RSS
Showing posts with label This Week Last Year. Show all posts
Showing posts with label This Week Last Year. Show all posts

TUESDAY MAR 29 NUMBERS: Limitless Back on Top

1:12 PM | Labels: , ,

Limitless moved back to #1 Tuesday and increased a healthy 12% from Monday (significantly better than the average 4% increase for March movies on their second Tuesday).  Sucker Punch drops to #2 with a 4% decline (a bit worse than the 1% average drop for March movies on day five).  The Lincoln Lawyer rebounded with a strong 16% increase from Monday, moving back over the $1 million threshold.   

                       Tuesday   vs Mon
1. Limitless (Rel)      $1.43     +12% 
2. Sucker Punch (WB)    $1.30     - 4%
3. Diary Wimpy 2 (Fox)  $1.11     - 9%
4. Lincoln Lawyer (LG)  $1.09     +16%
5. Rango (Par)          $0.73     - 1%

Come back tomorrow for Weekend Predictions for Hop (Universal), Source Code (Summit) and Insidious (FilmDistrict), as well as the holdovers.  As we said a few days ago, this weekend will face some tough comparisons versus the last two years.  This weekend last year was dominated by Clash of the Titans and its $61 million opening and two $29 million performances: the opening of Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Too and weekend two of How to Train Your Dragon.  Similarly, 2009 boasted a $71 million opening by Fast & Furious and a strong $32 million second weekend from Monsters vs Aliens.     

Top 12 Films: First Weekend in April

     Volume
2007-10
Avg   $127  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $169  Clash Titans $61, Why Married Too $29, Last Song $16
2009  $149  Fast & Furious $71, Adventureland $6 
2008  $ 80  Nim's Island $13, Leatherheads $13, The Ruins $8
2007  $110  Are We Done Yet? $14, Grindhouse $12, The Reaping $10

--Mitch Metcalf

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

IS THE SLUMP OVER?: This Weekend Last Year

3:00 PM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The box office slump early in the year appears to have lessened the last few weeks.  The first six weeks of the year were truly awful – six straight weekends below the comparable weekend averages for the top 12 films the last four years (looking at four years smoothes out any excessively low or high weekends like Avatar or Alice in Wonderland frames).  The first six weekends of the year: 


  • Jan 7-9 $99 million -18%
  • Jan 14-16 $115 million -12%
  • Jan 21-23 $89 million -24%
  • Jan 28-30 $92 million -4%
  • Feb 4-6 $73 million -29%
  • Feb 11-13 $135 million -12% 

And then, thankfully, the weekend of Feb 18-20 came with $130 million +20% (three movies were above or near $20 million for the weekend: the openings of Unknown and I Am Number Four and the second weekend of Gnomeo & Juliet).  The next three weeks had mixed results:
  • Feb 23-25 $95 million +1%
  • Mar 2-4 $121 million -6% 
  • Mar 11-13 $135 million +8%

So where do we go from here?  The past is not a reliable guide.  Only the quality – or more precisely the entertainment value – of the upcoming movies will determine the fate of the box office.  The number to beat this weekend is $108 million.  Stay tuned throughout the weekend to see whether this weekend is marked red or green.

The 11th weekend of the year is ranked 33rd (out of 52) in total box office volume.  Last week is ranked 31st and next week is ranked 30th. 

To give some context, here is how the movies released the last two years performed in terms of opening weekend prediction and final estimate of total domestic gross.

3/19/10
The Bounty Hunter (Sony) Opening Weekend Forecast $22; Actual: $21.
Final estimate (week 2): $62. Actual Final: $67. International: $69

Diary of a Wimpy Kid (Fox) Opening Weekend Forecast $17; Actual: $22.
Final estimate (week 2): $57. Actual Final: $64. International: $4

Repo Men (Universal) Opening Weekend Forecast $10; Actual: $6.
Final estimate (week 2): $15. Actual Final: $14. International: $4

3/20/09
I Love You, Man (Paramount) Opening Weekend Forecast $20; Actual: $18.
Final estimate (week 2): $74. Actual Final: $71. International: $20

Knowing (Summit) Opening Weekend Forecast $17; Actual: $25.
Final estimate (week 2): $79. Actual Final: $80. International: $96

Duplicity (Universal) Opening Weekend Forecast $15; Actual: $14.
Final estimate (week 2): $46. Actual Final: $41. International: $38

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)