Movie Box Review

REAL STEEL had a nice Saturday bump of 27%, but that's far lower than the 40% it was initially claiming (and only 4% higher than the one for Ides of March, which is decidedly not a family matinee movie).  The picture could benefit, though, from some additional matinee business on Columbus Day tomorrow.  Also helping out is the limited competition it'll face over the next couple of weeks, with Footloose aiming at a slightly older audience and Johnny English Reborn and The Three Musketeers not likely to be major boxoffice factors.  (That good luck runs out on October 28, when Puss in Boots opens.)  Still, the picture is unlikely to reach 9 figures in the US, which means its ultimate success will rest on overseas business.  The movie is rolling out gradually worldwide, and started with a good $22M this weekend in 19 territories, only 3 of which are major (Russia, Mexico and Australia).  

Even though they're in different genres, THE IDES OF MARCH will have competition next weekend from The Big Year for the older audience.  Since international markets aren't likely to be very interested in a story of US politics, the film will need to linger in domestic theatres for several weeks in order to hit a profit.

DOLPHIN TALE and MONEYBALL may end up in more or less the same place with their final US grosses (Moneyball making up midweek what it loses to Dolphin on the weekends), but Dolphin is in far better shape financially, as it cost about 25% less to produce (and probably also somewhat less to market), and has a brighter outlook internationally thanks to the overseas romance with 3D family movies. 

Cinemascoristas, please note:  the much-vaunted, "rarely-given" A+ rating that COURAGEOUS won bought it a thoroughly routine 50% drop in its second weekend, far less impressive than 50/50's and not even as good as the holds for the mostly-reviled DREAM HOUSE and WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER?  As of now, it doesn't appear the movie will even reach the $33M total that its faith-based stablemate Fireproof did last year.

In limited release, one has to give a little revolted credit to THE HUMAN CENTIPEDE, which managed $3K in each of 18 theatres playing only midnight shows.  That's better than DIRTY GIRL will average at 9 playing a full schedule.  THE WAY did an OK $4K in each of 33, as did THE WOMEN ON THE SIXTH FLOOR in each of 6.  It wasn't a good weekend for expansions, as MACHINE GUN PREACHER fell to a $1200 average in each of 93, WEEKEND to $4K in each of 14, and TAKE SHELTER to $5K in each of 11.  

The irony of the new DreamWorks/Disney is that thus far, their big "event" spectaculars have done only modest business--I Am Number Four opened with $19.5M and ended up with $55M domestically, and REAL STEEL might do about 25-30% better--while their "little" picture THE HELP has been a blockbuster, one of the most profitable films of the year.  Number Four did gross 60% more internationally than it did in the US, and the same may well be true with Real Steel--however, Steel cost at least double what Number Four did (DreamWorks claims $110M, about which we may be politely dubious), so that may not be enough.

THE IDES OF MARCH is quite low-budget by big-studio standards, with a reported cost of just $12.5M (but considerably higher marketing expenses).  No one expected it to open big, so the question is whether it will last long enough in theatres to recoup its cost.  The downside for the film is that the subject of American politics is unlikely to travel well, so foreign business may be comparatively minimal.  Ides also confirms what we learned a few weeks ago with Drive:  Ryan Gosling is a superb and rising actor, but his name alone doesn't sell tickets.

It's now clear that MONEYBALL won't get close to The Social Network's $97M gross--Moneyball started out lower, and although its weekend holds are fine, they're not nearly as impressive as Network's (which didn't dip more than 33% until its 7th week in release).  Like Ides, Moneyball's subject matter makes it a problematic release overseas; however, its production cost is 4x that of Ides.  The big-picture risk for the movie is that it will be out of theatres when serious awards talk begins in a month or so, and absence may not make critics' hearts grow fonder.

DOLPHIN TALE continues to run fairly parallel (although about 35% ahead) to last year's Legend of the Guardians--and at a much lower budget--so that's a nice seasonal win for Warners.  Now that THE LION KING has actually hit blu-ray, its theatrical business collapsed, but that's still going to be close to $100M in mostly surprise dollars for Disney.

50/50 had a very nice hold, and with its small production cost and relatively low-key ad campaign, it should do OK for Summit.  (As that studio counts the days down to November 17, when the new Twilight opens and they go back to printing money.)  DREAM HOUSE, WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? and ABDUCTION will all fall close to the expected 50%.  It's worth noting, though, that COURAGEOUS, which caused some excitement last week with its big opening day, has turned out to be much more front-loaded than last year's faith-based Fireproof, and will fall at least 50% this weekend, compared to the 40% 2d weekend drop for Fireproof.  (Although with a $2M production cost, the movie will still be very profitable.)

Nothing to get excited about in limited release.  MACHINE GUN PREACHER continues to expand badly, and is headed for little more than $1K per theatre in 93.  THE WAY has a deal with AMC Theaters for exclusive distribution, and is looking at an OK $3500 in each of 33.  THE WOMEN ON THE SIXTH FLOOR should do similarly at only 6, while THE HUMAN CENTIPEDE 2 may ride its "You'll vomit from the disgustingness!" hype to $6K in each of 9.  DIRTY GIRL wasn't able to get any traction, with about $2500 in each of 9.

Deadline has some preliminary numbers for Friday's boxoffice, and as expected, REAL STEEL is headed for a weekend victory.  Assuming that it gets the Saturday bump that usually goes to pictures targeted at family audiences, Steel should reach around $26-27M for the weekend, in line with Mitch Metcalf's predictions.  That number will still leave it far from the $225M or so it'll need in studio revenues to break even on its production and marketing investment.  

THE IDES OF MARCH should also hit the $12-13M level of weekend expectations. Ides is a far lower-budgeted film than Steel (about 10% of the production cost), and if it can hang around in the market for a while, it could turn a decent profit.

Among holdovers, DOLPHIN TALE and MONEYBALL appear to be falling a bit more steeply than expected now that each faces direct competition in the marketplace, while COURAGEOUS is taking the big hit that a front-loaded picture will encounter in its second weekend.  50/50, on the other hand, seems headed for a very good hold, suggesting strong word of mouth.  DREAM HOUSE and WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? are moving swiftly toward their appointments with homevideo.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for the top three films were high, with the projections for Dolphin Tale, Moneyball and The Lion King in 3D each about half a million dollars too optimistic.  Courageous and 50/50 were estimated to be running neck and neck Sunday, but Courageous actually came in ahead when the actual numbers were tallied Monday morning.  However, we expect 50/50 to play longer than Courageous (see estimated final domestic grosses above).       

 

Sony is taking an interesting strategy this fall:  with MONEYBALL in release, THE IDES OF MARCH opening on Friday and ANONYMOUS coming on October 28, they're cornering the market on upscale, wide-release drama until Warner Bros opens J. EDGAR on November 11.  (On that date, Sony will go as downscale as is humanly possible with the Adam Sandler drag-fest JACK & JILL.)  Depending on how one looks at it, they may be trying to give all three films a chance to own the "serious film" market before the holiday--and award--season deluge, or they could be clearing their decks for their real push, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO in December.

Among the weekend's new openings, COURAGEOUS is predicting by far the smallest Sunday drop (23%, compared to 35-48% for the others), which is presumably because they're expecting major business from church groups.  We'll find out tomorrow how that plays out.  

DOLPHIN TALE's hope for an uninterrupted long run were nipped this week by DreamWorks Animation's decision to move PUSS IN BOOTS up a week to October 28 (which still leaves it 3 weeks to collect the bulk of its revenues).  

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Dolphin Tale (in its second week) moves into the #1 spot.  Look out for a boatload of TV commercials trumpeting this feat to keep the momentum going.  Not far behind is Moneyball, also in its second week, with a slightly higher weekend drop but better prospects midweek when the grownups take over the nation's theaters.  50/50 and Courageous are the best of the new openers, with each almost hitting a very mediocre $9 million opening (although Courageous did it at about one-third the theaters as 50/50 did).  Box office volume in total is about 6% above the same weekend last year.      

Deadline has some early updated weekend numbers, and there are no major surprises from the Friday results.  The top 3 are DOLPHIN TALE, MONEYBALL and THE LION KING with $14M, $12M and $11M respectively, with the family pictures garnering the benefit of stepped-up Saturday matinee business.  

After that, 3 new titles--50/50, COURAGEOUS and DREAM HOUSE--are bunched together between $8.7-9M, meaning their actual rank won't be clear until Monday's actuals are annonced.  Courageous was the most front-loaded with Friday business, which is no surprise given the nature of its appeal, nor is the fact that 50/50 had strong word of mouth on its second day; what's odd is that Dream House seems to have also done well on Saturday, despite how bad it is.

In the third echelon, holdovers ABDUCTION, CONTAGION and KILLER ELITE, as well as the new WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? are all between $4.8-5.7M, representing indifferent holds for Abduction and Killer Elite, nice continued business for Contagion, and a wretched start for the Anna Faris vehicle.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for more detailed numbers and analysis as additional boxoffice figures become available.

THE SOCIAL NETWORK fell only 31% in its second weekend, so MONEYBALL, which is headed for a fall closer to 40% (after a lower opening), continues not to be in Network's league financially.  The timing of a movie like this is tricky, because if it's out of theatres when the awards discussions start to become serious, it can lose momentum, and that's the danger for Moneyball.  (It will also face direct competition--from Sony, its own studio--next week from THE IDES OF MARCH.)

Summit spent a lot of time and effort trying to get people into 50/50 (Seth Rogen, who's a producer as well as star of the film, seemed to be interviewed everywhere), and with good reason, because it's an excellent movie.  Audiences who showed up seem to get it--to the extent Cinemascore means anything, 50/50 received an A- grade--but selling a comedy about cancer is just a tough nut to crack.  

DOLPHIN TALE is benefitting from the fact that it's actually a pretty decent family movie, but it faces competition next weekend from Real Steel (although Dolphin is by far the better picture).  To no one's surprise, Disney held LION KING in theatres even though the blu-ray is being released on Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether all these boxoffice dollars will help or hurt the video sales.

COURAGEOUS proves once again that the church audience is eager to be roused by movie marketing, and while the movie is unlikely to get any kind of crossover attention, it'll be quite profitable due to its limited budget and marketing costs.  (The movie's "A+" from Cinemascore is fairly meaningless, since the people they polled are exactly the people most likely to adore it.)

On the "disaster" side of the ledger, the producers of DREAM HOUSE took the movie away from its director Jim Sheridan, and that led to Sheridan and stars Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and Naomi Watts largely refusing to do any publicity for the film--which led to Universal not screening it for critics.  The result is a fairly expensive movie (which is indeed lousy, at least in its non-director's-cut form) that's looking at red ink.  Also, the discussion on whether Anna Faris is a "star" can end--she's not.  I liked WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? far more than most (at the very least, it doesn't compare badly to most of Katherine Heigl's output), but no one out there is buying a ticket to see Faris, no matter how talented she is.

In limited release, TAKE SHELTER is headed for a heartening $17.5K at each of 3 theatres, but it's a troubling movie that is likely to have a hard time attracting a mainstream audience.  Fans of car wrecks showed up for MARGARET to the tune of around $3500 in each of 2--that's the movie that sat on the shelf for 6 years while its director and producers fought about the editing.  And MACHINE GUN PREACHER expanded from 4 theatres to 33; without the cushion of Q&As with the stars, its per-theatre gross dropped sharply to around $3K. 

Next weekend brings one movie looking for a massive audience (REAL STEEL) and one that would be satisfied with more modest returns and some awards attention (THE IDES OF MARCH).  An early word of advice:  go with the humans.

Deadline has updated early Friday numbers, and it's looking like another too-close-to-call weekend:  all the movies in the Top 5--MONEYBALL, THE LION KING, DOLPHIN TALE, COURAGEOUS and 50/50--have Friday grosses between $3.2-3.8M.  Courageous is probably the most front-loaded, due to its focused church-based audience (although it's per-theatre number will be very impressive), and while 50/50 should have good word of mouth and a higher multiple, it's still unlikely to have the Saturday bump of the holdovers.  Dolphin Tale is considered to have the best chance to narrowly take the weekend, as it seems to be heading for only a 30% Week 2 decline, better than Moneyball's (which itself should only go down around 40%, an excellent hold).  But it could still work out otherwise.  

DREAM HOUSE wasn't too far behind the leaders on Friday, but will probably have a terrible weekend multiple and end up with $7M or so for the weekend, while WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? appears to be a complete disaster, headed for not much more than $5M for the weekend.  Last weekend's also-rans ABDUCTION and KILLER ELITE should both see 50% drops.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

The Hollywood Reporter has some very office boxoffice numbers.  These are based on matinee business only, so they can be misleading as to what will happen over the course of Friday, let along the weekend.  But for now, the big news is that COURAGEOUS, a Christian-themed movie produced by Sherwood Baptist Church in Georgia and distributed by a division of Sony, is off to a fast start in only 1100 theatres, and could approach $10M for the weekend if it holds up.  However, films directed at the religious audience are often front-loaded with pre-buy church groups, so that's not necessarily where the weekend will go.

Even if Courageous does get that high, it probably won't be enough to get close to the weekend title, with LION KING, MONEYBALL and DOLPHIN TALE all expected to hold well with $12-14M each.  It would, however, put the movie in the thick of the new openings that are in many more theatres, with DREAM HOUSE also expected to do around $10M despite (deservedly) dismal reviews, 50/50 probably a bit less than that, and WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? in the same neighborhood.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.