion Star       18        Alcatraz           11
     The Voice          10        New Girl           10
                                  Breaking In        10
    

 
 

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THE SKED'S MOVIE PROMO WATCH: Grammys Edition




Tonight's Grammy Awards were inevitably somewhat haunted by the awful loss of Whitney Houston barely 24 hours earlier, a tragedy that seemed to have been going on for a decade yet was still shocking when it came to its fruition.  Nevertheless, the show found time to include innumerable music numbers, some of them saluting artists in the CBS demo like The Beach Boys, Paul McCartney, Glen Campbell and Bruce Springsteen, but also an odd Nicki Minaj salute to The Devil Inside, and what appeared to be Katy Perry's very public middle finger to Russell Brand.  Although the actual awards always seem to be of secondary importance on this broadcast, everything that wasn't nailed down went (deservedly, in one listener's opinion) to Adele. 

The Grammys aren't quite the Super Bowl when it comes to movie ads--studios don't pay millions to promote films that won't be opening for months--but it's still a show that gathers a relatively young (especially for CBS) and clearly, considering the featured movies, female audience, and as such it serves as a showcase for quite a few films opening soon.  Here's what the show had for movie fans:


THE LORAX (Universal) - :30 - Featuring stars Taylor Swift and Zac Efron, who have been known to warble a tune every now and then.

THE VOW (Sony/Screen Gems) - :15 - The only current release in the show, this spot was notable for making Vow look much more like a romantic comedy than it actually is.  This could indicate the studio's hope to broaden its audience beyond the weepie crowd as the picture continues in theatres.

JOHN CARTER (Disney) - :30 - One of the few action movies that figured into the evening (possibly on the theory that a shirtless Taylor Kitsch transcends genre).  This was the first promo that attempted to explain just who John Carter is and what what he's doing on Mars, which made it a welcome relief after the incomprehensible Super Bowl spot.

THIS MEANS WAR (20th) - :30 - The film is opening Friday (with sneak previews on Tuesday night), so its ads are in high rotation throughout all network schedules.  One change in this spot from the first wave is that it shows the moment when Reese Witherspoon realizes that both her beaus Tom Hardy and Chris Pine know each other.  This makes her appear a little less clueless, and also allows her to deliver the music-appropriate line "I'm Yoko!"

PROJECT X (Warners) - :30: - Yet another "found footage" movie, this time recounting a teen party from hell and (not coincidentally) produced by Todd Phillips, director of the Hangover movies.  This is a very young-skewing picture, so its promos probably won't be making many more appearances on CBS.

THE HUNGER GAMES (Lionsgate) - :30 - Mostly the same promo that aired on the Super Bowl, but slightly re-edited to emphasize heroine Katniss' feelings about leaving her sister in lieu of spectacle.

21 JUMP STREET (Sony/MGM) - :30 - The same cut-down version of the theatrical trailer that's been running for a while.  It'll be interesting to see if the giant success of The Vow prompts some Channing Tatum-intensive spots between now and the opening.

ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) - :15 - The other action movie of the night, this promo, despite its short length, found time to name the country music stars who supplied songs for the soundtrack.

GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate) - :15 - The latest from Tyler Perry, it appears to be about a man named Deeds who decides he has to start doing good.  No one can accuse the title of being false advertising.  (Coming soon from Tyler Perry:  "Return of the Man In Woman Clothes.")

WANDERLUST (Universal) ) - :30 - Like most of the spots for this Paul Rudd/Jennifer Aniston comedy, this plays up the "Omigod, they're hippies!" aspect of the commune where the lead couple goes to recharge their batteries.


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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- Of Valentine's Day and The Voice

With four days of mid-season promo monitoring under our belts (Monday-Thursday), the top five (or so) priorities for each broadcast network are listed in the table below.  ABC spent the bulk of its promotional time supporting important current series in the February ratings sweep: Revenge has been the #1 priority as the network aims to push the Hamptons series out of the mid-2 rating area toward a high-2 or maybe even a 3.  The promos state "it's never too late" to get hooked.  History indicates it is extremely difficult to convince an audience to join a serialized drama in progress, but ABC clearly believes it has the goods.  Plus, genuine hit Modern Family airs an hour before Revenge, and all they have to do is persuade a few tenths of rating point of the hit comedy's audience to stick around at 10 pm and suddenly they can win the Wednesday at 10 pm hour.  Not surprisingly, Modern Family itself was the #2 priority (Greg Kinnear guest starring this week and Valentine's Day next week).  Guest stars Kim Kardashian and NASCAR's Tony Stewart fueled promotion for Last Man Standing, while Cougar Town made the top five as ABC pushes its return next week.  New drama GCB (Good Christian Bitches) actually ranked #6 (tied with promotion for next week's Grey's Anatomy/ Private Practice crossover event), but those two shows were virtually tied for #5 so we extended the list for ABC.  GCB looks loud and colorful and brash and tacky in the promos, complete with silly rhyming songs.  It's either a hit or a complete bomb -- nothing in between.  Finally, we only saw the spot once in Grey's Anatomy, but a decent 30-second promo for Scandal (also from Shonda Rhimes) aired, an early taste of what should be a significant campaign for the early-April drama starring Kerry Washington.


NBC took some time for a victory lap -- promos for The Voice (#4 priority this week) noted "70 million" people have seen the show, which is now the "#1 singing competition show."  War has been declared, and let the sniping and bitching begin in NBC and FOX promos and in press interviews.  The 70 million claim is certainly a "total audience" stat, the number of viewers 2 or older who watched at least a few minutes of the post-Super Bowl telecast Sunday or the two-hour time period premiere Monday.  In addition, the Monday average audience rating for The Voice exceeded both American Idol telecast ratings this week.  FOX will point out that The Voice ratings will probably settle in coming weeks, when a fairer comparison can be made between the regular performance of the two shows.  Promos for Smash took a less shrill approach and leaned on the critical reception for the show in classy spots that singing and little to no voice-over.  Awake (#2) promotion is well underway, hammering away at the concept of the parallel worlds of the protagonist (which world is a dream?).  While interesting conceptually, the promos do not make the series particularly compelling.  With few current series in good enough shape to deserve heavy promotional support, NBC continued to play for the future by also pushing Fashion Star.  Remember, you not only get to watch Elle MacPherson, Jessica Simpson and Nicole Ritchie but also can buy the clothes you see designed in stores the next day. 

CBS was more like ABC in strategy: promote shows coming up in the next few days.  NCIS received support for its 200th episode, and NCIS Los Angeles received (for CBS) an extremely high level of support during the landmark NCIS episode (promos in almost every break, complete with "coming up in X minutes" voice-overs and graphics).  By the way, the 200th NCIS episode was unintentionally funny, providing more laughs than many comedies: the inferior Matrix-like, slow-mo bullet headed for Mark Harmon, the ham-handed device to look back at his life and the previous 199 episodes.  Not surprisingly, The Grammys is getting its fair share of promotion, and the longer spots for the music awards show were often followed by short-length spots for 60 Minutes, featuring an interview with singer Adele.  

FOX spent most of its time propping up the sagging American Idol (the move from auditions to Hollywood week and the drama associated with a collapsing contestant).  Alcatraz also received significant support, but the promos continue to be absolutely generic, re-selling the show's premise and giving no specific reason to watch this week.  Glee, like Idol, is another declining asset gobbling up promotion time.  Shockingly, the New Girl-related "Hey Girl" Interactive Music Video project online received enough mentions to land in the top five priorities.  The spots were short but plentiful enough to add up to a significant investment in time.  Online activity and social media extensions are clearly important to each network's future (hell, even CBS put "#ncis200" on screen right after the NCIS episode aired to harness the tweeting power of the web-savvy NCIS audience).  But wouldn't it better to use that time to promote next week's episode of New Girl, one of the few assets on the FOX schedule with upside?

                     Promo Watch
             Top Five Promotional Priorities
                     (with ties)
                    Feb 6-9, 2012

     ABC                            CBS
     Revenge                        NCIS Los Angeles
     Modern Family                  Person of Interest
     Cougar Town                    The Grammys
     Once Upon a Time               The Mentalist
     Last Man Standing              NCIS
     GCB
     Grey's/Private Crossover

     FOX                            NBC
     American Idol                  Smash
     Alcatraz                       Awake
     Glee                           Fashion Star
     Hey Girl Interactive           The Voice
      Music Video (New Girl)        Who Do You Think You Are?
     Mobbed 

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The Sked: PROMO WATCH

NBC used its 9:30 half hour to keep hammering away at the debut of Smash, coming up at long last in mere minutes.  The network devoted 90 seconds -- one 30-second spot and one 60-second spot -- in a half hour which was peaking with a very strong 7.7 rating.  The full-minute spot focused on Katharine McPhee's character (reminding us "she's a STAR!" and "she glows!").  Not much in the new way of new material and certainly not a fresh creative take, but the spot was elegantly cut.  At 9:59, The Voice host Carson Daly summed up the second night of blind auditions and set up Smash as another show about chasing your dreams through performance, immediately tossing to the start of the new drama.  A very well-formatted night, and now it is up to Smash itself to see if it can bring viewers in the next few weeks and not lose them at the rate it did over the course of the hour as the audience finally saw the real thing.  

NBC also hit Friday's Grimm, emphasizing the monster of the week, a very scary female spider with a lot of graphics and special visual tricks (more than just a standard clip spot).  In terms of new programs, Fashion Star was promoted partly by emphasizing host Elle MacPherson and mentor Jessica Simpson but also by pushing the curious benefit that viewers can buy the clothes they see on the show the next day in stores.  Perhaps that attribute tested well in research, yet it hardly seems like a reason to make an appointment to view or to set your DVR. 

CBS on-air promotion, disciplined as always, focused mainly on shows coming up later in the evening or the next day.  Without many new shows to launch, CBS concentrates on its successful core schedule with a relatively high number of shorter-length spots.  NCIS and NCIS Los Angeles are promoted as one with combo spots, while Unforgettable pushed the well-used device of a ticking clock to stop a sniper before he strikes again, as well as announcing the arrival of Jane Curtin to the cast of the drama that is looking to break out of mediocre ratings.  Also, a few mentions for Sunday's Grammy Awards.

ABC hit GCB (Good Christian Bitches) last night with a bright, colorful spot filled with fighting and catty comments.  It generally looks loud and boisterous and is either going to resonate with ABC's core female audience spectacularly or just land with a thud.  The final line of the GCB promo ("and ye shall receive") was echoed in a Last Man Standing promo which proclaimed "you've been praying for a full hour" -- not only a full hour of Tim Allen's comedy but one with guest star Kim Kardashian!  The spot for Grey's Anatomy did not lean toward answered prayers, just bad writing.  Paraphrasing: Thursday's episode is all about Valentine's Day, all about heart and HEART STOPPING DRAMA!  I'll pray for a better promotional theme next time.  Tomorrow's premiere of The River received very little attention, but remember we are not sampling the entire night of each network so we might have missed other important elements.  Finally, the trailer for Castle emphasized guest star Jennifer Beals next week in the start of a "two-week event".

FOX has a little of everything last night: Glee with guest star Ricky Martin, American Idol moving to Hollywood after the auditions (complete with collapsing contestants and medics on the set), a few hits for the Alcatraz episode that were so unmemorable it is no wonder the telecast plunged to a 2.2 rating, and short reminder spots for The Finder and Touch.

We will not be posting promo-second numbers until we have several days of data under out belt -- look for those charts later this week or early next week.

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Coming Soon: ShowBuzzDaily Promo Watch Returns

Starting Tuesday, ShowBuzzDaily's Promo Watch will return on a regular basis.  Kicking off with Monday night's broadcast network programming we will sample roughly an hour a night per network and keep a running tally of the promotional activity within the shows.  We will tend to evaluate highly-rated programs, as those are the most valuable pieces of real estate on the schedule and reflective of the most important priorities.

For example, Monday night we will sample 2 Broke Girls and Two and a Half Men on CBS, House on FOX, the last half hour of The Voice and the first half hour of Smash on NBC, and the first half hour of The Bachelor and the final half hour of Castle.  Because of time limitations and DVR recording capacity, we won't cover every minute of each network's programming, but we will rotate the sampled programs each week to make sure a broad spectrum of genres are represented.  

In addition to the tally of on-air promotional seconds for each marketing priority, we will also point out shifts in creative strategy and offer our take on the effectiveness of various spots or campaigns.  Which ones stand out from the clutter?  Which ones simply fall flat?  Additionally, our resident critic, Mitch Salem, will add his perspective and might even add his point of view of The CW's promo activity (since he considers it a network) as well as adding his insights from key basic and pay cable promos. 

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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- NBC's Super Bowl Sunday

Before we take a look at NBC's promo activity in the extravaganza that is the Super Bowl, let's review our forecast of the game itself.  We aim for precision in our predictions at ShowBuzzDaily, and while both Metcalf and Salem correctly predicted the winner of Super Bowl 46 (sorry, no Roman numerals here), Metcalf was the closest in terms of winning margin and points scored.  Margin of Victory -- Metcalf prediction (3), Salem prediction (7), Actual (4).  Points scored -- Metcalf prediction (51), Salem prediction (67), Actual (38).  Not bad, but we can do better next year.

The Super Bowl presents an incredible opportunity for the network lucky enough to broadcast the game every three years.  No other television event offers 100+ million viewers in an average minute or over 150 million viewers over the course of the game.  And with heightened viewer attention during the commercial breaks (the audience actually watches and focuses on the commercial pods), a network has every incentive to put their best, most persuasive on-air promos to work.

Closing the Sale.  Often the Super Bowl is used as the ultimate scheduling vehicle, to launch a new show.  Clearly, Smash ("from executive producer Steven Spielberg, starring Academy Award winner Angelica Huston, Emmy Award winner Debra Messing, Broadway sensation Megan Hilty, and introducing Katharine McPhee" -- see, repetition works!) is the focus of NBC's midseason.  The idea is simple: re-launch the more familiar The Voice immediately following the game (launching a drama can be difficult with an exhausted and somewhat inebriated audience -- recent history shows a reality show goes down much easier) and use a rejuvenated Voice the next night to launch Smash with a much more compatible audience demographically.  

So the goal is to use promotion time in the big game to build the Smash marketing campaign to a crescendo and create a sense of urgency for Monday's telecast.  "It's almost here" or "it finally arrives tomorrow" or at least "you are going to want to venture into that empty building known as NBC Monday at 10" are the intended take-aways from the final Smash promotion.  Instead, tonight's spots for Smash felt like more of the same.  Debra Messing telling us for the millionth time "She's a star" with an incredulous look on her face, or Angelica Huston snapping "We don't need your stupid money!" before she pours a drink on the guy.  Less of an urgency-creating crescendo, the finale to the campaign seemed like a repeat of a promo reel playing to the relatively small audience already interested in the making of a Broadway show.  For the rest of America, there was little reason give the show a look.  Smash received more than it's fair share of time in the game -- it just felt like that time wasn't maximized.  Did it close the sale?  The show's core audience was sold when the series was announced, but for the bonus audience that will make Smash a hit, the jury is still out. 

Promoting the Next Show.  Some network promotion is just basic communication: stay tuned for The Voice coming up after the game.  With more frequent, shorter-length spots and graphics, NBC effectively communicated its postgame entertainment show.  Parenthetically, the postgame show actually ended early at about 10:19 pm, when a clearly frustrated and unusually flustered Bob Costas announced there would be no more interviews.  (How dare a sulking Bill Belichick deprive America of the greatest of sports traditions -- the losing coach interview?  Now THAT is fun to watch, especially when the loser refuses to congratulate the other team or admit they basically sucked that night.)  So The Voice started early and NBC's excellent Network Operations team was ready with a "coming up in seconds" spot.  That early start time will pay off with somewhat higher ratings for the telecast, a bonus of at least 3-4 extra Adult 18-49 rating points.  Unfortunately, the early start time will mean that anyone who recorded the premiere at the scheduled 10:30 pm start time missed 11 minutes of the show.  

After Smash and The Voice, a few other programs were promoted in the game, in most cases one spot only for each.

Teasing the Next Big Thing.  Another common technique is to use the Super Bowl to start a campaign or tease an upcoming show.  America's Got Talent, the centerpiece of NBC's summer and the #1 show in that season, is getting a new judge as Howard Stern replaces Piers Morgan.  In a specially shot promo, Howard is seen hosing lame contestants with, you know, a fire hose from the wings of a stage.  The spot worked on a number of levels: it was fresh, it was funny, it didn't take the show itself too seriously, and it let Howard be Howard (not trying to re-make him into a fake wholesome persona).  

Teasing Another Not So Big Thing.  The new drama Awake (the next soldier up Pork Chop Hill Thursdays at 10 after The Firm went down) was also promoted.  But the spot looked like a generic promo for a random new drama and definitely not the next big thing.  It's not that the show looked bad, the spot itself just didn't seem special enough for the big leagues of the most-watched night of the year. 

Supporting Current Shows.  In contrast, four returning shows (the Thursday 8-10 pm comedy block) were given support in a specially-produced mockumentary spot.  With the serious voice-over of Frontline's Will Lyman (if it wasn't him, it was a damn good sound alike), a poor family in what looks to be Eastern Europe is enjoying NBC Comedy on a tiny black and white TV -- all except for the unlucky family member outside who has to hand-crank the generator to bring the uproarious comedy to the humble home.  We give the spot an A for effort, but an F for salesmanship.  The comedies themselves didn't seem any funnier after the promo, and the NBC sales department probably cringed that a new target demo was visualized: downscale, older viewers outside the United States loving NBC.

Wasting Valuable Network AirtimeAnd finally, there's the "Brotherhood of Man" spot that aired in the pregame show and is available here.   Less of a promo and more of an extended network image spot (full length version is over three minutes), this harkens back to the elaborate song and dance routines from the 1970s and 1980s ("Just Watch Us Now!") when the broadcast networks had no competition and could get away with its stars singing silly tunes about how great their network's shows were.  Basically, this 2012 update starts with the 30 Rock cast watching the Super Bowl as Alec Baldwin starts to warble a song (Tina Fey beats the audience to it by asking, "Why are you singing?") and soon the casts of The Office, SNL, SVU, Community, Parks & Recreation, Today, and even Jay Leno are singing and dancing (some in elaborate and enthusiastic routines, others looking like Seal Team 6 was just off stage making it all happen).  It's all about entertaining, the brotherhood and sisterhood of entertaining, NBC being the place for all this entertainment.  Judge it for yourself.  

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THE SKED'S MOVIE PROMO WATCH: Super Bowl Edition


In these heady moments after the NY Giants' triumphant victory over the New England Patriots (I'd say "Sorry, New England fans," but I wouldn't mean it), let's take a moment to look at the other major event of the evening:  the ads for upcoming movies.  (Mitch Metcalf will offer a separate take on NBC's use of its promo time during the broadcast, which somewhat surprisingly wasn't as Smash-intensive as one might have expected.)



The average cost of a 30-second ad on the Super Bowl is $3.5M, so this isn't where you'll see promotion for the latest Sundance sensation.  With just a couple of exceptions, the ads were almost all for big-budget action extravaganzas, split between movies opening in the next few weeks and summer tentpoles looking to generate some buzz.

They were also, without any exception at all, unimpressive--basically lazy cut-down versions of trailers that have already been running for weeks if not months.  

Actually, the most interesting movie-ish ads of the night were the ones that weren't for movies at all, but which used motifs and stars from Hollywood.  These included an Audi ad inspired by Twilight and its young vampires (are bright headlights really such a selling point that it was worth $3.5M to plug them?), a follow-up to last year's VW ad that featured Star Wars characters--including a junior Darth Vader--in an outer-space caintina, a Hyundai piece in which all the employees sang the theme from Rocky (way to be topical, Hyundai!), the much-hyped Honda ad that riffed off Ferris Bueller's Day Off (but disappointingly featured only Matthew Broderick from the original cast).  Most notable of all was probably an ad for Dodge that didn't relate back to any specific movie, but which by using Clint Eastwood as its gnarled, spirit-of-America spokesman seemed like Hollywood history personified.  (It also resembled a Presidential campaign spot so closely that you half-expected it to end with "My name is Clint Eastwood and I approved this ad.")

Anyway, here were the movie spots themselves.  Note that this list covers the Super Bowl telecast itself (including the pre-kickoff half hour) and not the pre- or post- shows.  Lionsgate, for one, saved a few bucks by airing its Hunger Games ad during the pre-show.  For whatever reason, the movie commercials were mostly crammed into the game's 2d quarter.

SAFE HOUSE (Universal) - 30 seconds pre-kickoff:  One of the many trailer cut-downs, for a movie opening next Friday.  Mostly a quick-cut montage of things blowing up, interspersed with Denzel Washington looking intense and Ryan Reynolds looking clueless.  (As it happens, that's a fairly accurate summary of the movie.)

THE DICTATOR (Paramount) - 30 seconds pre-kickoff:  This spot for the Sacha Baron Cohen comedy opening in May at least put in a little effort by including an NBC gag (albeit a lame one).  After that, it recycled what appear to be the movie's 2 big jokes:  Megan Fox playing herself for a Kardashian gag (ha ha, they're hairier than she is) and the track race where Cohen's dictator shoots all his competitors.

BATTLESHIP (Universal) - 60 seconds 2d Quarter:  Universal spent $7M on this spot to tell us 2 things:  whatever the title says, Battleship is really Transformers 4, and please forget about the "battleship" part.  There were far more shots of round fiery alien things (which seem to have borrowed Mickey Rourke's laser whip from Iron Man 2), jet planes, and buildings blowing up than there were shot of the title boat.  Also, Liam Neeson is stalwart and Taylor Kitsch is heroic, which could conveniently be compared to--

JOHN CARTER (Disney) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter:  Another Kitsch vehicle (in this one he's shirtless), and the worst ad of the evening, thanks to an amateurish looking visual concept that had the footage from the movie receding until it was tiny and fading into a mosaic of the movie's title, made up of even tinier footage.  It made the Disney marketing department look like they'd all just gotten their first iPad app.  The footage itself continues to make the incredibly expensive Carter, which opens in just a month, seem like Dances With Wolves set on a planet full of Jar-Jar Binks lookalikes. 

THE LORAX (Universal) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter:  The oddest choice for a Super Bowl ad (one has to wonder whether the preponderance of Universal titles indicates a cut rate for NBC's home studio), this animated Dr. Seuss comedy opens next month.  The promo itself was mostly footage from the trailer, and continues to push hard on the Danny DeVito "That's a woman?!?" line. 

STAR WARS EPISODE 1:  THE PHANTOM MENANCE (20th/Lucasfilm): Thinking of Jar-Jar Binks... in case you didn't know, this ad told you it's back this Friday, and in 3D.  Jake Lloyd fans, order your tickets now.  

THE AVENGERS (Paramount/Disney) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter (the 2-minute warning slot):  This is the kickoff movie to the summer movie season, and it used its 30 seconds unimaginatively but effectively.  The whole spot was basically summed up in its final shot, which circled around for a roll-call of all the familiar characters who will appear in the movie:  Iron Man, Captain America, The Hulk, Thor, Scarlett Johansson as whoever she played in Iron Man 2, etc.

G.I. JOE - RETALIATION (Paramount) - 30 seconds 2d Quarter:  Um, where exactly was G.I. Joe in this?  We saw plenty of The Rock, and the spot made clear that Bruce Willis (playing Joe Sr) is in the house, but there wasn't a clear shot of Channing Tatum in the whole thing.  The result just looked like a generic boom-boom movie (maybe The Expendables 2?), although it did try to establish how cool it's going to be by citing Jay Z.  The movie doesn't open until late June, and should use the time to work on its message.

ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) - 30 seconds 4th Quarter:  The gimmick of this picture is that the cast is made up of actual Navy Seals who are on active duty (don't they have other things to do?), and Relativity accomplished what was no doubt its goal:  show things blowing up and make it look like this relatively low-budgeted flick is as filled with high-velocity action as the epics surrounding it.  Apart from that, the movie remains a mystery.

That was it:  nothing from the upcoming Sony (Men In Black 3, The Amazing Spider-Man), Fox (Prometheus, Abraham Lincoln:  Vampire Hunter) or Warners (The Dark Knight Rises) blockbusters, those studios having decided that their millions could be better spent when their movies are closer to launch. 

By the way, the best ad of the night in any genre?  The Doritos bit with the homicidal but very clever dog. 



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The Sked: PROMO WATCH

ShowBuzzDaily's PROMO WATCH will return tomorrow with updated numbers and rankings updated through Tuesday and Wednesday night's network programming.

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The Sked: PROMO WATCH -- through Monday October 24

Grimm is now up to 220 promo seconds over the last week.  The good news is that the network is standing behind the show and giving it all it has to give.  The bad news is that all that time is in little-watched programs (except of course for Sunday Night Football).  Coming soon in a new version of Promo Watch, we will include promo seconds as well as an estimate of exposures -- the equivalent of "GRP's" (Gross Ratings Points) as they are called in the trade.  Basically, we will count the time given to a program's promotion and adjust for the ratings of the show in which the promo was placed.  Also, Rock Center is also inching up -- now 80 promo seconds over the past week. 

ABC was able to give 30 seconds to five different programs last night in Dancing with the Stars from 9-10 pm.  (Reality shows are very promo-friendly, as the running times of unscripted are much more flexible than those for scripted shows.)  ABC assigned half a minute of time to: Once Upon a Time (heralding the hit status of the new show), Revenge (using the word "complicated" to describe the main character's life -- always a risky word in television promotion), Grey's Anatomy (Sandra Oh looking very shocked when told she is "finished!" as a doctor), Wednesday's Comedy Block (concentrating on the Halloween theme for the lineup), and Castle (not sure what the selling point was, quite frankly).
 
 
Last night CBS gave Unforgettable the most time in the 8-9 pm comedy hour -- 40 seconds, which is a substantial investment for The Eye in any given hour.  CBS clearly wants to hold the line at a 2.5 rating for the new drama (to avoid another 2.3) or even inch it up to a 2.6 this week. 

To make the chart easier to read at a glance, there is now a "Cliffs Notes" version below that just lists the top four priorities for each network, making it easier to compare each network to the other.  For greater detail, the chart at the bottom lists all shows each network has promoted in the last week in case you are interested in finding a particular series.
   

ON-AIR PROMOTION PRIORITIES

TOP FOUR SHOWS EACH NETWORK
Over the Last Seven Days 
(# of promo-seconds)
Dates sampled: October 18-20 & 23-24, 2011


ABC
  Once Upon a Time   135
  Man Up!            90
  Revenge            90
  Desperate Hswvs    80
CBS
  Person of Interest 135
  Unforgettable      115
  Rules Engagement   100
  Big Bang Theory    55
NBC
  Grimm              220
  Rock Center        80
  Prime Suspect      70
  Up All Night       55
FOX
  Allen Gregory      85
  American Idol      60 
  The Simpsons       55
  The X Factor       45


ALL SHOWS PROMOTED
(# of promo-seconds)
Dates sampled: October
18-20 & 23-24, 2011

ABC
  Once Upon a Time   135
  Man Up!            90
  Revenge            90
  Desperate Hswvs    80
  Pan Am             65 
  Grey's Anatomy     65
  Extreme Mak. Home  60
  Wed Comedy Block   60 
  Happy Endings      45
  Castle             45
  Dancing...Stars    30

  Private Practice   30
  Last Man Standing  30
  The Middle         20
  Suburgatory        15
  Modern Family      15
  20/20              15

  Body of Proof      15
CBS
  Person of Interest 135
  Unforgettable      115
  Rules Engagement   100
  Big Bang Theory    55 
  NCIS: LA           50
  2 Broke Girls      50
  A Gifted Man       45
  The Mentalist      45
  Survivor           45

  Hawaii Five-O      40
  Amazing Race       30
  Two Half Men       30  
  NCIS               30 
  Late Show          25
  CSI: Miami         25
  How I Met Mother   20
  CSI                15
  Criminal Minds     15

  Good Wife          10 
  NFL on CBS         10
  Blue Bloods        10
  Mike & Molly       10
  60 Minutes         10

  College FB Sat     10
  Early Show         10
  CBS News           05
NBC
  Grimm              220
  Rock Center        80
  Prime Suspect      70
  Up All Night       55
  Leno/Fallon        50 
  Thu Comedy Block   50
  L&O: SVU           45
  Chuck              45
  Biggest Loser      30
  Harry's Law        25 
  Whitney            20
  Sunday Night FB    20

  Notre Dame FB      10
  The Office         05
  Community          05
  Parks & Rec        05
FOX

  Allen Gregory      85
  American Idol      60 
  The Simpsons       55
  The X Factor       45
  Terra Nova         35
  House              20
  MLB Postseason     20 
  Glee               20
  Alcatraz           20
  Bones              15 
  Kitchen Nightmares 10
  NFL on FOX         10


Programs Sampled
Mon Oct 24 2011: Dancing with the Stars (9-10 pm), How I Met Your Mother & 2 Broke Girls, Prime Suspect, World Series Game 5 (10-11:15 pm)

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