Movie Box Review

Now the only question is when they announce the start of  pre-production on LORAX 2.

OPENINGS:  It turned out THE LORAX (Universal) wasn't frontloaded at all.  Quite the contrary, its 80% Saturday bump put the movie through the roof, a triumph of great marketing over cruddy filmmaking.  Lorax is currently the 3d highest March opening ever, but only $185K behind 300 at #2, so even a slight overperformance on Sunday could lift it up.  PROJECT X (Warners) slipped a bit on Saturday, but even if its Sunday is overestimated, it should still be safely over $20M for the weekend, a very good score for a relatively low-budget studio release.  (The result, unfortunately, will be more lousy "found-footage" movies.)

HOLDOVERS:  Thanks to a nice spread of genres in the Top 10, most of the older movies are holding quite well.  The only 3 movies in the Top 12 to dip more than 45% were JOURNEY 2 (Warners), which was direct competition for Lorax, GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) with a 55% drop that was in keeping with Tyler Perry's pictures, and GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), which was already mid-collapse.  Particularly notable were the tiny respective drops for SAFE HOUSE (Universal) - 34%, THIS MEANS WAR (20th) - 33%, and the (deservedly) much-maligned GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) - 36%.

OSCAR WINNERS:  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), the 2d least popular Best Picture winner of the last quarter-century (and the lowest among films still in theatrical release when the awards were given out) raised its post-awards theatre count by 80% and could only manage a 34% bump.  And even that number is shaky, because Artist is claiming by far the lowest Sunday decline of the weekend's top movies, so it may well slipi down (and fall out of the Top 10) tomorrow.  Similarly, its stablemate THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) is claiming a 30% weekend increase that relies on a tiny estimated Sunday drop.  Back in the non-Weinstein world, THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost many of its theatres and fell 36%, and HUGO (Paramount) dropped 14%.  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) tripled its theatres off its Foreign Language Film win, and gratifyingly went over the $1M mark for the weekend in 243 houses.  

LIMITED RELEASES:  BEING FLYNN (Focus) created little excitement with a $11K average at only 4 theatres, and TIM & ERIC'S BILLION DOLLAR MOVIE (Magnolia) could only get to a $4K average in 24.    IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics) lost the Foreign-Language Oscar but tried increasing its theatre count by 50% anyway--the result was a 17% drop for the weekend.  WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Oscilloscope), another picture that was hoping for Oscar love it didn't get, more than doubled its theatres to 40, and averaged a decent $3300.  

As Hollywood prepares to honor its best (well, this year... maybe not so much), an undistinguished group of arrivals dominate the boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is claiming the lowest Sunday decline for any adult-skewing picture in the Top 10, ignoring the usual Oscar Day decline (even though the film had the lowest Saturday bump of any of them).  That means the weekend's final number may be closer to $24M.  There's probably not much gas in the tank for future weeks, but a $60M total for a picture that cost $13M (albeit with much more expensive marketing) is clearly a win.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit)  is Tyler Perry's lowest opening ever (excluding Daddy's Little Girls, which opened on a Wednesday).  That probably doesn't mean much in terms of his overall franchise (especially since he has a Madea movie coming out next), but may give concern to his bid for a non-franchise (well, new franchise) success playing a detective in I, Alex Cross later this year.

Bad news for Jennifer Aniston, too:  WANDERLUST (Universal) is her lowest-ever opening for a starring vehicle.  (Paul Rudd isn't really seen as someone whose name alone opens movies--his hits have either been concept-driven (Role Models) or buddy movies with strong co-stars (Dinner For Schmucks)--but this certainly doesn't move him up in the ranks.)  Another couple of losers and it may be time for Aniston to take a hard look at returning to TV.  The best news for Amanda Seyfried is that in a couple of weeks, GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) will be a dim memory--but even though it's ridiculous to put her in direct competition with Rachel McAdams or any other particular actress, she does need another Dear John-sized hit in the near future if she's not going to fall onto the heap of lovely ex-TV actresses who couldn't hack it on the big screen.

HOLDOVERS:  JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) have real legs, although in Arrietty's case, that won't translate to much of a total gross.  SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) (which went over $100M, the first-ever for Screen Gems) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) all held well.  GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), of course collapsed.  So did PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), which now seems unlikely to reach $50M--presumably Fox will do anything George Lucas tells them to, but one has to wonder about the enthusiasm for re-releasing the rest of the prequel trilogy in 3D when 3D TV and homevideo are still in their infancy and there's little ancillary value to be had.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Only a few of the major nominees are still in wide release.  THE ARTIST (Weinstein), in anticipation of its big wins tonight, was the only one to add theatres, and had a nice weekend bump.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) and HUGO (Paramount), in anticipation of their big losses, dropped theatres and had modest declines.  (Hugo is being released on homevideo in a few days.)  Sony Classics widened a couple of their Best Foreign Film nominees:  probable winner A SEPARATION did very well, increasing theatre count by around 50% and boxoffice by 36%, while IN DARKNESS wasn't quite as strong, with a similar rise in theatre count but only a 11% boost at the boxoffice.

Enjoy the Sacha Baron Cohen Publicity Tour Oscars tonight, everyone!  We'll have plenty of coverage on The Artist's anointment after the fact.

According to Deadline, ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) is reporting a mild 5% Saturday bump.  That's modest, but still less frontloaded than The Expendables' 10% drop on its 2d day, and if the number holds, could mean a $24M+ weekend.  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is looking better with around a 30% Saturday increase, comparing favorably with the 15% bump The Family That Preys (Tyler Perry's previous low opener) had on its first Saturday, and suggesting a $17M weekend.

After that, it doesn't matter much.  Percentage-wise, WANDERLUST (Universal) had a good 43% Saturday increase, but that still only brought it to $3M for the day, on its way to a irretrievable $7M opening.  And even that looks good compared to GONE (Summit/Lionsgate), which could only manage $2M on Saturday on its way to a weekend that might not hit $5M.

Among holdovers, JOURNEY 2 (Warners) and THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY (Disney) both took full advantage of the Saturday matinee audience, doubling their Friday numbers.  So did GHOST RIDER 2 (Sony), although its Friday was so dismal that the 2d weekend gross will still be down 60%.  The movies aimed at adults--SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th)--had 50-60% Saturday bumps, as per the norm.  Patterns suggest that Oscar Sunday will bring a larger-than-usual 40-50% drop for most pictures, regardless of genre, as people make plans for the big night.  (Of course, the size of this particular Oscar night is open to question, so that may moderate the declines.)

Navy SEALs shoot up the Friday boxoffice.

OPENINGS:  The very aggressive marketing for ACT OF VALOR (Relativity) made it seem like it was a patriotic duty to see the film, and successfully hid the fact that it's mostly a sub-par B action movie.  The question now is whether its quality will catch up with it (or not).  GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit) is Tyler Perry's lowest wide-release opening Friday ever at $5.6M (Daddy's Little Girls opened on a Wednesday), but not to worry--Perry will have a new Madea comedy out later this year.

Although daily numbers aren't available for her earliest vehicles, WANDERLUST (Universal), with a 2.2M Friday, also seems to be the biggest flop of Jennifer Aniston's starring career, let alone for one that pairs her with another big name like Paul Rudd.  Aniston has had something of a charmed movie career, considering the low quality of many of her pictures, but her luck may be running out.  GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) is just sad at $1.7M, and should send Amanda Seyfried on a search for the next half-decent rom-com or soap opera script that comes her way.

HOLDOVERS:  THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony), SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and SECRET WORLD OF ARIETTY (Disney) are all sustaining well, but nothing is holding like JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), which is clearly pleasing its target audiences. The only thing that could keep it from beating the $102M US gross of the first Journey is next weekend's increased competition.  GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Sony) collapsed, and STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) continued to do so as well--it's starting to look like Phantom Menace may not even get to $50M, although it'll still put plenty of midichlorians in George Lucas's pocket.  

OSCAR NOMINEES:  As THE ARTIST (Weinstein) prepares for its coronation, it added about 20% more theatres and took a nice tick upward.  HUGO (Paramount) lost about 10% of its screens, but also went up a bit.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), on the other hand, lost about a third of its theatres, and was somewhat down.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No notable openings or expansions this weekend, as the art-house audience is presumably occupied with Oscar Day.

NEXT WEEKEND:  March is unusually packed with event movies this year, and first up is THE LORAX (Universal), which the studio has been marketing as an all-quadrant tentpole, with spots aiming at kids (Dr. Seuss), teens (Zac Efron and Taylor Swift) and adults (Danny DeVito and Betty White)--including a fairly heavy ESPN push--and all of that doesn't even count the giant promo deals with a car company and restaurant chain.  A different sort of event is PROJECT X (Warners), an R-rated  "found footage" version of The Hangover (and produced by its director, as every promo is happy to tell you) about a teen party that goes very wild.  Also arriving is the year's first substantial limited release, Paul Weitz's BEING FLYNN (Focus), which is riding some good early buzz for its performances from Robert DeNiro and Paul Dano.

Hollywood Hearts this weekend.

OPENINGS:   It turned out that THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) was indeed slightly more frontloaded than SAFE HOUSE (Universal), but not by enough to rob it of 1st place.  Vow's massive $41.7M haul was higher than any opening weekend for a Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock or Katherine Heigl vehicle--ever.  (Cut to the board room at Screen Gems, where they're trying to figure out just how to do a Vow 2.)  Sony has another reason to be thrilled, too--they have Channing Tatum's 21 Jump Street opening next month.  Normally, one would say that Vow might get hurt by the similarly-aimed This Means War next weekend, but War has such bad buzz that it may not be much of a threat.  Meanwhile, Safe House's $39.3M is the 2d highest opening of Denzel Washington's career, and since its genre hits an international sweet spot, there's nothing but upside (and another sequel that seemingly can't happen, although never discount the inspiration--and desperation--of Hollywood execs).  Also celebrating today:  Ryan Reynolds, whose career was heading for life support after 2011's flops; the Safe House tally probably isn't much due to him, but in Hollywood, if you're in a hit, it's your hit.

Over in the 2d tier, the one genuinely frontloaded movie of the weekend was STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th), as audiences, depending on their ages, either remembered or discovered just how bad it was.  (Even though Phantom Menace was the only opening to go down on Saturday, Fox is predicting it to have Sunday's lowest drop--so look for that $23M weekend number to be reduced tomorrow.)  JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), on the other hand, had a wonderfully robust 94% hike on Saturday, its $27.6M weekend total almost 25% higher than the $21M opening for the first Journey picture.  With the semi-arty The Secret World of Arrietty as the only family movie opening for Presidents Day weekend, Journey should hold up pretty well.

HOLDOVERS:  As noted yesterday, last Sunday's depressed Super Bowl Sunday grosses make this weekend's comparisons look artificially strong.  In a normal weekend, CHRONICLE (20th), THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) and BIG MIRACLE (Universal) would all be down over 50%, but only Woman (just barely) crossed that line this weekend.  Those 3, along with THE GREY (Open Road), RED TAILS (20th) and UNDERWORLD AWAKENING (Screen Gems/Sony) are all headed for $50-65M totals.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  Generally good holds for the pictures in general release, as THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), THE ARTIST (Weinstein) and HUGO (Paramount) all lost 20-30% of their theatres and went down under 25%.  The only big hit was for EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which shed almost half its theatres and plummeted 60%.  A couple of nominees in smaller categories had modest expansions:  A SEPARATION (Sony Classics) added 5 theatres for a total of 45 and went up a couple of percentage points, and PINA (IFC) almost doubled its theatres to 67 and had a nice 35% bump.  The bare 22% increase for W.E. (Weinstein), though, meant a big reduction in per-screen as it went from 4 to 17 theatres. IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics) had an OK start with a $9700 at 3, and surprise Best Animated Film nominee CHICO & RITA (GK) got a lot of curious eyeballs with a $27K opening in 1 NY theatre.j

LIMITED RELEASE:  Not much going on, apart from the Oscar nominees above.  RAMPART (Millenium) had a decent start with a $13K average in 5 theatres, and RETURN (Dada), a very tiny movie with excellent performances by Linda Cardellini as a returning Iraq vet and Michael Shannon (for once playing a normal human being) as her husband, had a $3500 average at 2. 

You're frontloaded!  No, you're frontloaded!

OPENINGS:  The movie audience has 3 main components--men, women, kids--and a weekend that offers a strong title for each one has a good chance of being successful.  The relatively low-budget THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) got off to a great start (too bad it's not a great movie), with $15.4M on Friday.  That's higher than the entire opening weekend for Rachel McAdams' last soap The Notebook (which ended up grossing $81M) and higher than opening day for Channing Tatum's last dip in the soap pool Dear John (also an $80M grosser).  Meanwhile, for the guys there was the (more expensive) SAFE HOUSE (Universal), also very strong with a $13.8M Friday.  Safe House looks like it'll be the 2d highest opener of Denzel Washington's entire career (behind only American Gangster), and even though we won't know until tomorrow (or Monday) which picture edged out the other for the weekend crown, they're both big hits.

Meanwhile, the kids weren't neglected.  STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (20th) scored $8.7M on Friday, and JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners) wasn't far behind with $6.6M.  The consensus seems to be that Phantom will be more frontloaded with fanboys, but again this won't be determined for another day or two.

HOLDOVERS:  Note:  because of Super Bowl Sunday, all weekend-to-weekend drops will be artificially low this week.  Thanks to that, CHRONICLE (20th) and THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS) are both likely to be down under 50% this weekend, although BIG MIRACLE (Universal), which just couldn't find a reason to exist, may cross that mark.  Longer-running titles are dropping theatres due to all the new product in the market, so they're mostly down 50+%.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  With the rush of the nomination announcements done, these pictures are losing theatres, but otherwise holding fairly well.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) lost about 22% of its theatres and should be down around 30% for the weekend, THE ARTIST (Weinstein) also shed 20% of its theatres and should drop about an equal amount at the boxoffice, and HUGO (Paramount) actually had the best hold, ejected from 30% of its theatres but down only around 20%.  The exception is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners), which lost almost half its theatres but is looking an ugly weekend drop of over 60%.

LIMITED RELEASES:  No major arrivals this week.  RAMPART (Millenium), which was unable to get a Best Actor nomination for Woody Harrelson, is headed for a mild $12K average in 5 theatres.  IN DARKNESS (Sony Classics), nominated for Foreign Film, should average around $7500 in 3.  Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein) tried an expansion to little avail, and may not even get to a $3500 average in 17.

Next weekend the studios aren't offering much for the long Presidents Day holiday:  THIS MEANS WAR (20th), which had to postpone its Valentine's Day opening because it would have been crushed by The Vow (it's also the target of one of the most brutal Hollywood Reporter reviews in recent memory), and GHOST RIDER:  SPIRIT OF VENGEANCE (Columbia/Sony) with Nicolas Cage, that eternal mark of high quality.  Also in a mid-level release is Disney's release of the Japanese (dubbed) animation THE SECRET WORLD OF ARRIETTY.  

Both The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline have preliminary (and somewhat divergent) estimates for Friday and the weekend boxoffice, and it looks like this will be the second consecutive weekend with a down-to-the-wire finish.  Whoever comes out ahead when final numbers are announced, though, it's already clear that this will be another unexpectedly robust session at the multiplex.

Depending on the source, THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony) made $12.5M (THR) or $15M (Deadline) on Friday, which should mean a weekend in the $32-37M range.  Tracking had been through the roof for this pre-Valentine's weekend soap, so this isn't a tremendous surprise.

Hollywood's bonus, though, is that SAFE HOUSE (Universal) is performing far above estimates, with a $11.5 (THR) or $14M (Deadline) Friday, which should mean $30-35M for the weekend.  One can speculate that The Vow, with its reliance on a young female audience, may be more frontloaded than the R-rated Safe House, which could give the latter a bit of an edge for the weekend title, but that's just conjecture at this point.

With Vow for women and Safe House for guys, that left an opening for a kids' movie, and say hello (again) to STAR WARS EPISODE I:  THE PHANTOM MENACE 3D (Fox), which is proving again that audiences have no problem with paying to see old favorites if there's a 3D tweak (good news for Titanic 3D, coming soon to a theatre near you).  Phantom Menace did $9M (Deadline) or $10M (THR) Friday, heading for a $23-27M weekend for George Lucas' bulging bank accounts.

The odd movie out was JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND (Warners), which had the temerity to tangle with the Skywalkers, and earned $4.5 (THR) or $6.5M (Deadline) on Friday.  Even this isn't bad for 4th place, as it looks like a $15-20M weekend.  

A surprisingly strong start for 2 low-budget arrivals, although the upside is limited by tomorrow's Super Bowl.

OPENINGS:  CHRONICLE (20th) had a slight $350K edge over THE WOMAN IN BLACK (CBS Films) on Friday, and both are in frontloaded genres, appealing to young men and young women, respectively.  Young men are more likely to be otherwise occupied on Super Bowl Sunday, so Woman may have a small edge for the weekend, but both movies are success stories, with modest budgets (in the case of Woman, a modest acquisition cost) and minimal marketing by big-studio standards.  Chronicle will put director Josh Trank and screenwriter Max Landis (son of National Lampoon's Animal House/American Werewolf in London director John Landis) on the map; Woman proves that Daniel Radcliffe hasn't lost his place on that map, even without Ron and Hermoine.  The news was less good for Universal's BIG MIRACLE, a more costly production that didn't spark with audiences, and is unlikely to get anywhere near its $40M (not including marketing) budget.

HOLDOVERS:  Because of Super Sunday, THE GREY (Open Road) will probably fall around 50%, to $9-10M.  ONE FOR THE MONEY (Lionsgate/Summit) will likely take a bigger hit, although with its female audience, it may be less affected by football--it doesn't matter much, though, since percentage points aside, the movie is a flop.  (Katherine Heigl's people were quick to announce 2 new projects for her this week, albeit notably wacky ones:  a thriller where she plays someone who can't distinguish people's faces, and thus doesn't know when a murderer is standing in front of her, and a detective story in which puppets are alive and co-exist with humans, and a puppet murder has to be solved.  Uhhh... okay.)  MAN ON A LEDGE (Summit/Lionsgate) actually had the best Friday hold of last week's openings, but the movie opened so low that the good word of mouth will make little difference.  Meanwhile, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony) should hit its (still somewhat disappointing) $100M milestone on Sunday or early next week.

OSCAR NOMINEES:  The Weinstein Company continues to play its shell game with THE ARTIST, expanding again this weekend to counteract its shrinking per-theatre number:  this week, although the theatre count rose about 10%, the Friday gross was down 15%, translating into a 25% fall per-theatre.  The movie is unlikely to have a total gross much over $30M when the Oscars are awarded at the end of the month, despite what will be 3 months in theatres.  THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight) held well and should be over $75M by Oscar time.  EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warners) fared less well, and may fall 40% this weekend.  THE IRON LADY (Weinstein) lost about 20% of its theatres and will hope to still be meaningfully in the market in 3 weeks time.

LIMITED RELEASE:  A slow week:  the only significant arrival was the "real" opening (it played a week for Oscar consideration in December) of Madonna's W.E. (Weinstein), which should do around an OK $13K in each of 4 NY/LA theatres.

Next weekend brings the R-rated Denzel Washington thriller SAFE HOUSE (Universal) and the pre-Valentine's Day weepie THE VOW (Screen Gems/Sony).  Also arriving is Warners' 3D JOURNEY 2:  THE MYSTERIOUS ISLAND, which will have the challenge of facing off with the 3D return of 20th/Lucasfilm's STAR WARS EPISODE 1:  THE PHANTOM MENACE, which despite the fact that many have less-than-fond memories of it, is still an event.