Movie Box Review

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Rise of the Planet of the Apes will dominate with a $54 million opening weekend, even stronger than estimated yesterday.  In contrast, looking even weaker than it did yesterday, The Change-Up is only able to generate a $13.5 million.  The weekend overall is now looking like it will be up 29% from this weekend last year.    

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Rise of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $155 million, while The Change-Up will be lucky to hit $35 million.  The Smurfs has been upgraded to $128 million, while Cowboys & Aliens is on pace for $101 million and Crazy, Stupid, Love is on track for $76 million.  Captain America: The First Avenger is locking in on $179 million, while Friends with Benefits is still on pace for $64 million.            


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Rise of the Planet of the Apes will average a very good $14,800 per theater at 3,648 theaters (for $54.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  The Change-Up opened with a below average $4,635 at 2,913 theaters (only $13.5 million for the R-rated comedy with the not-so-novel body switch premise).   

The second week decline for The Smurfs (-41%) and Cowboys & Aliens (-57%) are what we should expect from their respective genres.      



August 5-7, 2011                    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)     $54.0             $155
The Smurfs               (Sony)     $21.0   -41%      $128
Cowboys & Aliens          (Uni)     $15.7   -57%      $101
The Change-Up             (Uni)     $13.5             $ 35
Captain America           (Par)     $13.0   -49%      $179
Crazy, Stupid, Love        (WB)     $12.1   -37%      $ 76
Harry Potter 8             (WB)     $12.2   -45%      $367
Friends with Benefits    (Sony)     $ 4.7   -49%      $ 64
Horrible Bosses            (WB)     $ 4.6   -36%      $122
Transformers 3         (Par/DW)     $ 3.0   -50%      $359

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $158 million total, up 29% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Other Guys and Step Up 3-D opened.  


 Top 12 Films: Weekend #31

     Volume     (millions)
2011  $158  (+25% vs 2007-10 average; +29% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $126  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $123  The Other Guys $35, Step Up 3-D $16    
2009  $132  GI Joe:Rise Cobra $55, Julie & Julia $20
2008  $111  Pineapple Express $23, Sisterhood Trav. Pants $11
2007  $140  Rush Hour 3 $49, Stardust $9

To see the original Weekend Predictions click here.  International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

THE SMURFS has outgrossed COWBOYS & ALIENS both Monday and Tuesday and now leads total box office to date, a lead it will not give up when both films leave theaters in several weeks. 



Through Tuesday, The Smurfs cumulative total domestically is $46.3 million ($5.0 million Monday and $5.7 million Tuesday).  Cowboys & Aliens now totals $44.9 million ($4.3 million Monday and Tuesday).  Clearly, The Smurfs has the weekday advantage of available children to see the movie.  Normally a non-kid film like Cowboys would look to the second weekend to make up some ground, but the sci-fi aspect of the movie signals a steeper drop than Smurfs will experience.  History will long forget that Cowboys was #1 (by a hair) its opening weekend.  The only number that counts is total gross, and according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Forecast Smurfs is headed for $120+ million, while Cowboys will probably miss $100 million by a fair amount.

Look for Weekend Predictions tomorrow for Rise of the Planet of the Apes from Fox and The Change-Up from Universal. 

Holy Smurfs!  The Smurfs will exceed their estimate and Cowboys & Aliens is falling short of its prediction enough to put the two films on a course for a photo-finish at the end of the weekend.  Both films look like they will open around $36 million.  Crazy, Stupid, Love looks like $18.5 million, somewhat ahead of its forecast.  Overall, the weekend is up 26% versus the same weekend last year.   

The Smurfs should open way above forecast ($13.3 million Friday with an estimated $36 million opening weekend, compared to a $23 million prediction).  The Smurfs is on track for $122 million in North America.


Cowboys & Aliens is opening below forecast (over $13 million Friday for an expected $35.5 million this weekend versus a $41.5 million forecast).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.  Cowboys & Aliens is headed for $96 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate (a massive miss for all the studios involved -- see Box Office Footnotes for more on that later today). International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  And see Mitch Salem's review of Cowboys & Aliens.  

Crazy, Stupid, Love will exceed its forecast somewhat.  The PG13 comedy is expected to reach $18.5 million this weekend, above the $16 million prediction.  The film is headed for $70 million total in North America.  Read Mitch Salem's review of Crazy, Stupid, Love. 

Captain America should drop a disappointing 61% from its opening, and the film has been downgraded to $178 million.  Also in its second weekend, Friends with Benefits is looking like it will fall a more reasonable 46%.  Finally, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Transformers: Dark of the Moon now are on track for the identical Domestic Final, $362 million.     

July 29-31, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
The Smurfs (Sony)        [$23  ]    $36.0   $13.3     $122
Cowboys & Aliens (Uni)   [$41.5]    $35.5   $13.0     $ 96
Captain America (Par)    [$32  ]    $25.5   $ 7.9     $178-
Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$22  ]    $22.5   $ 6.6     $362
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$16  ]    $18.5   $ 6.6     $ 70
Friends w/ Benefits Sony [$10  ]    $10.0   $ 3.2     $ 66 
Horrible Bosses (WB)     [$ 7.5]    $ 7.2   $ 2.2     $120
Transformers 3  (Par/DW) [$ 6.5]    $ 6.0   $ 1.7     $362
Zookeeper (Sony)         [$ 5.5]    $ 4.2   $ 1.4     $ 82
Cars 2 (Dis)             [$ 3  ]    $ 2.4   $ 0.7     $188
Winnie the Pooh (Dis)    [$ 3  ]    $ 1.8   $ 0.5     $ 32


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

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