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Showing posts with label tintin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tintin. Show all posts

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS through January 15

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol has moved up to a $320 million overseas tally, bringing the worldwide total to $554 million.  The fourth M:I is now the worldwide leader of the franchise.  Mission: Impossible 2 grossed $546.4 million ($215.4 million domestic and $331.0 million overseas), Mission: Impossible grossed $457.7 million ($181.0 million domestic and $276.7 million overseas) and Mission: Impossible 3 grossed $397.8 million ($134.0 million domestic and $263.8 million overseas).

Adventures of Tintin has now grossed almost $280 million overseas.  Although Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows has a lower overseas total, its domestic superior domestic total is keeping it ahead of Tintin in the worldwide race. 

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD



As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Boxoffice Report, New Year's Day wasn't the bonanza the studios were expecting it to be.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL's Sunday increase was less than half of the 33% projected, and it's likely to fall another 15-20% today, giving it a bit over $140M in total and diminishing chances to hit $200M in the end.  THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN was up only 6% on Sunday and is projecting negligible change today, which would put it just over $50M and unlikely to hit $75M.  YOUNG ADULT had only 2/3 of the 48% bump it was forecasting Sunday, and with a 20+% drop today, it'll be at $12M and in serious danger of never seeing $20M in total.


WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was up only 7% Sunday (instead of the 23% forecast), and with at least a 20% drop today, it'll be at $137M and hoping to get above $170M total.  NEW YEAR'S EVE, as expected, is done, with a 20% fall on Sunday and more than that today for a $47M total that will be lucky to get above $50M.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE was one of the few titles with some good news--a 55% Sunday increase and a small projected 16% drop today--but still, an $18.5K 4-day holiday average in 6 theatres is nowhere near where this movie wanted to be.

FOX:  ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED really faltered--instead of gaining 32% on Sunday, it fell another 6%, and is projecting little increase today.  That'll get it to $98M, with little prospect of getting much higher than $120M (almost $100M less than its predecessors).  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had twin 14% drops yesterday and today, and is looking at $44M for now, and perhaps $65M in all.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE didn't go up 19% on Sunday, as the studio projected--it went down 27%.  Nonetheless, the very bullish mouse-heads are predicting an 18% increase today.  If that comes true, the picture would have $45M in the bank and be headed to $75-80M (with Oscars as a wild card factor), but given the giant overestimate yesterday, all the numbers have to be in pencil at this point.  Disney is also predicting a huge 42% increase for THE MUPPETS despite an 8% decline yesterday, and we'll see about that one, too.

SONY:  The studio's projection of a 59% increase for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO yesterday sounded overoptimistic to the point of being unbalanced, and it was--the picture went up less than half that amount, only 24%.  The 20% fall estimated for today may be more reasonable, and would leave the picture at $60M, with dwindling chances of seeing a $100M total.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS was hoping to hold even on Sunday, but it went down 17%, with another 19% expected today.  That'll leave it at $40M, with a $5600 average over the 4-day holiday that's nothing special.  SHAME, on the other hand, had a terrific 83% increase on Sunday, and should decline 25% today.  It's still struggling, though, with a $4900 average in only 55 theatres over the long weekend.

WEINSTEIN COMPANYTHE ARTIST went down 2% instead of rising 20% on Sunday, and is forecasting another 20% drop today, giving it under a $10K average in only 167 theatres over the long weekend.  THE IRON LADY, though, held with an excellent $70K average in its 4-theatre launch.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN continued to sag with a $1900 average in 630 theatres over 4 days.

FOCUS:  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY wasn't quite where it looked to be (a $25K average over 4 days rather than $28K), but that's still enormously encouraging, a higher per-theatre number in 57 theatres than anything else has in more than 4.  PARIAH, in only 4 theatres, couldn't do better than $16K average over 4 days.

SONY CLASSICS:  The subtitled Iranian A SEPARATION is off to a very strong start with a $27K average in 3 theatres.  

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SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: THE HONORABLE MENTIONS



It's actually harder to come up with a manageable list of Honorable Mention movies than a Top 10, because there are so many films that are eminently worth seeking out and seeing, but perhaps a little bit flawed--sometimes too thin, sometimes too audacious for their own good.  It wouldn't have been much of a stretch to add 10 more to the very worthy titles listed (in alphabetical order) below:

50/50:  Writer Will Reiser turned his own serious experience with cancer into a satisfying, perceptive comedy-drama, with earned laughs and a minimum of sentimentality.  Terrific performances by Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Seth Rogen (playing a version of himself--a friend of Reiser's, he was also one of the film's producers), Anna Kendrick and Bryce Dallas Howard, and unmannered, self-effacing direction by Jonathan Levine.

BEGINNERS:  Mike Mills' semi-autobiographical tale of a man (Ewan McGregor) whose elderly dad (Christopher Plummer) comes out of the closet after decades of marriage and is then stricken with cancer was quirky (the subtitled dog) but also grounded in real emotion, and a seamless exercise in jumping between timeframes and moods.  Plummer deserves all the year-end honors he's getting, and McGregor and Melanie Laurent, as the new love in his life, were splendid.

BELLFLOWER:  The craziest, most exciting writing/directing debut of the year, Evan Glodell's fantasia was about pop culture, apocalyptic fantasy, doomed romance and fatal friendships.  It was all too much and too strange and sometimes miraculously brilliant.

CERTIFIED COPY:  A writer (William Shimell) meets a fan (Juliette Binoche), she takes him sightseeing, and as a lark they pretend to be a longtime couple--or was the pretense that they just met?  Abbas Kiarostami's exploration of shifting identities and realities is utterly different from the neorealist stories of his native Iran that made his reputation, an eloquent and probably unsolvable intellectual game.


CONTAGION:  The good news is that just when Steven Soderbergh seems to near his deadline for early retirement, he adds another project to his list.  Contagion was the scariest movie of 2011, a matter-of-fact, all too believable piece of fiction about a random virus that kills millions of people in mere weeks.  Even an uneven script (the Jude Law and Marion Cotillard episodes didn't work) and an all-star cast couldn't minimize the creepiness of the film's flawless semi-documentary execution.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Not as insightful or accomplished as its fans claim, but still a very good movie.  Alexander Payne's comedy-drama sacrifices believability for the star power of George Clooney and some easy gags, and it bogs down in a predictable, banal subplot.  The dialogue and performances, though, are mostly quite fine.

THE DOUBLE HOUR:  A couple meet at a speed dating night, and robbery and murder ensue.  But is that really what's going on?  Giuseppe Capotondi's romantic thriller was the twistiest, trickiest dazzler of the year, and one that mixed genuine emotion with its structural gamesmanship.  

DRIVE:  Nicolas Winding Refn's thriller was spectacularly well shot and edited, beautifully performed by a cast that included Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Bryan Cranston and especially the career-redefining Albert Brooks, and about absolutely nothing but its own devotion to the subgenre of 1970s moody action films.  As pastiches go, though, it was far less vapid than Super 8 or ponderous than War Horse.   

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2):  A worthy conclusion to the best franchise of the decade.  Not quite the jewel that chapters 3 and 4 were, but director David Yates, screenwriter Steve Kloves and the gigantic cast do J.K. Rowling's spectacular finale proud.

HIGHER GROUND:  A genuine rarity:  Vera Farmiga's directing debut, written by Carolyn S. Briggs and Tim Metcalfe, is a truly serious American movie about religion, its comforts and limitations.  Farmiga's performance was of course luminous, and she proved herself a strong, intelligent director of other actors (including Joshua Leonard, Dagmara Dominczyk, John Hawkes, and her own sister Taissa Farmiga) and exceptionally challenging material.

HUGO: Martin Scorsese isn't Ernst Lubitsch, and the portions where he tried to achieve that kind of effortless light touch were weak.  But the last section of the film, with its heartfelt salute to Georges Melies, one of the founders of cinema, and Scorsese's superbly crafted embrace of the latest in 3D technology (much in Melies's spirit) were exhilarating.

LIKE CRAZY:  Drake Doremus's highly improvised film owed a huge amount to its stars Anton Yelchin and Felicity Jones (and in a smaller role, Jennifer Lawrence), but its beautifully captured tone of fragile and desperate young love was its own.

MARGARET:  Kenneth Lonergan's cursed, long-delayed, still-not-finished post-9/11 drama doesn't hang together, and we may never know if it possibly could have (unless Fox Searchlight sets it free for a Criterion homevideo release).  It's tantalizingly close to brilliance, though, a narrowly-etched epic about teen idealism, selfishness, guilt and narcissism as embodied in Anna Paquin's remarkable performance, and the deeply troubled adults who surround her.

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE:  Elizabeth Olsen gave one of the year's truly breathtaking performances as a cult escapee, but no one went to see Sean Durkin's troubling, difficult, constantly-shifting drama.  John Hawkes' work as the cult's leader was even more frightening than his Oscar-nominated role in Winter's Bone


MELANCHOLIA:  The first half of big-mouth Lars Von Trier's epic was excellent dark comedy about a truly terrible wedding, sparked by a lovely performance by Kirsten Dunst.  The second was a moody end-of-the-world saga that partook a bit too much of European art film cliches.

A SEPARATION:  Asghar Farhadi's brilliant Iranian drama is the story of a collapsing marriage, class struggle, religion, the impossibility of true justice, and ever-so-subtly, that country's contemporary politics.  It's a deeply human story that manages to be incisive, emotionally complicated and a window on a very alien culture all at once.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY:  Fitting John LeCarre's legendarily complicated story into 2 hours was a Rubik's cube of a challenge, and Tomas Alfredson's film, written by Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughn, pulled it off--the only drawback was that having managed that feat, there was little room for the depth and nuance that made the novel and BBC dramatization into classics.  Gary Oldman, almost but not quite eclipsing the memory of Alec Guinness, headed a great British cast,

THE TREE OF LIFE:  Ah, Terence Malick!  Gorgeous, fabulously realized images of a Texas childhood, brilliantly performed by Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain and Hunter McCracken-- mixed with incredibly pretentious, flat-footed footage of dinosaurs, the formation of planets, and Sean Penn looking glum.  The year's most starkly mixed bag.

TYRANNOSAUR:  Nobody's idea of a fun night out at the movies, but Paddy Considine's directing debut, a paean to human misery and the search for love, featured towering performances by Peter Mullan, Olivia Colman and Eddie Marsan.

X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS:  Matthew Vaughn's prequel was itself the class of this year's superhero movies, a daring mix of CG magic and the Cuban Missile Crisis that was hurt only by Kevin Bacon and January Jones's lackluster villainy.  The exceptional cast included James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Rose Byrne and Nicholas Hoult.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 30-January 1

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like $151 million, up 2% from last year.  Saturday business (impacted by New Year's Eve) was not as rough as expected and the studio projections are now fairly rosy, as they are expecting a very strong Sunday (more on that below).  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally much stronger than reported yesterday.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the recent openers are headed for:  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($110 million), War Horse ($95 million), Adventures of Tintin ($90 million), We Bought a Zoo ($90 million) and The Darkest Hour ($31 million).

In the battle of the sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($190 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($130 million) and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($220 million) have each been adjusted up.

Business was especially brisk for War Horse on Saturday, with the Steven Spielberg film collecting $5.6 million New Year's Eve, up 20% from the $4.7 million Friday.  Most films, in contrast, declined 15-25% from Friday to Saturday, not bad considering New Year's parties cut significantly into the Saturday box office.



Dec 30 2011-Jan 1 2012              Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $31.3   + 6%      $220
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $22.1   + 9%      $190
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $18.3   +45%      $130
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $16.9   +125%     $ 95
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $16.3   +28%      $110
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $14.3   +53%      $ 90
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $12.0   +24%      $ 90
New Year's Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 6.7   +103%     $ 50 
Darkest Hour              (Sum)     $ 4.3   +43%      $ 31
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.7   +76%      $ 52 



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Mission: Impossible Film Track      Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Mission: Impossible      5.22.1996   $ 45.4    $181.0    $276.7

Mission: Impossible II   5.24.2000   $ 57.8    $215.4    $331.0
Mission: Impossible III  5.05.2006   $ 47.7    $134.0    $263.8



Total Box Office Volume 

After a very solid New Year's Eve Saturday, the Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $151 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #52


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $151  M:I 4 $31, Sherlock Holmes 2 $22, Alvin 3 $18 

2010  $149  Little Fockers $26, True Grit $24, TRON Legacy $19
2009  $209  Avatar $68, Sherlock Holmes $37, Alvin 2 $35

2008  $131  Marley & Me $24, Bedtime Stories $20, Benj Button $19
2007  $121  National Treasure $20, Juno $16, I Am Legend $16


2007-10
Avg   $153



HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE: Day by Day

The top 10 films on Friday grossed over $42 million collectively, a very good performance for a New Year's Eve.  The studios are very bullish for today, Sunday, January 1, with over $53 million estimated.  That number looks achievable based on last year, but remember that January 1 fell on a Saturday in the last holiday season.  2005 provides the best comparison -- Sunday, January 1 lifted 18% above Saturday, December 31.  The estimated 26% lift today from yesterday may be a touch over-stated.
 

                 DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29  $41.0 Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30  $49.6 Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31  $42.5 Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01  $53.4*Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun
Jan 02        Mon   $38.6 Sun   $20.4 Tue   $36.5 Mon


* - Estimated by Studios

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)


Next Weekend 

Next weekend, 2012 kicks off with The Devil Inside from Paramount on Friday, January 6.  Last year 2011 started horribly with Season of the Witch starring the incomparable Nicolas Cage ($10.6 million opening weekend) and Country Strong ($7.3 million).  

Look for updated weekend figures Monday.

###

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD



With one startling exception and a couple of smaller ones, the holiday crop of movies declined on Saturday and are expected to recover on New Year's Day.

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL went down 18% and is expected to rise 33% today.  It should hit $142M by the end of the 4-day holiday weekend.   THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is up and down a more orderly 23%, and should be at about $52M with the extra day.  HUGO was a little more stable, down only 7% but also up only 15%.  It should be just a touch below $50M by the end of Monday.  YOUNG ADULT went down 24% Saturday but is looking for a very large 48% increase on Sunday--even if that happens, it won't hit $13M by the end of the holidays.


WARNERSSHERLOCK HOLMES:  A GAME OF SHADOWS was down 16% and up 23%, and should be just under $140M coming out of the holidays.  NEW YEAR'S EVE had its last burst of audience interest on Dec. 31, and is one of the only movies expected to decline on Sunday.  It still won't be at $50M after Monday, and its shelf-life is now done.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE went down 22% and may only rise 10% on Sunday, giving it an unimpressive $17K average in 6 theatres for the 3-day weekend that should rise a bit to $20K with Monday included.  

DISNEY:  What got into WAR HORSE's hay on Saturday?  With almost every other picture falling as per seasonal pattern, and after an unexciting week at the boxoffice, Steven Spielberg's epic weirdly went up 20%, and expects to rise another 19% on Sunday.  It's hard to know what happened, but no doubt Disney and DreamWorks are hoping it's a harbinger of things to come.  The studio's only other picture in the market is THE MUPPETS, nearing the end of its run with perhaps $85M in total.

FOX:  ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED lost 32% on Saturday and should make up most of it on Sunday.  It should just get to $100M with Monday included.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO had a less bumpy ride, down only 7% on Saturday but also expecting a much smaller increase today, on its way to perhaps $47M after Monday.  

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO went down a standard 21% on Saturday, but is anticipating, for no clear reason, a whopping 59% increase on Sunday.  If that actually happens, it could be at $62M after Monday, although an ultimate gross of $100M may still be a stretch without some awards attention.

FOX SEARCHLIGHT:  THE DESCENDANTS had a good Saturday with a 15% increase, and is expecting to simply hold steady on Sunday--it should hit $40M with Monday included, but its $6K average for the long weekend is still only so-so.  In limited release, SHAME fell a heavy 38% on Saturday but is projecting a huge 65% Sunday increase--even if it achieves that, a $5K average over the 4-day weekend in only 55 theatres is, well, flaccid.

WEINSTEIN COMPANY:  All its films are in limited release.  THE ARTIST, in 167 theatres, is still very mild, reporting a 13% increase on Saturday and 20% more Sunday, which makes for a 4-day average around $10K.  THE IRON LADY is off to a great start but in only 4 theatres--down 15% then up 20%, it could hit a per-theatre average of $70K over 4 days.  MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, the company's widest release at 630 theatres, is still a picture no one wants to see.  Even with a small 6% drop on Saturday and a 20% Sunday increase, its 4-day average will probably be around $2K.

FOCUS:  The likely $28K 4-day average for TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY in 55 theatres is very impressive for a 4th weekend--now the question is when and how far the studio will expand it.  PARIAH's likely $15K average in 4 days and 4 theatres doesn't show much promise.

SONY CLASSICS:  A SEPARATION is off to a good start, with what should be a $25+K average in 3 theatres.  

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HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE: FRIDAY STUDIO SCORECARD



As detailed in Mitch Metcalf's Boxoffice Report, Friday's numbers were solid but lacking any breakout excitement.  First, let's take a quick look at the limited-run Oscar hopefuls:

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein):  Meryl-Streep-as-Margaret-Thatcher came roaring into the awards mix with a terrific $19K average in 4 theatres that should lead it to a $75-80K average over the 4 day holiday weekend.  The film's appeal outside big-city art houses is questionable, though, so here's one of several cases where Harvey Weinstein will have to play the expansion game very carefully.


A SEPARATION (Sony Classics):  This excellent Iranian import, a front-runner for the Foreign-Language Film Oscar, started with a very good $6K average in 3 theatres that should get it to around $25K per-theatre over the holiday weekend.

PARIAH (Focus):  Bounced back a bit from Thursday's slump, but its $3500 average in 4 theatres isn't a great start, and it may struggle to reach a $15K average for the weekend.

THE ARTIST (Weinstein):  Continues to be mediocre, with a $2400 average in 167 theatres that won't hit $10K by Jan 2.

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus):  Continues to hold very well, with a $6K average on Friday in 55 theatres that should reach $25K over the holiday weekend.

SHAME (Fox Searchlight):  Not doing better than OK, with a $1500 average on Friday in 55 theatres that might reach $6K for the weekend.  

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict)  The same numbers as Shame ($1500 average Friday for a $6K weekend), but much worse because it's only at 2 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein):  Harvey is 0-for-3 in the breakout hit category, with a dismal $500 average in 630 theatres that won't get past $2K for the weekend.

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight):  The Oscar front-runner no one seems to care about.  It only had a $1500 average in 758 theatres on Friday, and won't get higher than a $6K average for the weekend.  That will put it at $40M, in serious danger of dropping screens by the time the Oscar nominations are announced in late January.  At that point, it's going to be difficult to spark widespread excitement over a picture that's already been playing as a presumptive nominee for 2 full months.

And at the major studios:

PARAMOUNT:  MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL is the one smash hit of the season, even though it won't be the highest-grossing of the series.  With even bigger numbers pouring in overseas ($200M already, with plenty more to come), announcement of a 5th chapter in the series should be coming any time.  However, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (which Sony distributes overseas) is a major disappointment that will barely recoup its enormous US marketing cost, placing the planned franchise in jeopardy.  The very expensive HUGO, despite its critical adoration, is mostly done with $50M total gross--even an expected Oscar nomination probably won't get it much farther.  And YOUNG ADULT has found no traction at all--the reviews were weaker than expected, and with only $12.5M in the bank by the end of the holidays and an anticipated holiday average under $3K in only 987 theatres, even Charlize Theron's possible Best Actress nomination won't convince more theatres to play it.

WARNERS:  SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS will underperform its predecessor, but a $170-180M gross isn't bad (it might be more accurate to say the first picture overperformed, all things considered).  It's only played in a handful of foreign territories so far, and the results there will determine whether the expensive franchise is worth continuing.  NEW YEAR'S EVE is a flop, although not a very expensive one.  The big disappointment thus far is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which hit a perfect storm of bitterly mixed reviews, some bad scheduling choices and a faltering awards campaign.  This weekend it's headed for a $25K average in 6 theatres, which is OK but not at all the event that the studio needed to propel the film into wide release later in January.

FOXALVIN THE CHIPMUNKS:  CHIPWRECKED will be the highest-grossing kids' movie of the season, turn a profit and very possibly justify another installment--but its almost 50% drop from the other films in the series is fairly disastrous, and turns what had been a cash cow into a risk.  WE BOUGHT A ZOO will need help from uncertain foreign revenues if it's to avoid red ink.

SONY:  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO isn't the flop of the season, but it may be the biggest disappointment.  Was it the favorable-but-not-enthusiastic reviews?  The dour tone of the marketing?  An overdose of the franchise, after the successful Swedish films and months of publicity?  In any case, it's going to be hard to justify spending $100M on the sequel--and Fincher, who's perpetually in demand, may well decide to bow out.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS, though--that's an (undeserved) flop.

DISNEY:  WAR HORSE is sparking very little interest, and at this point seems unlikely to reach $100M despite very aggressive marketing, even with the anticipated Oscar nominations.  It's ironic that since DreamWorks joined Disney, their one smash hit has been the completely unexpected The Help.  This also leads to what could be a very ticklish internal political issue:  does The Help now have a better chance at winning the Oscar than War Horse?  And will Spielberg allow his pet project to fall to second place in the campaigning strategy?  Meanwhile THE MUPPETS was a nice-sized hit due to its relatively modest budget, but it's far from clear that there's a franchise there.  The combined grosses of Disney's 2 holiday pictures won't reach the boxoffice for 2010's Tangled alone--combined with the disappointing US responses to Cars 2 and Pirates 4, it's been an off-year for the studio.

UNIVERSAL:  Sat out the holiday season entirely.  They've been spending a lot of money marketing the Mark Wahlberg action picture CONTRABAND all month, though, giving it the kind of weeks-long push that normally goes to much bigger pictures.  We'll find out in a couple of weeks if the strategy made sense.

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Box Office Results WEDNESDAY December 28

Box office volume drifted down a preliminary 9% Wednesday from Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $41.5 million (almost exactly matching last year's December 28 total, when the date fell on a Tuesday, and up slightly from 2005 when that day also was on a Wednesday).  Click "read more" to see an updated daily top 10 movie chart and be sure to read Mitch Salem's Wednesday Edition of HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE


                DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29        Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30        Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31        Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01        Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun



NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

Updated chart of the top 10 movies currently in release follows, ranked by the Monday-Wednesday total gross.

Domestic Box Office (millions)   MON-     TUE     WED    WED
                                  WED    Dec27   Dec28  vs TUE
Mission: Impossible 4    (Par)   $32.7   $ 9.6   $ 8.5   -12%
Sherlock Holmes 2         (WB)   $24.7   $ 7.3   $ 6.5   -11%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      (Fox)   $20.3   $ 6.8   $ 6.6   - 4%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony)   $15.5   $ 4.7   $ 4.2   - 9%
War Horse                (Dis)   $14.9   $ 4.3   $ 3.7   -11%
Adventures of Tintin     (Par)   $14.1   $ 4.6   $ 4.1   -11%
We Bought a Zoo          (Fox)   $13.6   $ 4.3   $ 4.0   - 6%
New Year's Eve            (WB)   $ 5.2   $ 1.7   $ 1.7   + 3%
Darkest Hour             (Sum)   $ 4.8   $ 1.5   $ 1.2   -15%
The Muppets              (Dis)   $ 3.1   $ 1.0   $ 1.0   - 0%


Top 10                                   $45.6   $41.5   - 9%


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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS Dec 30-Jan 1

No new wide releases this weekend, the final weekend of the year as we welcome the arrival of 2012.  We are estimating a box office volume of $145 million for Friday-Sunday for the top 12 films, up 27% from $114 million last weekend (which was limited by Christmas Eve on Saturday) and down only 2% from this weekend last year.           



With Christmas Eve's low numbers in last weekend's tallies, the crop of holdovers have a great chance of growing in their second weekend.  War Horse will show a particularly large weekend gain, although that is based on the fact that it played only one day in the last Friday-Sunday period.     


                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
Dec 30-Jan 1                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Mission: Impossible 4   Par       + 6%      $31.2     $190
Sherlock Holmes 2        WB       + 9%      $22.0     $155
Alvin & Chipmunks 3     Fox       +45%      $18.5     $100

War Horse            DW/Dis      +110%      $15.5     $ 75

Girl with Dragon Tattoo Sony      + 9%      $14.0     $ 95
Adventures of Tintin    Par       +39%      $13.5     $ 90
We Bought a Zoo         Fox       +39%      $13.0     $ 75 

New Year's Eve           WB       +66%      $ 5.5     $ 40
Darkest Hour            Sum       +27%      $ 3.8     $ 35
    
Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $153 million total, ranking 10th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $149 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $209 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, down 2% from this weekend last year.          



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the New Year's weekend and the conclusion of holiday week shapes up.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is looking, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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Box Office Results TUESDAY December 27

Box office volume came back down to a normal level on Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $45.5 million (up slightly from the $40-42 million for the December 27 date when it also fell on an early weekday in 2005, 2006 and 2011).  The torrid pace on Monday has been adjusted down to $61.8 (from an initial estimate of $67.8 million), still a very impressive number however. 


                DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8*Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.5 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28        Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29        Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30        Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31        Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01        Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun

*-Mon Dec 26 adjusted down from $67.8 million

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

In this week between Christmas and New Year's, when a weekday generates box office returns similar to a normal weekend daily number, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol remains the movie to beat.  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is a very respectable second place, and both films at the top exhibited a fairly normal drop from Monday to Tuesday.  Films with a sizable kid audience (Alvin, Tintin and We Bought a Zoo) had much lower than average declines from Monday to Tuesday, but the latter two are not setting the world on fire.  Interestingly, War Horse had the biggest drop on Tuesday.  Because of its late release date (Sunday, December 25), War Horse has a lot of ground to make up compared to the other films and it really needs to do better than $4.3 million on a day like Tuesday (ranking 7th on the day, after ranking 3rd Monday) to stay relevant.

Domestic Box Office (millions)   MON-     MON     TUE    TUE
                                  TUE    Dec26   Dec27  vs MON
Mission: Impossible 4    (Par)   $24.2   $14.6   $ 9.6   -34%
Sherlock Holmes 2         (WB)   $18.1   $10.8   $ 7.3   -32%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      (Fox)   $13.8   $ 6.9   $ 6.8   - 2%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony)   $11.4   $ 6.7   $ 4.7   -31%
War Horse                (Dis)   $11.2   $ 7.0   $ 4.3   -41%
Adventures of Tintin     (Par)   $10.0   $ 5.4   $ 4.6   -15%
We Bought a Zoo          (Fox)   $ 9.5   $ 5.2   $ 4.3   -18%
New Year's Eve            (WB)   $ 3.5   $ 1.9   $ 1.7   -12%
Darkest Hour             (Sum)   $ 3.5   $ 2.1   $ 1.5   -30%
The Muppets              (Dis)   $ 2.1   $ 1.1   $ 1.0   -10%


Top 10                                   $61.8   $45.5   -26%

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HOLIDAY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE December 23-26

Based on actual results for Friday, December 23-Sunday, December 25 and studio projections for Monday, December 26, the four-day holiday weekend continues to look dominated by Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, soft openings for Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo.  However, War Horse is showing promise in its limited run so far (opening Sunday), while The Darkest Hour (also opening Sunday) is doing very little business, another attempt at the curious strategy of opening a horror-themed film on Christmas Day.

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I film) is looking like $46.2 million Friday-Monday, with $78.6 million to date domestically.  

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (the second Holmes) is looking like $31.8 million from Friday-Monday and $90.6 million to date domestically.


Holdover Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked (the third in the series) is headed for $20.0 million Friday-Monday and $56.9 million to date domestically.
Newcomer Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is on pace for $19.4 million Friday-Monday and $28.8 million since its Wednesday opening.

In a similar release pattern, The Adventures of TIntin is headed for $16.1 million Friday-Monday and $24.1 million since Wednesday.
Opening Friday, We Bought a Zoo is headed for $15.6 million Friday-Monday.

With only two days under its belt, War Horse should stand with $15.0 million Sunday-Monday.  To put this number in perspective, if War Horse had opened Wednesday or Friday, it would probably be ranked in third place overall, just after Sherlock Holmes with around $24-25 million for the four-day holiday weekend.
Finally, also opening Sunday, The Darkest Hour is DOA with $5.5 million projected Sunday-Monday.

Preliminary international numbers will be posted shortly.  Updates of projected domestic final figures for each film will be updated later in the week.
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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 23-25

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like only $100 million, down 24% from last year.  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally lower than originally forecast yesterday.  After Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, nothing is really catching fire.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening this weekend are headed for:  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($92 million), Adventures of Tintin ($79 million) and We Bought a Zoo ($64 million).

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($131 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($92 million), and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($164 million) have each been adjusted downward.

Among the third week films, New Year's Eve ($40 million) and The Sitter ($25 million) are holding steady. 





December 23-25, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $26.5   +108%     $164
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $17.8   -55%      $131
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $13.3   -43%      $ 92
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $13.0             $ 92
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $ 9.1             $ 79
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $ 7.8             $ 64
New Year's Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 3.0   -59%      $ 40 
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $ 2.7   -24%      $ 58 

Hugo                      (Par)     $ 2.0   -45%      $ 56

The Muppets               (Dis)     $ 2.0   -43%      $ 87



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Mission: Impossible Film Track      Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Mission: Impossible      5.22.1996   $ 45.4    $181.0    $276.7

Mission: Impossible II   5.24.2000   $ 57.8    $215.4    $331.0
Mission: Impossible III  5.05.2006   $ 47.7    $134.0    $263.8



Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very weak $100 million total Friday-Sunday, down 24% from the same calendar weekend last year and even below last weekend's sub-par $110 million.         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #51


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $100  M:I 4 $29, Girl Dragon Tattoo $15, Adv Tintin $10 

2010  $132  Little Fockers $31, True Grit $25, Gulliver's Trav $6
2009  $260  Sherlock Holmes $62, Alvin Chipmunks 2 $49
2008  $180  Marley & Me $36, Benj Button $27, Bedtime Stories $27
2007  $169  Juno $11, Aliens vs Predators $10
2007-10
Avg   $185 



Next Weekend 

Next weekend, as is traditional, no new films open wide as the Christmas movies play through New Year's.

Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the day Sunday.  We will also have preliminary numbers for the Sunday opening of War Horse and The Darkest Hour on Monday.

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