Movie Box Review

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS: Improvement in Year-to-Date Picture Continues

12:50 PM | Labels: Actuals, fast five, Numbers, Slump, studio estimates, Weekend

The past week is up an amazing 57% from last year, and the year-to-date tally is now down 15% from last year (improving from down 17% last week). This is very positive news for the industry, and especially Universal with its successful launch of Fast Five.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between April 25 and May 1 grossed $191 million, up an incredible 57% from the same week in 2010. Year to date, all films are now down 3% from the comparable four-year average and now down 15% from 2010's box office numbers (both year-to-date comparison percentages improved from last week). The positive momentum continues.

All Films April 25-May 1
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs

             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #17 $121 $171 $191 +57% +12%

Year to Date $3437 $3035 $2930 -15% - 3%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now: Fast Five ($188 million, 93rd percentile of all wide release movies the past two years), Rio ($150 million, 90th percentile of all wide release movies), and Hop ($113 million, 83rd percentile). The other new releases this weekend look like: Prom ($12 million, 12th percentile) and Hoodwinked Too! ($6 million, 4th percentile), an absolute disaster for Weinstein.

The complete list of Total Domestic estimates can be found below.

Weekend Actuals vs Yesterday's Studio Projections

Universal actually underestimated the Sunday performance of Fast Five (a rare event for a studio) -- the actual weekend performance came in almost $3 million higher. This is a very good sign for the film, as word of mouth seems to be building even more than its own studio was estimating.

The official weekend rankings follow in the table below.

Weekend of Sunday Monday Showbuzz

April 29-May 1, 2011 Studio Weekend Domestic

(millions) Estimate Actual Total

  Fast Five           (Uni)    $83.6     $86.2     $188
Rio            (Fox)    $14.4     $14.8     $150
Madea's Big Happy Fam.(LG)     $10.1     $ 9.9     $ 61
Water for Elephants (Fox)     $ 9.1     $ 9.3     $ 57
  Prom                 (Dis)    $ 5.0     $ 4.7     $ 12
  Hoodwinked Too!    (Weins)    $ 4.1     $ 4.1     $ 6
Hop            (Uni)     $ 2.6     $ 2.7     $113
African Cats     (Dis)     $ 2.3     $ 2.4     $ 19

Note: The table above displays the weekend Studio Estimate (released Sunday), the Weekend Actual number (issued today), and the updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total estimate. For definitions of all terms visit Showbuzz Basics.

Limited Release Openings

In limited release, Cave of Forgotten Dreams opened at five theaters with a very good $25,400 per location, while 13 Assassins opened at three theaters with $15,285 per theater. The other limited release openers had quiet debuts. Sympathy for Delicious had an average opening ($4,724) at two theaters. Lebanon, PA opened at two theaters with a soft $3,338 average per theater, while Exporting Raymond opened at 13 theaters with a similar $2,769 per theater average.

The Calender: The Next Four Weeks

2011 2010

May 6 May 7

Thor Iron Man 2

Something Borrowed Babies

Jumping the Broom

May 13 May 14

Bridesmaids Robin Hood

Priest Letters to Juliet

Just Wright

May 20 May 21

Pirates of the Caribbean: Shrek Forever After

On Stranger Tides MacGruber

May 27 May 28

Kung Fu Panda 2 Sex and the City 2

The Hangover Part II Prince of Persia

The chart below shows how the May 2010 releases fared worldwide. At the high end, May films can deliver $800 million to $1 billion in worldwide gross. The second tier grosses around $300-400 million, and the bottom tier (almost half the releases) take in $100 million or less.

Check back tomorrow for updated international numbers for current movies in release, including a new graphic display of the domestic, international and home video revenues.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS: Astounding Year-to-Year Increases

1:57 PM | Labels: Actuals, Numbers, Slump, studio estimates, Weekend

The past week is up an astounding 55% from last year, and the year-to-date tally is now down 17% from last year (improving from down 20% last week). The audience is starting to return to movie theaters.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

Looking at all films in wide release playing between April 18 and April 24 grossed $178 million, up an incredible 55% from the 2007-10 average for the comparable week and up the same percentage from the same week in 2010. Year to date, all films are now down 4% from the comparable four-year average and now down 17% from 2010's box office numbers (both year-to-date comparison percentages improved three percentage points from last week). This is very positive momentum, about the best year-to-year comparisons possible.

All Films April 18-24
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs

             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #15 $115 $114 $178 +55% +55%

Year to Date $3315 $2864 $2739 -17% - 4%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now: Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family ($56 million, 62nd percentile of all wide release movies the past two years), Water for Elephants ($46 million, 55th percentile), and African Cats ($19 million, 22nd percentile).

Among the holdovers: Rio ($152 million, 90th percentile of all wide release movies), Hop ($125 million, 86th percentile), Source Code ($58 million, 62nd percentile), Insidious ($57 million, 62nd percentile), Scre4m ($47 million, 56th percentile), Hanna ($46 million, 56th percentile), Soul Surfer ($43 million, 53rd percentile), Arthur ($38 million, 48th percentile), Your Highness ($22 million, 27th percentile), and The Conspirator ($13 million, 14th percentile).

Weekend Actuals vs Yesterday's Studio Projections

Compared to the Sunday Studio Estimates (which combine actual numbers for Friday and Saturday with a studio-supplied estimate for Sunday numbers), the actual full weekend numbers were generally lower, as usual. The top three films, for the second week in a row, were collectively $1.9 million lower than the Studio Estimates (meaning the studios generously forecast what the films would do on Sunday). Every studio tends to round their top films up by similar amounts so the rankings do not change from Sunday to Monday.

The official weekend rankings follow in the table below.

Weekend of Sunday Monday Showbuzz

April 22-24, 2011 Studio Weekend Domestic

(millions) Estimate Actual Total

Rio            (Fox)    $26.8 $26.3    $152 ++
Madea's Big Happy Fam.(LG)     $25.8     $25.1     $ 56
Water for Elephants (Fox)     $17.5     $16.8     $ 46
Hop            (Uni)     $12.5 $12.2     $125 ++
Scre4m     (Weins)     $ 7.2 $ 7.0     $ 47 --
African Cats     (Dis)     $ 6.4     $ 6.0     $ 19
Soul Surfer        (Tri)    $ 5.6 $ 5.4     $ 43
Hanna          (Foc)     $ 5.3     $ 5.3     $ 46
Insidious    (FilmDis) $ 5.4   $ 5.2     $ 57
Source Code      (Sum)    $ 5.1     $ 5.1     $ 58
Arthur              (WB)     $ 4.1     $ 4.1     $ 38
Limitless    (Rel) $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $ 85

Top 12 Total $124.3 $121.2

Limited Release Openings

In limited release, Incendies opened at three theaters with a very good $16,893 per location. POM Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (from Morgan Spurlock) opened at 18 theaters with a good $6,572 average per theater. In its second week, Atlas Shrugged: Part I expanded to 465 theaters (166 more than last week), but it's per-theater average plummeted to $1,895. It's over for the Ayn Rand-source material project. Similarly, The Conspirator expanded to 849 theaters (up 142 from its opening last week) and the per-theater average declined to $2,580 -- not as bad as Atlas Shrugged but not a number about which to be very hopeful.

The Calender: The Next Four Weeks

2011 2010

April 29 April 30

Fast Five A Nightmare on Elm St.

Hoodwinked Too! Furry Vengeance

Prom

Dylan Dog: Dead of Night

May 6 May 7

Thor Iron Man 2

Something Borrowed Babies

Jumping the Broom

May 13 May 14

Bridesmaids Robin Hood

Priest Letters to Juliet

Just Wright

May 20 May 21

Pirates of the Caribbean: Shrek Forever After

On Stranger Tides MacGruber

Check back tomorrow for updated international numbers for current movies in release, including a new graphic display of the domestic, international and home video revenues.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 15-17: Stronger Saturday Improves Weekend

9:50 AM | Labels: atlas shrugged, Numbers, rio, Saturday, Scream 4.The Conspirator, Slump, Weekend

Despite the gloom of yesterday, this weekend is now looking like it will be up slightly versus 2010. Saturday business was higher than expected for films across the board, with the exception of Scre4m.

Based on Saturday's performance, Rio is now headed for about $40.0 million this weekend. The Saturday "bump" for Rio was even bigger than expected (from a just-okay $10 million Friday to a solid $17 million Saturday). As we said yesterday: There is a slight chance heavy tornadic activity in the South might have dampened movie attendance last night -- we could see a higher than normal uptick Saturday and Sunday, but the effect should not be major. Rio will now premiere somewhat higher than both Rango and Hop in North America (by a few million dollars). Playing at 3,826 theaters, Rio should average about $10,500 per theater. Although it still will not hit a very bullish ShowbuzzDaily Forecast, Rio is now looking more solid if it crosses the $40 million line.

Scre4m looks to be on the same track it was yesterday, headed for a shade above $19 million this weekend (an average $5,800 at 3,305 theaters). The fourth in a franchise that started way back in 1996 (a month after Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole for his second term) had a $34 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast. That larger number was not unthinkable given that Scream 3 opened to $35 million in 2000. Scream 3 went on to gross $89 million, which is equal to about $132 million in today's dollars. Scre4m in contrast is headed for about $53 million domestically, according to the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate Estimate. It looks like Wes Craven can move on to other things (hey, how about The Hills Have Eyes III?), and Weinstein will have to search for another franchise (a new, fresh one, perhaps?).

The Conspirator opened at 707 theaters and should average about $5,500 per location, only somewhat above the $4,900 average for all films. Not a great start for the historical drama about the plot to assassinate Abraham Lincoln and destabilize the Union, but the movie is certainly not DOA. A solid opening for a limited release like this would be at least $10,000 per theater. Limited release "hits" can average $25,000 or more per theater.

Opening to a similar average ($5,600) at far fewer theaters (299), Atlas Shrugged: Part 1 (from Rocky Mountain) is headed for a $1.7 million opening weekend.   These numbers are exactly in between "hit" and "miss". Its performance in the coming weeks will determine whether we see a Part 2.

April 15-17, 2011       Pre-Wknd    Wknd     vs    Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz   Studio   Last Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Wknd Ultimate*
Rio (Fox)                [$46.5]    $40.0             $143
Scre4m (Weins)           [$34  ]    $19.3             $ 53
Hop (Uni)                [$11 ]    $11.2   -47%      $109 --
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [$ 5.5]    $ 7.4   -30%      $ 38
Hanna (Foc)              [$ 6.5]    $ 7.3   -41%      $ 44
Arthur (WB)              [$ 6 ]    $ 6.9   -43%      $ 36
Insidious (FilmDis)      [$ 5.5]    $ 6.8   -27%      $ 53
Source Code (Sum)        [$ 5  ]    $ 6.3   -27%      $ 55
The Conspirator (Roadsde)[$ 2 ]    $ 3.9             $ 15
Your Highness (Uni)      [$ 4.5]    $ 3.9   -58%      $ 22
Limitless (Rel)          [ n/a ]    $ 3.8   -31%      $ 82

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The third column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.

Total Weekend Volume

The returning films, like Rio, had better than expected Saturdays (or worse than expected Fridays, depending on your point of view). Either way, the weekend numbers for the returning films are enough to lift the top 12 into positive territory versus last year. What looked like another down weekend yesterday, now looks ever so slightly positive.

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $118 million total. Much better than "an average" comparable weekend the last four years and a bit higher than last year's comparable number. Although if there is a considerable amount of studio rounding in these estimates, the 5% gain versus last year could turn to a flat year when we see the actual weekend numbers tomorrow. It's not yet time to celebrate the beginning of the end of the 2011 box office slump.

Top 12 Films: Third Weekend in April

   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $118 (+28% vs 2007-10 average; +5% vs 2010)

2007-10
Avg   $ 92
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $112  Kick-Ass $20, Death at a Funeral $16

2009 $100 17 Again $24, State of Play $14,Crank:High Voltage $7

2008 $ 83 Forbidden Kingdom $21, Forgetting Sarah Marshall $18
2007 $ 73 Fracture $11, Vacancy $8, The Condemned $4

The Week Ahead

Looking ahead to next weekend, the comparisons could be very positive next week. Tyler Perry's Medea's Family Reunion (LG) should open in the $30 million range, and Water for Elephants (Fox) should open around $25 million. Last year, the best opening between April 23-25 was The Back-Up Plan (CBS Films) with only $12.2 million. The Losers (WB) opened with $9.4 million, and Oceans (Dis) bowed with only $6.1 million.

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release.

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FRIDAY APR 15 NUMBERS: A Promising Weekends Turns Ho-Hum

9:29 AM | Labels: Early, Friday, Numbers, Slump, Weekend

This was supposed to be the weekend that the 2011 slump started to turn around. While $37.5 million and $19 million openings are usually nothing to sneeze at, the box office needed better performances to show increases from 2010.

Based on Friday's numbers, Rio is headed for about $37.5 million this weekend. On first blush, this looks like a pretty good number. But keep in mind this well-reviewed movie is playing in 3-D (with higher ticket prices), which helped push its ShowbuzzDaily Forecast to $46.5 million. But Rio is looking like it will premiere in the same range as both Rango and Hop in North America. There is a slight chance heavy tornadic activity in the South might have dampened movie attendance last night -- we could see a higher than normal uptick Saturday and Sunday, but the effect should not be major. Playing at 3,826 theaters, Rio should average about $9,800 per theater. A very good number but not a smash. The biggest hope for Rio is the international marketplace, which will be updated Tuesday.

Scre4m looks to be an even bigger disappointment. Opening to about $19 million this weekend (an average $5,700 at 3,305 theaters), the fourth in a franchise that started way back in 1996 (a month after Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole for his second term) had a $34 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast. That larger number was not unthinkable given that Scream 3 opened to $35 million in 2000.  Scream 3 went on to gross $89 million, which is equal to about $132 million in today's dollars. Scre4m in contrast is headed for about $52 million domestically, according to the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate Estimate. It looks like Wes Craven can move on to other things (hey, how about The Hills Have Eyes III?), and Weinstein will have to search for another franchise (a new, fresh one, perhaps?).

The Conspirator opened at 707 theaters and should average about $4,700 per location, just a hair under the average for all films. Not a great start for the historical drama about the plot to assassinate Abraham Lincoln and destabilize the Union.

April 15-17, 2011       Pre-Wknd    Wknd    (TBA)   Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj. Actual Ultimate*
Rio (Fox)                [$46.5]    $37.5   $10.2     $136
Scre4m (Weins)           [$34  ]    $19.0   $ 8.0     $ 52
Hop (Uni)                [$11 ]    $ 9.0   $ 2.3     $104 --
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [$ 5.5]    $ 7.0   $ 2.1     $ 37
Hanna (Foc)              [$ 6.5]    $ 6.9   $ 2.1     $ 42
Insidious (FilmDis)      [$ 5.5]    $ 6.9   $ 2.3     $ 53
Arthur (WB)              [$ 6 ]    $ 6.7   $ 2.1     $ 35
Source Code (Sum)        [$ 5  ]    $ 5.8   $ 1.8     $ 53
Your Highness (Uni)      [$ 4.5]    $ 4.0   $ 1.3     $ 22
The Conspirator (Roadsde)[$ 2 ]    $ 3.3   $ 1.1     $ 13

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total. Much better than "an average" comparable weekend the last four years, but a touch lower than last year's comparable number.  A weekend that was supposed to rally the box office out of the slump turns out to be just so-so. 2011 just drags on.

Top 12 Films: Third Weekend in April
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $110(+19% vs 2007-10 average; -2% vs 2010)

2007-10
Avg   $ 92
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $112  Kick-Ass $20, Death at a Funeral $16
2009  $100  17 Again $24, State of Play $14,Crank:High Voltage $7
2008  $ 83  Forbidden Kingdom $21, Forgetting Sarah Marshall $18
2007  $ 73  Fracture $11, Vacancy $8, The Condemned $4

Despite this weekend's relative disappointment, we'll stay upbeat. Looking ahead to next weekend, the comparisons could be very positive next week. Tyler Perry's Medea's Family Reunion (LG) should open in the $30 million range, and Water for Elephants (Fox) should open around $25 million. Last year, the best opening between April 23-25 was The Back-Up Plan (CBS Films) with only $12.2 million. The Losers (WB) opened with $9.4 million, and Oceans (Dis) bowed with only $6.1 million.

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 8-10: Lackluster Weekend, But Better Times Ahead?

9:25 AM | Labels: Numbers, Saturday, Slump, Weekend

The weekend studio projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers plus a studio-generated estimate for Sunday's business) are very similar to the early look at the weekend from yesterday. Hop will lead the way, with Arthur and Hanna battling out for second place (a race that could go down to the wire Monday morning with the official weekend numbers). The one change in ranking from yesterday is Insidious (down a scant 27% from last weekend) sneaking past Your Highness, a true disappointment of a film. Despite a rather lackluster weekend, there actually is some reason for optimism in the coming weeks. Details after the jump.

April 8-10, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd     vs    Showbuzz
                        Showbuzz   Studio   Last   Domestic
                        Forecast   Prjectn Wknd   Ultimate
Hop (Uni)                [$23.5]    $21.7   -42%     $117
Arthur (WB)              [$15  ]    $12.5    n/a     $ 33
Hanna (Foc)              [$ 8.5]    $12.3    n/a     $ 41
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [$10  ]    $11.1    n/a     $ 33
Insidious (FilmDis)      [$ 7 ]    $ 9.7   -27%     $ 53 ++
Your Highness (Uni)      [$13.5]    $ 9.5    n/a     $ 25
Source Code (Sum)        [$ 9  ]    $ 9.1   -39%     $ 56
Limitless (Rel)          [$ 6  ]    $ 5.7   -39%     $ 81
Diary Wimpy Kid 2 (Fox) [$ 5.5]    $ 4.9   -51%     $ 55
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)      [$ 4.5]    $ 4.6   -33%     $ 60
Rango (Par)              [ n/a ]    $ 2.3   -49%     $123
Sucker Punch (WB)      [ n/a ]    $ 2.1   -65%     $ 38

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.

Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like they will total $105 million -- down a slight 1% from the four-year average for this comparable weekend and down 11% from a solid weekend last year (when Date Night had the weekend to itself). Although this is yet another double-digit decline versus last year, there is some reason for optimism that the Hollywood's fortunes could be changing.

Top 12 Films: Second Weekend in April

     Volume
2011  $105 (-1% vs 2007-10 average; -11% vs 2010)

2007-10
Avg   $106
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $119 Date Night $25
2009  $126  Hannah Montana $32, Observe & Report $11, Dragonball
             Evolution $5
2008  $ 81  Prom Night $21, Street Kings $12, Smart People $4
2007  $ 99  Disturbia $22, Perfect Stranger $11, Pathfinder $5

The Weeks Ahead

Looking ahead to next weekend, two new movies open wide that are nicely counter programmed. The animated comedy Rio (Fox) opens alongside horror sequel Scream 4 (Weinstein). The two films could open to a combined $75-80 million. In contrast, last year that weekend was no great shakes in terms of openings: Kick-Ass ($20 million) and Death at a Funeral ($16 million). So we could see some major year to year increases next weekend.

The following weekend we could see some more positive momentum when Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family opens (probably to $30+ million) along with Water for Elephants (in the $20+ range). That weekend last year was a complete whiff: Back-Up Plan ($12 million), The Losers ($9 million), and Oceans ($6 million). Big plus signs seem to be in the making for the weekend of April 22-24.

And although the final weekend of April last year saw a very good opening (A Nightmare on Elm Street's $33 million), it was hampered by a horrific film's colossal failure (Furry Vengeance's $7 million). This year during the weekend of April 29, Universal should score big with Fast Five (in the $60-65 million range).

After a long drought that started in January, we might be seeing signs of a turnaround at the box office this year. We have a long way to go to erase the severe losses this winter, but April and hopefully May could perk up ticket sales nicely.

Reminder: on Tuesday we will update the international numbers for current films and take a look at the home video market.

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FRIDAY APR 8 NUMBERS: Other Than Hop, Ouch

9:28 AM | Labels: Early, Friday, Numbers, Slump, Weekend

Based on Friday's numbers, Hop will continue to be the #1 movie playing, while none of the openers this weekend will make much of an impact. Hop's expected decline of 44% is good but not as solid as forecast. The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate has consequently been downgraded slightly to $114 million. And then there are the new films this weekend. Arthur will struggle to make $13 million this weekend, a very lame number and even lower than a weak $15 million ShowbuzzDaily Forecast. The Russell-Brand-Is-Best-In-Small-Doses theory has been given weight. Playing in 3,276 theaters (the widest openers), the per location average is on track for a bad $3,900 this weekend.

Hanna's weekend projection is very close to Arthur's -- only half a million dollars. With solid reviews and probably great word of mouth, it is conceivable that we could see Hanna emerge as the #1 new film this weekend (when Saturday actuals come in tomorrow and the weekend projections are tweaked). Playing at a relatively modest 2,535 theaters, Hanna should average about $4,900 per location. To put that number in perspective, it is exactly at the norm ($4,901) for all movies the last four years. But Focus (Universal's quality label) should be relatively pleased. At Universal itself, however, unhappy faces all around when thinking about Your Highness, which will struggle to make $10 million this weekend. A $3,800 average at 2,769 theaters. Danny McBride has just received his membership card in the Best-In-Small-Doses Club, James Franco gave his critics more ammo after his turgid Oscar hosting gig, and Natalie Portman will go on to better things we hope. Both Arthur and Your Highness both suffered somewhat by going head to head, but the small paying audiences probabaly suffered more by seeing them.

April 8-10, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
                        Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj. Actual Ultimate*
Hop (Uni)                [$23.5]    $21.0   $ 5.5     $114
Arthur (WB)              [$15  ]    $12.7   $ 4.7     $ 33
Hanna (Foc)              [$ 8.5]    $12.2   $ 4.2     $ 41
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [$10  ]    $11.3   $ 3.9     $ 33
Your Highness (Uni)      [$13.5]    $10.5   $ 3.7     $ 28
Insidious (FilmDis)      [$ 7 ]    $10.0   $ 3.2     $ 54 ++
Source Code (Sum)        [$ 9  ]    $ 9.3   $ 2.7     $ 57
Limitless (Rel)          [$ 6  ]    $ 5.7   $ 1.6     $ 82
Diary Wimpy Kid 2 (Fox) [$ 5.5]    $ 5.1   $ 1.3     $ 56
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)      [$ 4.5]    $ 4.5   $ 1.2     $ 60

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.

The final new entry in the demolition derby that was this weekend is Soul Surfer. A tick better than forecast, the $11 million weekend number is pretty soft. Playing in the fewest theaters (2,214), it can claim the highest per theater average for this weekend's openers. But $5,100 is nothing to get excited about. It's best we all just put this weekend behind us and be encouraged that Hop (or any movie) managed to do over $20 million from Friday-Sunday.

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $109 million total. About the same as "an average" comparable weekend the last four years, but remember the average is composed of two very low weekends in 2007 and 2008 ($99 and $81 million, respectively) and two relatively strong weekends in 2009 and 2010 ($126 and $119 million, respectively). Versus this weekend last year, this weekend is down 9%. The way things have been going this winter and spring, a 9% decline is looking pretty damn good.

Top 12 Films: Second Weekend in April

     Volume
2011  $109 (+3% vs 2007-10 average; -9% vs 2010)

2007-10
Avg   $106
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $119 Date Night $25
2009  $126  Hannah Montana $32, Observe & Report $11, Dragonball
             Evolution $5
2008  $ 81  Prom Night $21, Street Kings $12, Smart People $4
2007  $ 99  Disturbia $22, Perfect Stranger $11, Pathfinder $5

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS: Improvement in Year-to-Date Picture Continues

FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS: Astounding Year-to-Year Increases

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 15-17: Stronger Saturday Improves Weekend

FRIDAY APR 15 NUMBERS: A Promising Weekends Turns Ho-Hum

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 8-10: Lackluster Weekend, But Better Times Ahead?

FRIDAY APR 8 NUMBERS: Other Than Hop, Ouch