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Showing posts with label chronicle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chronicle. Show all posts

THE SHOWBUZZDAILY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

2:23 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Hollywood Hearts this weekend.

OPENINGS:   It turned out that THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) was indeed slightly more frontloaded than SAFE HOUSE (Universal), but not by enough to rob it of 1st place.  Vow's massive $41.7M haul was higher than any opening weekend for a Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock or Katherine Heigl vehicle--ever.  (Cut to the board room at Screen Gems, where they're trying to figure out just how to do a Vow 2.)  Sony has another reason to be thrilled, too--they have Channing Tatum's 21 Jump Street opening next month.  Normally, one would say that Vow might get hurt by the similarly-aimed This Means War next weekend, but War has such bad buzz that it may not be much of a threat.  Meanwhile, Safe House's $39.3M is the 2d highest opening of Denzel Washington's career, and since its genre hits an international sweet spot, there's nothing but upside (and another sequel that seemingly can't happen, although never discount the inspiration--and desperation--of Hollywood execs).  Also celebrating today:  Ryan Reynolds, whose career was heading for life support after 2011's flops; the Safe House tally probably isn't much due to him, but in Hollywood, if you're in a hit, it's your hit.


Over in the 2d tier, the one genuinely frontloaded movie of the weekend was STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), as audiences, depending on their ages, either remembered or discovered just how bad it was.  (Even though Phantom Menace was the only opening to go down on Saturday, Fox is predicting it to have Sunday's lowest drop--so look for that $23M weekend number to be reduced tomorrow.)  JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), on the other hand, had a wonderfully robust 94% hike on Saturday, its $27.6M weekend total almost 25% higher than the $21M opening for the first Journey picture.  With the semi-arty The Secret World of Arrietty as the only family movie opening for Presidents Day weekend, Journey should hold up pretty well.

HOLDOVERS:  As noted yesterday, last Sunday's depressed Super Bowl Sunday grosses make this weekend's comparisons look artificially strong.  In a normal weekend, CHRONICLE (20th), THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) and BIG MIRACLE (Universal) would all be down over 50%, but only Woman (just barely) crossed that line this weekend.  Those 3, along with THE GREY (Open Road), RED TAILS (20th) and UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) are all headed for $50-65M totals.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Generally good holds for the pictures in general release, as THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), THE ARTIST (Weinstein) and HUGO (Paramount) all lost 20-30% of their theatres and went down under 25%.  The only big hit was for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which shed almost half its theatres and plummeted 60%.  A couple of nominees in smaller categories had modest expansions:  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) added 5 theatres for a total of 45 and went up a couple of percentage points, and PINA (IFC) almost doubled its theatres to 67 and had a nice 35% bump.  The bare 22% increase for W.E. (Weinstein), though, meant a big reduction in per-screen as it went from 4 to 17 theatres. IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics) had an OK start with a $9700 at 3, and surprise Best Animated Film nominee CHICO & RITA (GK) got a lot of curious eyeballs with a $27K opening in 1 NY theatre.j

LIMITED RELEASE:  Not much going on, apart from the Oscar nominees above.  RAMPART (Millenium) had a decent start with a $13K average in 5 theatres, and RETURN (Dada), a very tiny movie with excellent performances by Linda Cardellini as a returning Iraq vet and Michael Shannon (for once playing a normal human being) as her husband, had a $3500 average at 2. 


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THE SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

11:17 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




You're frontloaded!  No, you're frontloaded!

OPENINGS:  The movie audience has 3 main components--men, women, kids--and a weekend that offers a strong title for each one has a good chance of being successful.  The relatively low-budget THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) got off to a great start (too bad it's not a great movie), with $15.4M on Friday.  That's higher than the entire opening weekend for Rachel McAdams' last soap The Notebook (which ended up grossing $81M) and higher than opening day for Channing Tatum's last dip in the soap pool Dear John (also an $80M grosser).  Meanwhile, for the guys there was the (more expensive) SAFE HOUSE (Universal), also very strong with a $13.8M Friday.  Safe House looks like it'll be the 2d highest opener of Denzel Washington's entire career (behind only American Gangster), and even though we won't know until tomorrow (or Monday) which picture edged out the other for the weekend crown, they're both big hits.


Meanwhile, the kids weren't neglected.  STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) scored $8.7M on Friday, and JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners) wasn't far behind with $6.6M.  The consensus seems to be that Phantom will be more frontloaded with fanboys, but again this won't be determined for another day or two.

HOLDOVERS:  Note:  because of Super Bowl Sunday, all weekend-to-weekend drops will be artificially low this week.  Thanks to that, CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) are both likely to be down under 50% this weekend, although BIG MIRACLE (Universal), which just couldn't find a reason to exist, may cross that mark.  Longer-running titles are dropping theatres due to all the new product in the market, so they're mostly down 50+%.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  With the rush of the nomination announcements done, these pictures are losing theatres, but otherwise holding fairly well.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost about 22% of its theatres and should be down around 30% for the weekend, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) also shed 20% of its theatres and should drop about an equal amount at the boxoffice, and HUGO (Paramount) actually had the best hold, ejected from 30% of its theatres but down only around 20%.  The exception is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which lost almost half its theatres but is looking an ugly weekend drop of over 60%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major arrivals this week.  RAMPART (Millenium), which was unable to get a Best Actor nomination for Woody Harrelson, is headed for a mild $12K average in 5 theatres.  IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics), nominated for Foreign Film, should average around $7500 in 3.  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein) tried an expansion to little avail, and may not even get to a $3500 average in 17.

Next weekend the studios aren't offering much for the long Presidents Day holiday:  THIS MEANS WAR (20th), which had to postpone its Valentine's Day opening because it would have been crushed by The Vow (it's also the target of one of the most brutal Hollywood Reporter reviews in recent memory), and GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Columbia/Sony) with Nicolas Cage, that eternal mark of high quality.  Also in a mid-level release is Disney's release of the Japanese (dubbed) animation THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY.  


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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE Jan 30-Feb 5

1:46 PM | Labels: , , , , , ,

Five full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year's anemic pace but about even with the comparable period's average for the last several years.  The studio estimates for the films opening this weekend turned out to be very accurate.  Chronicle officially opened at #1 with $22,004,098 the first three days (compared to a studio estimate of $22,000,000 issued Sunday morning).  The Woman in Black was close behind at #2 with $20,874,072 (just under the studio estimate of $21,000,000).  Big Miracle opened in fourth place with $7,760,025 (9% below the $8,500,000 studio estimate from Universal).              


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between January 30 and February 5 grossed $143 million, up 39% from the same horrific week in 2011 and even with the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 26% ahead of 2011 but only 1% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films January 30-February 5
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #5      $103    $143    $143    +39%    + 0%

Year to Date $695    $873    $886    +28%    + 1%



Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 


Contraband $70 million (67 percentile)
Underworld Awakening $67 million (66 percentile)
Chronicle $65 million (65 percentile)
The Grey $59 million (60 percentile)

The Woman in Black $58 million (59 percentile) 
Red Tails $52 million (57 percentile)
Beauty and the Beast 3D $52 million (57 percentile)
The Devil Inside $48 million (54 percentile)

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close $36 million (43 percentile) 
The Artist $32 million (39 percentile) 
Joyful Noise $31 million (35 million) 
Big Miracle $28 million (31 percentile)
One for the Money $27 million (30 percentile) 
The Iron Lady $26 million (30 percentile)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $24 million (26 percentile) 
Haywire $22 million (23 percentile)  
Man on a Ledge $22 million (23 percentile) 


Weekend Predictions for February 10-12 should be posted late Wednesday.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY'S WEEKEND BOXOFFICE STUDIO SCORECARD

1:05 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Happy Voice/Smash Bowl, everyone!  (And go Giants!!!)

OPENINGS:  CHRONICLE (20th) is claiming bragging rights for the weekend over THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) by $1M.  But both films are assuming almost identical Super Bowl Sunday drops (69% and 67%, respectively), so the win will depend on whether one or the other faces more audience defection today, which we won't know until Monday.  In any case, this is--sorry--a super weekend for both studios (especially CBS Films, with its first real hit), each one's low-budget project now destined for profit.  On the other hand, even to reach its modest $8.5M estimate, BIG MIRACLE (Universal) will have to hit a very low 41% assumption for the Super Sunday drop.  This is based, no doubt, on the idea that kids will still go to matinees today, but since those kids will largely need parents to go with them, we'll see if the estimate holds.


HOLDOVERS:  THE GREY (Open Road) leads the way with a 52% drop to $9.5M.  The picture won't hit the highs of Neeson's previous action hits Taken ($140M) or Unknown ($64M), but considering its harder-to-sell genre, it's a nice success.  After that, UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony), ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) and RED TAILS (20th/Lucasfilm) are all grouped together with 50+% drops and weekend grosses of $5-5.6M.  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate), with a 44% drop that's the best among non-Oscar movies this weekend, will have to hope its good word of mouth translates into VOD and homevideo sales; it's too late for the theatrical boxoffice to mean much.  THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) is hovering at $99.9M and will hit its milestone Monday or Tuesday.  Other holiday pictures are shedding theatres as new openings arrive in the market, and won't get much higher than they are now.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein) purportedly has the best hold with a 22% drop, but since it significantly increased its theatre count, the decline is more like 30%.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), playing at 1500 more theatres than Artist, held very well with only a 28% drop for the weekend.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) was less impressive with a 44% decline.  HUGO (Paramount) has gotten a bit of a second wind, with only an 8% fall from last weekend (even adjusting for a small theatre expansion, it's down less than 15%).  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is slowing down, but $25-30M in the US for a biography of Margaret Thatcher ain't bad (and of course it would be boosted by a Meryl Streep win).

LIMITED RELEASES:  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein), timed to coincide with its director's halftime show and new album, showed little promise with a $11K per-theatre gross in 4 palaces.  The nomination-less A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics) lost a third of its theatres, but should still get above $5M, not bad for such esoteric subject matter.  ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside) is having a pretty good hold, down 22% at 245 theatres.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) is finding an audience, a 29% increase in theatre count (to 40) almost matched by a 22% weekend increase in gross. PINA (IFC) and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope) are both holding fairly well, with $5K averages in 40 and 13 theatres, respectively.  PARIAH (Focus), though, added 30% more theatres (to 19) but was down 20% for the weekend anyway.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 3-5

9:10 AM | Labels: , , , ,

The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in somewhat stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $96 million for the weekend, up a very strong 31% from last year's disaster weekend but down a touch (-3%) from the weekend's average for the past four years.  Chronicle appears posed to edge The Woman in Black for the top spot.  On Friday, Chronicle edged Woman in Black by over $300,000 ($8.625 million to $8.300 million), and on Saturday Chronicle beat Woman in Black by almost $700,000 ($10.200 million to $9.545 million).  Today with the Super Bowl being the main distraction both movies should do about the same low level of business ($3.175 million to $3.155 million).  Chronicle should beat Woman in Black by about $1 million ($22.0 to $21.0 million).  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Chronicle ($65 million), The Woman in Black ($58 million) and Big Miracle ($30 million). 

The second week movies have been adjusted:  The Grey ($59 million, down slightly), One for the Money ($27 million, steady), Man on a Ledge ($23 million, steady).  In its second wide-release week, The Artist ($32 million) has been adjusted downward.

Among the third week films, Underworld Awakening ($67 million, adjusted back down), Red Tails ($53 million, adjusted back down) and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close ($36 million, steady). 



February 3-5                        Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Chronicle                 (Fox)     $22.0             $ 65
The Woman in Black        (CBS)     $21.0             $ 58
The Grey            (Open Road)     $ 9.5   -52%      $ 59
Big Miracle               (Uni)     $ 8.5             $ 30
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $ 5.6   -55%      $ 67
One for the Money          (LG)     $ 5.2   -54%      $ 27
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $ 5.0   -52%      $ 53
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 4.6   -28%      $ 78
Man on a Ledge            (Sum)     $ 4.5   -44%      $ 23
Extremely Loud & Inc Close (WB)     $ 3.9   -44%      $ 36
Contraband                (Uni)     $ 3.5   -48%      $ 71
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 2.6   -23%      $ 32




Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  




Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $96 million total Friday-Sunday, up 31% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 3% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  The box office is certainly not as sick as it was last year, but remember these numbers are not anything to get too excited about.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #5


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $ 96  Chronicle $22, Woman in Black $21, Big Miracle $8
2011  $ 73  The Roommate $15, Sanctum $9
2010  $100  Dear John $30, From Paris with Love $8
2009  $131  He's Just Not That Into You $28, Coraline $17
2008  $ 90  Fool's Gold $22, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins $16

2008-11
Avg   $ 99



Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island from Warner Brothers, action thriller Safe House from Universal and the romantic drama The Vow from Sony open wide.  Also, 20th Century Fox will re-release Star Wars: Episode 1 The Phantom Menace in 3D.  These openings will be compared to Just Go With It ($30.5 million opening weekend), Justin Bieber: Never Say Never ($29.5 million), Gnomeo and Juliet ($25.4 million) and The Eagle ($8.7 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY WEEKEND BOXOFFICE REPORT

1:35 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


Based on the preliminary numbers at Deadline, the race between CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) is still too close to call at $21-22M each.  No matter who claims victory on Sunday morning, the final weekend result will depend on how the films are each treated by Super Bowl Sunday, and may not be settled until the release of actual numbers on Monday afternoon.


The preliminary figures have Chronicle on top by less than $1M through Saturday night, with a handsome 20% day-to-day increase claimed for Saturday.  Woman In Black is on its heels with a reported 18% Saturday increase.  The best Saturday bump actually belonged to BIG MIRACLE (Universal), not surprising since it caters to the family matinee audience--even with an 80% increase, though, its weekend total will only be around $8.5M.

There don't look to be any surprises in the holdovers among the Top 10, with UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) leading those at around $5.5-6M for the weekend, and the rest clustered in the $4.5-5M neighborhood.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!
 


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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE SCORECARD

12:52 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




A surprisingly strong start for 2 low-budget arrivals, although the upside is limited by tomorrow's Super Bowl.

OPENINGS:  CHRONICLE (20th) had a slight $350K edge over THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS Films) on Friday, and both are in frontloaded genres, appealing to young men and young women, respectively.  Young men are more likely to be otherwise occupied on Super Bowl Sunday, so Woman may have a small edge for the weekend, but both movies are success stories, with modest budgets (in the case of Woman, a modest acquisition cost) and minimal marketing by big-studio standards.  Chronicle will put director Josh Trank and screenwriter Max Landis (son of National Lampoon's Animal House/American Werewolf in London director John Landis) on the map; Woman proves that Daniel Radcliffe hasn't lost his place on that map, even without Ron and Hermoine.  The news was less good for Universal's BIG MIRACLE, a more costly production that didn't spark with audiences, and is unlikely to get anywhere near its $40M (not including marketing) budget.


HOLDOVERS:  Because of Super Sunday, THE GREY (Open Road) will probably fall around 50%, to $9-10M.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) will likely take a bigger hit, although with its female audience, it may be less affected by football--it doesn't matter much, though, since percentage points aside, the movie is a flop.  (Katherine Heigl's people were quick to announce 2 new projects for her this week, albeit notably wacky ones:  a thriller where she plays someone who can't distinguish people's faces, and thus doesn't know when a murderer is standing in front of her, and a detective story in which puppets are alive and co-exist with humans, and a puppet murder has to be solved.  Uhhh... okay.)  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) actually had the best Friday hold of last week's openings, but the movie opened so low that the good word of mouth will make little difference.  Meanwhile, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) should hit its (still somewhat disappointing) $100M milestone on Sunday or early next week.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  The Weinstein Company continues to play its shell game with THE ARTIST, expanding again this weekend to counteract its shrinking per-theatre number:  this week, although the theatre count rose about 10%, the Friday gross was down 15%, translating into a 25% fall per-theatre.  The movie is unlikely to have a total gross much over $30M when the Oscars are awarded at the end of the month, despite what will be 3 months in theatres.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) held well and should be over $75M by Oscar time.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) fared less well, and may fall 40% this weekend.  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) lost about 20% of its theatres and will hope to still be meaningfully in the market in 3 weeks time.

LIMITED RELEASE:  A slow week:  the only significant arrival was the "real" opening (it played a week for Oscar consideration in December) of Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein), which should do around an OK $13K in each of 4 NY/LA theatres.

Next weekend brings the R-rated Denzel Washington thriller SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and the pre-Valentine's Day weepie THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony).  Also arriving is Warners' 3D JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND, which will have the challenge of facing off with the 3D return of 20th/Lucasfilm's STAR WARS EPISODE 1:  THE PHANTOM MENACE, which despite the fact that many have less-than-fond memories of it, is still an event.

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FRIDAY FEBRUARY 3 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:10 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The fifth weekend of 2012 is much better than the same weekend last year, but it's still somewhat below an "average" weekend for this time of year, looking at the past four years.  Chronicle and The Woman in Black are battling for #1, with each trying to make it to a $20 million opening weekend (not easy to do with the Super Bowl on Sunday).     

Chronicle is coming in above forecast, pulling in $8.65 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $15.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  Conventional wisdom is that the more male-skewing Chronicle will be passed by Woman in Black on Super Bowl Sunday, but we are projecting that both films will be hammered by the most-watched television event of the year and Chronicle will narrowly win the weekend with a superior Saturday.  Chronicle is headed for a preliminary $61 million total domestic. 


The Woman in Black is also beating our prediction: earning $8.3 million Friday for an estimated $19.7 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $15 million prediction.  The horror thriller starring Harry Potter's Daniel Radcliffe is headed for a preliminary $55 million domestic. 

Big Miracle is hitting its very modest expectation: a small $2.3 million Friday for $7.9 million this weekend, equal to the $8 million forecast.  Big Miracle is on track for only $29 million total domestic.

The Grey is the best holdover film, on track to drop 53% to $9.3 million in its second weekend (shy of our $10+ million forecast). 

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
February 3-5, 2012      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final
Chronicle (Fox)          [$15.5]    $20.4   $ 8.7     $ 61
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$15.0]    $19.7   $ 8.3     $ 55
The Grey (Open Road)     [$10.5]    $ 9.3   $ 3.1     $ 59
Big Miracle (Uni)        [$ 8.0]    $ 7.9   $ 2.3     $ 29
One for the Money (LG)   [$ 6.0]    $ 5.4   $ 1.7     $ 27  
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ 5.8]    $ 5.1   $ 1.7     $ 66
Red Tails (Fox)          [$ 5.4]    $ 4.8   $ 1.5     $ 52
The Descendants (Fox)    [$----]    $ 4.7   $ 1.4     $ 78 
Man on a Ledge (Sum)     [$ 4.0]    $ 4.4   $ 1.5     $ 23
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$ 4.3]    $ 4.0   $ 1.2     $ 37 



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $92 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 6% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  The box office is certainly not as sick as it was last year, but remember these numbers are not anything to get excited about.  Just look again at the table above and glance at the right column (the estimated final domestic grosses for each film).  A lot of middling performers, with nothing close to $100 million movies (the highest being $78 million among recent wide releases).          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #5


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $ 92  Chronicle $20, Woman in Black $20, Big Miracle $8
2011  $ 73  The Roommate $15, Sanctum $9
2010  $100  Dear John $30, From Paris with Love $8
2009  $131  He's Just Not That Into You $28, Coraline $17
2008  $ 90  Fool's Gold $22, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins $16

2008-11
Avg   $ 99


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY EARLY FRIDAY BOXOFFICE

12:53 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,



According to Deadline's preliminary numbers, it's going to be a stronger than expected weekend for both CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS).  Keeping in mind that Sunday will be a very slow day at the boxoffice due to the Super Bowl (especially for movies aimed at a male audience), it seems as though Woman In Black may take the lead and establish itself as CBS Films's first significant success (not to mention proof for Daniel Radcliffe that there's life beyond Harry Potter), with a $8-9M Friday that should mean around $20M for the weekend.  Chronicle's Friday may be equal to or better than Woman's, but it's likely to feel the brunt of Super Bowl Sunday and could end up a bit below $20M for the weekend--still an excellent number for a relatively low-budget, no-star project.  BIG MIRACLE (Universal), with a $2-2.5M Friday, is looking like a weaker $8M or so by Sunday.


THE GREY (Open Road) will lead the holdovers with a 50-55% weekend drop to around $9-10M.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) is heading for a more serious 60+% fall to $4.5M, which is also where RED TAILS (20th/Lucasfilm) and MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) are likely to be.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!
 

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SHOWBUZZDAILY REVIEW: "Chronicle"

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CHRONICLE - Worth A Ticket -  "Found Footage" That Deserves to Be Found

Over the past decade, audience hunger for "reality"--the word very much in quotation marks--has engulfed much of popular cultture, from YouTube videos to self-produced songs, from tweets to television series and even cable networks built around people playing manipulated versions of "themselves."  In movies, the trend has led to an increase in heavily improvised indie comedies and dramas, and also to the genre of "found footage," films that are basically scripted, but which present themselves as being shot by the amateur participants themselves.  The latter have existed mostly in the field of horror, kicked off by the giant hit The Blair Witch Project, and followed by, among others, Cloverdale, the Paranormal Activity franchise and this year's The Devil Inside.  (The genre reaches a meta level with the found footage compendium V/H/S, which premiered at Sundance.)


The new CHRONICLE, while playing even more fast and loose with any logical rules of "real" footage, at least provides a new twist on the form, since it inhabits the superpower genre rather than horror.  The brisk 83-minute story (including credits), directed by Josh Trank and written by Max Landis (from a story by him and Trank), is very basic:  3 teens--high-strung loner Andrew (Dane DeHaan), his nice-guy cousin Matt (Alex Russell) and popular Steve (Michael B. Jordan)--explore a hole in the ground one night after a party, and after they've touched some unexplained glowing thing down there, they find that they've acquired the ability to move objects with their minds and, before long, that they can fly.  

The center of the tale is Andrew, who has a horrific homelife (dying mother, abusive father)--he's the one supposedly carrying the camera through almost all of the movie (along the way he upgrades to incongruously high-quality equipment and learns how to make it all levitate, at which point the shots become far smoother and more professional).  At first, their powers are a pure thrill for the guys, who use their telekinesis for pranks and take joy rides in the sky.  But then Andrew starts wielding them to express his anger and frustration, and before long he's turned into an adolescent super-villain, tearing up the streets of Seattle. 

Chronicle's story doesn't offer much, and the found footage genre makes serious characterization all but impossible.  But this is one case where the conceit really works to the movie's benefit.  Even though we've seen all these stunts and CG effects before in massive franchise movies, watching them seemingly tossed off in this casual, supposedly "amateur" way makes them feel new.  (The reported $12M budget, while tiny compared to a comic-book epic, also isn't the $1M spent on Paranormal Activity and its ilk, and the actual cinematography is by veteran John Bailey.)

Trank and Landis make a lot of smart decisions in Chronicle:  the movie doesn't overstay its welcome, and  aside from a couple of chatty references to Schopenhauer, Plato, and the concept of free will, it doesn't try to be more than the modest thriller it is.  It delivers a compact, original take on a familiar story, and it holds together just about as long as it needs to.



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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS February 3-5

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The fifth weekend of the year should generate about $84 million for the top 12 films -- up 15% from last year's comparable weekend but down a similar percentage from a "normal" weekend this time of year.  Three new films open this weekend to positive reviews, but none of the three should gross more than $50 million over the long haul domestically.           


Opening at over 2,800 theaters, Chronicle from 20th Century Fox should average an okay $5,600 per theater (for $15.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics on RottenTomatoes are so far very supportive of this "found footage" sci-fi thriller: 85% positive reviews.  Chronicle is on track for a preliminary $47 million domestically.        

Opening in about 2,700 theaters, the horror thriller The Woman in Black from CBS Films (starring Daniel Radcliffe) should average a similar $5,500 per theater ($15 million Friday-Sunday).  Critics have been supportive: 71% positive reviews so far, particularly good for a horror film.  The Woman in Black is headed for a total domestic gross of $43 million.

In over 1,900 theaters, animal lovers can look forward to the save-the-whale drama Big Miracle from Universal, which should average a soft $4,100 per theater ($8 million from Friday-Sunday).  Critical reviews are also running positive (71% positive so far), making it a rare weekend where three wide-release films are endorsed by the nation's critics.  But good reviews don't always translate to big openings:  Big Miracle is on track for a final tally of $29 million domestic.  The positive reviews, however, might indicate lower than average declines in weekends two and three. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 3-5                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Chronicle                Fox  PG13  85%      $15.5     $ 47
The Woman in Black       CBS  PG13  71%      $15.0     $ 43
Big Miracle              Uni  PG    71%      $ 8.0     $ 29


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly normal declines for the returning films, with Liam Neeson's The Grey the only film with a shot for a weekend over $10 million.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 3-5                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



The Grey                 Open     -48%      $10.5     $ 63
One for the Money        LG       -48%      $ 6.0     $ 26
Underworld Awakening     Sony     -53%      $ 5.8     $ 70
Red Tails                Fox      -48%      $ 5.4     $ 57
Extremely Loud & Incred. WB       -39%      $ 4.3     $ 38
Man on a Ledge           Sum      -50%      $ 4.0     $ 21

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $99 million total, ranking 41st of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $73 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $100 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $84 million, up 15% from this weekend last year but down 14% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years


2/4/11

 The Roommate SONY PG13 Minka Kelly Leighton Meester 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $15
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $39  Actual: $37
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $3

 Sanctum UNI R Ioan Gruffudd  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $30  Actual: $23
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $56

2/5/10

 Dear John SONY PG13 Amanda Seyfried Channing Tatum 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $19  Actual: $30
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $89  Actual: $80
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $32

 From Paris with Love LG R John Travolta Jonathan Rhys Meyers 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $29  Actual: $24
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28

 Crazy Heart FOX R Jeff Bridges Colin Farrell 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $34  Actual: $39
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $7



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

###

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SHOWBUZZDAILY FRIDAY STUDIO SCORECARD

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Behold Liam Neeson, King of January.

OPENINGS:  THE GREY (Open Road) will easily take the weekend, albeit at a lower level than prior Neeson early-year thrillers.  Given that this one features killer wolves and hypothermia rather than gunfights and car chases, that's not unexpected, and the picture should hit a decent profit.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) may have outperformed pre-opening predictions, but its $11-12M opening is still pretty dismal (the lowest of Katherine Heigl's starring career), and because of online discount ticket offers keyed to opening day, its Friday number may prove to be unusually frontloaded.  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) is an out-and-out flop, and yet more proof that "stars" from special-effects-laden franchises can't necessarily open movies outside those franchises.


HOLDOVERS:  Everything is headed for a 45-55% normal range drop, with BEAUTY AND THE BEAST 3D (Disney) and MI4 (Paramount) on the low end, and HAYWIRE (Relativity) on the high.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  It was the week for the anointed films to expand their runs (except for Warners' EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, which had opened wide last week and dropped only 30% in its 2d weekend).  None of the expansions were particularly impressive:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), still in just 897 theatres, will barely top a $3500 per-theatre average, while THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), upped to 2001 houses, won't go much higher than a $3K average.   THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is similarly unimpressive with a $2500 average at 1244, and HUGO (Paramount) didn't find much interest in its expansion back to 965 theatres with a $2300 average.  Despite Gary Oldman's Best Actor nomination, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY (Focus) lost almost half of its theatres and could manage only a $2500 average at 410, and ALBERT NOBBS (Roadside) didn't get much mileage out of its nominations for Glenn Close and Janet McTeer, expanding to 246 theatres for a $2800 average.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major openings.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), which couldn't land a nomination for Tilda Swinton, added 3 theatres for a decent $6K average in 10, while PARIAH (Focus) lost a third of its theatres and won't do much more than a $3K average in 14.

Next weekend is the Super Bowl, traditionally a weak moviegoing weekend, so the pickings will be lean.  Fox will pursue teens with the "found footage" sci-fi CHRONICLE, Universal targets kids with the save-the-whaler BIG MIRACLE, and CBS Films will try to gather what's left with the old-fashioned ghost story WOMAN IN BLACK, starring Daniel Radcliffe.

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