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Showing posts with label woody allen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label woody allen. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY FORECAST: OSCARS 2012 - IT'S NEVER TOO SOON





Moving on...

As we all know, last night was the Rise Of the Planet Of the Black-and-White Silent French People.  For some of us, this was not good news.  But there's always next year!  Which means this year.  So let's see what's on the horizon for the 2012 Academy Awards:

Harvey Weinstein seems to control the Academy like Angela Lansbury (or, more appropriately, Meryl Streep in the remake) after telling The Manchurian Candidate to play a little solitaire, making him the appropriate place to start.  The Weinstein Company will no doubt acquire some more titles as the year goes by (the company bought THE ARTIST shortly before Cannes last year), but here's his slate for now:


DJANGO UNCHAINED (currently slated to open Christmas Day, although dates so far out are always subject to change):  The return of Mr. Quentin Tarantino, good-luck charm of WeinsteinCorp.  Tarantino's never won--those who think the snub of last year's THE SOCIAL NETWORK was something new should look up 1994, the year FORREST GUMP swept away PULP FICTION--so could this be his year?  It combines the incendiary American topics of race and violence in a story about an escaped slave who gets vengeance on his vicious master, which means that even with a fabulous cast that includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Jamie Foxx, Samuel L. Jackson, Christoph Waltz, Sacha Baron Cohen and Kurt Russell, Harvey has his work cut out for him.

Also potentially controversial--and the film least likely to get Tom Cruise's vote--is THE MASTER (currently unscheduled), the latest film from Paul Thomas Anderson, who's as brilliant as any filmmaker in the world today.  Anderson has danced with Oscar for THERE WILL BE BLOOD, but only Daniel Day-Lewis collected the gold.  Master is widely rumored to be a thinly-veiled saga about the rise of Scientology, with Philip Seymour Hoffman as the "L. Ron Hubbard" character, Joaquin Phoenix as his subordinate, and Amy Adams in the female lead.  In the universe of Hollywood, this subject matter is about as daring as it gets.

THE SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (November 21) seems on first glance to be more of a performance-award play, but who knows?  It's David O. Russell's follow-up to THE FIGHTER, about a teacher back in his real life after 4 years in a mental institution, and the stellar cast includes Bradley Cooper, Robert DeNiro, Jennifer Lawrence and past nominee Jacki Weaver.

The thriller COGAN'S TRADE (September 21) also seems on its face to be a less likely candidate.  However, it shouldn't be dismissed too quickly:  the film reunites Brad Pitt with his nothing-if-not-serious ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES director Andrew Dominik, and the opening date suggests the picture is aiming to premiere at one or more of the fall film festivals like Venice or Toronto.

There are, of course, other studios in the game besides Harvey Weinstein's, although few are as invested in the Oscar hunt.  Here are some of their likely candidates:

THE GREAT GATSBY (Warners - Christmas Day):  When they talk about "Oscar bait," this is what they mean.  Baz Luhrmann's adaptation of the classic stars Leonardo DiCaprio (again), Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire... and it's in 3D.

ARGO (Warners - September 14):  Another likely film festival premiere, from director Ben Affleck, whose THE TOWN had him on plenty of Oscar shortlists.  This one adds a political dimension, with a real-life story about an attempt to free Americans from Iran.

TWYLIGHT ZONES (Paramount - October 19):  David Chase?  You've heard of him?  Did a little show called The Sopranos?  His big-screen directing debut, which is also his first post-Sopranos piece of work, is an Oscar candidate by definition.

ANNA KARENINA (Focus - September 7):  Tolstoy may not quite be the level of big name as David Chase, but still.  An all-star group of filmmakers including director Joe Wright, screenwriter Tom Stoppard, and actors Keira Knightley, Jude Law, Kelly McDonald and Downton Abbey's beloved Michelle Dockery present that novel that was in Oprah's Book Club.

LES MISERABLES (Universal - December 7):  Thinking of big-time adaptations... KING'S SPEECH Oscar-winner Tom Hooper directs Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried, Sacha Baron Cohen, Helena Bonham Carter and similarly classy folk in the giant musical of the year.

BIN LADEN:  DEAD OR ALIVE (Sony - December 21):  Kathryn Bigelow's follow-up to THE HURT LOCKER is a thriller with a terrific ensemble cast that includes Jessica Chastain, Joel Edgerton, Kyle Chandler, Nina Arianda and Edgar Ramirez.

TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE (Warners - September 28): Clint, in another valedictory role, is always an Oscar possibilty.  He didn't direct this one, so maybe not a Best Picture favorite, but on paper his part as a baseball scout on the road for the last time could get him into the running for a long-awaited Best Actor nod.

NERO FIDDLED (Sony Classics - June 22):  Can Woody Allen double down on his MIDNIGHT IN PARIS bonanza with another foreign-set (Rome, this time) ensemble comedy?  Probably not, but no one saw Midnight coming, either.

THIS IS FORTY (Universal - December 21):  Another comedy auteur, this time Judd Apatow, with a lengthy comic-dramatic story about the sister and brother-in-law (Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann) of Katherine Heigl's character from KNOCKED UP.  No, don't look for Heigl to make an appearance (or, more surprisingly, Seth Rogen).

THE LIFE OF PI (20th - December 21):  It's taken a long time for Yann Martel's classy best-seller to get to the screen, but Ang Lee has finally done the job.

THE HOBBIT PART I  (Warners - December 14):  The last time Peter Jackson directed those little guys, it worked out pretty well.

And then there's THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (Warners - July 20).  The Academy has an ambivalent relationship with giant franchises (say goodbye, Harry Potter).  But Christopher Nolan's spectacles have formed the most critically-acclaimed franchise since, well, LORD OF THE RINGS, so...


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OSCAR ODDS for Major Categories -- UPDATED

Updated Oscar odds confirm a complete snooze is in store for Sunday's Academy Awards as The Artist and director Michel Hazanavicius are heavy favorites to win Best Picture and Best Director, bringing a very French flavor -- and depressed ratings -- to ABC's telecast.  Oscar ratings rise and fall based on the suspense of the major races and especially when a movie is in contention that a mass audience has actually paid to see.  There is virtually no race in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories, although there might be some rooting interest in Best Actor (George Clooney vs Jean Dujardin) and Best Actress (Viola Davis vs Meryl Streep)

The Artist has moved from 1:6 odds in early February to 1:12 now, increasing its implied chances of winning from 72% to over 78%.  A similar trend is seen in the Best Director race (see the updated charts below by clicking "read more").




         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST PICTURE       Feb 20    Feb 8        

     The Artist           1:12     1:6    Even more the favorite
     The Descendants     10:1      6:1    Fading
     Hugo                20:1     14:1    Fading
     The Help            20:1     18:1    Slightly less likely
     War Horse           40:1     26:1    Fading fast
     Midnight in Paris   78:1     55:1    Falling out fast
     Moneyball           80:1     56:1    Falling out fast
     Extremely Loud &    88:1     59:1    Falling out fast
      Incredibly Close  
     The Tree of Life    88:1     73:1    Falling out fast

     BEST DIRECTOR
     Michel Hazanavicius  1:9      1:6    Improving odds
     Martin Scorcese      5:1      4:1    Hanging in there
     Alexander Payne     20:1     13:1    Fading
     Terrence Malick     40:1     37:1    Fading 
     Woody Allen         44:1     35:1    Fading fast

 

The Artist is also showing some late momentum in Best Actor with Jean Dujardin improving from 6:4 odds (about a 33% chance of winning) to 7:10 (about 49%).  George Clooney (in color and with full sound) has faded from 1:2 (about a 55% chance of winning) to 11:10 (about 40%).  This is the only category in which all of the long-shot nominees have a better shot of winning (even Demian Bichir from the $1.8 million grossing A Better Life has gone from 57:1 to 42:1).  

In Best Actress, Viola Davis from The Help is slightly more of a favorite, moving from 5:6 (46% chance) to 4:6 (about 51%).  But don't count out Iron Lady Meryl Streep, who is certainly practicing and perfecting her shocked look (remember the Golden Globes?), holding fairly steady -- 1:1 (42% chance) in early February to 11:10 (40%) now.  The other three nominees in the category have fallen out of the running according to oddsmakers.

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST ACTOR         Feb 20    Feb 8                     
     Jean Dujardin        7:10     6:4    Moving up to #1 
     George Clooney      11:10     1:2    Moving down to #2

     Brad Pitt           18:1     25:1    Slightly improved
     Gary Oldman         22:1     29:1    Slightly improved
     Demian Bichir       42:1     57:1    Slightly improved

     BEST ACTRESS    
     Viola Davis          4:6      5:6    Improved odds
     Meryl Streep        11:10     1:1    Slightly worse
     Michelle Williams   19:1     14:1    Fading
     Glenn Close         62:1     40:1    Fading fast
     Rooney Mara         64:1     42:1    Fading fast

No significant changes in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories.  Congratulations, Mr. Plummer and Ms. Spencer.         

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     SUPPORTING ACTOR   Feb 20    Feb 8                     

     Christopher Plummer  1:50     1:25   More of a certainty 
     Kenneth Branagh     16:1     18:1    Moving up to distant #2
     Max Von Sydow       20:1      9:1    Fading
     Nick Nolte          39:1     32:1    Fading 
     Jonah Hill          61:1     46:1    Fading fast


     SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
     Octavia Spencer      1:25     1:20   Slightly stronger 
     Berenice Bejo        9:1      9:1    Steady 
     Jessica Chastain    23:1     18:1    Fading
     Melissa McCarthy    44:1     32:1    Fading fast
     Janet McTeer        49:1     33:1    Fading fast

Midnight in Paris remains the one to beat for Best Original Screenplay, edging up from 2:5 (about 60% chance of winning) to 2:7 (66%)  The Artist is still lurking as the most likely to upset Woody Allen, now 5:2 (24% chance) although that is down from 2:1 (28%) earlier in the month.  In Adapted Screenplay, The Descendants has improved from 2:5 (61%) to 1:5 (71% chance).  It seems only Moneyball stands in its way (adapting the wonderful, detailed Michael Lewis book into a character-driven film was quite an achievement), but the odds are now 5:1 (14% chance) from 4:1 (17%) earlier in the month.         

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Feb 20    Feb 8 
     Midnight in Paris    2:7      2:5    Slightly improved odds 
     The Artist           5:2      2:1    Slightly worse chance 
     Bridesmaids         28:1     23:1    Up from #5 to #3
     A Separation        30:1     19:1    Fading fast
     Margin Call         36:1     19:1    Fading fast


     ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
     The Descendants      1:5      2:5    Closing the sale 
     Moneyball            5:1      4:1    Relatively steady 
     Hugo                10:1      5:1    Fading
     Tinker Tailor       17:1     14:1    Fading
     Ides of March       38:1     22:1    Fading fast


On to Sunday.



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