Movie Box Review

You're frontloaded!  No, you're frontloaded!

OPENINGS:  The movie audience has 3 main components--men, women, kids--and a weekend that offers a strong title for each one has a good chance of being successful.  The relatively low-budget THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) got off to a great start (too bad it's not a great movie), with $15.4M on Friday.  That's higher than the entire opening weekend for Rachel McAdams' last soap The Notebook (which ended up grossing $81M) and higher than opening day for Channing Tatum's last dip in the soap pool Dear John (also an $80M grosser).  Meanwhile, for the guys there was the (more expensive) SAFE HOUSE (Universal), also very strong with a $13.8M Friday.  Safe House looks like it'll be the 2d highest opener of Denzel Washington's entire career (behind only American Gangster), and even though we won't know until tomorrow (or Monday) which picture edged out the other for the weekend crown, they're both big hits.

Meanwhile, the kids weren't neglected.  STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) scored $8.7M on Friday, and JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners) wasn't far behind with $6.6M.  The consensus seems to be that Phantom will be more frontloaded with fanboys, but again this won't be determined for another day or two.

HOLDOVERS:  Note:  because of Super Bowl Sunday, all weekend-to-weekend drops will be artificially low this week.  Thanks to that, CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) are both likely to be down under 50% this weekend, although BIG MIRACLE (Universal), which just couldn't find a reason to exist, may cross that mark.  Longer-running titles are dropping theatres due to all the new product in the market, so they're mostly down 50+%.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  With the rush of the nomination announcements done, these pictures are losing theatres, but otherwise holding fairly well.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost about 22% of its theatres and should be down around 30% for the weekend, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) also shed 20% of its theatres and should drop about an equal amount at the boxoffice, and HUGO (Paramount) actually had the best hold, ejected from 30% of its theatres but down only around 20%.  The exception is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which lost almost half its theatres but is looking an ugly weekend drop of over 60%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major arrivals this week.  RAMPART (Millenium), which was unable to get a Best Actor nomination for Woody Harrelson, is headed for a mild $12K average in 5 theatres.  IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics), nominated for Foreign Film, should average around $7500 in 3.  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein) tried an expansion to little avail, and may not even get to a $3500 average in 17.

Next weekend the studios aren't offering much for the long Presidents Day holiday:  THIS MEANS WAR (20th), which had to postpone its Valentine's Day opening because it would have been crushed by The Vow (it's also the target of one of the most brutal Hollywood Reporter reviews in recent memory), and GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Columbia/Sony) with Nicolas Cage, that eternal mark of high quality.  Also in a mid-level release is Disney's release of the Japanese (dubbed) animation THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY.  

A surprisingly strong start for 2 low-budget arrivals, although the upside is limited by tomorrow's Super Bowl.

OPENINGS:  CHRONICLE (20th) had a slight $350K edge over THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS Films) on Friday, and both are in frontloaded genres, appealing to young men and young women, respectively.  Young men are more likely to be otherwise occupied on Super Bowl Sunday, so Woman may have a small edge for the weekend, but both movies are success stories, with modest budgets (in the case of Woman, a modest acquisition cost) and minimal marketing by big-studio standards.  Chronicle will put director Josh Trank and screenwriter Max Landis (son of National Lampoon's Animal House/American Werewolf in London director John Landis) on the map; Woman proves that Daniel Radcliffe hasn't lost his place on that map, even without Ron and Hermoine.  The news was less good for Universal's BIG MIRACLE, a more costly production that didn't spark with audiences, and is unlikely to get anywhere near its $40M (not including marketing) budget.

HOLDOVERS:  Because of Super Sunday, THE GREY (Open Road) will probably fall around 50%, to $9-10M.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) will likely take a bigger hit, although with its female audience, it may be less affected by football--it doesn't matter much, though, since percentage points aside, the movie is a flop.  (Katherine Heigl's people were quick to announce 2 new projects for her this week, albeit notably wacky ones:  a thriller where she plays someone who can't distinguish people's faces, and thus doesn't know when a murderer is standing in front of her, and a detective story in which puppets are alive and co-exist with humans, and a puppet murder has to be solved.  Uhhh... okay.)  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) actually had the best Friday hold of last week's openings, but the movie opened so low that the good word of mouth will make little difference.  Meanwhile, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) should hit its (still somewhat disappointing) $100M milestone on Sunday or early next week.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  The Weinstein Company continues to play its shell game with THE ARTIST, expanding again this weekend to counteract its shrinking per-theatre number:  this week, although the theatre count rose about 10%, the Friday gross was down 15%, translating into a 25% fall per-theatre.  The movie is unlikely to have a total gross much over $30M when the Oscars are awarded at the end of the month, despite what will be 3 months in theatres.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) held well and should be over $75M by Oscar time.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) fared less well, and may fall 40% this weekend.  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) lost about 20% of its theatres and will hope to still be meaningfully in the market in 3 weeks time.

LIMITED RELEASE:  A slow week:  the only significant arrival was the "real" opening (it played a week for Oscar consideration in December) of Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein), which should do around an OK $13K in each of 4 NY/LA theatres.

Next weekend brings the R-rated Denzel Washington thriller SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and the pre-Valentine's Day weepie THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony).  Also arriving is Warners' 3D JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND, which will have the challenge of facing off with the 3D return of 20th/Lucasfilm's STAR WARS EPISODE 1:  THE PHANTOM MENACE, which despite the fact that many have less-than-fond memories of it, is still an event.