Movie Box Review

Updated Oscar odds confirm a complete snooze is in store for Sunday's Academy Awards as The Artist and director Michel Hazanavicius are heavy favorites to win Best Picture and Best Director, bringing a very French flavor -- and depressed ratings -- to ABC's telecast.  Oscar ratings rise and fall based on the suspense of the major races and especially when a movie is in contention that a mass audience has actually paid to see.  There is virtually no race in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories, although there might be some rooting interest in Best Actor (George Clooney vs Jean Dujardin) and Best Actress (Viola Davis vs Meryl Streep)

The Artist has moved from 1:6 odds in early February to 1:12 now, increasing its implied chances of winning from 72% to over 78%.  A similar trend is seen in the Best Director race (see the updated charts below by clicking "read more").




         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST PICTURE       Feb 20    Feb 8        

     The Artist           1:12     1:6    Even more the favorite
     The Descendants     10:1      6:1    Fading
     Hugo                20:1     14:1    Fading
     The Help            20:1     18:1    Slightly less likely
     War Horse           40:1     26:1    Fading fast
     Midnight in Paris   78:1     55:1    Falling out fast
     Moneyball           80:1     56:1    Falling out fast
     Extremely Loud &    88:1     59:1    Falling out fast
      Incredibly Close  
     The Tree of Life    88:1     73:1    Falling out fast

     BEST DIRECTOR
     Michel Hazanavicius  1:9      1:6    Improving odds
     Martin Scorcese      5:1      4:1    Hanging in there
     Alexander Payne     20:1     13:1    Fading
     Terrence Malick     40:1     37:1    Fading 
     Woody Allen         44:1     35:1    Fading fast

 

The Artist is also showing some late momentum in Best Actor with Jean Dujardin improving from 6:4 odds (about a 33% chance of winning) to 7:10 (about 49%).  George Clooney (in color and with full sound) has faded from 1:2 (about a 55% chance of winning) to 11:10 (about 40%).  This is the only category in which all of the long-shot nominees have a better shot of winning (even Demian Bichir from the $1.8 million grossing A Better Life has gone from 57:1 to 42:1).  

In Best Actress, Viola Davis from The Help is slightly more of a favorite, moving from 5:6 (46% chance) to 4:6 (about 51%).  But don't count out Iron Lady Meryl Streep, who is certainly practicing and perfecting her shocked look (remember the Golden Globes?), holding fairly steady -- 1:1 (42% chance) in early February to 11:10 (40%) now.  The other three nominees in the category have fallen out of the running according to oddsmakers.

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST ACTOR         Feb 20    Feb 8                     
     Jean Dujardin        7:10     6:4    Moving up to #1 
     George Clooney      11:10     1:2    Moving down to #2

Courtesy of the London oddsmakers (averaging a variety of books at easyodds.com), there appears to be little suspense ahead for the Best Picture and Best Director races at this year's Academy Awards and almost no races at all for Best Supporting Actor and Actress.  Currently, The Artist is heavily favored to win Best Picture, with much better than even odds of 1:6 (suggesting a probability of winning of over 80%).  The exact same odds are offered for the film's director, Michel Hazanavicius.  

The Descendants follows with odds of 6:1 (suggesting a winning probability of between 10 and 15%).  The other films in the race range from 14:1 for Hugo to a snowball's chance ratio of 73:1 for The Tree of Life.  In the Best Director race, Martin Scorcese has a slightly better chance of upsetting Hazanavicius, with 4:1 odds of winning (about a 20% chance of winning for Hugo -- if not for an unofficial lifetime achievement award).

The Actor and Actress categories are more interesting, with George Clooney (1:2) and Jean Dujardin (6:4) in a fairly close race for Best Actor.  Feeling lucky?  Go for Demian Bichir (for A Better Life) at 42:1.  In the Best Actress race, two actresses are near even money: Viola Davis from The Help (5:6) and Meryl Streep the Iron Lady (1:1).  

In contrast, the Academy might as well ship the Oscars to the Supporting winners, according to the oddsmakers.  Christopher Plummer (1:25) and Octavia Spencer (1:20) are so heavily favored the numbers suggest around a 95% chance of winning.

The writing categories actually have some contenders.  Best Original Screenplay has Midnight in Paris (2:5) favored, with The Artist (2:1) in the hunt.  Odds are pretty long (a million to one?) that Woody Allen would actually be at Hollywood and Highland to pick up his Oscar for writing Midnight -- so the telecast's running time would be shortened a few minutes.  The Best Adapted Screenplay has three (the most of any major category) writers with a legitimate shot:  The Descendants (2:5) is the favorite but Moneyball (4:1) and Hugo (5:1) are at least in striking distance.

Of course, the real oddsmaker we trust is our critic Mitch Salem (don't fill out an Oscar party ballot without him).  In an upcoming post, he will offer his perspective on these odds, and we will update these numbers as necessary as the Academy Awards nears.         



                     ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
                          as of February 8, 2012


     BEST PICTURE                    BEST DIRECTOR
     The Artist           1:6        Michel Hazanavicius 1:6
     The Descendants      6:1        Martin Scorcese     4:1
     Hugo                14:1        Alexander Payne    13:1
     The Help            18:1        Woody Allen        35:1
     War Horse           26:1        Terrence Malick    37:1
     Midnight in Paris   55:1
     Moneyball           56:1
     Extremely Loud &    59:1
      Incredibly Close  
     The Tree of Life    73:1

     BEST ACTOR                      BEST ACTRESS
     George Clooney       1:2        Viola Davis         5:6 
     Jean Dujardin        6:4        Meryl Streep        1:1
     Brad Pitt           18:1        Michelle Williams  14:1
     Gary Oldman         22:1        Glenn Close        40:1
     Demian Bichir       42:1        Rooney Mara        42:1

     BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR           BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
     Christopher Plummer  1:25       Octavia Spencer     1:20
     Kenneth Branagh      9:1        Berenice Bejo       9:1
     Max Von Sydow       18:1        Jessica Chastain   18:1
     Nick Nolte          32:1        Melissa McCarthy   32:1
     Jonah Hill          46:1        Janet McTeer       33:1


     BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY        BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
     Midnight in Paris    2:5        The Descendants     2:5
     The Artist           2:1        Moneyball           4:1
     A Separation        19:1        Hugo                5:1
     Margin Call         19:1        Tinker Tailor...   14:1
     Bridesmaids         23:1        Ides of March      22:1 

            source: average of odds posted at easyodds.com
                     Favorites and odds near even bolded 


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