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Showing posts with label Early. Show all posts

FRIDAY MARCH 9 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:24 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The tenth weekend of 2012 is looking to be solid in terms of total business but not at the runaway pace of the past few weeks.  The weekend is running 3% ahead of last year's same weekend and 8% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  The Lorax will remain the #1 film this weekend, down a typical 45% from its strong opening.  Needing an outstanding performance, John Carter is looking like a $27 million opening weekend, which would would be fine if the studio hadn't spent hundreds of millions of dollars making it, re-shooting it and marketing it worldwide.  Silent House and A Thousand Words with Eddie Murphy are opening very quietly, and will leave the scene quickly.      

John Carter from Disney opened with $9.6 million Friday for an estimated $27.4 million for Friday-Sunday, in line with the $26.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The science-fiction/ action film is averaging $7,300 on 3,746 screens, nowhere near the opening this expensive film would need to have even a remote shot at making its money back.  The film now has 50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and a "B+" CinemaScore grade from opening night audiences.  Mitch Salem is decidedly negative in his review.  Not the signs of terrific word of mouth.  John Carter is headed for a preliminary $67 million total domestic, which will certainly feed the Town's schadenfreude for the current Disney film regime. 

Silent House (from Open Road Films) opened with $2.6 million Friday for $6.6 million Friday-Sunday, falling far behind the modest $10.0 million ShowBuzzDaily prediction.  The horror film should average around only $3,100 at 2,124 theaters this weekend.  Silent House is headed for a preliminary $12 million domestic.  Currently 49% positive reviews for Silent House at RottenTomatoes, but the film received the dreaded "F" CinemaScore, according to Deadline.  Read Mitch Salem's review.

Finally, there's Eddie Murphy.  A Thousand Words (Paramount) opened with $1.9 million Friday and headed for $5.7 million this weekend, somewhat above our horrific $4.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Firmly in bomb territory, the film is averaging $3,030 at only 1,890 theaters.  The film is headed for maybe $9 million domestic when it leaves theaters.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
March 9-11, 2012        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

The Lorax (Uni)          [$41.0]    $39.2   $ 9.5     $220
John Carter (Dis)        [$26.0]    $27.4   $ 9.6     $ 67
Project X (WB)           [$10.5]    $11.8   $ 4.0     $ 68
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$ 7.5]    $ 7.2   $ 2.0     $ 74
Silent House (Open Road) [$10.0]    $ 6.6   $ 2.6     $ 12
A Thousand Words (Par)   [$ 4.5]    $ 5.7   $ 1.9     $  9
Safe House (Uni)         [$ 4.7]    $ 5.1   $ 1.3     $131 
The Vow (Sony)           [$ 3.6]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $130
Journey 2 (WB)           [$ 3.9]    $ 4.1   $ 0.8     $103
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 3.5]    $ 4.0   $ 1.2     $ 54
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$ 3.5]    $ 3.2   $ 0.8     $ 36
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ ---]    $ 2.2   $ 0.5     $ 51
The Artist (Wein)        [$ ---]    $ 2.1   $ 0.6     $ 49



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $121 million total Friday-Sunday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #10


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $121  John Carter $27, Silent House $6.6, 1000 Words $5.5
2011  $118  Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010  $136  Green Zone $14, She's Out My League $10
2009  $ 88  Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14
2008  $106  Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
2008-11
Avg   $112


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FRIDAY MARCH 2 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:44 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The ninth weekend of 2012 is another good one, running 13% ahead of last year's same weekend and 9% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  This is the fourth weekend in a row that 2012 volume beats both the easy target of last year's depressed levels as well as the more difficult to beat multi-year averages.  (The first five weekends of 2012 were generally ahead of 2011 but not other recent years.)  The Lorax mowed down the competition, powered by 70 marketing partnerships.  It's the best opening since November's Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 and fills somewhere in between two big openings from this same weekend the last two years (bigger than Rango last year, not in the same league as mega-hit Alice in Wonderland in 2010).  Project X opened at forecast in an unspectacular but fairly solid fashion.    

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal opened with $17.4 million Friday for an estimated $60.4 million for Friday-Sunday, way above the $44.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The 3D animated film is averaging $16,200 on 3,729 screens.  The Lorax is headed for a preliminary $198 million total domestic.  Reviews have been mediocre, 57% positive to date at RottenTomatoes. Mitch Salem is decidedly negative in his review.


Project X (from Warner Brothers) opened with $8.1 million Friday for $19.8 million Friday-Sunday, slightly exceeding the more moderate $18.5 million prediction.  The "found footage" comedy from producer Todd Phillips (director of The Hangover) should average around $6,500 at 3,055 theaters this weekend.  Project X is headed for a preliminary $65 million domestic.  Only 27% positive reviews for Project X at RottenTomatoes, and Mitch Salem is definitely among the fans in his review.


Act of Valor looks like it will be down 48% in its second weekend, right in line with expectations.  Best Picture The Artist is headed for $3.6 million weekend on its victory tour, with $2,035 per theater (in line with our forecast) at 1,756 theaters (slightly lower than our initial estimate).  In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
March 2-4, 2012         Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
The Lorax (Uni)          [$44.0]    $60.4   $17.4     $198
Project X (WB)           [$18.5]    $19.8   $ 8.1     $ 65
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$13.0]    $12.7   $ 3.7     $ 73
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$ 7.5]    $ 6.3   $ 1.8     $ 36
Journey 2 (WB)           [$ 7.2]    $ 5.7   $ 1.3     $100-
Safe House (Uni)         [$ 6.5]    $ 6.8   $ 1.9     $128
The Vow (Sony)           [$ 5.2]    $ 5.6   $ 1.8     $129
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 4.8]    $ 5.2   $ 1.7     $ 50
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ 4.6]    $ 4.3   $ 1.1     $ 50
The Artist (Wein)        [$ 4.2]    $ 3.6   $ 0.9     $ 49+



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $137 million total Friday-Sunday, up 13% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 9% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #9


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $137  The Lorax $60, Project X $20
2011  $121  Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010  $186  Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn's Finest $13
2009  $102  Watchmen $55
2008  $ 91  10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg   $125


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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The Sked: THURSDAY RATINGS March 1 -- Early Overnights

6:14 AM | Labels: , , , ,

The metered-market overnights, the first ratings available each day, show that NBC's Awake finished in second place in the 10 pm hour to the repeat episode of The Mentalist on CBS.  Remember that the overnights reflect viewing in 56 of the largest television markets only (about half of the country), and the ratings and shares available are only for the broader measure of households.  Demographic ratings, most notably Adult 18-49 viewing, will come later this morning with the fast national ratings that we usually report.

At 10 pm last night, Awake averaged a 4.6 household rating and 8 share.  The Mentalist averaged a 6.0 household rating and 10 share, and the repeat of post-Oscar edition of Jimmy Kimmel Live averaged a 2.5 household rating and 4 share.

There was a little tune-out over the course of the premiere of Awake, a 4.7 household rating in the 10:00 pm half hour and 4.5 at 10:30, but nothing to get too concerned about.           

The million dollar question is how many young viewers were in those households?  This is also known as the 18-49 "comp" (or audience composition).  A show like The Mentalist is very old-skewing (similar to the CSI shows or Harry's Law), and that 6.0 household rating will probably translate to an 18-49 rating around 1.8 or so.

Awake will probably be a middle-range drama in terms of young adult skew (similar to Law & Order SVU), meaning the 4.6 household rating will turn into a 2.4 rating or so, enough to pass The Mentalist for top honors among the broadcast networks in the hour and close to our ShowBuzzDaily forecast.

Keep coming back for more details.

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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 24 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:58 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The eighth weekend of 2012 is another solid one, running 18% ahead of last year's same weekend and 22% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend.  This is the third weekend in a row that 2012 volume beats both the easy target of last year's depressed levels as well as the more difficult to beat multi-year averages.  (The first five weekends of 2012 were generally ahead of 2011 but not other recent years.)  Act of Valor powered its way to #1 with a big advertising budget, including Super Bowl buys, and additional free media because of its use of real Navy SEAL team members in the film.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds is a fairly weak second place, just ahead of the third week films (Journey 2, Safe House, The Vow), which are hanging around reasonably well.  The other openers this weekend, Wanderlust and Gone, are DOA.    

Act of Valor from Relativity opened with $9.0 million Friday for an estimated $25.7 million for Friday-Sunday, way above the $18.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The war movie featuring real Navy SEALs is averaging $8,500 on 3,039 screens.  Act of Valor is headed for a preliminary $70 million total domestic. 


Tyler Perry's Good Deeds (from Lionsgate) opened with $5.4 million Friday for $14.6 million Friday-Sunday, missing the $17.0 million prediction.  The latest from Tyler Perry should average around $6,800 at 2,132 theaters this weekend.  Good Deeds is headed for a preliminary $38 million domestic. No, it's not going to be the $90 million when Perry dressed up for Madea Goes to Jail or the $63 million when he did the same thing for Madea's Family Reunion.  But give the man some credit for trying some other things and not sticking to a formula.

Wanderlust (from Universal) opened with $2.2 million Friday -- on track for $6.2 million this weekend, badly missing a very modest $9.0 million forecast.  The Paul Rudd-Jennifer Aniston comedy should average $3,100 this weekend at 2,002 theaters.  Wanderlust is on track for $19 million total domestic.

Gone from Summit Entertainment opened with only $1.7 Friday, on its way to $4.5 million this weekend, also missing a very soft $6.0 million forecast.  The Amanda Seyfried film should average a pitiful $2,000 this weekend at 2,186 theaters.  Gone is on pace for $8 million total domestic.  

The third weekend films are the pick of the holdovers, with Journey 2: The Mysterious Island holding the best, down a very good 32% from its second weekend.  Safe House should be down 54% and The Vow down 57%.  Through Sunday, Safe House should trail The Vow by about $5 million ($97.7 million versus $102.9 million to date), but we expect both films to ultimately finish with about $133 million.  This Means War is on track to drop 50% in its second weekend, compared to a huge 65% decline for Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance.    
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 24-26, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Act of Valor (Rel)       [$18.0]    $25.7   $ 9.0     $ 70
TP's Good Deeds (LG)     [$17.0]    $14.6   $ 5.4     $ 38
Journey 2 (WB)           [$12.8]    $13.5   $ 3.2     $118+ 
Safe House (Uni)         [$13.0]    $11.0   $ 3.1     $133 
The Vow (Sony)           [$12.0]    $ 9.8   $ 3.3     $133-
This Means War (Fox)     [$ 9.5]    $ 8.8   $ 2.7     $ 53+ 
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$ 8.5]    $ 7.8   $ 2.3     $ 50- 
Wanderlust (Uni)         [$ 9.0]    $ 6.2   $ 2.2     $ 19 
Gone (Sum)               [$ 6.0]    $ 4.5   $ 1.7     $  8
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.5]    $ 4.5   $ 1.1     $ 30+

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total Friday-Sunday, up 18% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #8


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $113  Act of Valor $25.7, Good Deeds $14.6, Wanderlust $6
2011  $ 96  Hall Pass $13.5, Drive Angry 3D $5
2010  $107  Cop Out $18, The Crazies $16
2009  $ 87  Jonas Brothers 3D Concert $12.5, Street Fighter $5
2008  $ 80  Semi-Pro $15, Other Boleyn Girl $8
2008-11
Avg   $ 92


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:40 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

The seventh weekend of 2012 is another good one, running ahead of last year and the multi-year average for this weekend.  The Vow should hold on to the top spot, with Safe House a close #2, and Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opening in third place for the weekend.  This Means War is basically shut out and continues the tough losing streak for Reese Witherspoon.    

Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opened with $7.0 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the traditional three-day weekend, way below the $27.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The Nicolas Cage sequel is wheezing toward $6,400 average on 3,174 screens.  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance is headed for a preliminary $54 million total domestic. 


This Means War opened with $5.6 million Friday for $16.6 million Friday-Sunday, hitting the lackluster $16.5 million prediction.  The latest from Reese Witherspoon weekend average should be around $5,200 at 3,189 theaters.  This Means War is headed for a preliminary $44 million domestic. 

The Secret World of Arrietty opened with $1.7 million Friday on track for $6.6 million this weekend, above the very modest $4.2 million forecast.  Arrietty is on track for $25 million total domestic.

The Vow's second Friday edged Ghost Rider 2's opening night (finishing #1 with $7.4 million).  A second weekend is more evenly distributed across all the days than an opening weekend (which is more skewed toward Friday) -- so The Vow will cruise to #1 this weekend (-40% from the opening weekend), while Safe House should finish second (-41%), pushing Nic Cage to #3.  We have upgraded the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate for The Vow to $150 million, Safe House to $138 million and Journey 2 The Mysterious Island up to $100 million.  Not surprisingly, Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace 3D will be down about 67% in its second weekend.  The final estimate for this extravaganza of wooden acting, clunky dialogue and digital characters with jaw-dropping ethnic stereotypes is now $45 million domestic. 

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 17-19, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
The Vow (Sony)           [$22.5]    $24.9   $ 7.4     $150++
Safe House (Uni)         [$21.0]    $23.6   $ 6.5     $138+
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$27.0]    $20.4   $ 7.0     $ 54
Journey 2 (WB)           [$20.0]    $18.8   $ 4.4     $100+ 
This Means War (Fox)     [$16.5]    $16.6   $ 5.6     $ 44
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox)  [$10.0]    $ 7.4   $ 1.9     $ 45-
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.2]    $ 6.6   $ 1.7     $ 25
Chronicle (Fox)          [$ 6.8]    $ 7.4   $ 2.0     $ 71
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$ 5.2]    $ 6.4   $ 1.9     $ 60
The Grey (Open Road)     [$ 3.1]    $ 3.7   $ 0.9     $ 57
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ ---]    $ 2.8   $ 0.7     $ 85 
Big Miracle (Uni)        [$ 2.6]    $ 2.4   $ 0.5     $ 22


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $141 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #7


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $141  Ghost Rider 2 $20, This Means War $17, Arrietty $6.6
2011  $130  Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas 2 $16
2010  $122  Shutter Island $41
2009  $120  Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5.5
2008  $ 90  Vantage Point $23, Be Kind Rewind $4
2008-11
Avg   $115


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 3 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:10 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The fifth weekend of 2012 is much better than the same weekend last year, but it's still somewhat below an "average" weekend for this time of year, looking at the past four years.  Chronicle and The Woman in Black are battling for #1, with each trying to make it to a $20 million opening weekend (not easy to do with the Super Bowl on Sunday).     

Chronicle is coming in above forecast, pulling in $8.65 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $15.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Conventional wisdom is that the more male-skewing Chronicle will be passed by Woman in Black on Super Bowl Sunday, but we are projecting that both films will be hammered by the most-watched television event of the year and Chronicle will narrowly win the weekend with a superior Saturday.  Chronicle is headed for a preliminary $61 million total domestic. 


The Woman in Black is also beating our prediction: earning $8.3 million Friday for an estimated $19.7 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $15 million prediction.  The horror thriller starring Harry Potter's Daniel Radcliffe is headed for a preliminary $55 million domestic. 

Big Miracle is hitting its very modest expectation: a small $2.3 million Friday for $7.9 million this weekend, equal to the $8 million forecast.  Big Miracle is on track for only $29 million total domestic.

The Grey is the best holdover film, on track to drop 53% to $9.3 million in its second weekend (shy of our $10+ million forecast). 

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 3-5, 2012      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Chronicle (Fox)          [$15.5]    $20.4   $ 8.7     $ 61
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$15.0]    $19.7   $ 8.3     $ 55
The Grey (Open Road)     [$10.5]    $ 9.3   $ 3.1     $ 59
Big Miracle (Uni)        [$ 8.0]    $ 7.9   $ 2.3     $ 29
One for the Money (LG)   [$ 6.0]    $ 5.4   $ 1.7     $ 27  
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ 5.8]    $ 5.1   $ 1.7     $ 66
Red Tails (Fox)          [$ 5.4]    $ 4.8   $ 1.5     $ 52
The Descendants (Fox)    [$----]    $ 4.7   $ 1.4     $ 78 
Man on a Ledge (Sum)     [$ 4.0]    $ 4.4   $ 1.5     $ 23
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$ 4.3]    $ 4.0   $ 1.2     $ 37 



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $92 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 6% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  The box office is certainly not as sick as it was last year, but remember these numbers are not anything to get excited about.  Just look again at the table above and glance at the right column (the estimated final domestic grosses for each film).  A lot of middling performers, with nothing close to $100 million movies (the highest being $78 million among recent wide releases).          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #5


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $ 92  Chronicle $20, Woman in Black $20, Big Miracle $8
2011  $ 73  The Roommate $15, Sanctum $9
2010  $100  Dear John $30, From Paris with Love $8
2009  $131  He's Just Not That Into You $28, Coraline $17
2008  $ 90  Fool's Gold $22, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins $16

2008-11
Avg   $ 99


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FRIDAY JANUARY 27 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:58 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The fourth weekend of 2012 is a touch better than the same weekend last year, but it's a somewhat below average weekend looking at the past four years.  The Grey is opening at #1 at almost $19 million, somewhat higher than expected.   

The Grey is coming in above forecast, pulling in $6.4 million Friday and an estimated $18.7 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $15 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The Grey is headed for a preliminary $60 million total domestic. 


One for the Money is beating our prediction: opening with $4.1 million Friday on its way to almost $12 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $9.5 million prediction.  The action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen is headed for a preliminary $27 million domestic.  Early reviews are in (25 so far at RottenTomatoes), and this Katherine Heigl classic is earning an ignominious 0% positive reviews.

Man on a Ledge is failing to meet even modest expectations: a little over $2.5 million Friday and $7.2 million this weekend, below the $10 million forecast.  Man on a Ledge is on track for only $17 million total domestic.  

The Artist is looking to gross $3.2 million this weekend, averaging a low $3,220 at 897 theaters, below the $3.7 million forecast.  The Oscar hopeful is headed for $38 million domestic.   

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
January 27-29, 2012     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

The Grey (Open Road)     [$15.0]    $18.7   $ 6.4     $ 60
One for the Money (LG)   [$ 9.5]    $11.9   $ 4.1     $ 27
Underworld Awakening (So)[$11.5]    $11.6   $ 3.4     $ 67
Red Tails (Fox)          [$11.5]    $ 9.6   $ 2.8     $ 54
Man on a Ledge (Sum)     [$10.0]    $ 7.2   $ 2.5     $ 17
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$ 8.0]    $ 6.9   $ 2.0     $ 38
Contraband (Uni)         [$ 7.0]    $ 6.4   $ 1.9     $ 71
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ ---]    $ 6.3   $ 1.7     $ 70
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis)  [$ 5.0]    $ 5.1   $ 1.2     $ 54
Haywire (Rel)            [$ 4.5]    $ 4.0   $ 1.2     $ 27
The Artist (Weins)       [$ 3.7]    $ 3.2   $ 0.9     $ 38
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ ---]    $ 3.2   $ 0.9     $214
Joyful Noise (WB)        [$ ---]    $ 3.1   $ 0.9     $ 32
Iron Lady (Wein)         [$ ---]    $ 3.1   $ 0.9     $ 26


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $94 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #4


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $ 94  The Grey $19, One for the Money $12, Man Ledge $7
2011  $ 92  The Rite $15, Sanctum $9  
2010  $110  Edge of Darkness $17, When in Rome $12
2009  $103  Taken $25, The Uninvented $10, New in Town $7
2008  $102  Hannah Montana $31, The Eye $12

2008-11
Avg   $102


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FRIDAY JANUARY 20 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

7:25 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The third weekend of 2012 is better than the same weekend last year, but it's a fairly mediocre weekend looking at a broader historical context.  Underworld Awakening is leading the charge at #1, but Red Tails is not too far behind.   

Underworld Awakening is coming in just under forecast, pulling in $9.4 million Friday and an estimated $23.9 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $25.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The fourth Underworld is headed for a preliminary $59 million total domestic, which would put it just behind Underworld Evolution ($62.3 million in 2006) but ahead of Underworld ($51.9 million in 2003) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans ($45.8 million in 2009). 


Red Tails is beating our prediction: opening with $6 million Friday on its way to almost $18 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14.5 million prediction.  The action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen is headed for a preliminary $50 million domestic.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is failing to meet even modest expectations: a little over $3 million Friday and $9.4 million this weekend, below the $12.5 million forecast.  The film with Oscar hopes and dreams (cast, director, subject matter right out of the awards playbook) has not wowed critics (an evenly split 50% positive review score at RottenTomatoes) and our forecast of $30 million total domestic does not indicate much mainstream potential.  

Haywire is under our fairly weak forecast, $8.7 million opening weekend versus $8.0 million forecast.  Finishing at #15 this weekend (outside our chart), The Artist is looking to gross $2.3 million this weekend, averaging a low $3,475 at 662 theaters (expanding from 216 last week).  The total gross should stand at $12 million through Sunday.   

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
January 20-22, 2012     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

Underworld Awakening (So)[$25.5]    $23.9   $ 9.4     $ 59
Red Tails (Fox)          [$14.5]    $17.8   $ 6.0     $ 50
Contraband (Uni)         [$12.0]    $11.9   $ 3.7     $ 74
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$12.5]    $ 9.4   $ 3.2     $ 30
Haywire (Rel)            [$ 8.0]    $ 8.7   $ 2.9     $ 33
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis)  [$10.5]    $ 7.5   $ 2.1     $ 53--
Joyful Noise (WB)        [$ 6.5]    $ 5.9   $ 1.7     $ 34
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ 7.0]    $ 4.9   $ 1.5     $214--
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB)   [$ 5.0]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $187
Iron Lady (Wein)         [$ 4.5]    $ 3.9   $ 1.0     $ 23
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ ---]    $ 3.2   $ 1.0     $109
War Horse (DW/Dis)       [$ ---]    $ 2.9   $ 0.9     $ 86


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #3


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $104  Underworld Awakening $24, Red Tails $18, Ext Loud $9
2011  $ 89  No Strings Attached $20  
2010  $128  Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009  $130  Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008  $118  Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11

2008-11
Avg   $116


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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FRIDAY JANUARY 13 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

8:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

The second weekend of 2012 looks better than we forecast (Contraband and Beauty and the Beast 3D are ahead of the ShowBuzzDaily weekend predictions), but the weekend is still looking pretty soft.  The top 12 films should total about $113 million, down 2% from the same weekend last year (which was pretty bad).  More important, this weekend is down 21% from the average comparable weekend over the past several years.   

Contraband is opening better than forecast, pulling in almost $9 million Friday and an estimated $24 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $16.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Contraband is headed for a preliminary $70 million total domestic.  


Beauty and the Beast 3D is also exceeding our prediction: opening with almost $6 million Friday on its way to almost $19 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14 million prediction.  The 3D re-issue is headed for $87 million total domestic.

Joyful Noise is more in line with our expectations: over $3 million Friday and almost $11 million this weekend, just under the $12 million forecast. 

 The Devil Inside looks to be down 77% Friday-Sunday compared to the opening weekend, and we have taken down the exorcism film down to $55 million total estimated domestic.

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
January 13-15, 2012     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Contraband (Uni)         [$16.5]    $24.1   $ 8.7     $ 70
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis)  [$14.0]    $18.8   $ 5.6     $ 87
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$11.5]    $11.4   $ 3.3     $223
Joyful Noise (WB)        [$12.0]    $10.7   $ 3.3     $ 31
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB)   [$11.5]    $ 8.3   $ 2.4     $190
The Devil Inside (Par)   [$ 9.0]    $ 7.7   $ 2.7     $ 55
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ 7.5]    $ 6.2   $ 1.9     $109
War Horse (DW/Dis)       [$ 5.0]    $ 6.0   $ 1.6     $ 87
We Bought a Zoo (Fox)    [$ 5.0]    $ 5.6   $ 1.4     $ 81
Iron Lady (Wein)         [$ 3.5]    $ 5.4   $ 1.6     $ 20
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$ 6.0]    $ 5.2   $ 1.2     $126
Adventures Tintin (Par)  [$ 4.5]    $ 3.5   $ 0.8     $ 80


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a more significant 21% from the typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #2


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $113  Contraband $24, Beauty Beast 3D $19, Joyful Noise $11
2011  $115  Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $18  
2010  $157  Book of Eli $33, Lovely Bones $17, Spy Next Door $10
2009  $165  Paul Blart $32, My Bloody Valentine $21 Notorious $20
2008  $132  Cloverfield $40, 27 Dresses $23, Mad Money $8

2008-11
Avg   $142


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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