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Showing posts with label like crazy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label like crazy. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: THE HONORABLE MENTIONS



It's actually harder to come up with a manageable list of Honorable Mention movies than a Top 10, because there are so many films that are eminently worth seeking out and seeing, but perhaps a little bit flawed--sometimes too thin, sometimes too audacious for their own good.  It wouldn't have been much of a stretch to add 10 more to the very worthy titles listed (in alphabetical order) below:

50/50:  Writer Will Reiser turned his own serious experience with cancer into a satisfying, perceptive comedy-drama, with earned laughs and a minimum of sentimentality.  Terrific performances by Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Seth Rogen (playing a version of himself--a friend of Reiser's, he was also one of the film's producers), Anna Kendrick and Bryce Dallas Howard, and unmannered, self-effacing direction by Jonathan Levine.

BEGINNERS:  Mike Mills' semi-autobiographical tale of a man (Ewan McGregor) whose elderly dad (Christopher Plummer) comes out of the closet after decades of marriage and is then stricken with cancer was quirky (the subtitled dog) but also grounded in real emotion, and a seamless exercise in jumping between timeframes and moods.  Plummer deserves all the year-end honors he's getting, and McGregor and Melanie Laurent, as the new love in his life, were splendid.

BELLFLOWER:  The craziest, most exciting writing/directing debut of the year, Evan Glodell's fantasia was about pop culture, apocalyptic fantasy, doomed romance and fatal friendships.  It was all too much and too strange and sometimes miraculously brilliant.

CERTIFIED COPY:  A writer (William Shimell) meets a fan (Juliette Binoche), she takes him sightseeing, and as a lark they pretend to be a longtime couple--or was the pretense that they just met?  Abbas Kiarostami's exploration of shifting identities and realities is utterly different from the neorealist stories of his native Iran that made his reputation, an eloquent and probably unsolvable intellectual game.


CONTAGION:  The good news is that just when Steven Soderbergh seems to near his deadline for early retirement, he adds another project to his list.  Contagion was the scariest movie of 2011, a matter-of-fact, all too believable piece of fiction about a random virus that kills millions of people in mere weeks.  Even an uneven script (the Jude Law and Marion Cotillard episodes didn't work) and an all-star cast couldn't minimize the creepiness of the film's flawless semi-documentary execution.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Not as insightful or accomplished as its fans claim, but still a very good movie.  Alexander Payne's comedy-drama sacrifices believability for the star power of George Clooney and some easy gags, and it bogs down in a predictable, banal subplot.  The dialogue and performances, though, are mostly quite fine.

THE DOUBLE HOUR:  A couple meet at a speed dating night, and robbery and murder ensue.  But is that really what's going on?  Giuseppe Capotondi's romantic thriller was the twistiest, trickiest dazzler of the year, and one that mixed genuine emotion with its structural gamesmanship.  

DRIVE:  Nicolas Winding Refn's thriller was spectacularly well shot and edited, beautifully performed by a cast that included Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Bryan Cranston and especially the career-redefining Albert Brooks, and about absolutely nothing but its own devotion to the subgenre of 1970s moody action films.  As pastiches go, though, it was far less vapid than Super 8 or ponderous than War Horse.   

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2):  A worthy conclusion to the best franchise of the decade.  Not quite the jewel that chapters 3 and 4 were, but director David Yates, screenwriter Steve Kloves and the gigantic cast do J.K. Rowling's spectacular finale proud.

HIGHER GROUND:  A genuine rarity:  Vera Farmiga's directing debut, written by Carolyn S. Briggs and Tim Metcalfe, is a truly serious American movie about religion, its comforts and limitations.  Farmiga's performance was of course luminous, and she proved herself a strong, intelligent director of other actors (including Joshua Leonard, Dagmara Dominczyk, John Hawkes, and her own sister Taissa Farmiga) and exceptionally challenging material.

HUGO: Martin Scorsese isn't Ernst Lubitsch, and the portions where he tried to achieve that kind of effortless light touch were weak.  But the last section of the film, with its heartfelt salute to Georges Melies, one of the founders of cinema, and Scorsese's superbly crafted embrace of the latest in 3D technology (much in Melies's spirit) were exhilarating.

LIKE CRAZY:  Drake Doremus's highly improvised film owed a huge amount to its stars Anton Yelchin and Felicity Jones (and in a smaller role, Jennifer Lawrence), but its beautifully captured tone of fragile and desperate young love was its own.

MARGARET:  Kenneth Lonergan's cursed, long-delayed, still-not-finished post-9/11 drama doesn't hang together, and we may never know if it possibly could have (unless Fox Searchlight sets it free for a Criterion homevideo release).  It's tantalizingly close to brilliance, though, a narrowly-etched epic about teen idealism, selfishness, guilt and narcissism as embodied in Anna Paquin's remarkable performance, and the deeply troubled adults who surround her.

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE:  Elizabeth Olsen gave one of the year's truly breathtaking performances as a cult escapee, but no one went to see Sean Durkin's troubling, difficult, constantly-shifting drama.  John Hawkes' work as the cult's leader was even more frightening than his Oscar-nominated role in Winter's Bone


MELANCHOLIA:  The first half of big-mouth Lars Von Trier's epic was excellent dark comedy about a truly terrible wedding, sparked by a lovely performance by Kirsten Dunst.  The second was a moody end-of-the-world saga that partook a bit too much of European art film cliches.

A SEPARATION:  Asghar Farhadi's brilliant Iranian drama is the story of a collapsing marriage, class struggle, religion, the impossibility of true justice, and ever-so-subtly, that country's contemporary politics.  It's a deeply human story that manages to be incisive, emotionally complicated and a window on a very alien culture all at once.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY:  Fitting John LeCarre's legendarily complicated story into 2 hours was a Rubik's cube of a challenge, and Tomas Alfredson's film, written by Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughn, pulled it off--the only drawback was that having managed that feat, there was little room for the depth and nuance that made the novel and BBC dramatization into classics.  Gary Oldman, almost but not quite eclipsing the memory of Alec Guinness, headed a great British cast,

THE TREE OF LIFE:  Ah, Terence Malick!  Gorgeous, fabulously realized images of a Texas childhood, brilliantly performed by Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain and Hunter McCracken-- mixed with incredibly pretentious, flat-footed footage of dinosaurs, the formation of planets, and Sean Penn looking glum.  The year's most starkly mixed bag.

TYRANNOSAUR:  Nobody's idea of a fun night out at the movies, but Paddy Considine's directing debut, a paean to human misery and the search for love, featured towering performances by Peter Mullan, Olivia Colman and Eddie Marsan.

X-MEN:  FIRST CLASS:  Matthew Vaughn's prequel was itself the class of this year's superhero movies, a daring mix of CG magic and the Cuban Missile Crisis that was hurt only by Kevin Bacon and January Jones's lackluster villainy.  The exceptional cast included James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Rose Byrne and Nicholas Hoult.

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Although BD1 had greater declines on Friday (as opposed to Thursday midnight) and Saturday than New Moon did in 2009, Summit's weekend estimate assumes exactly the same 34% drop for Sunday.  So it's possible their $139.5M figure could come down a bit in the actuals tomorrow (which could move the film behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2's $138.6 and make it the 6th rather than 5th biggest opener ever).  BD2 also launched worldwide and made $144M overseas--that's huge of course, but while New Moon's international opening weekend was "only" $132.5M, that was in just 25 territories rather than BD1's 54.


HAPPY FEET TWO:  $22M is just this side of wretched, and even that number assumes a very low 28% drop for Sunday.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Off to a good start with a very strong $42K per theatre average, but the test will come when it expands semi-widely on Wednesday.

HOLDOVERS:  Despite its big opening, IMMORTALS won't do much more than break even in the US (and that's accepting Relativity's claim that after foreign presales it only carried $25M of the production cost), and like many an action movie before it, will have to do big business overseas to hit profit.  JACK AND JILL is likely to be the first Adam Sandler comedy vehicle to actually lose money in a very long time.  J. EDGAR's 47% drop is quite bad for a picture that's hoping to linger in theatres and play a part in the Oscar race, and it's going to need some support from the early awards at the end of this month if it's to have any chance.  The smartest scheduling decision of the entire year may have been DreamWorks Animation's one-week move of PUSS IN BOOTS, which has turned out to be the difference between a moderate success (probably around the level of Megamind's $148M) and what would have been a serious disappointment.  It's looking like PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 won't manage to outgross the original's $108M to become the franchise's highest grosser, but Paramount will be quite fine with $105M or so, thanks very much.  

INDIESLIKE CRAZY expanded nicely to 108 theatres with what should be about a $5K average in each.  MARGIN CALL continues to hold extremely well, with a $2500 average at 173, and now seems like it should get to $5M in theatrical revenues alone (not counting the simultaneous VOD release).  THE SKIN I LIVE IN expanded to 111 theatres and had an OK $2500 average.  MELANCHOLIA expanded to 56 theatres with a pretty good $5500 average.   MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE isn't finding much traction with a $2100 average in 180.  TAKE SHELTER will need some awards support for Michael Shannon, as it fell to a $1400 average in 74.  In smaller openings, ANOTHER HAPPY DAY, boosted by Q&As with Ellen Barkin (a producer as well as star), made it to an average of about $4500 in 2 theatres, which was a lot better than TYRANNOSAUR's $1500 average in 5.

Next week:  an odd mix of big-budget family movies and some of the year's most serious Oscar hopefuls.

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: FRIDAY STUDIO SCORECARD



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Christmas comes but once a year, and for Summit that day is the 24 hours after a Twilight movie opens.  (A little credit to the studio, too, for not fudging the numbers, which would have been easy enough to do since they're so close, in order to claim a franchise record for Friday.)  The $72M Breaking Dawn earned was a bit more front-loaded from Thursday midnight screenings than New Moon's $72.7M had been in 2009 (42% compared to 36%), and the same may well apply to Friday's chunk of the 3-day weekend total.  New Moon's Friday was just about 51% of its $142.8M weekend, so Breaking Dawn 1 might end up around $135M, which would make it the 5th or 6th highest opening weekend ever (Pirates of the Caribbean 2 is at $135.8M).


HAPPY FEET 2:  The original Happy Feet, somewhat unusually these days for an animated film, made more in the US than overseas ($198M vs $187M).  If that holds for the sequel, it'll be bad news for Warners, since Happy 2 is headed for an opening only half as big as its predecessor's.  Even worse, while the Thanksgiving weekend competition in 2006 only featured one weak family movie (Deck the Halls), this year Happy 2 has a tidal wave heading straight for it, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo all arriving on Wednesday.  That may well mean a less healthy multiple, and the possibility that the film could very unhappily fail to reach $100M in the US.

THE DESCENDANTS:  A strong but not overwhelming opening for  a presumed Oscar front-runner, with what should be around a $40K average in each of 26 theatres.  That's considerably less than Black Swan's $80K average at 18 last year, although it compares well with The King's Speech's $31K at 19.  But we'll know more about the boxoffice prospects of Descendants quickly, because it's expanding into 500+ theatres on Wednesday.

Holdovers:  Not a pretty picture.  IMMORTALS will dive by 60%, which is no surprise.  But awful word of mouth has quickly caught up with JACK AND JILL, which will drop from its weak opening by at least 50%.  It's unlikely to get past $75M, which will make it Adam Sandler's lowest-grossing comedy vehicle since Little Nicky in 2000 (which made less but also cost a lot less than J&J's $80M budget).  Audiences were similarly unimpressed with J. EDGAR, which is looking at a 50% drop for the weekend, worse than Hereafter had last year.  The picture seems unlikely to make more than $30-35M in total, meaning some respectful nominations but no real Oscar momentum. PUSS IN BOOTS took a big hit for the first time in its run, and should drop 50% this weekend.

Indies:  No big titles wanted to get in the way of The Descendants this weekend.  But LIKE CRAZY expanded to 108 theatres and should do a nice $5K in each.  And sadly, the excellent but difficult to watch TYRANNOSAUR (which is not about dinosaurs) failed to get the reviews it desperately needed, especially in the NY Times, and may not even manage $2K in each of its 5 theatres.

Next Weekend:  As noted above, an avalanche of family entertainment invades for the holiday, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo fighting it out.  Also, some major award hopefuls will make their appearances:  David Cronenberg's A DANGEROUS METHOD and Michelle Williams' awards express MY WEEK WITH MARILYN arrive on Wednesday (the latter in a semi-wide run of a few hundred theatres), while THE ARTIST opens on Friday. 

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THE BIJOU WEEKEND BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - November 13


IMMORTALS is claiming the same drop for Sunday as it had on Saturday, so that total may come down in actuals.  Even so, as long as the final amount is over $30M (which it certainly should be), that's a win for Relativity, no matter what the movie's budget actually was.  Immortals also launched widely overseas, including in such important territories as China, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, and should hit a solid $36M there.  


JACK AND JILL's $26M opening is the lowest for any Adam Sandler comedy vehicle since The Wedding Singer in 1998.  Sony seems to be counting on a multiple like the one that got Bedtime Stories over $100M in 2008, but this picture will likely be long out of theatres before the lucrative Christmas week bonanza kicks in, and J&J will be one of Sandler's lowest-grossing pictures ever.  Is that meaningful, or did audiences just sense what a stinker this one was?  We won't know until Sandler's next movie opens (I Hate You, Dad in June).

If you want to know what "older-skewing" means, look no further than J. EDGAR:  two-thirds of its audience was over 50 years old.  Although an $11.5M opening is nothing to cheer about, that audience is generally in no rush to get to theatres (it takes a while to maneuver those walkers), and Warners is hoping for a slow build that lasts through the end of the year.  Last year's Hereafter dipped 47% in its second weekend, and that was the end of it, as it only reached $33M in total--J. Edgar will need to hold better than that.

PUSS IN BOOTS had another great hold in its final weekend before kiddie movie competition arrives.  TOWER HEIST's 45% drop seals its fate as a money-loser, unless overseas audiences take to it in a big way.  A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS was, as expected, a one-weekend-and-out proposition, and despite the 3D ticket prices, it may not even get to the $38M grossed by the last picture in the series.  PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 went over $100M, and has a shot at exceeding $108M and becoming the highest-grossing of the franchise.

In limited release, ANONYMOUS plummeted, and is unlikely even to reach $5M on a $35M budget.  MARGIN CALL expanded a bit more to 199 theaters, and should have an average of around $3K.  It could get to $5M in theatrical alone (not counting VOD), which would be a triumph for a picture that cost $3.5M and has spent very little on marketing; in addition, distributor Roadside Attractions has decided to make a well-deserved awards run for the film, so it's all good.  

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost doubled its theatre count to 183 and saw little incremental income with a $2700 average.  LIKE CRAZY widened to 70 theatres at a promising $7500 average.  THE SKIN I LIVE IN increased to 91 theatres at a $3400 average.  TAKE SHELTER seems to have reached its limit (barring a strong showing by Michael Shannon in critics' awards) with a $1600 average at 82.  

The only notable indie opening was Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA (also on VOD and HDMovie Net), which did a very nice $14K in each of 19 theatres.  Werner Herzog's death-penalty documentary INTO THE ABYSS had a $4200 average at 12.  These will likely be dwarfed next week by the arrival of THE DESCENDANTS, which will open in 5 theatres on Wednesday and then go to 27 on Friday.

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 12


Whether or not IMMORTALS holds together at the boxoffice after its opening few days, the impressive launch is good news for Relativity, which is trying to prove it can survive as a standalone distributor of Hollywood-level movies.  That doesn't necessarily mean Immortals will hit profit (its financial picture is complicated by various distributors handling it around the world, and uncertainty about what the budget actually was), but it does mean Relativity can claim a #1 opening for a picture with no huge stars to promote.  (Also happy:  Warner Bros, which can now say that its new Superman has already been the star of a hit.)


The JACK AND JILL opening looks to be in line with Adam Sandler's last family outing, 2008's Bedtime Stories, which started with a $27M weekend.  However, that picture opened on Christmas Day and had the benefit of the giant boxoffice week that follows, resulting in a total that was 4x its first 3 days.  J&J probably won't have a trajectory anything like that, which will likely make this--amazingly enough--his first "non-serious" starring vehicle not to hit $100M since Little Nicky in 2000.  In fairness, it will be far more successful than that flop, although it does bear the burden of a $80M budget (which means total worldwide costs of probably $200M+ once marketing is added in).

J. EDGAR was always intended as a longterm play that would stay in theatres throughout the holiday/awards season.  Its opening looks to be in line with Hereafter's $12M, but that picture got no awards traction and petered out at $33M (although it made more than double that overseas).  J. Edgar should open better than either Invictus or Changeling, but neither of those got to $40M either (even with a Best Actress nomination for Angelina Jolie on the latter).  The movie's fate will rest on word of mouth and how it fares in early critics' awards.

The great news for DreamWorks Animation is that PUSS IN BOOTS was actually up from last Friday (thanks in part to the Veterans Day holiday), meaning another solid hold for the weekend.  The less-great news is that an avalanche of kids movies is about to fall, with Happy Feet 2 arriving Friday, followed less than a week later by The Muppets, Hugo and Arthur Christmas, making this the movie's last wide-open weekend.

TOWER HEIST isn't going to have a terrible drop (that's the advantage of an older-skewing audience), but seems unlikely to get much past $75M, which won't pay the bills once marketing costs are figured in.  The overseas openings to date haven't been promising either.  

We're still a couple of weeks away from the explosion of indie movies that will arrive for awards season, but Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, riding mostly excellent reviews, should do around $15K in each of 18 theatres (it's also available on VOD and aired last week on the HDMovie network).  LIKE CRAZY expanded to 70 theatres and should have a pretty good $8500 average.

Although as noted the family holiday season kicks off next weekend with HAPPY FEET 2 (the original opened with $41M in 2006), next week is all about THE TWILIGHT SAGA:  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, which should easily own every multiplex in the country as of 12:01AM Thursday night.  New Moon, the last chapter of the saga to open on a Friday, holds the 4th highest opening weekend of all time with a staggering $143M in its first 3 days (including $26M from Thursday midnight shows), so that's the number to beat.    

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THE BIJOU: Weekend Boxoffice Footnotes - November 6


The tiny 3% drop in PUSS IN BOOTS' second weekend is truly remarkable, and could well lead to studios adopting DreamWorks' strategy in the future of opening an animated movie on Halloween weekend and then having a de facto 2d opening the following week.  (However, the picture is still running $13M below Megamind's 10 day total.)


Despite all the money Universal spent to turn TOWER HEIST into an event, audiences just weren't buying.  The initial overseas numbers of $9.5M in 23 territories aren't terribly promising either.  Interestingly, exit polling showed the audience for the picture skewing rather old; this could be a byproduct of Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy's decisions to spend much of the past decade in family movies--they're now perceived as stars only by little kids (not the audience for this one) and their parents.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS, even with 3D ticket prices, couldn't match the opening of the series' second installment, and with an Adam Sandler movie opening next week, it's unlikely to get much beyond a $30M gross.  Warners would probably have been better off using it as counterprogramming during the real holiday season.

In the absence of compelling new openings, holdovers mostly did very well, although the only Fall opening (besides Puss) likely to get to $100M is PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3.

With the exception of ANONYMOUS (a dull $2500 in each of 513 theatres), most of the weekend's indie expansions were fairly successful.  MARGIN CALL, now in 178 theatres, should be close to $4500 in each, just slightly below its average last weekend.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE went to 98 theatres with about a $5K average, a notch above THE SKIN I LIVE IN, which is in 78 with about $4K in each.  TAKE SHELTER is in a holding pattern with an OK $2K or so in each of 91 theatres.  LIKE CRAZY is still in very limited distribution, but widened to 16 with about a $16K average.

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 5


TOWER HEIST hurts Universal on several levels.  It's a big-budget movie (with marketing costs included, the total is likely $200M) in a genre that doesn't necessarily travel well, and it was the studio's big year-end release.  And just to make things worse, next week its pair of Stiller and Murphy have to face off against Adam Sandler's Jack & Jill.  (Incidentally, the idea, floating online, that the movie's $25M opening shouldn't be considered soft because on this particular weekend of the year, other comedies not aimed at families haven't done better, is beyond inane--it seems to assume that moviegoers check the calendar before heading out to the multiplex, saying "Hey, I don't care what's opening--if it's the first weekend in November, I don't want to see any damn non-family comedy!  Everyone knows I only go to those in the second weekend in November or the third weekend in September!")   


PUSS IN BOOTS got the second weekend it needed, with a superb drop of only around 20%.  Not to be churlish, though, but while that's a far better hold than Megamind had last year (37% drop), it's still likely to make for a second weekend lower than Megamind's $29M, and a 10-day gross 20% lower than Megamind's $88M.  (Megamind wound up with $148M in the US.)  Next week Puss also has to contend with the Sandler movie, which is PG and being pitched to a family audience, and the following week a deluge of animated competition begins with Happy Feet 2.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS looks to be on par with the last picture in the series, Guantanamo Bay, which opened with $14.8M (although the Xmas number is boosted by 3D ticket prices).  It's doubtful that Warners expected much more, so presumably these economics work for them.

With little excitement generated by the new arrivals, holdovers again did very well:  other than the post-Halloween PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3, none of the Top 10 appear likely to decline more than 40% (not even THE RUM DIARY).  This developing pattern of strong holdover business may also suggest an aging of the theatrical movie audience, as older audiences have long been likely to wait a week or 2 before heading out to see films.

There weren't any major indie openings this weekend, but several expansions are worth noting.  ANONYMOUS (which isn't technically an "indie," but has the subject matter of one) doubled its theatre count to 513 but only increased its gross by 20%, meaning an anemic per-theatre number that may not reach $2500.  MARGIN CALL continued its quiet success, adding 38 theatres for a total of 178 and holding to a fine per-theatre number over $4K (it continues to be available as well on VOD)--the film now seems capable of reaching $5M or more at the boxoffice, which would make it a solid low-budget success.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost tripled its theatres to 98, and is finding an audience, with a per-theatre that should be at least $4500.  LIKE CRAZY took a smaller leap to 16 houses, and should be a very good $15K in each.

Next weekend is all Adam Sandler, in fact 2 of him, since as everyone now knows, he plays both himself and his twin sister in JACK & JILL. His last non-summer opening was $30M for Just Go With It, so that will presumably be a target number for the picture.  Sandler's competition will be limited to the R-rated 300 rip-off IMMORTALS and Clint Eastwood's very serious J. EDGAR, also an R. 

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THE BIJOU: Weekend Boxoffice Footnotes & Early International Numbers


DreamWorks Animation can blame the weather for diminishing its PUSS IN BOOTS number--although there seemed to be little effect on the weekend's other openings--but $34M is awfully low for a major animated release.  (And no one will be surprised to see the actual figure fall tomorrow by $400K or more, which is the margin by which it's claiming a Halloween weekend record.)  With only 2 more weeks until Happy Feet 2 arrives to take over the market, there's even the possibility that it won't get over $100M in the US. It's off to a good start overseas, though, with $17M in only 3 territories, mostly from Russia, enough to tie PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3's take from 48 territories.


Overseas, in fact, was where all the action was this weekend.  The most impressive boxoffice number this week was  Steven Spielberg's ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, which won't open in the US for almost 2 more months.  It had a splendid launch in 19 territories with $55M. (Those are major territories, so the estimate is that they come to over 50% of the film's international potential.)

Meanwhile, IN TIME was also more of a success story overseas ($14M from 35 territories) than in the US, where it only managed $12M.   THE RUM DIARY doesn't seem to have opened overseas yet, although it would take quite a bit to offset its dismal US performance.

Back in the US, PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3's weekend hold was unexceptional, but its opening was so huge that it's still running well ahead of the second chapter in the series.  MONEYBALL, THE IDES OF MARCH and DOLPHIN TALE all lost large chunks of their theatres, accounting for their largest weekend declines to date, while REAL STEEL was battered by the arrival of Puss In Boots into the family market. (Real Steel has gone over $100M overseas, only a moderate number these days.)

The notable limited opening was LIKE CRAZY, which ended up with $30K in each of 4 theatres (half of those theatres were in Manhattan, so the weather may have had an appreciable effect).  With a $3700 average at its 265 theatres, ANONYMOUS showed little promise for a wider release.  MARGIN CALL did well with its first round of expansion ($4500 in each of 140, plus VOD), and on a smaller scale, so did THE SKIN I LIVE IN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE ($5500 and $7K in 32 each).  TAKE SHELTER reached 91 theatres, with a so-so $2100 average.   

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: The Contenders (Part 3)



Today we wind up SHOWBUZZDAILY's introduction of this year's most promising Oscar contenders (see Part 1 here and Part 2 here, looking at those that could be called Also Eligible--they're hoping just to get in the race.


Also Eligible

SHAME (Fox Searchlight - Dec. 2)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  11/1
Bookie odds to win:  33/1

Good Bet: Nobody who's seen this very serious film about sexuality will forget it anytime soon.  Michael Fassbinder is art-house flavor of the month, Carey Mulligan is an awards magnet, and the NC-17 rating guarantees plenty of attention.

Bad Bet: A difficult, polarizing piece of work that may not be up the Academy's alley.

LIKE CRAZY (Paramount - Oct. 28)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  12/1
Bookie odds to win:  33/1

Good Bet: This year's Sundance darling.  One of the very rare films to tackle the ups and downs of romance believably.

Bad Bet:  Sundance was a looooong time ago.  A lot of people hate the ending.  Perhaps because it doesn't have subtitles, some critics consider it insubstantial.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  14/1
Bookie odds to win:  25/1

Good Bet:  General acclaim for Michelle Williams as Monroe.  Harvey moved it from early November to super-competitive Thanksgiving weekend, so he's not lacking in confidence.

Bad Bet:  Feels like more of an acting category push than Best Picture.
 
THE IDES OF MARCH (Sony - Released Oct. 7)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 15/1
Bookie odds to win:  10/1

Good Bet:  A weighty subject, strong cast, and everyone loves Clooney.

Bad Bet:  The Descendants will get the bulk of the Clooney love.  The reviews were favorable but not raves.  Although its low budget should make it profitable, the picture doesn't seem to have ignited the zeitgeist.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict - Dec. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  17/1
Bookie odds to win:  off the board

Good Bet: Director Angelina Jolie guarantees huge press attention.  Subjects don't come more serious than sexual politics amid the carnage of Bosnia.

Bad Bet:  Buzz says a heavy, depressing sit with lots of script issues.  Shame may steal the season's sexuality thunder.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount/DreamWorks - Dec. 21)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  20/1
Bookie odds to win:  off the board

Good Bet:  Spielberg and Peter Jackson blazing new trails in fantasy and technology!  Initial reviews from overseas (where it opens 2 months earlier) are raves.

Bad Bet:  War Horse exists.  At least in the trailer, those damn motion capture humans still look creepy.

ANONYMOUS (Sony - Oct. 28)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  24/1
Bookie odds to win:  off the board

Good Bet:  Shakespeare In Love was very much the Academy's cup of tea.

Bad Bet:  This one lacks the romance, the humor and the charming lead performers.  Roland Emmerich as an Oscar nominee?

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th Century Fox - Dec. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  30/1
Bookie odds to win:  40/1

Good Bet:  A crowd-pleaser from Cameron Crowe that could put his career back on track.  Star performances from Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson and Thomas Haden Church.  Look, adorable animals!

Bad Bet: Buzz is that it's better than Marley & Me, but not by as much as you'd think.  You need to read the credits to realize it's a Crowe picture.

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) (Warner Bros - Released July 15)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  40/1
Bookie odds to win:  50/1

Good Bet:  The well-received final chapter of the most successful movie franchise in history.  The last Lord of the Rings bathed in Oscar glory.

Bad Bet:  The entire LOTR saga was directed by Peter Jackson, so it felt like a more unified artistic work.  Timing is no ally:  the LOTR films opened at Christmas, and their phenomenal success unfolded just as the Academy was making its choices; Hallows will be out on homevideo in a few weeks.  Warners has J. Edgar and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close on its Oscar plate.  The filmmakers will just have to be content with their billions.

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