RSS
Showing posts with label studio estimates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label studio estimates. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 9-11

9:26 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a decent $123 million for the weekend, up 4% from last year's weekend and up 10% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Disney is claiming John Carter will finish the weekend with $30.6 million.  Let's all play pretend and give Disney the pleasure of 24 hours of thinking they crossed the $30 million threshold for the opening weekend.  This seems like a classic case of "rounding up" on Sunday morning to make an opening number seem a little better, but it doesn't change the fact that John Carter is going to be a catastrophe financially: maybe $75 million domestic and $125 million overseas for $200 million worldwide.  Less the theater owners' portion and adding in ancillary revenues like home video, video on demand, TV rights and so on, the studio might keep around $200 million versus a massive $400+ million expenditure on production and marketing. 


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: John Carter ($75 million), Silent House ($13 million) and A Thousand Words ($11 million). 

The second week movies:  Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($220 million, adjusted down slightly) and Project X ($67 million, steady).

The third week movies:  Act of Valor ($73 million, adjusted back down slightly), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($35 million, adjusted down slightly), Wanderlust ($20 million, down slightly) and Gone ($12 million, steady).    



March 9-11                          Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Lorax                 (Uni)     $39.1   -44%      $220-
John Carter               (Dis)     $30.6             $ 75
Project X                  (WB)     $11.6   -45%      $ 67
Silent House        (Open Road)     $ 7.0             $ 13
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $ 7.0   -48%      $ 73-
A Thousand Words          (Par)     $ 6.4             $ 11
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 4.9   -33%      $130
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 4.0   -33%      $129
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 3.7   -33%      $ 53
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 3.7   -44%      $102 
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 3.0   -57%      $ 35-
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 2.3   -36%      $ 50



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $123 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #10


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $123  John Carter $31, Silent House $7, 1000 Words $6
2011  $118  Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $7
2010  $136  Green Zone $14, She's Out My League $10
2009  $ 88  Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $14
2008  $106  Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $9
2008-11
Avg   $112





Next Weekend            
 
Opening wide next weekend are 21 Jump Street from Sony starring Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum.  This film will be compared to Limitless ($18.9 million opening weekend), The Lincoln Lawyer ($13.2 million) and Paul ($13.0 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

###

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES March 2-4

8:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an excellent $153 million for the weekend, up 27% from last year's weekend and up 23% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  The Lorax exceeded expectations Friday and absolutely blew them away Saturday, while Project X opened very decently.




The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Dr. Seuss' The Lorax ($227 million) and Project X ($67 million).

The second week movies:  Act of Valor ($77 million, adjusted upward), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($39 million, steady), Wanderlust ($22 million, steady) and Gone ($12 million, adjusted up slightly).    


The third week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($51 million, adjusted down again slightly), This Means War ($51 million, steady) and Secret World of Arrietty ($23 million, adjusted down). 


The fourth week movies:  The Vow ($130 million, adjusted down a touch), Safe House ($129 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($103 million, adjusted back down) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($42 million, down slightly).    



March 2-4                           Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Lorax                 (Uni)     $70.7             $227
Project X                  (WB)     $20.8             $ 67
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $13.7   -44%      $ 77+
Safe House                (Uni)     $ 7.2   -34%      $129
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $ 7.0   -55%      $ 39
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $ 6.9   -48%      $103
The Vow                  (Sony)     $ 6.1   -38%      $130
This Means War            (Fox)     $ 5.6   -33%      $ 51
Ghost Rider 2            (Sony)     $ 4.7   -48%      $ 51
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 3.9   +34%      $ 50


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $153 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #9


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $153  The Lorax $71, Project X $21
2011  $121  Rango $38, Adjustment Bureau $21, Beastly $10
2010  $186  Alice in Wonderland $116, Brooklyn's Finest $13
2009  $102  Watchmen $55
2008  $ 91  10,000 B.C. $36, College Road Trip $14
2008-11
Avg   $125




Next Weekend            
 
Opening next weekend are John Carter from Disney, Silent House from Open Road Films and A Thousand Words from Paramount.  These films will be compared to Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million opening weekend), Red Riding Hood ($14.0 million) and Mars Needs Moms ($6.9 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

###

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 24-26 (Updated with Daily Totals)

8:51 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $116 million for the weekend, up 21% from last year's weekend and up 25% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Act of Valor will still win the weekend, but the weekend total has been adjusted down about $1 million to $24.7 million.  Tyler Perry's Good Deeds has been adjusted up about $1 million to a second-place $16.0 million.  The rest of the field is looking like it did yesterday at this time.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)



Act of Valor was #1 both Friday and Saturday and will be #1 Sunday.  The film was front-loaded, however, with 37% of its expected weekend total coming on Friday and a similar 38% on Saturday.  The other three films opening this weekend had more typical daily distributions, about one-third of the weekend total on Friday and over 40% on Saturday (the so-called "Saturday bump" we see with most films).  Additionally, the returning films exhibit the pattern we see with holdovers: a heavier reliance on Saturday (closer to 50% of the weekend total), while a family film like Journey 2 relies more on daytime-skewed Sunday than night-time focused Friday (with the opposite the case for a date movie like The Vow).

           Domestic Box Office Estimates by Day
         (Millions $ per day & Percent of Weekend)
                 
                   Fri 2.24   Sat 2.25   Sun 2.26   Weekend
 Opening Films
 Act of Valor      $9.05 37%  $9.48 38%  $6.17 25%  $24.70
 TP’s Good Deeds   $5.35 33%  $6.65 42%  $4.00 25%  $16.00
 Wanderlust        $2.20 33%  $2.90 44%  $1.50 23%  $ 6.60
 Gone              $1.70 34%  $2.10 42%  $1.20 24%  $ 5.00  
 Holdovers
 Journey 2         $3.21 24%  $6.42 48%  $3.85 29%  $13.48
 Safe House        $3.20 28%  $5.10 45%  $3.10 27%  $11.40
 The Vow           $3.25 33%  $4.50 45%  $2.25 22%  $10.00
 Ghost Rider 2     $2.35 27%  $4.13 47%  $2.33 26%  $ 8.80

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Act of Valor ($68 million), Tyler Perry's Good Deeds ($42 million), Wanderlust ($20 million) and Gone ($9 million).    


The second week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($54 million, adjusted down slightly), This Means War ($51 million, up slightly) and Secret World of Arrietty ($30 million, up slightly). 


The third week movies:  The Vow ($133 million, adjusted down), Safe House ($134 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($118 million, adjusted up again) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($47 million, steady).    



February 24-26                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Act of Valor              (Rel)     $24.7             $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds   (LG)     $16.0             $ 42
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $13.5   -32%      $118+
Safe House                (Uni)     $11.4   -52%      $134-
The Vow                  (Sony)     $10.0   -57%      $133-

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 17-19

9:08 AM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $145 million for the weekend, up 11% from last year's unusually decent weekend and up 25% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Safe House and The Vow are battling for the #1 spot, with studio estimates for each film a shade under $24 million.  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance is just behind at $22 million for the three-day opening weekend, while Journey 2 Mysterious Island has the best second-weekend decline (-27%), now at about $20 million.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)

The Vow started the weekend at #1 with $7.4 million Friday (about $900,000 ahead of Safe House) then fell to second place with $9.2 million (about $700,000 behind Safe House).  Sunday is expected to go to Safe House ($7.6 million to about $7.0 million for The Vow).  That would give Safe House a $400,000 edge over the The Vow, meaning we'll have to wait until Tuesday for the final official numbers after the holiday to see who has the actual bragging rights.  But either way, very good second weekend numbers for both films.  Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance opened at #2 Friday with $6.95 million but faded to #3 Saturday with $8.7 million (falling below Safe House).  Sunday is expected to be a fourth place finish for Ghost Rider 2 with $6.35 million (behind kid friendly Journey 2, as well).

             Domestic Box Office Estimates by Day
                 
                    Fri 2.17 Sat 2.18 Sun 2.19 Weekend
   Safe House        $6.500   $9.900   $7.600  $24.000
   The Vow           $7.410   $9.235   $6.955  $23.600
   Ghost Rider 2     $6.950   $8.700   $6.350  $22.000
   Journey 2         $4.460   $8.500   $7.125  $20.085
   This Means War    $5.600   $6.900   $5.050  $17.550      

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($58 million), This Means War ($49 million) and Secret World of Arrietty ($25 million). 


The second week movies:  The Vow ($145 million, adjusted up sharply), Safe House ($140 million, adjusted up sharply), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($105 million, adjusted up sharply) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($47 million, adjusted down).    


The third week movies:  Chronicle ($71 million, steady), The Woman in Black ($60 million, adjusted up slightly) and Big Miracle ($21 million, adjusted down again). 


February 17-19                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Safe House                (Uni)     $24.0   -40%      $140+
The Vow                  (Sony)     $23.6   -43%      $145+
Ghost Rider Spirit Vengeance (Sony) $22.0             $ 58 
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $20.1   -27%      $105+
This Means War            (Fox)     $17.6             $ 49
Phantom Menace 3D         (Fox)     $ 7.9   -65%      $ 47-
Chronicle                 (Fox)     $ 7.5   -38%      $ 71+
The Woman in Black        (CBS)     $ 6.6   -34%      $ 60
Secret World of Arrietty  (Dis)     $ 6.4             $ 25
The Grey            (Open Road)     $ 3.0   -40%      $ 55 
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 2.9   -15%      $ 88
Big Miracle               (Uni)     $ 2.1   -46%      $ 21-



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  




Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $145 million total Friday-Sunday, up 11% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 25% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #7


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $145  Ghost Rider 2 $22, This Means War $18, Arrietty $6
2011  $130  Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas 2 $16
2010  $122  Shutter Island $41
2009  $120  Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5.5
2008  $ 90  Vantage Point $23, Be Kind Rewind $4
2008-11
Avg   $115




Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Act of Valor from Relativity, Gone from Summit, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds from Lionsgate and Wanderlust from Universal open wide.  These openings will be compared to Hall Pass ($13.5 million opening weekend) and Drive Angry 3D ($5.2 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today.

###

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 10-12

8:53 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in significantly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like an impressive $174 million for the weekend, up a very strong 29% from last year's disaster weekend and, even more significant, up 15% from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Two films opened with around $40 million weekends (The Vow with $41.7 million and Safe House with $39.3 million), and two films opened with around $25 million (Journey 2: The Mysterious Island with $27.6 million and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D with $23.0 million).  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)

On Friday The Vow beat Safe House by about $1.5 million ($15.325 million to $13.800 million), while on Saturday the race was very close ($16.700 million for The Vow to $16.600 million for Safe House).  But Sunday is expected to go to The Vow by a margin of almost $1 million ($9.675 million to $8.900 million).  The Vow is expected to beat Safe House by about $1.4 million for the entire weekend, although that margin could close when the final numbers are in Monday.  Either way, two very impressive openings by two nicely counter-programmed films.

As expected, Phantom Menace in 3D was incredibly front-loaded by sci-fi fans who love special effects and care little about a coasting director who specializes in recycling his direction of even great actors (Liam Neeson and Natalie Portman) toward wooden performances to match inexperienced, untalented child actors (Jake Lloyd).  For a complete look at George Lucas and his infatuation with technology at the expense of humanity in his films, read Mitch Salem's review of the 3D re-release of Phantom Menace.  On opening night, Phantom Menace beat Journey 2 by more than $2 million ($8.650 million to $6.570 million), but Journey 2 pounded back on Saturday, winning by more than $4 million ($12.715 million to $8.550 million).  A similarly wide margin is expected Sunday ($8.265 million to $5.800 million for Phantom Menace).     

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  The Vow ($116 million), Safe House ($114 million), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($79 million) and Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace in 3D ($63 million).    


The second week movies:  Chronicle ($71 million, adjusted up), The Woman in Black ($58 million, steady) and Big Miracle ($23 million, adjusted down). 

The third week movies have been adjusted:  The Grey ($56 million, down slightly again), One for the Money ($25 million, down slightly), Man on a Ledge ($19 million, down slightly).  In its third wide-release week, The Artist ($32 million) is holding steady.


February 10-12                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Vow                  (Sony)     $41.7             $116
Safe House                (Uni)     $39.3             $114
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $27.6             $ 79
Phantom Menace 3D         (Fox)     $23.0             $ 63
Chronicle                 (Fox)     $12.3   -44%      $ 71+
The Woman in Black        (CBS)     $10.3   -51%      $ 58
The Grey            (Open Road)     $ 5.1   -45%      $ 56
Big Miracle               (Uni)     $ 3.9   -50%      $ 23-
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.5   -23%      $ 80
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $ 2.5   -55%      $ 65
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $ 2.4   -49%      $ 51
One for the Money          (LG)     $ 2.3   -56%      $ 25



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  




Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $174 million total Friday-Sunday, up 29% from the same calendar weekend last year and more impressively up 15% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #6


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $174  The Vow $42, Safe House $39, Journey 2 $28
2011  $135  Just Go With It $30, Justin Bieber $29, Gnomeo $25
2010  $189  Valentine's Day $56, Percy Jackson $31, Wolfman $31
2009  $163  Friday 13th $41, Confessions Shopaholic $15
2008  $118  Jumper $27, Spiderwick Chron $19, Step Up 2 $19

2008-11
Avg   $151



Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance from Sony, This Means War from 20th Century Fox and The Secret World of Arrietty from Disney open wide.  These openings will be compared to Unknown ($21.9 million opening weekend), I Am Number Four ($19.4 million) and Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son ($16.3 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)