Movie Box Review

DreamWorks Animation can blame the weather for diminishing its PUSS IN BOOTS number--although there seemed to be little effect on the weekend's other openings--but $34M is awfully low for a major animated release.  (And no one will be surprised to see the actual figure fall tomorrow by $400K or more, which is the margin by which it's claiming a Halloween weekend record.)  With only 2 more weeks until Happy Feet 2 arrives to take over the market, there's even the possibility that it won't get over $100M in the US. It's off to a good start overseas, though, with $17M in only 3 territories, mostly from Russia, enough to tie PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3's take from 48 territories.

Overseas, in fact, was where all the action was this weekend.  The most impressive boxoffice number this week was  Steven Spielberg's ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, which won't open in the US for almost 2 more months.  It had a splendid launch in 19 territories with $55M. (Those are major territories, so the estimate is that they come to over 50% of the film's international potential.)

Meanwhile, IN TIME was also more of a success story overseas ($14M from 35 territories) than in the US, where it only managed $12M.   THE RUM DIARY doesn't seem to have opened overseas yet, although it would take quite a bit to offset its dismal US performance.

Back in the US, PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3's weekend hold was unexceptional, but its opening was so huge that it's still running well ahead of the second chapter in the series.  MONEYBALL, THE IDES OF MARCH and DOLPHIN TALE all lost large chunks of their theatres, accounting for their largest weekend declines to date, while REAL STEEL was battered by the arrival of Puss In Boots into the family market. (Real Steel has gone over $100M overseas, only a moderate number these days.)

PUSS IN BOOTS will have 3 weeks in theatres without serious competition for its target audience (until Happy Feet 2 opens on November 18), which is why DreamWorks moved the opening back a week.  The picture can use the help, since its $35M opening is far from overwhelming.  However, it should perform well overseas--especially in Spanish-speaking territories--so it's likely to end up in decent shape. Whether it will be strong enough to launch a new franchise, as the studio had hoped, is less clear.

Not much to say about IN TIME and THE RUM DIARY.  Neither has much chance of earning back its production and marketing costs.  In Time is a step back for Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried, neither of whom seem able to carry a movie that doesn't have something else to sell.  Rum Diary was basically a vanity project for Johnny Depp, undertaken because of his veneration for Hunter S. Thompson (Depp is also a producer of the film), and studios that finance vanity projects do so at their own risk.  (After Rum Diary and The Playboy Club, Amber Heard should probably avoid projects set in the 1960s.)

With Puss In Boots in the market, all the holdovers took major hits, although considering the front-loaded nature of the horror genre, PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3's hold was fine, and it's running far ahead of  Paranormal 2's pace. 

Sony's cut-back opening of ANONYMOUS was unimpressive, with perhaps $3500 in each of 265 theatres. Paramount launched LIKE CRAZY well in the traditional 4 theatre NY/LA prestige film pattern, and should hit just about the same $35K per theatre that THE SKIN I LIVE IN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE did in the past 2 weeks.  

Both of those movies expanded their runs this weekend to 32 theatres, which represented a tripling of Skin's release and a jump from 4 for Martha.  Martha is doing somewhat better, with probably $7K in each, while Skin isn't too far behind with $5500.  Additional widening in the next few weeks will tell the tale on both.  MARGIN CALL has had a more aggressive release strategy than either, and broadened to 140 theatres this weekend while remaining available on VOD.  It's headed for a healthy $4500 per theatre and has already grossed $1.4M (not counting VOD revenues) and seems able to get to $3M+.

Next weekend brings comedies of different stripes:  Universal's all-quadrant TOWER HEIST and A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS.  The latter is likely to be more front-loaded, which could make for an interesting first couple of days.

The Hollywood Reporter has preliminary boxoffice numbers for Friday, and as expected, PUSS IN BOOTS will be the easy weekend winner.  Its $9-9.5M on Friday, if it holds, would probably mean $36-38M for the weekend, which would be a Halloween weekend record, but considerably below other fall animated films like Megamind ($12.5M Friday for a $46M weekend) and Madagascar 2 ($17.5M Friday for a $63M weekend).  Right now it's looking most like Bee Movie, which started the first week in November 2007 at $10M en route to a $40M opening weekend and ultimate $126M gross.  These days animated movies routinely make much more overseas than in the US, but that's still a soft number for a picture that probably cost over $300M in production and marketing costs. 

The other openings are at a much lower level.  IN TIME is meeting its low target with around $5M on Friday for a $12-13M weekend, and THE RUM DIARY can't even claim that, with about $2M on Friday for perhaps $6M over the weekend.  

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 plunged in comparison with last Friday, which was inevitable given that last week's included a huge Thursday midnight component, but the picture will still own 2d place for the weekend with around $20M.  FOOTLOOSE should take in another $5-6M in its 3rd weekend.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 continues Paramount's license to print money--it'll soon be in profit even with worldwide marketing costs calculated in.  Yesterday will probably prove to be by far the biggest day of its front-loaded run, but at those prices, who cares?

Sometimes it's not about the marketing--it's about the movie.  It would be difficult, if not impossible, to find 30 seconds of the godawful THREE MUSKETEERS remake that could be cut into a promo that would make anyone want to see it.  The movie reportedly cost $90M, and even though Summit seems not to be on the hook for much of the production cost, they won't even recoup their prints and marketing expenses.  The best thing about this is that it should mean the sequel threatened in the final scene won't actually be made.

If not for relationship issues, Universal would probably have let JOHNNY ENGLISH REBORN slip quietly to direct-to-homevideo in the US, since there was already plenty of evidence that Rowan Atkinson has no boxoffice appeal on American soil.  As it is, they gave it a stealth opening in only 1500 theatres and with little marketing behind it.  Now that it's over, they'll continue to pour cash into TOWER HEIST, opening in 2 weeks.

With the exception of horror movies THE THING and DREAM HOUSE, there was no competition for any of the holdovers, and they all did very well, with 20-30% weekend drops.  (Well, all but THE BIG YEAR, which continued to be a movie no one wanted to see.)  The free ride for the family movies, however, ends this week with Friday's arrival of PUSS IN BOOTS.

There was no audience for the G-rated sports movie THE MIGHTY MACS, which will be lucky to hit a $1K average in almost 1000 theatres.  Emilio Estevez's spiritual-themed THE WAY almost tripled its count and did passably, with about $1750 in each of 280 theatres.

Two excellent indies made their debuts this weekend with very different release strategies.  MARGIN CALL opened at a surprisingly wide 56 theatres, and is also available on VOD, meaning its theatrical numbers are only part of the picture (studios don't release their VOD figures).  Despite that, it's headed for a very impressive $10K per theatre, which puts it on track to be one of the relatively few VOD titles to also exceed $1M in theatre revenues.  Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight gave MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE a more conventional showcase opening in NY/LA only, and is headed for a superb $35K in each of its 4 theatres.  That's roughly the same per-screen as THE SKIN I LIVE IN had last week in 6, but as often happens, when that film expanded this weekend to 21 houses, its per-theatre number went down to a still-good $11K.

Halloween weekend is a soft one for teen business, due to all the social events the holiday brings with it, and consequently the only major opening on Friday is DreamWorks' Puss In Boots for the kiddies.  Fox's IN TIME features a host of young actors who are trying to prove they can carry an action movie (Justin Timberlake, Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Wilde), and the studio is putting some marketing cash behind it.  RUM DIARY is getting a wide opening, but it's more like the kind of indie Johnny Depp used to make in his pre-Captain Jack Sparrow days.  Also, Sony will open the Shakespeare-themed ANONYMOUS in around 250 theatres, having backed off their wacky initial notion of opening it wide.

One final note:  whether for ego, relationship or contractual minimum guarantee reasons, Universal has been utterly determined to get COWBOYS & ALIENS to the $100M mark, leaving it in hundreds of theatres long after much bigger hits have gone away.  Well, mission accomplished!  The picture has scratched its way to the goal, so everyone associated with the movie can be very proud.