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Showing posts with label friends with benefits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label friends with benefits. Show all posts

THE BIJOU: Early International Boxoffice



The Hollywood Reporter has some quick overseas numbers, and THE SMURFS continues to feed the seemingly endless international appetite for 3D family movies.  Smurfs has reached an unbelievable $364M overseas, for a worldwide total of half a billion dollars.

RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES also has a very handsome $250M internationally, but it's a lesser increment over its $174M domestic gross.  Predictably, that's even more true of CAPTAIN AMERICA, whose $186M overseas is just barely over its $174M in the US.  And COWBOYS AND ALIENS, which is close to eking out $100M domestically, has only $66M to its name overseas.  (In terms of major territories, both Captain and Cowboys have yet to play Japan, and Cowboys hasn't hit Russia yet either.)


On a far smaller scale, FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS, in a genre that doesn't always hit internationally, has impressively equalled its $55M US gross.  In comparison, CRAZY STUPID LOVE is only at $35M overseas, despite US boxoffice over $80M.

The FINAL DESTINATION franchise has been surviving (unlike its stars) on its overseas business, and the fifth installment is no exception, with around $105M that more than doubles its $42M domestic result.

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FRIDAY JULY 29 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

Holy Smurfs!  The Smurfs will exceed their estimate and Cowboys & Aliens is falling short of its prediction enough to put the two films on a course for a photo-finish at the end of the weekend.  Both films look like they will open around $36 million.  Crazy, Stupid, Love looks like $18.5 million, somewhat ahead of its forecast.  Overall, the weekend is up 26% versus the same weekend last year.   

The Smurfs should open way above forecast ($13.3 million Friday with an estimated $36 million opening weekend, compared to a $23 million prediction).  The Smurfs is on track for $122 million in North America.


Cowboys & Aliens is opening below forecast (over $13 million Friday for an expected $35.5 million this weekend versus a $41.5 million forecast).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week's Weekend Predictions.  Cowboys & Aliens is headed for $96 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate (a massive miss for all the studios involved -- see Box Office Footnotes for more on that later today). International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  And see Mitch Salem's review of Cowboys & Aliens.  

Crazy, Stupid, Love will exceed its forecast somewhat.  The PG13 comedy is expected to reach $18.5 million this weekend, above the $16 million prediction.  The film is headed for $70 million total in North America.  Read Mitch Salem's review of Crazy, Stupid, Love. 

Captain America should drop a disappointing 61% from its opening, and the film has been downgraded to $178 million.  Also in its second weekend, Friends with Benefits is looking like it will fall a more reasonable 46%.  Finally, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Transformers: Dark of the Moon now are on track for the identical Domestic Final, $362 million.     

July 29-31, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*

The Smurfs (Sony)        [$23  ]    $36.0   $13.3     $122
Cowboys & Aliens (Uni)   [$41.5]    $35.5   $13.0     $ 96

Captain America (Par)    [$32  ]    $25.5   $ 7.9     $178-

Harry Potter 8  (WB)     [$22  ]    $22.5   $ 6.6     $362
Crazy, Stupid, Love (WB) [$16  ]    $18.5   $ 6.6     $ 70

Friends w/ Benefits Sony [$10  ]    $10.0   $ 3.2     $ 66 
Horrible Bosses (WB)     [$ 7.5]    $ 7.2   $ 2.2     $120
Transformers 3  (Par/DW) [$ 6.5]    $ 6.0   $ 1.7     $362
Zookeeper (Sony)         [$ 5.5]    $ 4.2   $ 1.4     $ 82

Cars 2 (Dis)             [$ 3  ]    $ 2.4   $ 0.7     $188
Winnie the Pooh (Dis)    [$ 3  ]    $ 1.8   $ 0.5     $ 32



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases 


Some solid openings at the art house:  The Devil's Double (drama from Lionsgate) should average $22,100 this weekend at five locations, Attack the Block (sci-fi comedy from Sony/Screen Gems) should average $18,900 at eight locations, and The Guard (from Sony Classics) should average $18,500 at four theaters.  On the other hand, Life in a Day (documentary from National Geographic Entertainment) should average a weak $4,600 for the weekend at 11 locations.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $171 million total, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year when Dinner for Schmucks, Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore and Charlie St. Cloud opened.  


 Top 12 Films: Weekend #30

     Volume
     (millions)
2011  $171  (
+22% vs 2007-10 average;
+26% vs 2010) 

2007-10


Avg   $140  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $136  Dinner for Schmucks $23, Cats & Dogs Revenge $12    

2009  $114  Funny People $23, Aliens in Attic $8

2008  $145  Mummy: Dragon Emperor $40, Swing Vote $8
2007  $165  
Bourne Ultimatum $69, Underdog $12


Next Weekend


Opening next week are Rise of the Planet of the Apes from Fox and The Change-Up from Universal.  Those movies will be compared to The Other Guys ($35.5 million opening weekend) and Step Up 3-D ($16 million), making next weekend a possible up weekend versus 2010. 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
 

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JULY 29-31

An eclectic trio of films open wide this weekend.  Cowboys & Aliens (the ultimate genre mash-up) should win the weekend with $41.5 million.  Captain America should drop to second place, while The Smurfs should battle with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 for third place.  Crazy, Stupid, Love should open quietly in fifth place.  All in all, the weekend should be up around 25% versus the same weekend last year (a rather squalid affair with Dinner for Schmucks, Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore and Charlie St. Cloud opening).   


Opening at more than 3,700 theaters, Cowboys & Aliens should average a solid $11,200 per theater (for $41.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  Critical reception so far has been somewhat neagtive, 43% positive at RottenTomatoes.  Read Mitch Salem's review of Cowboys & Aliens. 



At about 3,200 theaters, The Smurfs should average an above par $7,100 (for $23 million this weekend).  Based on the 1980s Saturday morning cartoon, the movie has been panned so far, 9% positive at RottenTomatoes (although the review sample size at this point is low).

And opening at approximately 2,900 locations, Crazy, Stupid, Love should average a very mediocre $5,600 (for $16 million).  Critics have been endorsing this comedy (71% positive reviews), suggesting the film could hold up fairly well in the coming weeks despite a slow start.  Be sure to read Mitch Salem's review of Crazy, Stupid, Love. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
July 29-31                       Positive   Weekend   Total*

Cowboys & Aliens        Uni  PG13   43%      $ 41.5    $111
The Smurfs             Sony  PG      9%      $ 23      $ 80
Crazy, Stupid, Love.     WB  PG13   71%      $ 16      $ 64

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Captain America should drop a fairly moderate 51% in its second weekend, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 should decline 53%, which looks like a Titanic-esque hold given the 72% collapse we saw for Harry in weekend two.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
July 29-31                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Captain America        Par        -51%      $32       $191
Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -53%      $22       $367--
Friends with Benefits Sony        -46%      $10       $ 70
Horrible Bosses         WB        -36%      $ 7.5     $120+
Transformers 3      Par/DW        -47%      $ 6.5     $372 
Zookeeper             Sony
        -37%      $ 5.5     $ 83+
Winnie the Pooh        Dis        -38%      $ 3       $ 34
Cars 2                 Dis
        -42%      $ 3       $192


Box Office Volume


For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $140 million total, ranking 18th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $136 million, and the year before was $114 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $173 million, up more than 25% from this weekend last year.   



This Weekend Last Two Years


7.30.10

 Dinner for Schmucks PAR/ DW PG13 Steve Carell Paul Rudd  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22  Actual: $24
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $74  Actual: $73
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $13

 Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore WB PG Christina Applegate Neil Patrick Harris  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $41  Actual: $43
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $69

 Charlie St. Cloud UNI PG13 Zac Effron Kim Bassinger  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33  Actual: $31
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $15

7.31.09

 Funny People UNI R Seth Rogen Adam Sandler  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $35  Actual: $23
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $62  Actual: $52
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $20

 Aliens in the Attic FOX PG    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $25  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $31

 The Collector FREE R    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $7  Actual: $8
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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Box Office Results Footnotes - July 24


With the superpowers wielded only by Hollywood studio estimators, CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER has leaped ahead of Thor to claim the biggest superhero opening of the year.  But Captain America and HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) are the only pictures in the Top 10 predicting a Sunday drop of less than 20%, so we'll see tomorrow if those numbers hold up.  (By way of comparison, Thor fell 28% on its first Sunday.) 


TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON has hit $882M worldwide, which makes it the most globally successful of the series (even though domestically it won't come close to the Transformers 2 gross--despite 3D ticket prices).  The film just opened in China, where authorities still ration out US films, and had a giant $40M weekend, and it doesn't open in Japan until next weekend, so it should join the global $1 Billion club.  (Harry Potter will be permitted its China opening in early August.)

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS will be the only R-rated summer comedy so far this season not to reach $100M, although for a moderately budgeted film it will still do well enough.  Reports are that it's been skewing female and slightly older than expected (the audience is mostly 25+), which would suggest a leggy run... if Crazy Stupid Love weren't opening on Friday.

On the indie front, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continues to astonish:  after a 10 week run, and losing 12% of its theatres, it went up this weekend.  The runner-up indies of the season, TREE OF LIFE and BEGINNERS, continued to be rock solid, with Tree down only 10% from last week and Beginners basically dead-even (although Tree's $11M gross is still just a slice of its $30M cost, while Beginners $4.6M is already over its $3.2M production budget).  On an even smaller scale, the miniscule, marvelous THE TRIP (basically 2 funny English guys driving through the countryside and haranguing each other) has grossed $1.2M, a very good number for such a tiny picture, while the documentary BUCK has already reached $2.6M (both these movies are from IFC).  The Weinstein Company's SARAH'S KEY had a good opening of $23K per theatre at 5, while Fox Searchlight's less mainstream ANOTHER EARTH was right behind with $20K at 4.

Somewhat surprisingly, the first trade reviews for COWBOYS & ALIENS are very solid, so its reportedly weak tracking may improve through the week.  The terrific CRAZY STUPID LOVE should also benefit from good reviews (its early Rotten Tomatoes number is 83%).

Be sure to look for Mitch Metcalf's Actual Boxoffice and International analysis as soon as numbers are available. 

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice With Benefits

Deadline has rough estimates for the weekend boxoffice, and they're pretty much in keeping with Friday's numbers.  The biggest surprise, if the number holds, would be that Paramount is estimating CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER at $65.5M, slightly below its own Thor debut of $65.7M.  The explanation may be that Saturday's number is looking like $1.3M below Thor's, which makes even the $65.5M total a stretch, needing a better Sunday than Thor had.

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) is headed for a 71% plummet from last week.  Unexpectedly, this could mean that the race between Harry Potter and Transformers for #1 picture of the summer could end up being neck-and-neck, with Transformers headed for $350M+ and Harry not much more than that.  (For those following the Metcalf vs. Salem Summer Draft Showdown, this also means a closer finish than Team Salem was expecting, especially since Metcalf has both Cowboys and Aliens and Crazy Stupid Love next week, leaving me with the cold comfort of The Smurfs.)  

The FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS opening is a little soft, heading for $18.7M (lower than its precursor No Strings Attached and all the summer's R-rated comedies).  Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis, it seems, are still knocking at the door to A-list movie stardom.

Look for Mitch Metcalf's full analysis of the official studio estimates later this morning, and international grosses as soon as they're released.

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Box Office Footnotes - July 23


Unlike nearly all the other action epics this summer, CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER is rolling out slowly overseas, with only a couple of dozen territories getting the picture this weekend.  That will postpone a call on its ultimate boxoffice fate, because in this genre, international results are crucially important, contributing more than half of ultimate boxoffice--and because Captain America (retitled in 3 territories to remove any US stigma) could meet resistance in some areas.  Worth noting:  while the difference between its A- Cinemascore rating and Thor's B+ is meaningless, the fact that the Captain had about 50% more young viewers than the Norse god could suggest a more frontloaded boxoffice than Thor had.  For now, Captain America is, by a (not to be unduly suspicious of studio estimators) remarkably thin margin, the biggest superhero opener of the season. Also in its favor:  reports that next weekend's Cowboys and Aliens is tracking weakly (so expect the TV airwaves to be bombarded with last-minute promos for that one in the next few days).



A 73% drop for HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) wouldn't be historic--just in the Top 30 of all-time second weekend falls--but more subjectively, it would be the worst drop ever for a movie as well-reviewed and generally well-regarded as Hallows 2 is.  (The massively front-loaded Twilight series has never gone beyond a 70% second weekend fall.)  Any lingering fan hope of a Best Picture nomination probably went out the window yesterday.  Mitch Metcalf will tell us over the course of the weekend whether Harry's all-important foreign numbers are slipping as badly.

The FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS number is a bit disappointing, especially considering generally solid reviews. (Mine is here.)   It's a picture that would normally benefit from good word of mouth and some extended playing time, but with Crazy Stupid Love, The Change-Up and 30 Minutes or Less about to flood the comedy pipeline, that may be time Friends doesn't have.

Amazingly, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS lost 10% of its theatres this weekend and yet its Friday boxoffice number barely moved.  It could now realistically be on its way to a $50M US gross.  A BETTER LIFE expanded again, by 20%, but because its per-theatre number fell, its Friday boxoffice is down 35% from last week.  Similarly, Fox Searchlight's SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN (for which the only important credit is "Produced by Wendi Murdoch," AKA the wife who so zealously protected her billionaire hubby--and owner of Searchlight--from shaving cream last week)  more than doubled its theatres and saw its per-theatre number fall by almost half.  

The roughly $20K per theatre for ANOTHER EARTH is better news than the same number for SARAH'S KEY, since the latter is a slick international co-production based on a bestselling novel and Another Earth is a very low-budgeted indie. (And one well worth seeking out--my review is here.)  THE MYTH OF THE AMERICAN SLEEPOVER has been getting excellent reviews, but seems likely to do only about $12K in one NY house.

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THE BIJOU: Captain America: The First Boxoffice

The Hollywood Reporter has some rough early numbers for Friday's boxoffice, and the news looks good for CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Including Thursday midnight grosses of $4M, it seems to be around $25M for the day.  This would be right in the neighborhood of its Marvel-mate Thor, which had a $25.5M opening day and a $65.8M weekend, and ahead of X Men:  First Class and Green Lantern, which both opened with $21.4M.  

Second place belongs to HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2), headed for around $16M on Friday.  This would be well below the $20.8M of Deathly Hallows (Part 1)'s second Friday, and further demonstrates how frontloaded Hallows 2 is:  despite an insane 80% or more drop from its record-breaking opening day, it would nevertheless be $50M higher in total than Hallows 1 at this point in its run.  Hallows 2 should still easily be the highest grossing Harry Potter domestically, but a $400M total is starting to look like a stretch. 

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS is in third place with around $7M on opening day.  This would put it almost even with January's No Strings Attached and its $7.3M Friday (and $19,7M weekend), and below Bridesmaids ($7.8M/26.2M), Bad Teacher ($12.2M/31.6M) and Horrible Bosses ($9.9M/28.3M).  Friends also has instant competition coming with next weekend's Crazy Stupid Love.  

Read Mitch Metcalf's weekend predictions here, and watch for his detailed analysis of Friday's full numbers and the weekend grosses later this morning.

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Friends With Benefits" - Strings Attached



FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS - Worth A Ticket:  Almost Great

For about an hour, as you watch his new FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS, you could be forgiven for thinking that writer-director Will Gluck is the future of Hollywood romantic comedy.  Gluck came out of TV with the very underrated Fired Up, about a pair of college guys who dress up as female cheerleaders to get girls (I'm serious--watch it on video), and then he had his break-out with last year's terrific Easy A.  Friends With Benefits seems to be well on its way to building on this with an unusually smart, funny romance--until it isn't.


As everyone knows by now, Friends shares its premise with No Strings Attached, the very lame comedy that rode Natalie Portman's concurrent Black Swan stardom to a $71M gross ($148M worldwide) earlier this year.  In both, a couple that isn't romantically involved decides for the sake of convenience to get together for sex, with the idea that they'll be able to keep it separate from any emotional entanglement.  Of course, in both cases that's not the way it plays out.

The dreary thing--OK, one of the dreary things--about Strings was that it never really honored its own premise:  from the start, it was clear that Ashton Kutcher's character had a puppydog crush on Portman's, so the story became a matter of waiting for Portman to be willing to accept emotional commitment and open herself to Kutcher's love.  The script had to come up with psychological issues for Portman to triumph over, and there was hardly any fun to be had in the movie at all.  (Not to mention that it was almost stubbornly devoid of laughs.)

Friends With Benefits, in contrast, delivers on its initial idea.  Dylan (Justin Timberlake) is a magazine designer from LA headhunted for a NY job by Jamie (Mila Kunis).  He's new in town, they're both busy people who've recently been dumped, and they strike up a friendship--then decide that the sensible thing to do is add purely physical sex to the equation, since neither wants to be in a real relationship.  Of course, even while they're denouncing the cliches of romantic comedy (Kunis has a great bit attacking Katherine Heigl movies, and there's even a film-within-the-film that features Jason Segal and Rashida Jones), the two of them are falling for each other, and it doesn't take a prophet to figure out where it's going to end up.  What makes Friends work for quite a while is the very quirky, genial, appealing script by Gluck, Keith Merryman and David A. Newman, which has the kind of old-fashioned snappy banter that nowadays is rare outside of an Aaron Sorkin project. 

It also helps that Timberlake and Kunis actually seem to like each other, and they have real screen chemistry together; it's a relief to watch a big-screen romance where neither of the characters is an idiot, a doofus or a selfish creep with a heart of gold.  Timberlake's been kicking around with his film career for several years now, and he was excellent in The Social Network, but Friends is his first genuine leading man role, and he handles it like a veteran, smoothly hitting all the laughs and carrying off the more dramatic moments.  Kunis, too, has been on the brink of breaking out since she moved over from TV, and she makes a hugely appealing, sexy and often hilarious lead.  Gluck is a casting whiz, and like Easy A, Friends is also loaded with fabulous supporting actors:  Woody Harrelson, Andy Samberg, Richard Jenkins, Jenna Elfman, and Easy A's own Emma Stone and Patricia Clarkson all make appearances.  

So how does it all go wrong?  Gluck and his co-writers can't manage to stick the landing.  After being intelligent and witty and charming for more than an hour, easily convincing us that these two smart people would ultimately figure out that they're made for each other and fall into each other's arms, the script invents melodramatic and unnecessary plot turns to push them together, then break them up, and of course reunite them.  The last reel is cluttered with "call-backs" that repeat scenes and motifs from earlier in the movie in a grindingly obvious way.  Jenkins is forced to more or less replay his role from Dear John, as the movie recycles one of the lousiest recent movie cliches:  the Alzheimer's patient who manages to reach lucidity just long enough to impart some parental wisdom.  Timberlake and Kunis suddenly act in ways inconsistent with their behavior earlier in the movie, just to keep the plot's wheels turning.  By pandering to exactly the same rom-com conventions they ridiculed earlier, Gluck and his team drive their project straight into a wall.

It's sad to watch, because once you're on a movie's side, the last thing you want is to have the filmmakers wrench it away.  And even with its missteps, Friends With Benefits is still worth seeing, the first two-thirds are the most likable comedy of the summer.  It's jsut that when things get bogged down, you might want to consider checking out the next auditorium at the multiplex and watching the giant robots destroy Chicago; it's less painful than watching Friends With Benefits destroy itself.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JULY 22-24

Captain America and the final Harry Potter film's second weekend will battle for #1, with each around $60 million.  Friends with Benefits should open at a decent level for an R-rated comedy.  The weekend should be up well over 20% from this weekend last year when Salt and Ramona & Beezus opened (remember those?).   


Opening at more than 3,500 theaters, Captain America: The First Avenger should average a solid $16,500 per theater (for $58 million for Friday-Sunday).  Critical reception so far has been slightly positive, 60% positive at RottenTomatoes. Read Mitch Salem's review of Captain America here. 



At about 2,700 theaters, Friends with Benefits should average an above par $8,400 (for $22.5 million this weekend).  The R-rated comedy has also received slightly positive reviews, 58% positive at RottenTomatoes. See Mitch Salem's review here. 


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
July 22-24                       Positive   Weekend   Total*
Captain America         Par  PG13   60%       $ 58      $168
Friends with Benefits  Sony  R      58%       $ 22.5    $ 78

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will fight with Captain America to stay in the #1 position in its second weekend, down an estimated 63% from last Friday-Sunday.  Although Harry set the opening weekend record last week, remember the weekend number was incredibly front-loaded toward Friday.  Previous opening weekend record holders Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3 declined 53% and 61% in their second weekend, respectively.   


Horrible Bosses and Transformers: Dark of the Moon will fight for fourth place, each now headed for the $11 million level.        

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
July 22-24                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Transformers 3      Par/DW        -50%      $11       $373 

Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -63%      $63       $435
Horrible Bosses         WB        -38%      $11       $109
Zookeeper             Sony        -32%      $ 8.5     $ 71
Winnie the Pooh        Dis        -33%      $ 5.5     $ 32
Cars 2                 Dis
        -38%      $ 5       $188
Bad Teacher           Sony        -45%      $ 3       $102 
Larry Crowne           Uni        -51%      $ 1.5     $ 37


Box Office Volume


For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $161 million total, ranking 7th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $155 million, and the year before was $142 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $191 million, up more than 20% from this weekend last year.   



This Weekend Last Two Years

7.23.10

 Salt SONY PG13 Angelina Jolie Live Schreiber  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $38  Actual: $36
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $122  Actual: $118
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $175

 Ramona and Beezus FOX G Joey King Selena Gomez  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $29  Actual: $26
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

7.24.09

 G-Force DIS PG    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $26  Actual: $32
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $111  Actual: $119
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $167

 The Ugly Truth SONY R Katherine Heigl Gerard Butler  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23  Actual: $28
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $85  Actual: $89
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $116

 Orphan WB R Peter Sarsgaard Vera Farmiga  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13  Actual: $13
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $47  Actual: $42
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $35


Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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Box Office Footnotes - July 16 - Harry Potter Edition


Now that HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) has obliterated the single-day US boxoffice record, and is poised to have the all-time US weekend, what other records lie ahead?  The all-time Saturday is held by Spiderman 3, with $51.3M.  If Harry can stay under a 45% drop today, it'll surpass that one too.  The Sunday record belongs to The Dark Knight, with $43.6M--that one may be tougher, since Dark Knight dropped only 8% from Saturday to Sunday... but at this point, nothing can be ruled out. 


Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter has Harry's Friday overseas number at $75M, meaning that including its Wednesday and Thursday openings in some territories, it's already at $157.5M, with a global total through Friday of $250M.  It seems a good bet to take the all-time worldwide opening, a record currently held by its stablemate Half-Blood Prince with $394M. 

The real question, of course, is how front-loaded all this will be.  Despite that record opening, Half-Blood Prince made "only" $933M in the end, so 42% of its total boxoffice was earned in its first 3 days.  Deathly Hallows 2 seems likely to do better than that, with great word of mouth (its 97% Rotten Tomatoes rating--100% from "Top Critics"--make it the best-reviewed wide release of the year), but this story will play out over the coming weeks.  The good thing about a mid-July opening is that a strong title can play all the way through Labor Day with limited competition, something that's worked well for Warners with both Dark Knight and Inception.  

Meanwhile, if Warners is--by far--the happiest studio in town, the least happy is Paramount.  Not only did Harry badly dent Transformers 3 yesterday (it probably took the biggest hit in terms of losing prime multiplex placement and 3D theatres), but they have the next action movie up to the plate, Friday's CAPTAIN AMERICA.  Even if Harry goes down 60% next weekend--which it well might--the Captain will still be facing $60M+ in competition, and have a hard time getting the best auditoriums and sufficient 3D.  (The likable Friends With Benefits, also opening next week, won't be affected so much, since it's classic romantic comedy counterprogramming.)

There are, believe it or not, other movies playing this weekend.  Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS officially became the most successful film (not adjusted for inflation) of his 42-year US filmmaking career, with $40.4M earned and more to come.  In limited release, SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN will struggle to reach $5K per theatre in 24, with LIFE, ABOVE ALL and the dreadful SALVATION BLVD not even reaching half that much in only 5 houses each.  The Sarah Palin "documentary" UNDEFEATED, though, may reach $10K in each of 28 very carefully chosen theatres.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend as the Harry Potter juggernaut keeps rolling.

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