Movie Box Review

Nine full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year's glacial pace, and the year-to-date total is now pacing a double-digit percentage increase over of the comparable period's average for the last several years.

The ninth weekend of the year should generate about $125 million for the top 12 films, a fairly typical weekend for the first weekend in March -- up 2% from last year's comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Universal should stand tall with a $44 million opening for The Lorax, while Project X should place second with a slightly above average $18.5 million opening.   



Opening at over 3,600 theaters, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax from Universal should average an excellent $12,300 per theater (for $44.0 million Friday-Sunday), which would be the best opening for a film since the weekend of November 18 when Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened with over $138 million in its first weekend.  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews from critics are in so far at RottenTomatoes, but the film is over 75% positive with the small sample size.  Marketing for the film has been strong and omnipresent (Universal is acting like a major studio this weekend, as opposed to its imitation of a mini-studio last week with Wanderlust opening with $6.5 million at a mere 2,002 theaters).  The studio has pulled out all the stops with dozens of advertiser tie-ins, brilliantly skewered by The Colbert Report (at minute 5:40).  The Lorax is on track for a preliminary $156 million domestically.            

Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Project X from Warner Brothers should average an okay $6,200 per theater ($18.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Also a limited sample size for this comedy produced by Todd Phillips (The Hangover), but the few reviews are trending slightly negative.  Project X is headed for a total domestic gross of $64 million. 


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 2-4                        Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Lorax                Uni  PG    n/a      $44.0     $156
Project X                WB   R     n/a      $18.5     $ 64


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Fairly typical declines are in store for most holdover films, with Act of Valor the lone returning film headed for over $10 million this weekend.  Best Picture The Artist doubles its theater count from 966 to about 2,000, but the per theater average should drop from about $3,000 to about $2,100 as the film moves into parts of the country that should be less receptive to the silent tribute to the early days of Hollywood.  Still, it should have a hefty 45% increase from last weekend's tally.  

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 2-4                       vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Act of Valor             Rel      -47%      $13.0     $ 68
Tyler Perry's Good Deeds LG       -51%      $ 7.5     $ 40
Journey 2                 WB      -47%      $ 7.2     $120 
Safe House               Uni      -41%      $ 6.5     $133
The Vow                 Sony      -48%      $ 5.2     $133
This Means War           Fox      -44%      $ 4.8     $ 51
Ghost Rider Spirit of V Sony      -49%      $ 4.6     $ 55
The Artist              Wein      +45%      $ 4.2     $ 45

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $125 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $121 million (paced by Johnny Depp voicing the Best Animated film Rango), and the same weekend in 2010 was $186 million (paced by Johnny Depp in the huge Alice in Wonderland).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $123 million, up a scant 2% from this weekend last year and down 1% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years

Tonight's Academy Awards telecast on ABC should be short on suspense as The Artist sweeps to victory in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  (See our Oscar Odds for more.)  While there is a race for Best Actor between Jean Dujardin (The Artist) and George Clooney (The Descendants) and for Best Actress between Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), none of the four films in the running in the major acting categories has a broad, mainstream following.  The Help has the widest appeal, but that is stretching it.

We are forecasting a 10.4 rating with Adults 18-49 for the Oscars telecast tonight from 8:30 pm to approximately midnight ET, falling below the current record low of 10.7 for 2008's ceremony, when No Country for Old Men beat Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood for Best Picture.  Also, there should be an average audience of 32.9 million viewers (ages 2 years or older) over the course of the show, not quite a record low.  2008 should keep that distinction (31.8 million), mainly because of population increases since then.  

The number to beat this year in the awards show world is the 14.1 rating with Adults 18-49 for The Grammys on February 12.  The real news would be if the Academy Awards even comes close to that mark.  


Note: The first numbers available Monday morning will be the fast national ratings, which measure the entire country but miscalculate the viewership Pacific and Mountain time zones (because the Oscars show, like live sports, is broadcast live to all time zones rather than the normal tape-delayed feed to the western United States).  The fast nationals for the Oscars could be as low as a 9.0 rating, awaiting a hefty adjustment upward when the western US ratings are re-processed.  Certainly, ABC has requested expedited official national ratings for the Oscars (which Nielsen will provide for an additional fee) to prevent especially low (and inaccurate) numbers from circulating in the press.


 

Updated Oscar odds confirm a complete snooze is in store for Sunday's Academy Awards as The Artist and director Michel Hazanavicius are heavy favorites to win Best Picture and Best Director, bringing a very French flavor -- and depressed ratings -- to ABC's telecast.  Oscar ratings rise and fall based on the suspense of the major races and especially when a movie is in contention that a mass audience has actually paid to see.  There is virtually no race in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories, although there might be some rooting interest in Best Actor (George Clooney vs Jean Dujardin) and Best Actress (Viola Davis vs Meryl Streep)

The Artist has moved from 1:6 odds in early February to 1:12 now, increasing its implied chances of winning from 72% to over 78%.  A similar trend is seen in the Best Director race (see the updated charts below by clicking "read more").




         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST PICTURE       Feb 20    Feb 8        

     The Artist           1:12     1:6    Even more the favorite
     The Descendants     10:1      6:1    Fading
     Hugo                20:1     14:1    Fading
     The Help            20:1     18:1    Slightly less likely
     War Horse           40:1     26:1    Fading fast
     Midnight in Paris   78:1     55:1    Falling out fast
     Moneyball           80:1     56:1    Falling out fast
     Extremely Loud &    88:1     59:1    Falling out fast
      Incredibly Close  
     The Tree of Life    88:1     73:1    Falling out fast

     BEST DIRECTOR
     Michel Hazanavicius  1:9      1:6    Improving odds
     Martin Scorcese      5:1      4:1    Hanging in there
     Alexander Payne     20:1     13:1    Fading
     Terrence Malick     40:1     37:1    Fading 
     Woody Allen         44:1     35:1    Fading fast

 

The Artist is also showing some late momentum in Best Actor with Jean Dujardin improving from 6:4 odds (about a 33% chance of winning) to 7:10 (about 49%).  George Clooney (in color and with full sound) has faded from 1:2 (about a 55% chance of winning) to 11:10 (about 40%).  This is the only category in which all of the long-shot nominees have a better shot of winning (even Demian Bichir from the $1.8 million grossing A Better Life has gone from 57:1 to 42:1).  

In Best Actress, Viola Davis from The Help is slightly more of a favorite, moving from 5:6 (46% chance) to 4:6 (about 51%).  But don't count out Iron Lady Meryl Streep, who is certainly practicing and perfecting her shocked look (remember the Golden Globes?), holding fairly steady -- 1:1 (42% chance) in early February to 11:10 (40%) now.  The other three nominees in the category have fallen out of the running according to oddsmakers.

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST ACTOR         Feb 20    Feb 8                     
     Jean Dujardin        7:10     6:4    Moving up to #1 
     George Clooney      11:10     1:2    Moving down to #2

The fourth weekend of the year should generate about $91 million for the top 12 films -- about the same as last year's comparable weekend and down 10% from a "normal" weekend this time of year.  The top film should be Liam Neeson in The Grey, at a very unspectacular $15 opening weekend number.           


Opening at over 3,000 theaters, The Grey from Open Road Films should average a mediocre $4,950 per theater (for $15 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics on RottenTomatoes are so far supportive: 78% 79% positive reviews.  The Grey is on track for a preliminary $50 million domestically.        

Opening in about 2,900 theaters, the thriller Man on a Ledge from Summit should average a weak $3,400 per theater ($10 million Friday-Sunday). Excoriated by critics so far (only 13% 17% positive reviews), Man on a Ledge is headed for a total domestic gross of $23 million.

In over 2,700 theaters, One for the Money from Lionsgate should average about $3,500 per theater ($9.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  No reviews yet -- the film has been hidden from critics.  But it is sure to be dumped on (hey, it's a Katherine Heigl film -- now with action thrown in with the light comedy!).  The film is also on track for a final tally of $23 million domestic.

Expanding to almost 1,000 theaters, The Artist should average only $3,700 per theater ($3.7 million Friday-Sunday, bringing its total to date to $17 million on Sunday).  Despite nearly universal raves (97% positive) and what seems to be an inevitable Best Picture Oscar, The Artist should have relatively limited commercial appeal.  As ShowBuzzDaily's Mitch Salem wrote back in September, "The Artist is a beautiful film hot-house flower, designed to flourish in the rarefied atmosphere of festivals and gatherings of cineastes. It's a curio that will be cherished by some, and probably ignored by most of the masses."  Total domestic gross should be around $39 million.   



                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
January 27-29                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Grey                 Open R     79%      $15.0     $ 50
Man on a Ledge           Sum  PG13  17%      $10.0     $ 23
One for the Money        LG   PG13  n/a      $ 9.5     $ 23
Expanding 
The Artist               Wein PG13  97%      $ 3.7     $ 39


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Among the returning films this weekend, Underworld Awakening and Red Tails are the only significant players.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
January 27-29                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Underworld Awakening     Sony     -55%      $11.5     $ 65 
Red Tails                Fox      -40%      $11.5     $ 52 
Extremely Loud & Incred. WB       -20%      $ 8.0     $ 31 
Contraband               Uni      -44%      $ 7.0     $ 75 
Beauty & Beast 3D        Dis      -42%      $ 5.0     $ 58 
Haywire                  Rel      -48%      $ 4.5     $ 26


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $102 million total, ranking 39th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $92 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $110 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $91 million, down 1% from this weekend last year but down a more significant 10% from "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years